SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[Psalm 148:8]

Well let's see....lots of storms in the pattern (past and potential future)....moisture there.....sooner or later one of those has to meet up with cold air of some sort....be it the shallow variety(ice storm) or the thick variety (snow)....Seems the GFS with its diving 540's here and there and the EURO with its little blurbs of hope...seems like a suprise could be in the mix....gives me hope.....still hoping for one of those ULLs to come this way....even though models seem to be rather flippant, I'm encouraged....You never know when the flip will be for the good.

[FoothillsNC]

The cmc was almost as cold as the euro. And FWIW the 500h setup on the nogaps is nice looking for western nc, n ga, and Tenn.

thanks, I haven't looked at anything other yet. I was just looking at the surface maps for ECMWF around day 10. And good grief, look at the depth of the 2 biggest surface cyclones. One is south of Greenland at 965mb best I could tell, and the one coming into Alaska is around 955mb !! Alaska is taking a beating, and again the north Atlantic. I know there's been a series of bad storms in both places and the UK already.

The storm south of Greenland just might be what the model uses to stall out the high pressure in the Northeast, acting as blocking. I still say all this extreme amplification going on can only slam someone the next few months, in Dixie. Already look how many cutoffs there's been in Tenn Valley, and now we have the chance at one more big one showing up (and not to mention whats coming out of the southern Plains and Rockies next couple days). The pattern is just repetitive, but I don't recall yet seeing a strong one work out for southern Greenland, so I'd watch future runs. We're at record setting territory on the number and depth of these big storms, so despite the lack of good cold, as we get a little deeper into the step down process, an extremely deep snowfall could occur. I know most folks don't think that can happen in the Southeast, esp. this year. I'd be shocked though if it doesn't happen. Might take until March.

[GaffneyPeach]

A damming 'cold' high and 5-6 inches of wet? No way I want that.

Interesting weather to be sure. I've seen these winters before (don't ask for dates...you know I don't know them LOL) and they invariably sneak in a surprise or two. Just sayin'...

[franklin NCwx]

yeah, I agree. Seems like so far its acting like an el Nino year. The southern plains and interior/ upper south has been very wet. Only a matter of time before some true arctic air is involved in the pattern. It's only Dec and a lot of folks have thrown in the towel. I remember a few posters over the last two years upset about "wasting a great pattern in Dec, only to have a not so favorable one at peak climo". With all the cold building up north and the active stj, winter might end very late this year.

thanks, I haven't looked at anything other yet. I was just looking at the surface maps for ECMWF around day 10. And good grief, look at the depth of the 2 biggest surface cyclones. One is south of Greenland at 965mb best I could tell, and the one coming into Alaska is around 955mb !! Alaska is taking a beating, and again the north Atlantic. I know there's been a series of bad storms in both places and the UK already.

The storm south of Greenland just might be what the model uses to stall out the high pressure in the Northeast, acting as blocking. I still say all this extreme amplification going on can only slam someone the next few months, in Dixie. Already look how many cutoffs there's been in Tenn Valley, and now we have the chance at one more big one showing up (and not to mention whats coming out of the southern Plains and Rockies next couple days). The pattern is just repetitive, but I don't recall yet seeing a strong one work out for southern Greenland, so I'd watch future runs. We're at record setting territory on the number and depth of these big storms, so despite the lack of good cold, as we get a little deeper into the step down process, an extremely deep snowfall could occur. I know most folks don't think that can happen in the Southeast, esp. this year. I'd be shocked though if it doesn't happen. Might take until March.

[FoothillsNC]

yeah, I agree. Seems like so far its acting like an el Nino year. The southern plains and interior/ upper south has been very wet. Only a matter of time before some true arctic air is involved in the pattern. It's only Dec and a lot of folks have thrown in the towel. I remember a few posters over the last two years upset about "wasting a great pattern in Dec, only to have a not so favorable one at peak climo". With all the cold building up north and the active stj, winter might end very late this year.

