LithiaWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Yet another day of afternoon LR model runs has come and gone and still no pattern change in site. Euro has a nice cutoff low over the southern plains at Day 10, but the SE ridge is entrenched and that low will have no choice but to head NE toward the Great Lakes or be an Apps runner at best. No signs of -NAO or -AO. It surely is getting old fast. I keep scanning the model runs day after day to only find what you just laid out. Lowest temp over the next 12 days on the newest GFS is 38, pair that with some days in the mid 60's and it's looking like a pretty warm comparative to average December around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I agree w/ others, I just don't see any changes showing up on the models. I haven't really posted much so far this December because really there is nothing to post about. I haven't seen anything to get excited about yet unless a big ol' SE ridge does it for ya. Hopefully things will change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 It surely is getting old fast. I keep scanning the model runs day after day to only find what you just laid out. Lowest temp over the next 12 days on the newest GFS is 38, pair that with some days in the mid 60's and it's looking like a pretty warm comparative to average December around here. I agree there is no real pattern flip showing up, but the models have been really bad (more than normal) past day seven. I think it was Robert that stated there were so many waves in the pattern that the models could not time them correctly. (so) Right now I just hope that Christmas is not overly warm (i.e. 75 degrees). Maybe we can get one of the short shots of cold to hit right on Christmas Eve. **it's all we got right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 What is stratospheric warming and why is so important to cold,pattern change, in the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 What is stratospheric warming and why is so important to cold,pattern change, in the US? here is some wiki information for you. I don't know how accurate it is but it should give you a general idea. From what I have learned about it is it can cause blocking to take shape. -NAO. http://en.wikipedia....spheric_warming Classification and description Typically stratospheric meteorologists classify the vortex breakdown into three categories: major minor and final. Sometimes a fourth category, the Canadian warming, is included because of its unique and distinguishing structure and evolution. Major These occur when the westerly winds at 60N and 10hPa (geopotential height) reverse, i.e. become easterly (westwards). A complete disruption of the polar vortex is observed and the vortex will either be split into daughter vortices, or displaced from its normal location over the pole. According to the World Meteorological Organization's Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (Mclnturff, 1978): a stratospheric warming can be said to be major if 10 mb or below the latitudinal mean temperature increases poleward from 60 degree latitude and an associated circulation reversal is observed (that is, the prevailing mean westerly winds poleward of 60 latitude are succeeded by mean easterlies in the same area). [edit] Minor Minor warmings are similar to major warmings however they are less dramatic, the westerly (eastward) winds are slowed, however do not reverse. Therefore a breakdown of the vortex is never observed. Mclnturff states: a stratospheric warming is called minor if a significant temperature increase is observed (that is, at least 25 degrees in a period of week or less) at any stratospheric level in any area of winter time hemisphere. The polar vortex is not broken down and the wind reversal from westerly (eastwards) to easterly (westwards) is less extensive. Final The radiative cycle in the stratosphere means that during winter the mean flow is westerly (eastward) and during summer it is easterly (westward). A final warming occurs on this transition, so that the polar vortex winds change direction for the warming, however do not change back until the following winter. This is because the stratosphere has entered the summer easterly (westward) phase. It is final because another warming cannot occur over the summer, so it is the final warming of the current winter. Canadian Canadian warmings occur in early winter in the stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere, typically from mid November to early December. They have no counter part in the southern hemisphere. I think the pattern we are seeing will only last for so long, it's days a re numbered and the rubber band will snap back. If it snaps back before say mid-late January we could end up with an interesting end to the winter. ie. -NAO/-AO setting up. If it takes too long we could end up with teleconnections in our favor in March or April which would suck if it waits till then to flip. CoastalWx just made a post in the SSW thread in the main forums that gives some hope. The Euro is showing warming in it's ensembles around day 10 at the 10mb level. I think/hope we see a Teleconnection flip in about a month. We shall see but with the grumblings I've been hearing a mid-January time frame for more favorable teleconnections setting up could be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I agree there is no real pattern flip showing up, but the models have been really bad (more than normal) past day seven. I think it was Robert that stated there were so many waves in the pattern that the models could not time them correctly. (so) Right now I just hope that Christmas is not overly warm (i.e. 75 degrees). Maybe we can get one of the short shots of cold to hit right on Christmas Eve. **it's all we got right now.. I think Christmas will be at least 65 for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I think Christmas will be at least 65 for a high. 78º here, is my guess. I'm reading a lot on the other forums on this board about the SSW, but am not seeing anything or anyone giving glimmers until mid-Jan. