SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[beanskip]

Pretty nice upper low develops in the SE just after Christmas on the 6z GFS.

Yes, it's 264 hours and yes it's too far north to do much good for any of us.

[DaculaWeather]

Strat warming now showing up at 144 hours. http://www.daculaweather.com/stratosphere_temp.php

Now

144 Hours

240 hours

[Shawn]

Pretty nice upper low develops in the SE just after Christmas on the 6z GFS.

Yes, it's 264 hours and yes it's too far north to do much good for any of us.

The 1000-500mb thickness maps aren't too terrible from that time-frame. Although most the moisture has scooted out, it's still supportive of any left-over moisture being snowfall. I'm really wondering if the only chance the SE has right now is an upper level low to develop to bring it's own cold air. (:

[strongwxnc]

Good point. God I hope not. Fine line with system that produce its own cold air down south....

The 1000-500mb thickness maps aren't too terrible from that time-frame. Although most the moisture has scooted out, it's still supportive of any left-over moisture being snowfall. I'm really wondering if the only chance the SE has right now is an upper level low to develop to bring it's own cold air. (:

[nchighcountrywx]

January 2012:

Will this be what it looks like?

My bets are on this pattern.

[WeatherNC]

KATL is at +3.9 for the month... The overnight low of 60 last night for KATL was about +25 above normal, which is yet to be factored into the average. Although there is a good chance it will go lower before midnight tonight. Things have been a complete torch the last few days.

This has absolutely nothing to do with a pattern change... I am moving it to the monthly disco/obs, and please folks make sure what you are posting relates to the actual topic. CR has started a new medium-long range thread for the SE, maybe we can shake the mojo this one has been plaguing us with.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31055-medium-long-range-discussion/#entry1197520

[nchighcountrywx]

Will this be what our January 2012 pattern looks like?

My bets are on this:

(moving post here as other thread marked closed)

On a second thought, we have the mid-January thaw to worry about !

[Poimen]

With the PNA going positive, the GFS is still hinting at a potential southern style winter event in the longer range. Yeah, we'll have to thread a needle, and west of the apps might end up being the better spot if said storm does develop, but at least there's something to watch through Christmas.

[burgertime]

With the PNA going positive, the GFS is still hinting at a potential southern style winter event in the longer range. Yeah, we'll have to thread a needle, and west of the apps might end up being the better spot if said storm does develop, but at least there's something to watch through Christmas.

I was checking that out as well. Seems odd that it suppresses the moisture so much on that run. With the pattern we are in you would think there wouldn't be enough to keep the moisture so far south. Am looking forward to what the Euro comes out with today.

[franklin NCwx]

At 180 the cmc has a positive tilt trough with some cold air in Tenn. Looks like a fropa, backside flurries maybe in the mtns for Christmas day.

[DaculaWeather]

[buckeyefan1]

I see Goofy took away my Christmas rain, but brings me a nice COLD 33 and rain the 27th and 28th Delayed but not denied

[N.C.IceAge]

Last week, I was supposed to be wall-to-wall in the 70's and dry; was in the high 50's with rain most of the time. Who knows what the weather will command. I have no scientific background to say this - but going back a few generations of folks who I've known (dating to 1898 - Grandpa), the adage is -* warm before Christmas, brutal after New Year.* Let's hope the old folks had a clue, but in the meantime - Merry Christmas to all!

Here's some more old Weather Wisdom sayings to get you snow and winter time folks happy:

The nearer the new moon to Christmas day, the harder the winter. ( there will be a new moon Christmas Eve )

A warm November is the sign of a bad winter.

A warm Christmas, a cold Easter.

A green Christmas, a white Easter.

[WFFaithful]

[nchighcountrywx]

If that one pans out, our winter is toast. Hope it does not play out that way but I am afraid it will this year. A lot of people are hurting here in the NC High Country with the loss of the ski season so far. I hope we don't lose one of the ski slopes for good afer this winter.

[Lee]

If that one pans ou, winter is toast.Hope it does not play out that way but I am afraid it will this year.A lot of people are hurting here in the NC High Country with the loss of the ski season so far. I hope we don't lose one of the ski slopes for good afther this winter.

It appears they are basically showing what model data is depicting. Euro Monthlies as well as CFS. Either they are pretty much thinking the same pattern will continue.

[dsaur]

If that one pans out, our winter is toast. Hope it does not play out that way but I am afraid it will this year. A lot of people are hurting here in the NC High Country with the loss of the ski season so far. I hope we don't lose one of the ski slopes for good afer this winter.

