DaculaWeather Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Good catch Robert. Maybe the tide will start turning. GFS is now showing stronger and stronger strat warming. Here's 168 hours Here's 240 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 12z GFS paints an inch of snow across most of northern NC for Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Good catch Robert. Maybe the tide will start turning. GFS is now showing stronger and stronger strat warming. That can't be or if it is, it will vanish quickly as the AO goes strongly positive again....according to the main board prophets and historical data. Will be fun to see how everything unfolds. Some may gain worship status, or, become a cast away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 12z GFS paints an inch of snow across most of northern NC for Christmas Eve Yep, at-least the map off of twisterdata does between 144 and 150, this is RDU's sounding @ 150, 144 looks better in terms of saturation through the dendritic growth zone but the last 3-5k' are dry. 150hrs, only issue is the last 2k' which are above freezing. Oh well, nice to finally have something to track, but as Robert mentioned, timing looks off in terms of frontal passage vs qpf arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The only problem with the hype of strat warming is, (the COLD will go into the pac NW and N. Plains) From what I've been reading... I will be shocked if I see a snow over 3 inches this year. And I think if there is any winter it will be late Feb- into early March.... Not trying to be Mr.Negitive, just how I feel, And IDK what the heck i'm talking about just posting on things i've read. And hope i'm wrong big time Enjoy mowing your lawns next month!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 GGEm out to 144 hours. Looks like the GFS and GGEM have a strong ridge right about the time new s/w is dropping south from Canada and *might* capture a stalled Gulf boundary or something coming out of the southwest. It will still be hard with the GGEM looks as for being cold enough and combining the cold + moisture but it's worth mentioning as a slight possibility, esp. since the GFS isn't too dissimilar at that time range. At this point most anything still looks like mostly rain. But the pretty big ridge in the Pacific on all models about that time atleast makes it unimpossible (atleast not out of the question completely) for something fun to happen down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Color me unimpressed. Two rain events then somewhat cooler. Blah (except I will welcome the rain). I do have a bit of hope for later on the winter IF we can reverse the NAO and hold on to the strong ridge just off the west coast. Big ifs though, we are probably due for a winter with less snow here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Color me unimpressed. Two rain events then somewhat cooler. Blah (except I will welcome the rain). I do have a bit of hope for later on the winter IF we can reverse the NAO and hold on to the strong ridge just off the west coast. Big ifs though, we are probably due for a winter with less snow here.... Your last sentence is a major under statement. If atlanta were to receive zero snow for the next 3-4 years then it would make our 6-7 year average be our normal 1-2" yearly average. My point is atlanta is due for some below average winters regarding snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Your last sentence is a major under statement. If atlanta were to receive zero snow for the next 3-4 years then it would make our 6-7 year average be our normal 1-2" yearly average. My point is atlanta is due for some below average winters regarding snow fall. except now that we've probably entered the new 30 year NAO cycle phase, go back to the 1960s and 70's/early 80's to get a glimpse of whats to come. I'm not sure exactly how ATL did then, but it's probably better than the 30 year average? Even so, this particular year could be a dud there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 12z CMC over on pennstate's ewall is showing a brief flizzard with 540/850's cold enough 174 hours out all the way down to the midlands of SC on the backside around Christmas eve. Still nothing to amount to anything though. And that's if it's any moisture left at all as the temps fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 now we have the ECMWF GFS and GGEM all with a pretty sharp western ridge that sends a strong s/w down the rockies, the question is the timing . As usual, and that will mean everything. The ECM wants to make a bigger deal with the later wave dropping well south, but its first one coming through the Carolinas and VA might have a tad of precip, hard to make out much on the panels. It does pull down a lot of colder air, not frigid but the zero at 850 goes well south and it cuts off a 5H low along the gulf by day 10. Fits the pattern to get into another strong amplified pattern. We may be seeing another highly anamolous 5h cutoff in the deep south soon. With cold air to work with....hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 except now that we've probably entered the new 30 year NAO cycle phase, go back to the 1960s and 70's/early 80's to get a glimpse of whats to come. I'm not sure exactly how ATL did then, but it's probably better than the 30 year average? Even so, this particular year could be a dud there. Robert, 1) Yes, it was a bit better. S/IP KATL 1961-2 through 1982-3: 52.7" or 2.4" S/IP/winter vs. longterm (1876-present) avg. of ~2". 2) Heaviest S/IP for Atlanta by far was ~4"/year from 1880-1907 back when the climate was colder. Aside: Atlanta received two 4.2" IP storms during 1979-1988. Had those been S, they would have amounted to ~24" of total snow instead of 8.4" of IP. So, if one would do this exercise with other IP events, I imagine one could get the total KATL to close to 70" for the period 1961-1982. 