SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[GaWx]

The common expectation on the board is that "good pattern" means cold and stormy and "bad pattern" means warm and dry. Playing these semantic games to try to elicit a "gotcha" is pathetic.

It isn't that simple. For example, many here have said they prefer warm and dry to cold and dry. So, calling warm and dry "bad" is not only too simplistic but is also just plain wrong for many. In addition to those who prefer a warm winter, I've gotten the impression that all many here care about getting in winter is snow (and other forms of wintry precip. for many of these people). Cold and dry seems to bore many of the posters here to death, meaning it is a "bad" pattern for them.

[FoothillsNC]

It isn't that simple. For example, many here have said they prefer warm and dry to cold and dry. So, calling warm and dry "bad" is not only too simplistic but is also just plain wrong for many. In addition to those who prefer a warm winter, I've gotten the impression that all many here care about geting in winter is snow (and other forms of wintry precip. for many of these people). Cold and dry seems to bore many of the posters here to death, meaning it is a "bad" pattern for them.

I agree with you Larry, I love the warmer weather, and boring stretches. As long as its mixed with all the other kinds of weather, and I'm not solely here for the cold and snow or anything Wintry. The snowbirds are beginning to show up now, as its November, and of course that's expected, but I enjoy posting year-round, regardless of season or precip. I posted constantly during a severe drought, when there's nothing really going on, but that probably says more about me being an addict rather than on here for anything weatherwise. I think Widre is just itching for a warm, snowless Winter for the simple reason it would bust some forecasts and he could say "I told you so". To each his own.

[BullCityWx]

The common expectation on the board is that "good pattern" means cold and stormy and "bad pattern" means warm and dry. Playing these semantic games to try to elicit a "gotcha" is pathetic.

That was my point. If he's only on the weather side to try and get in some gotcha moments, he doesnt need to be contributing over here.

[WidreMann]

It isn't that simple. For example, many here have said they prefer warm and dry to cold and dry. So, calling warm and dry "bad" is not only too simplistic but is also just plain wrong for many. In addition to those who prefer a warm winter, I've gotten the impression that all many here care about getting in winter is snow (and other forms of wintry precip. for many of these people). Cold and dry seems to bore many of the posters here to death, meaning it is a "bad" pattern for them.

You can try to bring up a few anecdotes, but a lot of the members on this board, especially the more vocal ones, prefer cold and stormy. This is a forum generally for people who like cold and stormy. That is well known. If you don't realize that, you aren't paying enough attention. Even if there are people who like warm and dry in the winter, that doesn't change the default meaning of "good pattern" and "bad pattern". I know you think you are making a point, but it's a dumb one.

[superjames1992]

Are people seriously freaking out and canceling winter in mid-November?

KGSO averages a whole inch of snow in December (and KRDU even less, I would assume). We've had more than our due in recent years. The real snows come in January and February in most cases, so I'm not going to freak out just because it looks like we're going to start off December on the warm side.

[Brick Tamland]

Seriously, it's just November. And in NC it seems we always have a big warm up right before the bottom falls out and it gets cold. It's like someone hits a switch and then...BAM! Winter is here.

[nrgjeff]

Key teleconnections in Asia and the Bering Sea are missing this December for cold, compared to last year. In fact it is looking like 2006 when the Southeast blowtorched in Dec. Granted, Jan/Feb of 2007 came in closer to normal, but I will limit this to Dec. Two weeks ago this year was looking like last year or 2000 but it is now going the direction of 2006. Though Greenland is trying to block up, a strong Gulf of Alaska low is lingering in the wake of the super blizzard up there. That GOA low should flood the Plains with warm air and cut off cold delivery to the Southeast. The Great Lakes may be cold due to the only moderate -NAO forecast, but it won't make it into the Southeast. Though Asian snowcover is catching up, the very high atmospheric response over Asia is missing for cold in North America.

I would not use models for this month out forecast, but the European is certainly better than the GFS. Ensembles of each are also better; so, European ensembles would be a somewhat useful tool. Teleconnections are generally better. The scientific method calls for simply analyzing the data, not trying to prove our pre-conceived notions. I'll leave it at that regarding all the emotion on this topic.

The only caution to the mild forecast is how the same reliable European (weekly chart) model missed the Dec cold exactly a year ago on mid-November forecasts. I generally don't like to fight the same war twice, so I am looking for better evidence to call for a pattern change. Looking forward to mild weather for the Thanksgiving Christmas lighting ceremonies. I love not freezing!