Average...above average....it only means it could be 25 and a foot of snow and sleet 2 days this week, and next it is 83 for 4 days. Wouldn't bother me at all Now for snow makers, it's another thing entirely. T

[FoothillsNC]

the 06z GFS looks like a close call late next week for the TN to NC region. A Gulf low will be scooting by to the south (good rains in GA finally), meanwhile it has a moderate 1032 high sliding to the north of it in tandem . The cold air is very marginal, and really doesn't look cold enough to do the job yet, but its possible. Both models (GFS and ECM) have pretty decent confluent flow in the Northeast so if that high can slide in just in time, a damming event could occur. It will come down to timing, and if the high can push cold air in just before precip arrives. This is threading the needle and usually won't work out, but its something to watch. Otherwise ECMWF doesn't look good at all for cold air in most of the county. The GFS has brief shots of cold in the east, mainly from NC, northward through the run, with more upper lows and wet weather from Texas through the South.

We basically are still repeating the pattern, with slightly colder shots of air to work with each time, still not quite cold enough but now its getting closer for the upper South as we get deeper into Winter. The overall flow looks the same, with strong storms and huge vortices coming into Alaska, and brief ampflications in the East that bring quick in-and-out cold air , mostly from NC TN northward, and an active southwest Low that rolls east every so often. That kind of pattern is still very odd in my opinion, and eventually some (relatively small) area will get hit with a major snowstorm, when the timing works out. Definitely not a sustained cold anywhere type of pattern though.

[POWERSTROKE]

generally it don't work out like you said. But that is normal for around here, always cold day before or day after. Probably 33 and rain :thumbsup:

[FoothillsNC]

generally it don't work out like you said. But that is normal for around here, always cold day before or day after. Probably 33 and rain :thumbsup:

Yep. I actually like the look at the 5h map late next week, but the midweek system just doesn't "quite" pull down the cold air enough, almost though. The trouble for us is probably going to be getting enough cold air in place. Just saw the CMC out to 10 days and it also has a good gulf storm and some damming but probably would be 33 and rain for northern NC. But it does bring down a cold airmass after the storm and has the potential for a digging system right after that one, with cold air in place. But its alone in its outlook.

[POWERSTROKE]

Yep. I actually like the look at the 5h map late next week, but the midweek system just doesn't "quite" pull down the cold air enough, almost though. The trouble for us is probably going to be getting enough cold air in place. Just saw the CMC out to 10 days and it also has a good gulf storm and some damming but probably would be 33 and rain for northern NC. But it does bring down a cold airmass after the storm and has the potential for a digging system right after that one, with cold air in place. But its alone in its outlook.

I just one storm to pay for my winter. It would be a SHOCK to all the cliff divers on here. Looks like most have given up.

[franklin NCwx]

6z almost went nuts with an amplifyed system. Just a tad too late

Yep. I actually like the look at the 5h map late next week, but the midweek system just doesn't "quite" pull down the cold air enough, almost though. The trouble for us is probably going to be getting enough cold air in place. Just saw the CMC out to 10 days and it also has a good gulf storm and some damming but probably would be 33 and rain for northern NC. But it does bring down a cold airmass after the storm and has the potential for a digging system right after that one, with cold air in place. But its alone in its outlook.

[FoothillsNC]

I just one storm to pay for my winter. It would be a SHOCK to all the cliff divers on here. Looks like most have given up.

Seems a lot don't like the indices. But the bigger pattern is so far doing how I thought it was. We just had an upper low come through the Tenn Valley and Apps, dropping a little snow twice. It brushed DC and NYC , despite bad indices and a number of mets saying just before it hit how it was unlikely. We keep getting rain events from eastern Texas to the central Carolinas, including CLT back toward HSV MEM regions especially. Not to mention cold advection like this weekends tightly stratified 850 cold in NC and north. And all the upper lows that are ejecting from the Southwest, and now most models have them progressing further south so that a Gulf low or atleast Gulf moisture surges north near Christmas Eve (or just before or just after), with more possible damming showing up. If that pattern works out, the steady but slow progression into more close calls with Winter events, then that is a very good sign, in my opinion. This is a la nina, and given our areas propensity for dryness in all but Nino events over the last decade, its a really good sign to be getting all these events. I still think we have many opportunities to thread the needle, even though most will be rain. A couple of really big deals are possible anywhere in the Southeast this Winter just based on the pattern, not necessarily the indices. For western NC, this year is mirroring the 1986-87 year pretty nicely. I won't say we're going to repeat it exactly, but more than likely a foot snowstorm is possible in the foothills of the Apps this year, and another sweet spot seems around western Ky/Tn/Ms region. Its only December and once we get deeper into Winter, sometime in Jan or Feb a major upper low or slow moving cutoff will take the southern track with just enough cold air in place.