70"/22 winters = 3.2" S/winter. My point is that the 2.4" of S/winter had an impact closer to a place that gets 3.2" of pure snow/winter. The 4"/year from 1880-1907 probably had the equivalent impact of ~5.5-6" of pure snow/yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 now we have the ECMWF GFS and GGEM all with a pretty sharp western ridge that sends a strong s/w down the rockies, the question is the timing . As usual, and that will mean everything. The ECM wants to make a bigger deal with the later wave dropping well south, but its first one coming through the Carolinas and VA might have a tad of precip, hard to make out much on the panels. It does pull down a lot of colder air, not frigid but the zero at 850 goes well south and it cuts off a 5H low along the gulf by day 10. Fits the pattern to get into another strong amplified pattern. We may be seeing another highly anamolous 5h cutoff in the deep south soon. With cold air to work with....hmmmmm. Euro looks strange to me... at one point it has <0 850's shooting south off the map down to around Cancun while most of NC is still >0.... RDU never gets below freezing 850's for the entirety of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Euro looks strange to me... at one point it has <0 850's shooting south off the map down to around Cancun while most of NC is still >0.... RDU never gets below freezing 850's for the entirety of the run Thats because it dives the cold air into the Plains mostly and amps the flow so much it gets a cutoff. With cutoffs it is usually warm east of there. I wouldn't trust any model beyond a few days with the cutoffs yet, but with all models showing a big ridge pumping in the east Pacific around day 5 through 8, there might be yet another deep cutoff somewhere down stream. Who knows where it could be yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Euro looks strange to me... at one point it has <0 850's shooting south off the map down to around Cancun while most of NC is still >0.... RDU never gets below freezing 850's for the entirety of the run Euro amplifies the second trough just after Christmas more-so than the other 12z guidance, actually tries to turn it neg tilt through BC into MT and the Dakotas, which keeps most of the cold in Canada bottled up near that massive PV, rather than giving a true Arctic shot punching down, kinda like the GFS and NOGAPS. Hard to tell which is right, although set-up has more potential than anything we have seen so far. Looking over the other 12z guidance, and considering what has been shown the past couple days for the period between 23rd-26th, hard to not get but a little excited. I think the SE may actually have a good look around Christmas, again. PNA is going to spike, no N Atlantic blocking, and a somewhat strong PV, likely the lowest heights in the NH, centered around the Hudson Straight. Two fronts coming down, first around the 23rd, second around the 26th, strength and QPF/timing unknown, maybe they consolidate, one, who knows. 12z GFS ens are a cluster, split between how the system dumping on the central US exits, what comes in behind it, and our setup in N NE, SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Hmmmm, pretty suprised at how quiet it on the board after looking at what the 12z Euro is showing today.... First it looks like we see 2 rain events heading into the area next week. First wave arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. The Second wave arrives Thursday into Thursday night and it sure does look like quite the rainmaker. Probably another 1"-3" Rain total week. Now for the wintry side news in regards to the week I continue to watch between Christmas and New Years, the 12z Euro is showing a Flizzard Possibility for Christmas Eve. Nothing significant but a few flakes are shown for a few areas. At least it looks to be cooling down just in time for the holidays. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Finally the big news besides the 12z Euro showing a nice cold blast during that week it is now showing a Deep Cut off low forming fairly well south with cold air this time (as we head later into winter this will continue to be the trend with these cut-off lows) Obviously just one run but def. another interesting setup which indeed would be very interesting. Uploaded with ImageShack.us URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/847/tuesdayam500.gif/][/url] Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The only problem with the hype of strat warming is, (the COLD will go into the pac NW and N. Plains) From what I've been reading... I will be shocked if I see a snow over 3 inches this year. And I think if there is any winter it will be late Feb- into early March.... Not trying to be Mr.Negitive, just how I feel, And IDK what the heck i'm talking about just posting on things i've read. And hope i'm wrong big time Enjoy mowing your lawns next month!!!! sounds like weatherbell talking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 sounds like weatherbell talking It is (I said what i've been reading?) But you can't mention names on here so I leave it at that! BTW- keep the fiddle handy so you can play it next month also!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 18z global @ 165hrs, still a somewhat favorable picture, temps/qpf undetermined. 180, take it at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Question for Robert, or anyone.... On the 12z Gfs, on the 25th, a low starts to form in Fla, or just off, along the old boundry. What is goofy seeing that makes it want that energy to intensify down there, instead of back in the gulf, or further up the boundry, off S.C. ? Just want some education on a slow day. Thanks, Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Even though the 850s might be marginally okay, there's no cold air really in the CONUS. So these storms will be just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Even though the 850s might be marginally okay, there's no cold air really in the CONUS. So these storms will be just rain. Call up Blacksburg and inquire about the temps next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Call up Blacksburg and inquire about the temps next weekend... 