SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[Cold Rain]

I don't honestly recall the last time things looked this awful with no prospects of any decent cold anywhere in the foreseeable future. Good for heating bills, I guess.

[franklin NCwx]

I don't honestly recall the last time things looked this awful with no prospects of any decent cold anywhere in the foreseeable future. Good for heating bills, I guess.

we can pin our hopes on the cmc, maybe some Christmas eve flurries? until the last two years snowstorms in the south were uncommon. Even here in the mtns. Last year winter ended early, maybe its the opposite this year? I'm just hoping the cold comes before spring. Nothing worse than snow and cold in April during softball season.

[BullCityWx]

Looks like the ensembles are finally catching on to that AO spike around Christmas.

[FoothillsNC]

Thanks, Robert. I have it in my head that it is going to be a stalled boundry that will give us what we want down the road. If nothing else it can guide a rain ladened gulf low up this way, so we can finally get some relief T

The GFS loves putting down a lot of rain in the last few runs. The month should end on a wet note.

[CaryWx]

What, no live in-depth analysis of the 0z GFS?

I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that it basically never even gets below freezing in the south for the entire run.

There is a nice southern closed low at 384 hours -- southern CANADA, that is ...

Wow. That's out beyond the 1st of the year. Another 16 days of no appreciable pattern change beyond this current cycle and winter will indeed look bleak....for a real cold set-up that is.

[FoothillsNC]

The pattern looks wet. It looks like the first storm will stop the boundary in the Southeast, and by Thursday we already have return flow and impulses running along it with more rain, esp. in interior Southeast. Atlanta looks to do good with this pattern and esp. Northern Ga and the Apps around Tenn Valley and the Carolinas. The GFS has 3" to 4" total over the next week, with a good southwest flow and stalled boundary. Enjoy the sunshine today because its about to be fading away for a while. Christmas in the Southeast looks damp and dreary.

[MichaelJ]

I really think it will be after mid January before any intrusion of Arctic air into the eastern and southern US can occur, and even then only if the stratospheric warming slides over to Greenland. What happens after that is anyone's guess and the odds are 50/50 that this pattern will persist for the vast majority of the winter but time will tell. Enjoy the mild weather this winter because I have a sneaking hunch the next few winters will give us plenty to discuss.

[FoothillsNC]

The GFS shows nothing as far as cold weather in the contiguous US as we enter January. Now of course this won't be the whole pattern all Winter, and chances are its missing a major amplification somewhere, but obviously its not going to get cold around here for anytime too long, other than a quick in and out cold shot possibly. The bigger deal is just how much rain it drops. The whole country almost looks very wet. The interior of the Southeast is going to do very well to replenish the needed ground water. I think for my area it will go down as the wettest La Nina year on record. It will beat many El Nino years. Strange.

[dsaur]

Yep, the next run puts the stalled front further down and develops the energy back in the gulf. Just what I want to see It was plenty cold enough last night down here. Folks are missing the point that it is less about bitter cold and more about timing. All I see ahead are possibilities, not crushed dreams I guess when you've seem a whole lot of winters crush dreams, you realize that's the norm, and you go for the possibilities part, lol. The only thing that can keep the snow addicted sane in the deep south. To me it is always and ever about only one degree. The difference between 33 and rain, and 32 and frozen stuff. T

[Shawn]

Yep, the next run puts the stalled front further down and develops the energy back in the gulf. Just what I want to see It was plenty cold enough last night down here. Folks are missing the point that it is less about bitter cold and more about timing. All I see ahead are possibilities, not crushed dreams I guess when you've seem a whole lot of winters crush dreams, you realize that's the norm, and you go for the possibilities part, lol. The only thing that can keep the snow addicted sane in the deep south. To me it is always and ever about only one degree. The difference between 33 and rain, and 32 and frozen stuff. T

or 29 surface temps and that pesky warm nose that makes freezing rain. (:

[burgertime]

Hell we may need a boat if the gfs is correct would love the bitter cold with that much qpf :-)

[weatherfide]

Yep, the next run puts the stalled front further down and develops the energy back in the gulf. Just what I want to see It was plenty cold enough last night down here. Folks are missing the point that it is less about bitter cold and more about timing. All I see ahead are possibilities, not crushed dreams I guess when you've seem a whole lot of winters crush dreams, you realize that's the norm, and you go for the possibilities part, lol. The only thing that can keep the snow addicted sane in the deep south. To me it is always and ever about only one degree. The difference between 33 and rain, and 32 and frozen stuff. T

True, bitter cold would likely be of arctic origin and too dry for much precipitation/snow. The dry air would soak up all of that moisture in a heart beat. Timing is what you need. I am excited about the rain chances increasing. Our reservoirs are really low right now.

