SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[pcbjr]

WeatherNC said above: "MJO is also a cluster atm, although not as bad as initially thought, some indications of a push into 6 or 7 over the next 10 days."

Not understanding all the implications of MJO yet (still learning) - would 6 not be too good but just "OK", 7 better, and 8/7 even better? Or am I way off?

[buckeyefan1]

WeatherNC said above: "MJO is also a cluster atm, although not as bad as initially thought, some indications of a push into 6 or 7 over the next 10 days."

Not understanding all the implications of MJO yet (still learning) - would 6 not be too good but just "OK", 7 better, and 8/7 even better? Or am I way off?

http://www.joss.ucar.edu/events/2011/climate_diag/presentations/wednesday/riddle_emily.pdf Pages 6 threw 9 should help answer your question

[pcbjr]

http://www.joss.ucar...iddle_emily.pdf Pages 6 threw 9 should help answer your question

Thanks, but the "clusters" are in raw language, just that to my limited noodle capacity. I'll keep trying to learn, but for now am simply wondering which of the 8 sectors is optimal for a colder SE winter.

[Amos83]

Man, summer is bruttal enough, I need to cold to balance out the heat.... if this year turns out to be the year of no winter I may jump of a cliff sometime in July.

[beanskip]

As a degreed meteorologist, it is less than honest for him to try to figure out less than plausible ways for the weather to impact areas which generate more revenue for him or his company. It is hardly immature for me to point out his continued used car sales mentality when it comes to the weather.

On another note, the new Euro monthlies are out today and the 850mb temp anomaly charts are warm all the way through the end of June....sigh...

I know those monthlies are only marginally useful, but, my goodness, it sure does feel like patterns like these tend to end later rather than sooner.

Even when I start doing basic model math (it takes 10-20 days for a modeled pattern shift to hold, then another 10-20 days for us to get a realistic chance at winter weather, then add 10 days because something always goes wrong), it feels like the clock is already going, apologies to Chris Berman, TICK tick tick tick TICK tick tick.

My heart is hoping for a reversal, but my gut tells me this is going to be a long, painful winter .....

[NEGa]

Just think how bad this thread would be if we hadn't had such good winters lately. I know that Im pretty mellowed out personally.

same here (well not completely mellowed out and would like to see snow or ice haha) - in the back of my mind i "know" that the se has had two fantastic back to back winters and a third in a row is just too unlikely. the sustained cold and snow the last couple of winters was amazing - and something i hadnt witnessed in ga in many many years

we got really lucky in nov and early dec the last two years when we did get a cold and stormy pattern locked in and could see the recurring storm tracks, etc. if the pattern this nov/early dec is any indication we are in for a less than thrilling and exciting winter

[buckeyefan1]

Thanks, but the "clusters" are in raw language, just that to my limited noodle capacity. I'll keep trying to learn, but for now am simply wondering which of the 8 sectors is optimal for a colder SE winter.

Allen has some pretty good information here... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html I believe 7 and 8 are what we would like to see, but I don't know a whole lot so I'll leave that answer up to someone that knows more

[Cold Rain]

On most of the videos iv'e seen of him, the southeast was mentioned. If he is such a bad meteorologist, then why is he so successful? If he busted so many times, then why would people not simply unsubscribe from him making his site a loss? His site is still up and I still see him sometimes on CNN and Fox News.

I think the reason is because he is simply entertainment. His forecasts do not bust every time. But he's made a name for himself being loud and very vocal about the weather and that's where his "value" is to those that follow him closely. I enjoy reading him and listening to his interviews, but if I want real and trustworthy analysis of the weather, I come here. I'm not going to bash him or praise him. He is what he is. And if people like him, it's not a problem to me.

[WeatherNC]

It took a couple minutes, but I have cleaned up the last page of JB crap, keep it on topic guys, if I have to move another JB post to banter, a pm is coming asking to stop.... Anyone want to start a SE medium range disco; this one is getting kind of stale. Separate from the monthly disco/obs, maybe an ongoing 7-14 day thread, model stuff mixed with tele-types, and what the heck ever. Please keep it kinda-serious without all the ot crap, if it gets out of hand I will move stuff as the thread progresses, a 1-2 week disco may be better than this one, which got off to a weak start, and finish. Under the 5-7 day window split it off if the threat warrants... Thank You

[oconeexman]

Thank you!! I believe will start seeing some of those long range fantasy storms for the first and middle of january very soon.