I agree. In the end nobody knows, and it still could very well be a dud for the Southeast. But but but..all along I've seen some things that could yield the opposite ,and now that we will have had 2 to 3 months of +ao and +nao basically, and throw in some very wet weather with lots of amplified patterns and cutoffs, it could get fun when the tide turns. And usually every winter, even the worst ones, we end up changing the pattern. Who knows though when it turns, it may get dry cold and boring. But one thing I think very well could happen is that during a pattern switch, a major winter storm either hits just before the switch, or just after . I'd be fine to have things progress in a step down fashion for now, knowing that only colder and colder air gets involved with the southern stream. This may be a one hit wonder type of Winter, usually how it goes for us, but the stakes are high. That one hit could be 1 to 2 feet.

The tell-tale signs on ECMWF are the big 2 cyclones it has developing, and room for one more (potentially -deep-farsouth ) cutoff coming up. I won't say I'm sold on it just yet, but it does fit the bill, and there will probably be more. This pattern is so much more fun than a boring cold and dry one, or even your typical el nino pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

I agree. In the end nobody knows, and it still could very well be a dud for the Southeast. But but but..all along I've seen some things that could yield the opposite ,and now that we will have had 2 to 3 months of +ao and +nao basically, and throw in some very wet weather with lots of amplified patterns and cutoffs, it could get fun when the tide turns. And usually every winter, even the worst ones, we end up changing the pattern. Who knows though when it turns, it may get dry cold and boring. But one thing I think very well could happen is that during a pattern switch, a major winter storm either hits just before the switch, or just after . I'd be fine to have things progress in a step down fashion for now, knowing that only colder and colder air gets involved with the southern stream. This may be a one hit wonder type of Winter, usually how it goes for us, but the stakes are high. That one hit could be 1 to 2 feet.

The tell-tale signs on ECMWF are the big 2 cyclones it has developing, and room for one more (potentially -deep-farsouth ) cutoff coming up. I won't say I'm sold on it just yet, but it does fit the bill, and there will probably be more. This pattern is so much more fun than a boring cold and dry one, or even your typical el nino pattern.

I can't count the number of times during a cold pattern in the SE that the models just show endless cold only to flip to a warmer pattern and never look back - w/ very little notice. The models just flip. And the signal is usually a big winterstorm. May be one of these storms signals a flip. If anyone can, let us know what the ensembles are saying about the Euro operational. I'm guessing it's an outlier, but Dr. No tends to sniff things out and hold onto them as Foothills stated. Finally, maybe, could be we have something to watch w/ the 12z Euro...Maybe. Thanks for the write-up, Foothills.

[Cold Rain]

I agree. In the end nobody knows, and it still could very well be a dud for the Southeast. But but but..all along I've seen some things that could yield the opposite ,and now that we will have had 2 to 3 months of +ao and +nao basically, and throw in some very wet weather with lots of amplified patterns and cutoffs, it could get fun when the tide turns. And usually every winter, even the worst ones, we end up changing the pattern. Who knows though when it turns, it may get dry cold and boring. But one thing I think very well could happen is that during a pattern switch, a major winter storm either hits just before the switch, or just after . I'd be fine to have things progress in a step down fashion for now, knowing that only colder and colder air gets involved with the southern stream. This may be a one hit wonder type of Winter, usually how it goes for us, but the stakes are high. That one hit could be 1 to 2 feet.

The tell-tale signs on ECMWF are the big 2 cyclones it has developing, and room for one more (potentially -deep-farsouth ) cutoff coming up. I won't say I'm sold on it just yet, but it does fit the bill, and there will probably be more. This pattern is so much more fun than a boring cold and dry one, or even your typical el nino pattern.

I agree with your thoughts. It's very unusual to see such activity in a Nina year. I think someone is going to get a big snow in the SE. I'm not too excited about this area, though. The repeating pattern of cutoffs over MS/AL and tracking NW of this area is not a good setup for winter weather here...or even the most significant rain, really. You guys might eventually do well, though.