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS shows nothing as far as cold weather in the contiguous US as we enter January. Now of course this won't be the whole pattern all Winter, and chances are its missing a major amplification somewhere, but obviously its not going to get cold around here for anytime too long, other than a quick in and out cold shot possibly. The bigger deal is just how much rain it drops. The whole country almost looks very wet. The interior of the Southeast is going to do very well to replenish the needed ground water. I think for my area it will go down as the wettest La Nina year on record. It will beat many El Nino years. Strange.

That very well could be the case here as well, very atypical in that regard. And...if it is atypical in that regard, it could find a way to be atypical in other areas. Honestly, because it has been so damp, it almost feels colder this weekend than compared to just normal cold. Last year's La Nina was atypical w/ the prolonged cold we witnessed. My yard may actually stay green next summer. Hopefully, it won't get cold and dry-out. I'd like to see this moisture and cold connect at some point.

[CaryWx]

FWIW, accu-profit has Cary with a mix of snow/rain on Jan 1st. ...and Shawn's remark about that pesky warm-nose is spot on. When we are in the rare "set-up" favor for snow in the Triangle it's usually the warm nose that many more times than not, plays spoiler up here.

Regardless, we need the rain though.

[jburns]

I don't honestly recall the last time things looked this awful with no prospects of any decent cold anywhere in the foreseeable future.

August 3rd.

[mclean02]

^ i agree with that lol

[packbacker]

Crazy cold for US mid section on Euro after Xmas. Below freezing in Mexico.

[packbacker]

Hour 210 on Euro looks interesting for sure...for someone.

[franklin NCwx]

Hour 210 on Euro looks interesting for sure...for someone.

I only go it to 168, what does it try and do with the trough after Christmas? Thanks.

[packbacker]

I only go it to 168, what does it try and do with the trough after Christmas? Thanks.

Pops SLP over FL PH and then rides up coast, off ILM at 234.

[Shawn]

I only go it to 168, what does it try and do with the trough after Christmas? Thanks.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html there's a link to the pennstate one. Not as detailed as wunderground but from what I see at 216/240 hrs the 540 line is pretty far North along with 850's.

[packbacker]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html there's a link to the pennstate one. Not as detailed as wunderground but from what I see at 216/240 hrs the 540 line is pretty far North along with 850's.

Yeah, the high needs to move about 200 miles west. Probably snow for Interior WV and north.

[franklin NCwx]

Pops SLP over FL PH and then rides up coast, off ILM at 234.

thanks, just saw hour 192. Looks like it wants to dig for oil in south Texas. FWIW the nogaps has a nice setup at 180.

[packbacker]

Closest thing to a winter storm on the Euro for the SE and mid atlantic since last year. One thing is for sure, the bulk of the country is cold on this run.

[FoothillsNC]

Wow at the Euro today! Its still holding on to another deep South cutoff like yesterday, but its quite a bit different looking than GFS. Late in the run, it develops another cutoff in the east Texas or gulf area, but since its so much colder than GFS ahead of this new development, the upper Southeast and Apps and damming areas might have to watch this one. It shows nice strong confluent zone in the northeast, so the high pressure actually builds down the damming areas rapidly (takes 32 surface line into nw NC) and then brings the Gulf low up the Ga . coastline and into eastern Coast. Very Wintry looking map. The big doubts I still have is the antecedant cold air it has ahead of this whole system . But since the whole development begins so far south, its possible. Not likely though, not yet. I do think there's going to be another cutoff though, but probably a little warmer overall than its showing right now. If not, then that CAD look is pretty icy looking for western Carolinas, verbatim on the isobars and other things. Its a 7 to 10 day prog though and not likely to develop quite like that, but again its still showing the cutoff (several in fact) and tons of precip in the Southeast all the way to TExas and many areas. Its just plain old stormy pattern.