[FoothillsNC]

same here (well not completely mellowed out and would like to see snow or ice haha) - in the back of my mind i "know" that the se has had two fantastic back to back winters and a third in a row is just too unlikely. the sustained cold and snow the last couple of winters was amazing - and something i hadnt witnessed in ga in many many years

we got really lucky in nov and early dec the last two years when we did get a cold and stormy pattern locked in and could see the recurring storm tracks, etc. if the pattern this nov/early dec is any indication we are in for a less than thrilling and exciting winter

We may have a bad / warm Winter or two soon. Each year is really a guess, somewhat educated, but lots left to do for anybody to really claim accuracy, esp. like this year and the last couple that had some major conflicting indices. But I think the mistake everybody is probably making is that "what you have lived and seen in your lifetime, is just the way it is". I totally disagree with that philosophy, and its just plain old short-sightedness that can be chalked up to our human existence. Obviously the Southeast isn't a snowy or cold place...usually. But we've had plenty of periods where we went through cycles in which we DID have major snow after major snow or winter type storms, and nearly continuous cold. It's very similar to geologic time studies and creation (not to bring up a controversy) . But clearly if you look back at records and actual data, not just hand me down stories, but scientific data, we know that our area has not always been a snowless place in Winter, and we've had many patterns that were very Wintry, like the 1960s to 1970s and up to early 80s, very roughly, and again back in the late 1800's was a time where it was way different than most of our short lifetimes. If you look at the NAO cycle, we're clearly heading down, so the opportunities are coming (as evidenced since last 2 to 3 years) and we will have 25 to 30 years of above normal snow and below normal temps , relative to the last 30 years. The long term cycle can't be denied, but again in any one year or 2, or 3, there could be a spike, of course it doesn't show up that well in the long term since scaling is so large, but that is indeed the case: We are in a longer term average of neg. NAO, just like the period of 50's to early 80s, when things generally changed. Going back further there are cycles within cycles, and we can swing a huge amount for long periods of time that even exceed ones lifetime, like in the Maunder and Dalton minimums. Thats just the cycle of nature and weather, and we humans have such short lifespans that we think what we see is what we'll always get..imagine the shock of the folks who witnessed the 1960's period , esp. around and north of ATL through the Carolinas. If you have living relatives they can tell you some things about the storms and cold then, they thought the world was ending. Imagine how the Midatlantic and Northeast has felt the last few seasons when all time record snowstorms pelted them, like back to back 2 footers around DC? Folks thought it wouldn't happen because it never has in their lifetime, but is surely has happened way back when, and will happen again. Just not every spot will be the "sweet spot" in a cycle.

The way the pattern looks to me is for the best snow relative to normal this season to be in areas west of the apps close to MEM and Kentucky and again a second max in the western Carolinas to central VA. Part of the reason is because this season is paralleling 1986 -87 pretty well in terms of drought to rains, and warmth so far, and southwest cutoffs. We'll see though, each season has its own odd things, and it may be a dud totally. But the longer range definitely looks good, we've come through the snow drought years and boring winters mostly of the 80s to early mid 200s with hardly much to talk about. Remember how warm and dry the winters were in the Southeast basically from 2005 til 2008 or 2009? It was a yawner , with not much to follow, now we have loads and loads of events going on. Even though so far the interior areas are packing on precip, where from ATL to central Carolinas and eastern sections continue to get the edges of the events, with a pattern change, that can change quickly. And I wouldn't read too much into ECMWF monthlies, just look how it keeps blowing the eastern sections. Once again, we have a decent trough coming into the Carolinas this weekend, sure its quick and out of here, but its not a major ridge like it had shown. It's like the pattern is so active and wants to amplify every chance it gets, even though models can't see it too well far in advance. Can't say that everybody will get hit like last year, but I seriously doubt anything like 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 are in the cards for much of the Southeast.

[POWERSTROKE]

i am sure we will get something

[SN_Lover]

Here are the 18Z GFS NAO and AO ensembles. It looks like NAO might start decreasing soon. Hopefully the trend continues and we start January off with a negative NAO(wishfull thinking).

