Brick Tamland Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 If you think back to last winter, we saw a -AO/-NAO/-PNA pattern for the entire month of December. The -AO/-NAO pattern was the mechanism for delivering and locking in the cold air, overwelming the negative effects of the -PNA. As we moved into January, the +PNA kicked in at times to aid the cold air delivery as the AO/NAO flipped back and forth - and +. So, both the -NAO and +PNA are patterns that can deliver cold air. If relying solely on a +PNA pattern, you are likely going to have to rely on proper timing of the cold air with storm systems to get a widespread winter storm...whereas a sustained -NAO pattern can sustain the cold air longer and widen the timing window for potential winter storms. And even with that we only saw three snow events in this area last winter, two in December and one in January. That's why I think this winter could be a dud. Maybe we can get one huge storm, though. What was pattern like before the Carolina Crusher of January 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 And even with that we only saw three snow events in this area last winter, two in December and one in January. That's why I think this winter could be a dud. Maybe we can get one huge storm, though. What was pattern like before the Carolina Crusher of January 2000? Can't say for everyone else but most of the snows, for my area, don't come until Jan and Feb..From what i've seen if it snow in Nov usually thats the end of snow and sometimes in Dec as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Can't say for everyone else but most of the snows, for my area, don't come until Jan and Feb..From what i've seen if it snow in Nov usually thats the end of snow and sometimes in Dec as well. What is your area? Could you update that in your profile, so that we could better understand your comments in context of your locale? I know your avatar is Northern Foothills, but are we talking GA, SC, NC, TN, or VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 What is your area? Could you update that in your profile, so that we could better understand your comments in context of your locale? I know your avatar is Northern Foothills, but are we talking GA, SC, NC, TN, or VA? Well technically it's Mt.Airy N C but i'm about 10 mile SW on Haystack Road 1200 ft in evevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Absolutely. I had around eight inches on the first one. I had seven on the second one. I do think what tnweathernut is tryng to say is that it's been quite some time since we have had +1 foot of snow in a storm. I thought you Rocky Top-ers always got downsloped You guys must do well with cold Miller B's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 [Well technically it's Mt.Airy N C but i'm about 10 mile SW on Haystack Road 1200 ft in evevation. [/quote Your right next door to another famous snowman that post on here "Big Frosty"] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I thought you Rocky Top-ers always got downsloped You guys must do well with cold Miller B's Downsloping is always a possibility and we can score with Miller B's, but it's the exception, not the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Absolutely. I had around eight inches on the first one. I had seven on the second one. I do think what tnweathernut is tryng to say is that it's been quite some time since we have had +1 foot of snow in a storm. Yes, this is what I am saying. I guess perception is a BIG thing here. Where we live, we shouldn't have to wait 14-15 years for a snowstorm to drop a foot. (and yes I know I could simply drive to the mountains, but there is something about sitting at your own house and seeing a big one verify) Since all this is probably banter, back on topic...............can anyone with access tell me what the 12z GFS looks like in the extended? Still throwing us glancing blows as far as cold goes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yes, this is what I am saying. I guess perception is a BIG thing here. Where we live, we shouldn't have to wait 14-15 years for a snowstorm to drop a foot. (and yes I know I could simply drive to the mountains, but there is something about sitting at your own house and seeing a big one verify) Since all this is probably banter, back on topic...............can anyone with access tell me what the 12z GFS looks like in the extended? Still throwing us glancing blows as far as cold goes? It shows over one foot of additional snow for north Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Well technically it's Mt.Airy N C but i'm about 10 mile SW on Haystack Road 1200 ft in evevation. sounds like you close to mitchell river, devotion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 sounds like you close to mitchell river, devotion? Haystack Road to be exact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS pops a -NAO near the end of the run. Ensembles don't support it though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Well, looks like we are ready to write off the first half of January as well as of now. Our best hopes for anything is a level of a Stratospheric Warming event to re-arrange things. It is not looking good at all for the ski slopes for Christmas to New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Well, looks like we are ready to write off the first half of January as well as of now. Yikes! It's Dec 14. We're now cancelling until atleast after Jan 15?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Well, looks like we are ready to write off the first half of January as well as of now. Our best hopes for anything is a level of a Stratospheric Warming event to re-arrange things. It is not looking good at all for the ski slopes for Christmas to New Years. Brutal picture. Any idea on when was the latest they have been able to get the slopes going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yikes! It's Dec 14. We're now cancelling until atleast after Jan 15?? Good thing some of the people on here were not here back in the late 70's and 80's .Winter did't get started here til Jan .I was in high school in the late 70's and we had some big snow back then.We were in a cold cycle ,which from what i've read were entering another one as well .In high school I can't remember ever having snow before Jan and Feb was good as well as a few in March.All i'm saying is don't through in the towel .Winter doesn't afficially statrt til 21st.I know it hard to get up for winter when it in the 60's 10 days before christmas.It cdepress me but i've got faith that thing will change.Saw wether like this back in the 70's then a week or two later snowstorm would hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I thought you Rocky Top-ers always got downsloped You guys must do well with cold Miller B's Downsloping for sure. It can enhance snowfall, but usually it takes it away. Very nice. