SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[burgertime]

Thanks Carver's Gap.

I would like to see the 18z GFS verify. Unfortunately, I suspect that the 18z GFS ensembles probably have a better idea for the 11-15-day (12/19-23) timeframe.

Thanks for posting, I always read your post and try to pretend I understand half of it but I'm still learning. Either way I get some of it and you have a good way of explaining your thoughts. Always an honor when you stop by.

[DaculaWeather]

Thanks for posting, I always read your post and try to pretend I understand half of it but I'm still learning. Either way I get some of it and you have a good way of explaining your thoughts. Always an honor when you stop by.

Yea, that's me! I really do enjoy how thorough your post are, even if the reality is a slap in the face.

And yes, stop by more often! I know it kind of redundant when you have to go to a subforum to explain your thoughts but it's a treat for us!

Thanks for everything!

[Amos83]

^{Interesting video posted over on the main forum last night about a possible pattern change coming up. I don't know enough to really comment on the validity of what he says but it was presented in a way that makes sense and gives us winter lovin' folks some hope!}

^{http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30805-winter-pattern-change-video/page__gopid__1180747#entry1180747}

[easternsnowman]

Huh?? All the more reason to respect what he says. I have problems with believing people's forecasts when they don't have statistics to back them up. I don't know whether he will be right or not (no one does until winter's come and gone and we can look back on it!), but your problem with him is that he uses statistics!! Really??!! So, for the record, in future cases, we should look for people who back up their forecasts with gut feelings, moon phases, and astrological signs? I don't understand this at all...

Statistics are not the only thing used in weather-forecasting, I'm sure, but you can't fault someone for having done research on past events and trying to create corollaries. I don't like his conclusions anymore than any other snow-lover, but I have to respect the argument.

Okay, I'm done...

Yes but analogs and statistics did not explain the results of the last 2 winters.

[EmersonGA]

Good change to the avatar Emerson! Very appropriate! Hope you are doing well. At least we have cashed in on the rainfall lately.

Thanks Dixie. I figured the avatar matches the mood around here lately. In terms of rainfall we have had a pattern change. I've done great the past month or so after a dry stretch. You and I are close enough to the Chattanooga rain magnet to do okay.

[burgertime]

^{Interesting video posted over on the main forum last night about a possible pattern change coming up. I don't know enough to really comment on the validity of what he says but it was presented in a way that makes sense and gives us winter lovin' folks some hope!}

^{http://www.americanw...47#entry1180747}

Sounds a lot like what Robert has been honking about the past few weeks.

[Amos83]

Sounds a lot like what Robert has been honking about the past few weeks.

I thought the exact same thing. Either way it is nice to see another knowledgeable Met out there giving some hope to winter. Looks like there is basically two camps of thoughts shaping up, 1- winter will big one giant screw, 2- we are in a step down into winter instead of having a major and sudden pattern swing.

Should be interesting to see which camp is correct

[DaculaWeather]

Great video though.

[Brick Tamland]

So, is this false hope?

[nrgjeff]

Yes but analogs and statistics did not explain the results of the last 2 winters.

Seems like the -AO/NAO worked out pretty well last 2 winters. This year, however, we have regime change.

[easternsnowman]

Seems like the -AO/NAO worked out pretty well last 2 winters. This year, however, we have regime change.

They did not work out for the entire winter as I doubt they will this winter.

[DixieBlizzard]

They did not work out for the entire winter as I doubt they will this winter.

Did I miss something? I don't think anyone could nail last winter's pattern with any specificity. It doesn't make anyone's approach wrong and more often than not, guys like DS do a great job identifying trends. If you want more than that, how do you formulate your approach aside from wishful thinking, which I am not accusing you of. What's your specific thoughts since you are underwhelmed by others approach?

[pcbjr]

Saw this link in the New England thread, and am passing it along for due consideration:

http://www.nynjpawea...ern-on-the-way/

Now, it's not necessarily showing anything "good" down our way, but if this were to transpire, maybe it would give us a shot at something in the SE.

[NC_hailstorm]

^{Interesting video posted over on the main forum last night about a possible pattern change coming up. I don't know enough to really comment on the validity of what he says but it was presented in a way that makes sense and gives us winter lovin' folks some hope!}

^{http://www.americanw...47#entry1180747}

Good video.