[Gastonwxman]

We may have a bad / warm Winter or two soon. Each year is really a guess, somewhat educated, but lots left to do for anybody to really claim accuracy, esp. like this year and the last couple that had some major conflicting indices. But I think the mistake everybody is probably making is that "what you have lived and seen in your lifetime, is just the way it is". I totally disagree with that philosophy, and its just plain old short-sightedness that can be chalked up to our human existence. Obviously the Southeast isn't a snowy or cold place...usually. But we've had plenty of periods where we went through cycles in which we DID have major snow after major snow or winter type storms, and nearly continuous cold. It's very similar to geologic time studies and creation (not to bring up a controversy) . But clearly if you look back at records and actual data, not just hand me down stories, but scientific data, we know that our area has not always been a snowless place in Winter, and we've had many patterns that were very Wintry, like the 1960s to 1970s and up to early 80s, very roughly, and again back in the late 1800's was a time where it was way different than most of our short lifetimes. If you look at the NAO cycle, we're clearly heading down, so the opportunities are coming (as evidenced since last 2 to 3 years) and we will have 25 to 30 years of above normal snow and below normal temps , relative to the last 30 years. The long term cycle can't be denied, but again in any one year or 2, or 3, there could be a spike, of course it doesn't show up that well in the long term since scaling is so large, but that is indeed the case: We are in a longer term average of neg. NAO, just like the period of 50's to early 80s, when things generally changed. Going back further there are cycles within cycles, and we can swing a huge amount for long periods of time that even exceed ones lifetime, like in the Maunder and Dalton minimums. Thats just the cycle of nature and weather, and we humans have such short lifespans that we think what we see is what we'll always get..imagine the shock of the folks who witnessed the 1960's period , esp. around and north of ATL through the Carolinas. If you have living relatives they can tell you some things about the storms and cold then, they thought the world was ending. Imagine how the Midatlantic and Northeast has felt the last few seasons when all time record snowstorms pelted them, like back to back 2 footers around DC? Folks thought it wouldn't happen because it never has in their lifetime, but is surely has happened way back when, and will happen again. Just not every spot will be the "sweet spot" in a cycle.

The way the pattern looks to me is for the best snow relative to normal this season to be in areas west of the apps close to MEM and Kentucky and again a second max in the western Carolinas to central VA. Part of the reason is because this season is paralleling 1986 -87 pretty well in terms of drought to rains, and warmth so far, and southwest cutoffs. We'll see though, each season has its own odd things, and it may be a dud totally. But the longer range definitely looks good, we've come through the snow drought years and boring winters mostly of the 80s to early mid 200s with hardly much to talk about. Remember how warm and dry the winters were in the Southeast basically from 2005 til 2008 or 2009? It was a yawner , with not much to follow, now we have loads and loads of events going on. Even though so far the interior areas are packing on precip, where from ATL to central Carolinas and eastern sections continue to get the edges of the events, with a pattern change, that can change quickly. And I wouldn't read too much into ECMWF monthlies, just look how it keeps blowing the eastern sections. Once again, we have a decent trough coming into the Carolinas this weekend, sure its quick and out of here, but its not a major ridge like it had shown. It's like the pattern is so active and wants to amplify every chance it gets, even though models can't see it too well far in advance. Can't say that everybody will get hit like last year, but I seriously doubt anything like 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 are in the cards for much of the Southeast.

Excellent post Robert. I wholeheartedly agree about all this. We may be living in the Southeast, but that doesn't change the fact that we get our fair share of fun periods. You can have the worst winter pattern and still through some miracle of everything coming together correctly, you could still get snow and potentially be at or above the norm out of just one storm, and I think some people don't realize that. Of course, the chance for something like that to occur in a horrendous pattern is slim to none but it's still there nonetheless. Whether or not this winter becomes one of those we can't say since this is only December, especially when January is our best month and yet some have already given up the entire season itself. I do, however, like the continuation of several systems to watch as we go deeper into winter, which keeps things interesting in the long range so at least it wouldn't become boring and one of these, assuming the colder side of things kick over in time, will be the one to produce a widespread winter storm across the Southeast. It would be even more exciting if we see that SSW event become stronger than anticipated, which could really make for some fun and games down the road since the stronger of these transient cold shots has stayed bottled up and assuming it were to be let loose, it will make itself well-known across the East. Everyone should know that every location can't expect to see snow even in a good pattern and so there will be moments where one part of a region of the US sees it as often as those who are climatologically-favored in the season sadly. Nonetheless, until this season ends it's anything goes for us and despite the way it has been trending for this month, I remain excited about future possibilities that could be in store for us so here's to a potential epic January and February.

