burgertime Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 still not seeing how the Euro looks good to everyone... seems really warm to me The models always under do the cold with CAD and with that much moisture you would more than likely get enough dynamic cooling to get snow. For your backyard it might not be great but looked good for mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 The models always under do the cold with CAD and with that much moisture you would more than likely get enough dynamic cooling to get snow. For your backyard it might not be great but looked good for mine. Yep, I would not focus too much on the temps at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Rain...even 33 and rain would be a welcomed change FYP to insert the western I'm starting to forget what rain is like around here Dang, Darlin' I am truely sorry I'm just thinking you and I are together in this desert, and wasn't thinking of S.C. when I said Carolina. It's Robert and them in NC, that got mad at us for getting all the rain for years, and now they've got it, lol. I keep saying once the main rain comes south we all get in on some frozen fun. As long as the rain runs the Tenn Valley, only the northern fringe will get the hits. The first gulf storm sets the stage and then, whammo..out go the lights I mean, think about it. When Robert had less rain, he got so much snow it broke his trees! And Lookout. He had a rain shield over him that couldn't be beat, and he got like 10 inches, or something. It just snowed, and snowed over his house while the sun was out over here, and I'm watching my stinkin' inch melt! I rest my case. Rain gets south, we all win. Tony Now wait a minute....by that logic you and I ought to be eat up with snow. Hmmmm......... Oh, well....it is 38 here, and with low dew points I could be having snow right now, if some rain was coming in...... Yep, ok, rain needs to come to us, you and me It's already cold enough, almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Dang, Darlin' I am truely sorry I'm just thinking you and I are together in this desert, and wasn't thinking of S.C. when I said Carolina. It's Robert and them in NC, that got mad at us for getting all the rain for years, and now they've got it, lol. You painted a good picture there Tony. Now if I could divert the rains there, I would. I do think you're about to step up in the rains but it still looks like the lion's share will be just north, but probably will get you more than lately. Same for Columbia. Beyond the Friday time frame, anything can happen. I'd lean toward more of the same...southwest systems that take a northeast track, similar to this one, maybe slightly further south. Then after that, something might cutoff more south toward Texas or Euro looking, but that could change to be anywhere really, from back in the Southwest to the Ohio Valley. It would be something to get it dropping really far south. The further south, the better for chances of the white stuff. Its fun to have something to look at atleast temporarily, but the models might lose it soon. But as I stated several times, be wary when models show zonal, flat and boring, because they've done that a lot, and its' anything but! Numerous waves diving and amplifying. Its like playing plinko, where they land you just don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 it will be fun just hope we don't have the 10 day storm then within 48 hours no cold air At this point, I'm just happy with a 10 day storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 At this point, I'm just happy with a 10 day storm! I'm not getting sucked into staying up for the Euro on this one yet. I don't see the temps that would keep me up late for something this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I certainly hope the latest Nam is wrong. It shows this Tuesday-Wednesday event mostly missing the Carolinas. Nothing at all in the SC midlands with this event and less than .10 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I certainly hope the latest Nam is wrong. It shows this Tuesday-Wednesday event mostly missing the Carolinas. Nothing at all in the SC midlands with this event and less than .10 here. the ECMWF and GFS have shown much more esp along the 85 corridor. This event though is about like the others, heads northeast, so central Ga to northeastward in SC and eastern NC don't get the full effects. Right afterwards though, return flow comes back and rain breaks out quickly Thursday night it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The models always under do the cold with CAD and with that much moisture you would more than likely get enough dynamic cooling to get snow. For your backyard it might not be great but looked good for mine. This is Pacific cold we are talking about. The models aren't underdoing anything except the amount of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Dang, Darlin' I am truely sorry I'm just thinking you and I are together in this desert, and wasn't thinking of S.C. when I said Carolina. It's Robert and them in NC, that got mad at us for getting all the rain for years, and now they've got it, lol. I keep saying once the main rain comes south we all get in on some frozen fun. As long as the rain runs the Tenn Valley, only the northern fringe will get the hits. The first gulf storm sets the stage and then, whammo..out go the lights I mean, think about it. When Robert had less rain, he got so much snow it broke his trees! And Lookout. He had a rain shield over him that couldn't be beat, and he got like 10 inches, or something. It just snowed, and snowed over his house while the sun was out over here, and I'm watching my stinkin' inch melt! I rest my case. Rain gets south, we all win. Tony Now wait a minute....by that logic you and I ought to be eat up with snow. Hmmmm......... Oh, well....it is 38 here, and with low dew points I could be having snow right now, if some rain was coming in...... Yep, ok, rain needs to come to us, you and me It's already cold enough, almost. Robert and Lookout with their drought denting rains give me hope for a southern slider to work it's magic and bring some much needed relief to our dust bowl yards. Until then I'll be waiting patiently for something to drop into the gulf, cross over Florida and reform off Savannah My patience will pay off...one day...