168 screams ice storm to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 18z global @ 165hrs, still a somewhat favorable picture, temps/qpf undetermined. That map has a few things that stand out to me....First, there is a well defined 50/50 low deep enough to provide some aspects of blocking. Second, there is a strong damming high pressure in a favorable spot. Last, there is some cold air to work with. As a native here, I have followed cold air damming for years and this is a good set-up for it. Notice the -20 850's in northern New England......All of the good CAD's have -20C 850's in that area. One thing that could prevent it from happening is the amount of dry air that will have to become saturated before we can get any precip to over-run the wedge. I believe the models aren't handling the strenght of the confluence very well...... With the 1036mb pressure, the positioning of the high, and the the low 850's, the southeast should be colder than what is being shown.......just food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Even though the 850s might be marginally okay, there's no cold air really in the CONUS. So these storms will be just rain. This is true. Fortunately, we need the rain, and a good southern track is still very favorable for good rains in these parts. I've seen the pattern repeated this fall. The models start off with a little cold air to work with but quickly warm it up. No sustained cold in the plains or to the northwest means we would have to rely on major blocking to push cold air in from due north or worse, from the northeast. I hope January and February don't follow this pattern, but it sounds likely that they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Question for Robert, or anyone.... On the 12z Gfs, on the 25th, a low starts to form in Fla, or just off, along the old boundry. What is goofy seeing that makes it want that energy to intensify down there, instead of back in the gulf, or further up the boundry, off S.C. ? Just want some education on a slow day. Thanks, Tony Tony on that run, the model sees a stalled boundary and a tight onshore flow around the high, so it develops lift and moisture there in Ga and north FL. Then the next s/w in the Miss. Valley captures it and dvelops it more up the coast. A few models, had that too like Nogaps if I recall. The 18z and ECMWF looked a little different, its just active in the southern third of the country but its hard to say exactly when and where just yet. That map has a few things that stand out to me....First, there is a well defined 50/50 low deep enough to provide some aspects of blocking. Second, there is a strong damming high pressure in a favorable spot. Last, there is some cold air to work with. As a native here, I have followed cold air damming for years and this is a good set-up for it. Notice the -20 850's in northern New England......All of the good CAD's have -20C 850's in that area. One thing that could prevent it from happening is the amount of dry air that will have to become saturated before we can get any precip to over-run the wedge. I believe the models aren't handling the strenght of the confluence very well...... With the 1036mb pressure, the positioning of the high, and the the low 850's, the southeast should be colder than what is being shown.......just food for thought. Looks like worth watching but sometimes the models don't handle damming in such a fast flow properly. Since there's no neg. NAO or blocking, that 50/50 low in east Canada is free to march right on out of place pretty quickly, so the damming high is free to slide out too. And thats what the GFS shows happening. If you look at dewpoint temps just before it starts its a little damming looking, but it ends quickly. The dewpoints don't get down much below the 20's in NC just before the storm or moisture arrives, so it still appears to me too warm. I'd like to have a pretty big cushion of cold, and plenty dry air to work with for an icy damming situation. It could trend that way though, who knows. Without blocking, it has to be a nearly perfect timed event though, things are on the move in the northern branch. Meanwhile, it might not be over, since yet more northern s/w can dig down into the east just before yet another cutoff opens up and comes our way, maybe after Christmas. Its not boring for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Christmas card of the day comes from 18z gfs ensemble member # o4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 What, no live in-depth analysis of the 0z GFS? I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that it basically never even gets below freezing in the south for the entire run. There is a nice southern closed low at 384 hours -- southern CANADA, that is ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 What, no live in-depth analysis of the 0z GFS? I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that it basically never even gets below freezing in the south for the entire run. There is a nice southern closed low at 384 hours -- southern CANADA, that is ... Yeah it looks much different from its earlier runs. Ends up kind of similar to ECMWF for a while though. Just like the weekly fronts we're getting (tonights another example) that the models seem to miss at this time range, I highly doubt its going to be correct (even though its not that warm). I'm sure we'll have more amplified fronts come through with below 0 at 850, probably 2 or 3 more times in the next 384 hours. Meanwhile, look at the shenanigans the GGEM is pulling at 144 hours. If anyone gets snow between now in Christmas or thereabouts, it will probably be west of the Apps. I suspect a cutoff in the works sometime around then or maybe just afterwards, but thats just guessing. Overall though, the cold air is still mostly bottled in Canada (hard core cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Thanks, Robert. I have it in my head that it is going to be a stalled boundry that will give us what we want down the road. If nothing else it can guide a rain ladened gulf low up this way, so we can finally get some relief T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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