[POWERSTROKE]

Seems a lot don't like the indices. But the bigger pattern is so far doing how I thought it was. We just had an upper low come through the Tenn Valley and Apps, dropping a little snow twice. It brushed DC and NYC , despite bad indices and a number of mets saying just before it hit how it was unlikely. We keep getting rain events from eastern Texas to the central Carolinas, including CLT back toward HSV MEM regions especially. Not to mention cold advection like this weekends tightly stratified 850 cold in NC and north. And all the upper lows that are ejecting from the Southwest, and now most models have them progressing further south so that a Gulf low or atleast Gulf moisture surges north near Christmas Eve (or just before or just after), with more possible damming showing up. If that pattern works out, the steady but slow progression into more close calls with Winter events, then that is a very good sign, in my opinion. This is a la nina, and given our areas propensity for dryness in all but Nino events over the last decade, its a really good sign to be getting all these events. I still think we have many opportunities to thread the needle, even though most will be rain. A couple of really big deals are possible anywhere in the Southeast this Winter just based on the pattern, not necessarily the indices. For western NC, this year is mirroring the 1986-87 year pretty nicely. I won't say we're going to repeat it exactly, but more than likely a foot snowstorm is possible in the foothills of the Apps this year, and another sweet spot seems around western Ky/Tn/Ms region. Its only December and once we get deeper into Winter, sometime in Jan or Feb a major upper low or slow moving cutoff will take the southern track with just enough cold air in place.

i have no doubts we will get something. I just wish a tad colder, weeds growing everywhere on our properties. Need a week of freezing temps with highs in 40's for a while

[Cold Rain]

Just horrible:

Maybe even worse:

Like Robert said, the 6Z GFS is close to a Winter storm. The h5 setup looks very good. But the overall pattern is pretty sucky as far as the eye can see. You know it's bad when you can't even pin your hopes on the 384 GFS for a fantasy storm.

[WeatherNC]

0z GFS ens mems valid Christmas morning... I count 6/11 that have a somewhat cold look to them, and that is not including p002 which has a 1047 parked near Saranac Lake since 850's are above 0C for most, however, boarder-line epic cad if it verifies. Some evidence though Christmas day may be colder than originally thought and precip chances are still up for grabs.

[FallsLake]

0z GFS ens mems valid Christmas morning... I count 6/11 that have a somewhat cold look to them, and that is not including p002 which has a 1047 parked near Saranac Lake since 850's are above 0C for most, however, boarder-line epic cad if it verifies. Some evidence though Christmas day may be colder than originally thought and precip chances are still up for grabs.

I'll take what's behind panel #4.... I was looking at the Ensembles this morning as well, and it looks like a lot of the runs do show a colder look than the operational run. But we have seen this before. Christmas would be really close. as somebody stated it would have to be a perfect setup because of the overall bad pattern.

[FoothillsNC]

this isn't for us, but in the short term the next cutoff is going to do a number in the panhandles of Tx/Ok and spreading across Kansas. The new NAM and 6z GFS was very impressive and Dodge City is going with winter storm warnings and has a good discussion. Should be some foot+ totals out of this in and around southwest Kansas.

[WeatherNC]

Merry Christmas for the northern 1/3 of NC from the 12z GFS

Edit: surface temps are too warm though, 0C 10m isotherm only makes it into W MD and N WV

Christmas eve is looking rather cold, 1038mb HP settling into the Blacksburg CWA, 1036 kicker in upstate NY

[FoothillsNC]

12Z GFS doesn't look right to me. It has the southwest system coming in about 6 hours behind the good cold front, instead of in tandem/phase with it. I'd bet changes are coming big time with that setup. Either the first good cold front comes into the midsouth and lays down a stalled boundary for the next southwest low to come ina day or 2 later. Or, the strong Canadian cold front picks up the southwest system totally and we have a good rain event ahead of the incoming cold blast, and turning colder and dryer after it moves out Christmas weekend. Wait for ensembles. It still does have the cold and nw flow right after this event with a very tight gradient in the East, versus warmth and ridging out west. Usually thats a hallmark of action, somewhere along the East coast.