Getting the -QBO and a SSW(sudden stratospheric warming) will help split up or displace the huge polar vortex,the temps up there are running at almost record lows.That should help with getting some sort of blocking.In my opinion that's the reason the AO/NAO has been raging with nothing to slow that vortex down.Just looking at the 30hPa there is finally an uptick in some warming up there so a change could be happening but not sure yet.

The MJO has been forecasted too weak in my opinion,it was supposed to be in the COD(circle of death)days ago but it still looks healthy in phase 5.Getting it around in 7,8,and 1 would help.

All of this just my opinion.

[BullCityWx]

Saw this link in the New England thread, and am passing it along for due consideration:

http://www.nynjpawea...ern-on-the-way/

Now, it's not necessarily showing anything "good" down our way, but if this were to transpire, maybe it would give us a shot at something in the SE.

Don't take this as me jumping on you because I assure you that is not my intention.

However, that guy is a clown. I take him almost as seriously as I take analog96.

[pcbjr]

Don't take this as me jumping on you because I assure you that is not my intention.

However, that guy is a clown. I take him almost as seriously as I take analog96.

I don't take it in any negative way. But since this is a "pattern change" forum, and there is some divergence of opinion here and elsewhere about where we are headed (e.g., the little feud going on with DT and LC the past hour), I posted the link as an informational source just to add to our discussion in a non-flippant and hopefully meaningful and/or technical way.

If there is disagreement with what that fellow says, that's fine, and let's explore it; that's how we learn!

Again, I know you weren't being negative; I just want to clarify why I posted the link.

[tnweathernut]

okie333, on 23 November 2011 - 01:03 PM, said: (See Below in Bold.......this is from HM in the "and we begin, part duex...." thread.) I like the way he thinks!

35-55N snowcover anomaly is off the charts

Anyone jumping off the cold forecasts for mid-winter will regret it. Okay okay...I'm being a dbag. But the build up of snow cover and ozone is enough evidence to me, along with the active MJO, to suggest the AO is heading into the tank at some point--solar notwithstanding.

[LithiaWx]

current readings, stil above but not quite as impressive.

[tnweathernut]

What's amazing to me is that there really do seem to be two completely different camps setting up (warm vs. cold) Not many on the fence and BOTH sides just as sure about their projections. The weather will do what the weather wants to do, but even if we don't have anything to track, we might have a good (and hopefully friendly) battle unfolding that we can all watch together.

[Brick Tamland]

So, is this false hope?

I guess it is.

[oconeexman]

I guess it is.

As with most all long range model forecasts..10-15 days. How many times in the past 3 years have we seen this one day then it dissappears the next? Take it with a grain even if it was ultra negative NAO at this time I wouldnt expect to happen 100%. Look for the consensus of modelling in the medium range then get excited.

I'm in Robert's camp and believe we are in for a good one this winter and am sticking with it.

Around here to see snow before or on Christmas has always been a phenomenon (outside the NC mtns) so i'm baffled at why so many people are cliff diving already. Definitely kills the SE board mojo IMO.

If we get through January without seeing a decent snow then i'll be worried a little. Until then its business as usual as far as winter in the south goes.

[Mr Bob]

As with most all long range model forecasts..10-15 days. How many times in the past 3 years have we seen this one day then it dissappears the next? Take it with a grain even if it was ultra negative NAO at this time I wouldnt expect to happen 100%. Look for the consensus of modelling in the medium range then get excited.

I'm in Robert's camp and believe we are in for a good one this winter and am sticking with it.

Around here to see snow before or on Christmas has always been a phenomenon (outside the NC mtns) so i'm baffled at why so many people are cliff diving already. Definitely kills the SE board mojo IMO.

If we get through January without seeing a decent snow then i'll be worried a little. Until then its business as usual as far as winter in the south goes.

Why is forecasting a warmer than normal winter diving off a cliff? (and I am in your camp...football wise )

[N.C.IceAge]

As with most all long range model forecasts..10-15 days. How many times in the past 3 years have we seen this one day then it dissappears the next? Take it with a grain even if it was ultra negative NAO at this time I wouldnt expect to happen 100%. Look for the consensus of modelling in the medium range then get excited.