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yikes! It's Dec 14. We're now cancelling until atleast after Jan 15?? Im not brother! Were not even into "primetime" for this area. It will snow somewhere close by or all over our area in January....almost a guarantee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Bold outlook for why Snow and cold are coming despite Warm Forecast. Sounds like your reading JB with all the pattern recognition, rubber-band terminolgy e.t.c. But it is a good read. Not sure who this guy/gal is that writes this post. Enjoy http://weathermanusa.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Bold outlook for why Snow and cold are coming despite Warm Forecast. Sounds like your reading JB with all the pattern recognition, rubber-band terminolgy e.t.c. But it is a good read. Not sure who this guy/gal is that writes this post. Enjoy http://weathermanusa.com/ "I just know it's coming...it has to snap back the other way..." This always bothers me since a rubber band returns to its normal state...it does not contract the opposite way it is stretched. Our normal state is not cold and snowy. At any rate, if nothing else, today's version of the Euro ensembles at least shows a +PNA in the mid range all the way through Day 15...if nothing else it will not torch much here and the large amounts of rain that Robert alluded to in the other thread should come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 "I just know it's coming...it has to snap back the other way..." This always bothers me since a rubber band returns to its normal state...it does not contract the opposite way it is stretched. Our normal state is not cold and snowy. At any rate, if nothing else, today's version of the Euro ensembles at least shows a +PNA in the mid range all the way through Day 15...if nothing else it will not torch much here and the large amounts of rain that Robert alluded to in the other thread should come to fruition. You've clearly never shot yourself in the eye with a rubber band on accident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Something has changed whether or not it is visible in the pattern. I totaled 6.22" of rain in Nov.. Half way through December I have only gotten 0.67". We would be way in the plus for December as well if it wasn't for being on the western fringes of the last event. It hit the foothills/Mtns pretty well. I'm sure you would agree that was a blessing and not a curse for once. This has been the wettest Fall I can remember. From the looks of things theres more to come hopefully. It will only be a matter of time as we head into climo favored JAN/FEB that one of these juiced up systems finally meets some cold air in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 You've clearly never shot yourself in the eye with a rubber band on accident You would be surprised.... Has there ever been a time that JB has not hinted at severe cold and snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yes, last Jan and Feb. I remember his forecast for those two months was for warmth in the east. You would be surprised.... Has there ever been a time that JB has not hinted at severe cold and snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yes, last Jan and Feb. I remember his forecast for those two months was for warmth in the east. it was a bit of a rhetorical question...Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 You would be surprised.... Has there ever been a time that JB has not hinted at severe cold and snow? For the southeast? Yes! But does it count if he doesn't know what the Southeastern US is? I'm still confused how he keeps so many followers especially people in this region. Must be some sort of hypnotic phrasing he uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 For the southeast? Yes! But does it count if he doesn't know what the Southeastern US is? I'm still confused how he keeps so many followers especially people in this region. Must be some sort of hypnotic phrasing he uses. I have always found it curious how he and TWC seem to make the rain/snow line the entire NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I have always found it curious how he and TWC seem to make the rain/snow line the entire NC/VA border. Yep then trumpet all over it when we get a huge snow south of that line. SOUTHEAST IMPACTED BY HUGE SNOW WE SWORE WOULDN'T BE THERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 LOL! When did you ever have to read between the lines with JB? Hell, usually you have to put his analysis back between the lines. Ok, this anti-Joe Bastardi campaign has got to stop. It is immature and disrespectful towards a degreed meteorologist. Anyways, we are now beginning to see a downward trend in the NAO and AO. The past 3 runs of the GFS's ensembles has shown the NAO and AO staying positive (X>12/18/11 day). History of 45 days of the NAO and AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 We would be way in the plus for December as well if it wasn't for being on the western fringes of the last event. It hit the foothills/Mtns pretty well. I'm sure you would agree that was a blessing and not a curse for once. This has been the wettest Fall I can remember. From the looks of things theres more to come hopefully. It will only be a matter of time as we head into climo favored JAN/FEB that one of these juiced up systems finally meets some cold air in our neck of the woods. The last few years we have had more snow in December and January than in February, even though February is still the month with the most average snowfall in this part of NC. But it seems the big snows have happened in January since the record one in Jan 2000. Maybe we'll just have to wait longer this winter than we have had the last few winters for snow. But I still think things could get interesting starting next week and around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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