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The GFS is rolling...no surprises or major changes from the 18z. The system around day 6 dives far to the south in the Rockies...could be a fun setup for somebody if there's enough cold air to work south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The GFS is rolling...no surprises or major changes from the 18z. The system around day 6 dives far to the south in the Rockies...could be a fun setup for somebody if there's enough cold air to work south too. not excited yet but watching. sent you an email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Snow in Texas and Ark spreads through Deep South around hour 168 to 180. It drives the cold to the Tx coast, But the way the trough is pos. tilt, its mostly west of the Apps cold so far. Atleast both models have a far diving vort, just how the handle the evolution is different, and that means everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Gfs is cold next Monday. Has a southeast snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Snow in Texas and Ark spreads through Deep South around hour 168 to 180. It drives the cold to the Tx coast, But the way the trough is pos. tilt, its mostly west of the Apps cold so far. Atleast both models have a far diving vort, just how the handle the evolution is different, and that means everything. Positive tilt is almost helping in this case though. If ridging out west holds strong in this period instead of flattening, the trough would quickly sharpen over the plains and everyone in the east would be flooded with warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GFS drops 3-4" of snow over AL/MS. Would certainly warrant a snow chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 need that low to get a little more amped up to pull some cold in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 At least with the positive tilt you can get a southeast slider. Less worry of a cutter. Snow in Texas and Ark spreads through Deep South around hour 168 to 180. It drives the cold to the Tx coast, But the way the trough is pos. tilt, its mostly west of the Apps cold so far. Atleast both models have a far diving vort, just how the handle the evolution is different, and that means everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 the zero line doesnt' cross much east of the Apps in NC, SC GA but does in VA, so Richmond and DC are in the threshold for snow, a good amount where its colder in DC and up the EAst coast. Huge precip field. the key difference now is the ECMWF has damming and lays cold air in here first, before the cutoff forms. The GFS still hasn't cut off. Obviously 7 to 10 days away, so theres going to be changes. Its just funny how nearly everybody totally wrote off even the chances we could be watching this take place. We'll see though, the models may be out to lunch totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Positive tilt is almost helping in this case though. If ridging out west holds strong in this period instead of flattening, the trough would quickly sharpen over the plains and everyone in the east would be flooded with warmth. True. this could go many different directions. The ECM had strong damming , thanks to a high and colder air pushing in behind storm number 2 or 3 I think (I'm losing track they're so many). GFS and ECMWF both want to drop one final deep s/w south and then possibly stall it out, or cut it off. Who knows if its right yet...this is so far out there to trust yet, but they may be on to something. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 the zero line doesnt' cross much east of the Apps in NC, SC GA but does in VA, so Richmond and DC are in the threshold for snow, a good amount where its colder in DC and up the EAst coast. Huge precip field. the key difference now is the ECMWF has damming and lays cold air in here first, before the cutoff forms. The GFS still hasn't cut off. Obviously 7 to 10 days away, so theres going to be changes. Its just funny how nearly everybody totally wrote off even the chances we could be watching this take place. We'll see though, the models may be out to lunch totally. Yeah I feel like the whole evolution from 12/24 onward is not quite figured out by any of the models. The strength of and how all the shortwaves interact will have large impacts on how this all unfolds. If the 12/24 storm can be stronger and possibly pull in more cold air behind it, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Gfs is cold next Monday. Has a southeast snowstorm! I don't see it. The 0z gfs is too warm. Things could change like Robert said but per the 0z gfs we get a soaker on Christmas Eve and the day after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Beyond that, just shots of this and that along the way. No sustained anything. This is going to be a headache, since the pattern can change so quickly without much warning. Bottom line is don't bet the farm on anything you see on any models. Atleast until we're less than 48 hours out. The flow is full of energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I don't see it. The 0z gfs is too warm. Things could change like Robert said but per the 0z gfs we get a soaker on Christmas Eve and the day after Christmas. yeah, verbatim this is another screw job for NC while our neighbors to the south get snow again... still plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Well, the cold never gets east of the apps. Should be snow for extreme western nc, Tenn, and north Alabama. I don't see it. The 0z gfs is too warm. Things could change like Robert said but per the 0z gfs we get a soaker on Christmas Eve and the day after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yeah, verbatim this is another screw job for NC while our neighbors to the south get snow again... still plenty of time Yuck. The Apps have become some sort of anti-snow iron curtain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 According to Allan's site Tenn is in the sweet spot. Shows snow from the spine of the apps and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Yeah I feel like the whole evolution from 12/24 onward is not quite figured out by any of the models. The strength of and how all the shortwaves interact will have large impacts on how this all unfolds. If the 12/24 storm can be stronger and possibly pull in more cold air behind it, watch out. The euro had more confluence in the northeast around that time, thanks to the very deep cyclone south of Greenland, so that pushed in colder air east of the apps, and it was cutoff in the Gulf states that developed a surface low in the Eastern Gulf. the GFS isn't too far from that, but lacks the Northeast high pressure and damming. In the end anything is certainly possible this far out. From the southwest system cutting off too soon, which floods more warm air up ahead of it, to more of a cutoff in the Deep South, or even just a progressive front. Could be that we end up with a weak cutoff or sharp trough in the Miss. Valley, with a banana shaped high, and maybe Tenn. Valley inverted trough, that would end up being like a traditional Winter storm, but more for upper Al, Ms, Ark, Tn and the Apps with cold rain piedmont, maybe a mix or ice. Too early to say. IMO, odds still mostly favor any snow to be from the Apps, west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 According to Allan's site Tenn is in the sweet spot. Shows snow from the spine of the apps and west. Imo, even Tenn would start out as rain then change over to snow. Of course I would trust Allan over myself. Also this is just looking at the 0z gfs at 180 hrs out which isn't smart on my part anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Lol... Same here. I have only been watching.g this timeframe cause its Christmas. Imo, even Tenn would start out as rain then change over to snow. Of course I would trust Allan over myself. Also this is just looking at the 0z gfs at 180 hrs out which isn't smart on my part anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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