[WilkesboroDude]

[pcbjr]

^

Shoot - and I was hoping for that rare Fla snow like 1989

[pcbjr]

^

Shoot - and I was hoping for that rare Fla snow like 1989

[NCSNOW]

Just what I need by next Wednesday 9-12 inches in the ol back yard. I'm gonna enjoy every minute of this for the next 12 hours. Thanks Euro

[FoothillsNC]

the 18z GFS is colder in the plains so far. It just spills more cold air than the 12z had. Don't know if that means both models are onto something yet, they could still be wrong. Just checked its 144 panels and its delivering quite a bit more cold air into the heartland and pushing much further south than the other runs. It doesn't look like it will have a cutoff over the Southeast at days 9 or 10 though, with that kind of flow. Plenty of rain in the Southeast, esp. the southern Apps. this week.

[nchighcountrywx]

Christmas miracle!

[FoothillsNC]

18z of the GFS should make a lot of folks happy. To even be flirting with a southeast snowstorm after the runs lately, would be a miracle.

[FoothillsNC]

Needless to say, chalk this up to 18z runs I suppose. It digs a strong vort south toward the southern Rockies and Texas and the Gulf, meanwhile colder air is pushing southbound too. Much colder than any other run showed. It doesn't quite stand the trough up enough to spark a good gulf low, but if there's enough separationg of the flow, without being too seperated at 168, then this is the makings of a very close call. Almost cuts it off in Al/Ga...so this run gives some snow chance to part of the Southeast, esp. the coastal and interior Carolinas.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Needless to say, chalk this up to 18z runs I suppose. It digs a strong vort south toward the southern Rockies and Texas and the Gulf, meanwhile colder air is pushing southbound too. Much colder than any other run showed. It doesn't quite stand the trough up enough to spark a good gulf low, but if there's enough separationg of the flow, without being too seperated at 168, then this is the makings of a very close call. Almost cuts it off in Al/Ga...so this run gives some snow chance to part of the Southeast, esp. the coastal and interior Carolinas.

So in other words, are you telling us that we need to stay up for the 0z GFS? . It's about time if you ask me.

[HKY_WX]

Yea the 18z gfs and 12 euro around day 7-10 are the first interesting runs pretty much this entire winter thus far. The pacific is starting to look a little more favorable in the extended, offsetting the horrible atlantic/ao/nao setup. IMO this may be the first sign la-nina is losing its influence.

[CaryWx]

18z of the GFS should make a lot of folks happy. To even be flirting with a southeast snowstorm after the runs lately, would be a miracle.

Notice the snow in central Meh-hee-co? Just a little perspective for that map. A festivus miracle!

[kanc2001]

Needless to say, chalk this up to 18z runs I suppose. It digs a strong vort south toward the southern Rockies and Texas and the Gulf, meanwhile colder air is pushing southbound too. Much colder than any other run showed. It doesn't quite stand the trough up enough to spark a good gulf low, but if there's enough separationg of the flow, without being too seperated at 168, then this is the makings of a very close call. Almost cuts it off in Al/Ga...so this run gives some snow chance to part of the Southeast, esp. the coastal and interior Carolinas.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

18z of the GFS should make a lot of folks happy. To even be flirting with a southeast snowstorm after the runs lately, would be a miracle.

At least we have something to track.....

[MillzPirate]

just when I was about to write this storm off for our neck of the woods the 18z goes and does this to me

[MADDOGG]

• 50 user's (somthing is looking good)
  

[dsaur]

Wow at the Euro today!

..... it would be one of the patterns you'd tell your grandkids about. Just storm after storm after storm in the Southeast. Lots of overrunning and synoptic events , each very healthy event, that we couldn't even buy in a normal weather pattern. Fun pattern!