[Cold Rain]

By mid-December last year, we were starting to hone in on what would become the Christmas Storm of 2010. Blocking was abundant and a strong -NAO and -AO dominated the pattern -- the La Nina pattern, which was supposed to be warm and dry across much of the SE. The entire Winter lay before us, and excitement and anticipation were running at peak levels.

One year later, much has changed. The anticipation of a third cold and snowy Winter has been tempered by a stubbornly positive AO and NAO. The MJO hasn't offered much in the way of assistance. Stratospheric temperatures have been running at record lows. The Polar Vortex is strong. The SE ridge is all too happy to pay a visit. And the PNA can't seem to remain in the positive phase. Yes, the deck is stacked against Winter in the Southeast, so it would seem.

I don't have any maps with which to offer much hope. I don't have enough expertise with sudden stratospheric warming events to build any anticipation of a lasting pattern change. And I don't have enough research with analogue patterns to compare this year to similar historical ones. But I do have a lifetime of experience of SE weather. And what I can tell you is that at some point, the cold will come. At some point, there will be storms to follow. At some point, the pattern will change. Maybe it won't last. Maybe it will. But at some point, we'll all be staying up for the 0Z Euro runs, anticipating the 0C 850 line to be south of our location. Until then, enjoy the warmth, while it lasts, and enjoy the friendship of the best group of posters on any board, right here in the SE forum.

Now, because Christmas is coming into range of the long range sensors, there is talk of a possible <gulp> Winter storm of some kind in the SE.

Here is the 18Z 264 GFS:

Here is the 0Z 216 CMC that generated some excitement:

The GFS looks like a frontal passage, but the CMC develops a storm and moves it up the coast. One critical element that I like to see is a strong Arctic high pressure system near the Lakes, ridging east and southeast. That is missing. Also, the storm track has been west and north of where the Canadian is showing, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the system wind up more northwest, if it actually comes to pass.

Whether December offers any Wintry weather or not, I feel like we'll get several chances in January. So even if we don't get any Wintry weather for a while, I hope you all have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

[griteater]

Here's a 12 month running average of the NAO going back to 1950 from commoditywx.com...

[pcbjr]

Last week, I was supposed to be wall-to-wall in the 70's and dry; was in the high 50's with rain most of the time. Who knows what the weather will command. I have no scientific background to say this - but going back a few generations of folks who I've known (dating to 1898 - Grandpa), the adage is - warm before Christmas, brutal after New Year. Let's hope the old folks had a clue, but in the meantime - Merry Christmas to all!

[Mr Bob]

Ok, this anti-Joe Bastardi campaign has got to stop. It is immature and disrespectful towards a degreed meteorologist.

So this post and a few others stay and mine gets moved to banter.....really, WeatherNC?

If he is such a bad meteorologist, then why is he so successful?

What determines success in your mind? Joe has an incredible knowledge base...nothing to do with his talent; he is certainly not a bad met...it is how he uses it ( and you for that matter) that is the problem.

[Mr Bob]

Here's a 12 month running average of the NAO going back to 1950 from commoditywx.com...

In every pattern there are movements away from the trend and they are crucial to determining how a season may go. This one has shown a short term departure from a longer trend and we must deal with it. This was a key to this winter that should have been considered as we headed through September, October and November. One that was pointed out by my coworker, and that showed that the supremely cold December that many notable and excellent mets forecasted that had to be challenged this year.

The turn in the models recently to signs of some stratospheric warming over the next couple of weeks(though not the strong warming we want to see yet) combined with the drop in solar activity and decline in the QBO certainly sheds some hope that the back end of winter may yet hold some hope is what should be keyed on now....it may not pan out but there is at least some interest that this will not be a washout of a winter all the way through.

Finally, all of us mets are going to be wrong at some point (many points more likely)...I certainly do not harbor the idea that I know what is going to happen. If that were the case, then assuredly Bill Gates would be my butler.

[SN_Lover]

So this post and a few others stay and mine gets moved to banter.....really, WeatherNC?

What determines success in your mind? Joe has an incredible knowledge base...nothing to do with his talent; he is certainly not a bad met...it is how he uses it ( and you for that matter) that is the problem.

The second half of my comment provided observations regarding the thread. That's probably they it stayed "Anyways, we are now beginning to see a downward trend in the NAO and AO. The past 3 runs of the GFS's ensembles has shown the NAO and AO staying positive (X>12/18/11 day)."

I don't find fault with how he uses it. But I guess that's where we both have to agree to disagree.