On the one hand, if we did actually have just a little more cold air in general to mix in with this upcoming pattern, it would be one of the patterns you'd tell your grandkids about. Just storm after storm after storm in the Southeast. Lots of overrunning and synoptic events , each very healthy event, that we couldn't even buy in a normal weather pattern. Fun pattern!

[packbacker]

thanks, just saw hour 192. Looks like it wants to dig for oil in south Texas. FWIW the nogaps has a nice setup at 180.

I would assume we should be encouraged by this run. The NE has to love the look of this run. Just surprised the extent of the cold.

[packbacker]

Wow at the Euro today! Its still holding on to another deep South cutoff like yesterday, but its quite a bit different looking than GFS. Late in the run, it develops another cutoff in the east Texas or gulf area, but since its so much colder than GFS ahead of this new development, the upper Southeast and Apps and damming areas might have to watch this one. It shows nice strong confluent zone in the northeast, so the high pressure actually builds down the damming areas rapidly (takes 32 surface line into nw NC) and then brings the Gulf low up the Ga . coastline and into eastern Coast. Very Wintry looking map. The big doubts I still have is the antecedant cold air it has ahead of this whole system . But since the whole development begins so far south, its possible. Not likely though, not yet. I do think there's going to be another cutoff though, but probably a little warmer overall than its showing right now. If not, then that CAD look is pretty icy looking for western Carolinas, verbatim on the isobars and other things. Its a 7 to 10 day prog though and not likely to develop quite like that, but again its still showing the cutoff (several in fact) and tons of precip in the Southeast all the way to TExas and many areas. Its just plain old stormy pattern.

On the one hand, if we did actually have just a little more cold air in general to mix in with this upcoming pattern, it would be one of the patterns you'd tell your grandkids about. Just storm after storm after storm in the Southeast. Lots of overrunning and synoptic events , each very healthy event, that we couldn't even buy in a normal weather pattern. Fun pattern!

What did you think of the cold for the bulk of the US?

[FoothillsNC]

Closest thing to a winter storm on the Euro for the SE and mid atlantic since last year. One thing is for sure, the bulk of the country is cold on this run.

What did you think of the cold for the bulk of the US?

Looks over done a little to me. GFS is much warmer. But you got to hand it to the ECMWF for being more consistent, so its something to watch if it remains consistent. If one of the northern rockies systems can really pull down a larger chunk of cold air with it, as it rolls east, like the one around Christmas, then we may have something to play with. The GFS doesn't pull down as much, consequently it does't have much cold air for the subsequent systems to utilize. There so many uper lows and very strong kickers coming into the southern Rockies, its a very wild pattern. Again if we did have just a little more cold air to work with, then this would be a mega winter storm pattern for the northern shield of these weather events. I guess all I can say is watch future runs to see how much cold air does get pulled south. I think this model is being too generous with the cold coming so far south, but who knows yet. Last year around this time is when the ECMWF caught on to the strong diving vort and southern stream phase systems that generated the Christmas Snowstorm in the South, and it never really let go. If the track of that day 9 and 10 system is off the GA coast, watch out for inland areas *if* there is enough cold dry air to work with. It hits western Virginia and northwest NC pretty hard with ice in that setup (not trusting its explicit 2m temps)

In my early analysis of this setup, if the past is any indication, then the Tennessee Valley region could be the recipients of more snow. Way too early to be saying that with any conviction though, but obviously the pattern has been repeating so much , thats where I'd hedge bets on being enough cold air to work with.

Last couple runs of the next deep south cutoff:

[FoothillsNC]

by the way, this is just as wet as GFS. Has 5" to 6" in central and northern GA to central and western SC. Huge bonus rains if the pattern works out like the GFS and ECMWF are showing. We are ground zero for major rains to round out the year. Heaven forbid the high dams in stronger and colder than shown.

[franklin NCwx]

The cmc was almost as cold as the euro. And FWIW the 500h setup on the nogaps is nice looking for western nc, n ga, and Tenn.

by the way, this is just as wet as GFS. Has 5" to 6" in central and northern GA to central and western SC. Huge bonus rains if the pattern works out like the GFS and ECMWF are showing. We are ground zero for major rains to round out the year. Heaven forbid the high dams in stronger and colder than shown.