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The warming isn't predictd to start for 10 days, evne then it could get pushed back some more. Then it takes time for the warming to translate to a block, it takes weeks. 78º here, is my guess. I'm reading a lot on the other forums on this board about the SSW, but am not seeing anything or anyone giving glimmers until mid-Jan. Am I missing something? The warming isn't predicted to start for 10 days, even then it could get pushed back some more or even not happen this season. Then it takes time for the warming to translate to a block, it takes weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Yeah, it wont take much work at all to get on that top 5 list for Charlotte but the top 2 positions are certainly out of reach. I think 1889 was at 53.7 or 54. Crazy. These departures for December 1889 are incredible. Charlotte +10.7 Atlanta +13.2 Knoxville +15.1 Chattanooga +15.2 Nashville +16.4 Memphis +17.2 Charlotte's Monthly Temperature December 1889 54.7 January 1890 50.8 February 1890 52.8 March 1890 49.6 Amazingly, the warmth continued until the first of March 1890 when winter finally arrived. Charleston, SC reported heavy snow on March 2 and Columbia, SC, according to the AMS Journal, received 7" of snow that month. Charlotte's coldest day that winter was on March 16 with a high of 36º and a low of 19º. The March freeze devastated crops and vegetation throughout the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 WARNING: Fantasy land, for entertainment purposes only (since the board is bored)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'm gone for a few days and this is what has been going on with the forum? Then again with the expected behavior of the weather over the next few days I can't blame anyone (let alone the lack of fantasy fun until the 0z GFS ran). I wouldn't mind seeing a few days of 60s as this would keep me from having to wear a jacket just to stay comfortable but of course I would not like seeing it as a common high temperature range. The further we go into this month and what may eventually occur during January, the more I begin to think that the winter of 1967-1968 was a good choice to use as one of the analogs and if so would spell for much colder conditions during the latter part of the season (hopefully at least). Similar to what Jon posted, there is also another fantasy fun period to look at (26th-27th) from the 0z GFS. Just after Christmas of all times too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 This will probably change next run of ECMWF but it shows an amplifying pattern around day 10 with possible strong ridging western NA possibly reaching the ridging in Scandinavia. If that happened, our continent would turn pretty cold and stormy, a fun pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 6z GFS pulls back the reigns a little bit but keeps in colder near the end of Dec. The 12z suite should be interesting to say the least. It was nice to see some fantasy storms popping up in the LR. Maybe we can keep this going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Let's not go crazy like last December. That storm did come together, in a spectacular way, but it was a cardiac roller coaster ride leading up to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 With the post by Jon,Gastonwxman,FoothillsNC ,the models must be getting an idea that something is about to change with our weather pattern.Correct me if i'm wrong but this is the the most we've seen lately of any change the best I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 With the post by Jon,Gastonwxman,FoothillsNC ,the models must be getting an idea that something is about to change with our weather pattern.Correct me if i'm wrong but this is the the most we've seen lately of any change the best I can remember. No it's flirted with change often just to disappear. It's also been constant with having the NAO going negative at the end of the GFS run simply for it not to verify. We are getting into late December though so climo factors to help at least a little. If it's still showing the same thing by the end of the week then we can start breathing a little easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Still no let up in the AO spike at the end of the OP GFS run. That's been a feature for 8+ runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 There are some signs changes may happen as we head into early Jan...The Day 10 Op Euro +PNA is not really one other than the fact it keeps December from torching....ensembles quickly flatten out the flow in Day 11-15... Just remember that if things start to change that even if a -NAO or blocking pattern shows up you are still another week or two away from sustained cold/ real snow potential. So that puts us at mid January most likely if something is going to happen (and as with Don Sutherland's AO+ thread, this is no guarantee that a very favorable pattern replaces this one). Good