[Mr Bob]

The second half of my comment provided observations regarding the thread. That's probably they it stayed "Anyways, we are now beginning to see a downward trend in the NAO and AO. The past 3 runs of the GFS's ensembles has shown the NAO and AO staying positive (X>12/18/11 day)."

I don't find fault with how he uses it. But I guess that's where we both have to agree to disagree.

Second half of my post discussed the Euro monthlies so I am not sure what your point is. My beef is not really with you anyway...it is about selective moderation.

[griteater]

In every pattern there are movements away from the trend and they are crucial to determining how a season may go. This one has shown a short term departure from a longer trend and we must deal with it. This was a key to this winter that should have been considered as we headed through September, October and November. One that was pointed out by my coworker, and that showed that the supremely cold December that many notable and excellent mets forecasted that had to be challenged this year.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you are saying that the NAO was largely positive from Sept-Nov, and that forecasters should have given consideration to that trend continuing into December. Makes sense, but at the same time, I don't see how forecasters could have predicted +NAO for Dec given how the NAO was markedly negative for June/July/Aug (and most outlooks were made in Oct).

[dsaur]

I'm on board! Any thread started by you commands my attention, and one at Christmas doubly so Looking to the 29th for the big storm. Last year it was over by early Feb. This year it won't get started until after XMas. And next year at this time we'll be doing the play by play of the end of the Mayan civilization, lol. T

[NavarreDon]

Not a lot of optimism for this thread but you never know. Here is the GSP long term for next week.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE EXT

RANGE FCST. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND THE MODELS

CONTINUE TO POSSESS TIMING/MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER

WAVE/LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY A FAST

AND WEAK OUTLIER AND EVEN IT/S OWN ENS MEAN SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A

SLOWER AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW SUCH AS THE ECMWF/CMC ARE ADVERTISING.

IN ANY CASE...THE GOING POPS ARE FINE WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH

CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY TUE...AND LINGERING DECENT CHANCE POPS INTO

LATE WED AS EITHER A COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES OVERHEAD. ONE

FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE WAS A QUICKER CUTOFF OF PRECIP WED

EVENING AS THE OP MODELS AND THE DPROG/DT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE

FAVOR THIS SCENARIO. WITH THE PERSISTENT AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG

SUB/TROP HIGH KEEPING THE COLDER THICKNESSES TO THE NORTH AND WEST

OF THE FCST AREA...NO MAJOR PRECIP P/TYPE ISSUES ARE HAD...HOWEVER

THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF -SNSH ACROSS THE HIGHEST NC MTN

ELEVATIONS MON NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL COOLING.

THE MAIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFFSHORE MON AND

ALLOW A RELATIVELY AND DEEP WARM RETURN FLOW THROUGH WED. MAX TEMPS

SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM REACHING AROUND 60 NON/MTNS...M50S MTN

VALLEYS TUE AND WED. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM SHOULD

BE MODIFIED ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SHARP TEMP DECREASE THU AND FRI AND

STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[franklin NCwx]

The cmc still likes the idea of phasing the two streams, just a little later on this run. Take it FWIW tho, its 200 hours out.

[burgertime]

The cmc still likes the idea of phasing the two streams, just a little later on this run. Take it FWIW tho, its 200 hours out.

Verbatim though on the 00z run temps were not cold enough to support snow like they were on the previous 00z run. It would appear though that the GFS is hinting at something just after Christmas though for NC possibly.

[franklin NCwx]

the gfs seems to like the week after Christmas. The ensemble mean off of Allans site has below normal temps for the the southeast in that timeframe. Checking the the ensemble mean of the euro, cmc, and the gfs for christmas day. All three keep a trough in the east. So hopefully it will at least feel like Christmas outside even if its not snowing.

Verbatim though on the 00z run temps were not cold enough to support snow like they were on the previous 00z run. It would appear though that the GFS is hinting at something just after Christmas though for NC possibly.

[BullCityWx]

The way the teleconnections look, I'd say there's less than a 5% chance that the pattern changes before new years and a 65-75% chance that KCLT is +5 by the end of the month(already at +3.8).

[Cold Rain]

You know it's bad when not even the 384 hr GFS has anything worth looking at. The 240 Euro has a decent PNA ridge....and also a decent SE ridge.

No sign of any blocking yet though.

[Shawn]

0z CMC does support a little light snow shower/flizzard on the 25th north of SC. Not much to look at though.

Also, the 06z GFS did want to really deepen the cold behind the low developing in the gulf area.