[strongwxnc]

Thanks for your input!

However, I would love to have a cold thanksgiving

Key teleconnections in Asia and the Bering Sea are missing this December for cold, compared to last year. In fact it is looking like 2006 when the Southeast blowtorched in Dec. Granted, Jan/Feb of 2007 came in closer to normal, but I will limit this to Dec. Two weeks ago this year was looking like last year or 2000 but it is now going the direction of 2006. Though Greenland is trying to block up, a strong Gulf of Alaska low is lingering in the wake of the super blizzard up there. That GOA low should flood the Plains with warm air and cut off cold delivery to the Southeast. The Great Lakes may be cold due to the only moderate -NAO forecast, but it won't make it into the Southeast. Though Asian snowcover is catching up, the very high atmospheric response over Asia is missing for cold in North America.

I would not use models for this month out forecast, but the European is certainly better than the GFS. Ensembles of each are also better; so, European ensembles would be a somewhat useful tool. Teleconnections are generally better. The scientific method calls for simply analyzing the data, not trying to prove our pre-conceived notions. I'll leave it at that regarding all the emotion on this topic.

The only caution to the mild forecast is how the same reliable European (weekly chart) model missed the Dec cold exactly a year ago on mid-November forecasts. I generally don't like to fight the same war twice, so I am looking for better evidence to call for a pattern change. Looking forward to mild weather for the Thanksgiving Christmas lighting ceremonies. I love not freezing!

[WidreMann]

Seriously, it's just November. And in NC it seems we always have a big warm up right before the bottom falls out and it gets cold. It's like someone hits a switch and then...BAM! Winter is here.

Oftentimes we call that warmup "summer".

[SN_Lover]

Oftentimes we call that warmup "summer".

Yes, a Indian Summer

"Indian summer A brief respite in the late autumn of North America, characterized by hazy, balmy weather. This expression is thought to have originated in New England, where the Indians took advantage of the unseasonably warm spell to make their final winter preparations. The term is used frequently in the northern United States and Canada, where this short reappearance of summer regularly occurs each fall.Meanwhile the Indian summer continued warm and dusty on the trodden earth of the farmyard. (J. Rae, Custard Boys, 1960)

Like other terms denoting time of year or day, Indian summer is often analogously applied to one’s life, indicating a period of renewed vigor or health amidst a stage of general decline.

The works of his Indian Summer when, in the last five years of his life, inspiration came to him once more. (N. Del Mar, Richard Strauss, 1962)"(thefreedictionary.com)

Edit: Could you please go troll elsewhere? Your posts have no scientific contribution to the discussion.

[FoothillsNC]

I would not use models for this month out forecast, but the European is certainly better than the GFS. Ensembles of each are also better; so, European ensembles would be a somewhat useful tool. Teleconnections are generally better. The scientific method calls for simply analyzing the data, not trying to prove our pre-conceived notions. I'll leave it at that regarding all the emotion on this topic.

The only caution to the mild forecast is how the same reliable European (weekly chart) model missed the Dec cold exactly a year ago on mid-November forecasts.

I started on these boards the winter of 08/09 so I haven't been around these boards for a truly bad winter. I am not saying this is going to be a bad winter (snowless) but I can't imagine what things are going to be like come January if things are not looking up. The good news if this is a warmish winter it will at least save us money on our heating bills.

I disagree about the European being better than GFS. I know there's probably some verification charts out there that show differently, but from what I've viewed this year in North America it's been the opposite...GFS operational outperformed it. Numerous times it evolved toward GFS on many events, including big events through the year. I know thats a stark reversal in roles though. Both have their moments and patterns they do better in.

[burgertime]

I disagree about the European being better than GFS. I know there's probably some verification charts out there that show differently, but from what I've viewed this year in North America it's been the opposite...GFS operational outperformed it. Numerous times it evolved toward GFS on many events, including big events through the year. I know thats a stark reversal in roles though. Both have their moments and patterns they do better in.

I agree doing the PBP it seemed like the GFS was keeping the Euro honest during winter (not sure if those were the big events you were speaking of) it seemed the GFS just over played the cold in the long range much more so than the Euro. They both seemed to do better than the NAM which would have wild swings from run to run. What would be interesting is to see how the Canadian did. IIRC it was spot on a lot of times with the storms. Of course I could be wrong, I might try this year to screen cap LR from Euro and GFS just to see what pans out.