I'm in Robert's camp and believe we are in for a good one this winter and am sticking with it.

Around here to see snow before or on Christmas has always been a phenomenon (outside the NC mtns) so i'm baffled at why so many people are cliff diving already. Definitely kills the SE board mojo IMO.

If we get through January without seeing a decent snow then i'll be worried a little. Until then its business as usual as far as winter in the south goes.

Same here, I believe we'll still get winter time weather this 2011-12 season, I've lived in N.C. all my life and getting snow in December is low, every so often we might get a big storm. Jan. thru March is our best time for bigtime snowstorm's in N.C., the biggest snow I ever saw was March 1-2, 1980, I lived down in the eastern part of N.C. then, I had 20 inches my back yard by the time it was over, the weather men called it the Eastern N.C. Blizzard. So all you SNOW LOVERS hang on. lol

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Same here, I believe we'll still get winter time weather this 2011-12 season, I've lived in N.C. all my life and getting snow in December is low, every so often we might get a big storm. Jan. thru March is our best time for bigtime snowstorm's in N.C., the biggest snow I ever saw was March 1-2, 1980, I lived down in the eastern part of N.C. then, I had 20 inches my back yard by the time it was over, the weather men called it the Eastern N.C. Blizzard. So all you SNOW LOVERS hang on. lol

I remember that storm very well. I have never seen temps that cold outside the mountains with snow before or since. Temp bottomed out at 9 degrees during the height of that storm and we picked up 10 inches of snow here. What was more interesting was the type of snowflakes.......mostly needles and columns with a few dendrites. It warmed up rather quickly the following day.....after a low of 6 degrees it hit 45 for a high. Don't think I will ever see anything like that again here. However, with all these cut-off lows we are seeing, this might still prove to be an interesting winter.

I agree with Foothills. If the pattern unfolds the way he thinks, it will not be boring at all.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Same here, I believe we'll still get winter time weather this 2011-12 season, I've lived in N.C. all my life and getting snow in December is low, every so often we might get a big storm. Jan. thru March is our best time for bigtime snowstorm's in N.C., the biggest snow I ever saw was March 1-2, 1980, I lived down in the eastern part of N.C. then, I had 20 inches my back yard by the time it was over, the weather men called it the Eastern N.C. Blizzard. So all you SNOW LOVERS hang on. lol

But with the sun angle much higher in the sky, the days much longer, and the ground warmer, isn't it harder to get snow to stick in March vs December ?

[Jon]

But with the sun angle much higher in the sky, the days much longer, and the ground warmer, isn't it harder to get snow to stick in March vs December ?

Not really. Even if it did, we're talking a blizzard here...I'd prefer an early march storm following Jan & Feb than a early Dec storm after we came out of an average Oct & Nov. This year I'd definitely prefer one closer on March first than anytime this month tbh.

[Met1985]

You have to remember usually in march the ground can still be very cold if not frozen after Jan and Feb weather. I have seen some of our biggest snows in March. At the begging we have had as much as 8 to 10 inches. Can't forget 1993 super storm! Then i have seen two feet at the end of March also. Hope this helps.

[pcbjr]

You have to remember usually in march the ground can still be very cold if not frozen after Jan and Feb weather. I have seen some of our biggest snows in March. At the begging we have had as much as 8 to 10 inches. Can't forget 1993 super storm! Then i have seen two feet at the end of March also. Hope this helps.

So, are we now waiting until March for winter to arrive?

[Met1985]

So, are we now waiting until March for winter to arrive?

Oh no i was just talking about the sun angle and the temp of the ground for the best snow in Dec or March.

[ajaronw10]

You have to remember usually in march the ground can still be very cold if not frozen after Jan and Feb weather. I have seen some of our biggest snows in March. At the begging we have had as much as 8 to 10 inches. Can't forget 1993 super storm! Then i have seen two feet at the end of March also. Hope this helps.

I remember that March 1993 storm! Heard the word blizzard and white out associated with that storm!.. We were out of school for an entire week because of that snow! I can't remember exactly how much snow we got here but I know it was something around 12 inches, give or take a little bit.. I'd love to get another snow storm like that one!