That...that right there is what I've been wanting to see since that first sleet storm back in the 50's. I want a heaping helping of that right there, lol !!! Year after year would be ok, but if it is just one year, then I'd like to see it before I'm 80

Sure like the increasing rain chances for the parts of Ga that haven't caught up with you rain rich Carolina and Tenn. folks. It's simple really...once we get our rain, then everyone gets snow! T

[NavarreDon]

GSP seems to have a small amount of concern about the high & where it will be for the X-Mas storm.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL SEE SPLIT

FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF OVER THE

SOUTHWEST STATES...THEN EJECTS INTO THE BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW OVER

THE EASTERN STATES. THE FIRST EJECTING WAVE FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE

LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF

CONTINUES TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WITH THIS

FEATURE. HPC HAS FAVORED THE 00 UTC ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED

TODAY...AND THAT/S WHAT I/LL FOLLOW AS WELL. THIS RESULTS IN A GOOD

CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THU...THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. ATTM THE THERMAL

PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ALL LIQUID EVENT. THE NEXT WAVE

EJECTS ACROSS THE MID-WEST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT...I.E. CHRISTMAS

EVE. AGAIN...THE ECMWF SFC WET BULBS AND LLVL TEMPERATURE PROFILE

CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. OWING TO THE INHERENT

UNCERTAINTY WITH SPLIT FLOW IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...POPS HAVE BEEN

HELD IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SAT/SUN. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS

CONTINUE...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ON CHRISTMAS WILL BE RAISED ON LATER

SHIFTS. FORTUNATELY THE SFC HIGH IS TRANSITORY AND DOESN/T SUPPORT

CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING...THOUGH WE COULD EASILY SEE MORE

MID-TROPOSPHERIC CONFLUENCE AND A MORE STRONGLY ANCHORED HIGH

CONSIDERING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

[Amos83]

I dont care if this doesnt pan out....... Atleast we FINALLY have something to watch, that in itself is a festivus miracle

[buckeyefan1]

Wow at the Euro today! Its still holding on to another deep South cutoff like yesterday, but its quite a bit different looking than GFS. Late in the run, it develops another cutoff in the east Texas or gulf area, but since its so much colder than GFS ahead of this new development, the upper Southeast and Apps and damming areas might have to watch this one. It shows nice strong confluent zone in the northeast, so the high pressure actually builds down the damming areas rapidly (takes 32 surface line into nw NC) and then brings the Gulf low up the Ga . coastline and into eastern Coast. Very Wintry looking map. The big doubts I still have is the antecedant cold air it has ahead of this whole system . But since the whole development begins so far south, its possible. Not likely though, not yet. I do think there's going to be another cutoff though, but probably a little warmer overall than its showing right now. If not, then that CAD look is pretty icy looking for western Carolinas, verbatim on the isobars and other things. Its a 7 to 10 day prog though and not likely to develop quite like that, but again its still showing the cutoff (several in fact) and tons of precip in the Southeast all the way to TExas and many areas. Its just plain old stormy pattern.

On the one hand, if we did actually have just a little more cold air in general to mix in with this upcoming pattern, it would be one of the patterns you'd tell your grandkids about. Just storm after storm after storm in the Southeast. Lots of overrunning and synoptic events , each very healthy event, that we couldn't even buy in a normal weather pattern. Fun pattern!

Rain...even 33 and rain would be a welcomed change

That...that right there is what I've been wanting to see since that first sleet storm back in the 50's. I want a heaping helping of that right there, lol !!! Year after year would be ok, but if it is just one year, then I'd like to see it before I'm 80

Sure like the increasing rain chances for the parts of Ga that haven't caught up with you rain rich Western Carolina and Tenn. folks. It's simple really...once we get our rain, then everyone gets snow! T

FYP to insert the western I'm starting to forget what rain is like around here

[DaculaWeather]

I'm continuing to watch the strat temps.. it's very interesting. The 10 hpa temps are forecasted to slowly move from west to east and you can see the shift between these two maps

[burgertime]

I just got to look at the Euro...wow! Looks like another good week to have taken off like last year! 18z as Robert said wasn't quite as impressive but just that fact we have something to watch is enough.

[POWERSTROKE]

it will be fun just hope we don't have the 10 day storm then within 48 hours no cold air

[MillzPirate]

I just got to look at the Euro...wow! Looks like another good week to have taken off like last year! 18z as Robert said wasn't quite as impressive but just that fact we have something to watch is enough.

still not seeing how the Euro looks good to everyone... seems really warm to me