[FoothillsNC]

I agree doing the PBP it seemed like the GFS was keeping the Euro honest during winter (not sure if those were the big events you were speaking of) it seemed the GFS just over played the cold in the long range much more so than the Euro. They both seemed to do better than the NAM which would have wild swings from run to run. What would be interesting is to see how the Canadian did. IIRC it was spot on a lot of times with the storms. Of course I could be wrong, I might try this year to screen cap LR from Euro and GFS just to see what pans out.

Seems like around the last big time the ECMWF scored a big coup in the Southeast was the Christmas storm. After that, each additional storm came closer to being more accurately portrayed by GFS so thats when the switch occurred. From there straight through Spring it continued, the GFS showed the several outbreaks first, both literally at just at the 5H setup, whereas ECMWF missed until late. It had a huge trough and 7 contour cutoff progged once just 5 days out, that turned out to be massively wrong. Just in our own neck of the woods, the GFS showed minor details like derecho events that didnt' show up on ECMWF, had quite a few of those as well.There's been a lot of times this past Spring and Summer (dont think you were around much) that GFS had a 2 day lead before the ECMWF came around, and not just here, but nationwide on the placement of every little thing. The ECMWF overdone temps a few times in heat waves here and in the western lower midwest, but thats a temp thing and I don't discredit it too much on extreme temps (but again GFS seems to have nailed low level temps better--and certainly in damming events here locally it has). I'm wondering when we get closer to Winter if the GFS reverts to its usual south and east bias, cold bias.

[Brick Tamland]

Oftentimes we call that warmup "summer".

Is it summer now? I think we call the season we are in now autumn.

[superjames1992]

I disagree about the European being better than GFS. I know there's probably some verification charts out there that show differently, but from what I've viewed this year in North America it's been the opposite...GFS operational outperformed it. Numerous times it evolved toward GFS on many events, including big events through the year. I know thats a stark reversal in roles though. Both have their moments and patterns they do better in.

Watch out, Robert. It is clique around here to constantly trash the GFS (or GooFuS) and praise the almighty Euro, even when the evidence is contradictory. I guess one can't let facts get in the way of a nice story. The Euro is infallible.

[LithiaWx]

Seems like around the last big time the ECMWF scored a big coup in the Southeast was the Christmas storm. After that, each additional storm came closer to being more accurately portrayed by GFS so thats when the switch occurred. From there straight through Spring it continued, the GFS showed the several outbreaks first, both literally at just at the 5H setup, whereas ECMWF missed until late. It had a huge trough and 7 contour cutoff progged once just 5 days out, that turned out to be massively wrong. Just in our own neck of the woods, the GFS showed minor details like derecho events that didnt' show up on ECMWF, had quite a few of those as well.There's been a lot of times this past Spring and Summer (dont think you were around much) that GFS had a 2 day lead before the ECMWF came around, and not just here, but nationwide on the placement of every little thing. The ECMWF overdone temps a few times in heat waves here and in the western lower midwest, but thats a temp thing and I don't discredit it too much on extreme temps (but again GFS seems to have nailed low level temps better--and certainly in damming events here locally it has). I'm wondering when we get closer to Winter if the GFS reverts to its usual south and east bias, cold bias.

Didn't the GFS and Euro both undergo recent "upgrades"? Maybe the upgrade did more for the GFS then the Euro.

[burgertime]

Seems like around the last big time the ECMWF scored a big coup in the Southeast was the Christmas storm. After that, each additional storm came closer to being more accurately portrayed by GFS so thats when the switch occurred. From there straight through Spring it continued, the GFS showed the several outbreaks first, both literally at just at the 5H setup, whereas ECMWF missed until late. It had a huge trough and 7 contour cutoff progged once just 5 days out, that turned out to be massively wrong. Just in our own neck of the woods, the GFS showed minor details like derecho events that didnt' show up on ECMWF, had quite a few of those as well.There's been a lot of times this past Spring and Summer (dont think you were around much) that GFS had a 2 day lead before the ECMWF came around, and not just here, but nationwide on the placement of every little thing. The ECMWF overdone temps a few times in heat waves here and in the western lower midwest, but thats a temp thing and I don't discredit it too much on extreme temps (but again GFS seems to have nailed low level temps better--and certainly in damming events here locally it has). I'm wondering when we get closer to Winter if the GFS reverts to its usual south and east bias, cold bias.