news here as I said before, though, this is the most climatologically favored time. So until then, wait and watch and enjoy the near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Let's not go crazy like last December. That storm did come together, in a spectacular way, but it was a cardiac roller coaster ride leading up to the event. Right now I would take whatever I could get. Besides the storm was a classic but the chase, while a roller coaster ride, was as much fun for me as the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Saw Van Denton,FOX8 News ,last night.Unlike some that just tell the forecast Van is very good at explaining patterns and what may or may not happen. He was talking about the cold building in Canada.He said the loger the cold stays up there the stronger it becomes and he fels it will eventually come down .He's said he looked on the models and they did't shoe the cold but that they wene out 16 days .He seams to feel that Jan is when the cold will arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Still no let up in the AO spike at the end of the OP GFS run. That's been a feature for 8+ runs. I think this was/is some type of error by the model, feedback, loss of res after truncation, who knows. Below is the AO comparison from the 0z suite, op GFS takes it t almost 350m anomalies around the 25th, which is backing off a but from some of the extreme + we saw from it over prior runs. The GFS ens mean would imply a sustained period on the neg side, peaking around the 18th, and slowly rising thereafter. ECMWF and its ens mean indicate the AO would trend around neutral for the next 10 days or so, with no real uptick as the 0z op GFS indicated around the 22nd-23rd. 6z AO forecast from the global, op is a polar opposite compared to the run prior, ens mean similar to the 0z mean. Case in point, anyone who thinks the AO is going to spike into +4-5 sd range over the next 14 days is likely mistaken. This may signal a change towards a slightly cooler/more amplified pattern east of the MS compared to what we are seeing/maybe expecting. This is supported by a PV (maybe the coldest air in the NH), moving into an area around the Hudson Straight around d10, which the big 3 ens means showed as of 0z, and a rising PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 You can always count on the 300+ hour GFS to throw you a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12z at 264 is a little interesting for Christmas Eve.....we have a frontal passage but again cold chasing moisture. However after that it looks to get pretty cold. We'll see if it's a 00z redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 This will probably change next run of ECMWF but it shows an amplifying pattern around day 10 with possible strong ridging western NA possibly reaching the ridging in Scandinavia. If that happened, our continent would turn pretty cold and stormy, a fun pattern. Watching and waiting patiently There are some signs changes may happen as we head into early Jan...The Day 10 Op Euro +PNA is not really one other than the fact it keeps December from torching....ensembles quickly flatten out the flow in Day 11-15... Just remember that if things start to change that even if a -NAO or blocking pattern shows up you are still another week or two away from sustained cold/ real snow potential. So that puts us at mid January most likely if something is going to happen (and as with Don Sutherland's AO+ thread, this is no guarantee that a very favorable pattern replaces this one). Good news here as I said before, though, this is the most climatologically favored time. So until then, wait and watch andenjoy the near misses. See the above post My patience will pay off....one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 At least we are beginning to see signs somewhat of a pattern "change". Last November we kept seeing signs in the LR that one was coming but it took about a month or so to show up. So now that we are seeing some signs on and off again is good in my opinion. Hopefully the signs will begin to show up in the middle and near tearm instead of only in the LR. Either way we need something positive to track around here because the mood is in this thread is abismal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 love the end of the run on the 12z GFS, -NAO, +PNA.... huge trough over the eastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 So far this year I've been pretty quiet and just reading a lot of what you guys have to say... great stuff as always. Hopefully by posting for the first time of the winter season the mojo will change around here. Now I remember why I was so happy with last year, we didn't have to wait around long for winter... that doesn't seem to be the case this year. When winter finally does show up round these parts, hopefully it'll stay for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 love the end of the run on the 12z GFS, -NAO, +PNA.... huge trough over the eastern US Where did you get -NAO and +PNA from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Many of the mets in the Mid-atlantic forum are a lot more positive about a pattern change. Looks like Christmas on-ward is their thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Where did you get -NAO and +PNA from? I assumed he was talking about the 0z GFS...possibly a typo? Ens are basically opposite, so grain of salt one shall taketh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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