Fun thread to read back through...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/4066-christmas-storm/

[WidreMann]

Is it summer now? I think we call the season we are in now autumn.

No, it's not summer, it's just you missing the joke.

[Brick Tamland]

No, it's not summer, it's just you missing the joke.

No, I got what you were trying to say. I'm just saying it's not summer now and it's warm. We always seem to get a week like this in November before the cold comes.

[BullCityWx]

baby steps:

[griteater]

Both the Euro and GFS Ensembles show a cool down around Thanksgiving, but it's transient. No end in site to the monster vortex over Alaska / Yukon

[SN_Lover]

Well iv'e been studying teleconnections, ESNO, solar, etc in relation to previous years. One conclusion I came to, is that the trough will be further north from where it was last winter. All the key years i'm looking at, suggest that. This means warmer than last winter for North Carolina. Final thoughts will be up next week.

@WidreMann There is a Banter thread that you can post at. Thought I would let you know what.

[nrgjeff]

The clique is the one focusing on precip. Especially snow. The GFS has been handling the track of lows better lately. The Euro has by far and away the best temperature verification over the last year. Well, last 10 years...

Seriously, it depends on your forecast goal. Great that you notice the strengths and weaknesses of the models. Temperature is my main concern. Of course I like a good snow or severe event too.

Watch out, Robert. It is clique around here to constantly trash the GFS (or GooFuS) and praise the almighty Euro, even when the evidence is contradictory. I guess one can't let facts get in the way of a nice story. The Euro is infallible.

[burgertime]

The clique is the one focusing on precip. Especially snow. The GFS has been handling the track of lows better lately. The Euro has by far and away the best temperature verification over the last year. Well, last 10 years...

Seriously, it depends on your forecast goal. Great that you notice the strengths and weaknesses of the models. Temperature is my main concern. Of course I like a good snow or severe event too.

The clique is to trash whichever model calls a storm a few times in a row and doesn't verify. Hehe, rather that be the NAM, GFS or the Euro all seem to be "garbage" when a storm busts.

I've wondered why spaghetti plots aren't used more around here for long range. Is it because I'm confused and they aren't used for LR forecasting? Or is it just many don't have access to them?

[LithiaWx]

12Z GFS ENS continues the good news.... Look at the PNA going positive!

+PNA

-NAO

neutral AO

Teleconnections look much better after day 10 or so.... If these values verify and get stronger we could see a pattern change in the works... This is being very optimistic but hey there IS hope.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

12Z GFS ENS continues the good news.... Look at the PNA going positive!

+PNA

-NAO

neutral AO

Teleconnections look much better after day 10 or so.... If these values verify and get stronger we could see a pattern change in the works... This is being very optimistic but hey there IS hope.

Looks like the LR GFS might have been on to something after all. Not ready to bite just yet, but things are looking better than they did a week ago this time.

[dsaur]

Looks like the LR GFS might have been on to something after all. Not ready to bite just yet, but things are looking better than they did a week ago this time.

I'd be surprised if it doesn't find away to be real raw on Tday. Tony

[Mr Bob]

even when the evidence is contradictory. I guess one can't let facts get in the way of a nice story.

Feel free to show your evidence....Stories are great....I have plenty myself which is why I preface many things with anecdotally speaking....

[andyhb]

GFS still advertising a major trough 192 hrs and beyond.

[Gastonwxman]

0z run of the GFS seems to fit what Larry's thinking regarding the potential pattern change:

http://www.examiner....ovember-17-2011

Interesting bit from his post:

"As for the holiday weekend itself, that nice start could fade by Saturday. The numerical models are emphasizing a potentially gigantic (what we call full-latitude in meteorology) storm forming over the Texas Panhandle around November 26. It is this feature which may create possibilities for an amplified jet stream over much of North America (and being a hazard to air and ground travelers in the November 27 - 28 time frame). IF the low deepens and heads over the lower Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley (as I think it will), we could see the formation of a blocking signature over the Ungava Peninsula into Baffin island and Greenland (-NAO) as we head into December.

And therein lies the chance for colder temperatures east of the Rocky Mountains, after more than a few false starts."