SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[pcbjr]

Seems like a battle of the GFS vs the Euro. While the Euro is still saying warm, the latest GFS (18z) is still screaming Arctic Outbreak on the way by mid month.

If only that 18z GFS (or some model) would latch on to some sustained cold, maybe we'd have a pattern shift and some blocking to start slowly watching for - but not seeing it. Even the 18z GFS cold is out by the 22nd and everything looks like a redux of the current pattern at about that time - pretty well flat.

[magpiemaniac]

If only that 18z GFS (or some model) would latch on to some sustained cold, maybe we'd have a pattern shift and some blocking to start slowly watching for - but not seeing it. Even the 18z GFS cold is out by the 22nd and everything looks like a redux of the current pattern at about that time - pretty well flat.

Cold chasing moisture chasing cold chasing moisture chasing cold ad nauseum.

12/13 to 12/17 GFS

12/18 to 12/22 GFS

[franklin NCwx]

No one has created a strawman. Wider put himself out there since he disagreed with foothills winter outlook. And there has been a pattern change, a pattern change consists of more than the ao/nao going negative. We have a plus pna, and the vortex has moved out of alaska and into central Canada now. Look at the ridge poking up north of Alaska now. Is this not a change from two weeks ago?

Wildre never has used the word torch in this thread. People have created a strawman in that regard. Fact is Wildre and others have been dead on about the lack of a pattern change. Snow in the mountains of NC does not equate to a pattern change. You can get snow in the mountains of NC and TN even in a bad pattern for the rest of the SE. If people think a +NAO and a -PNA along with a +AO is any different from when this thread was created they need to look again. How is the pattern different from when the thread was created? Looks like more of the same to me.

[toxictwister00]

If only that 18z GFS (or some model) would latch on to some sustained cold, maybe we'd have a pattern shift and some blocking to start slowly watching for - but not seeing it. Even the 18z GFS cold is out by the 22nd and everything looks like a redux of the current pattern at about that time - pretty well flat.

I wasn't trying to imply it was showing anything long term though, only that it was showing a brief arctic outbreak starting around the 17th. There's no persistent blocking, but I would like to take it over the Euro because even if the cold snaps are transient, it seems to be remaining active as far as storms, I think there's a decent chance something may sneak in and surprise us. I'm just trying to make the best out of a no so great situation and remain cautiously optimistic.

[FoothillsNC]

No one has created a strawman. Wider put himself out there since he disagreed with foothills winter outlook. And there has been a pattern change, a pattern change consists of more than the ao/nao going negative. We have a plus pna, and the vortex has moved out of alaska and into central Canada now. Look at the ridge poking up north of Alaska now. Is this not a change from two weeks ago?

I think you're right. The pattern did change from a month ago when there was a huge deep west coast trough, and zonal to southwest flow over us. Now we still aren't sustained cold, and the other indices like AO and NAO are still the same, but atleast one main longwave in the flow changed, its just that its' still not a cold flow for us (or many). I think technically its a change in pattern. Not all changes in actual patterns will give any and every spot geographically a change in temps. I think some folks are just read for hard core winter cold to settle in, like last year (and the year before). That's not happening, because its way to active, and probably won't happen yet. I wouldn't trust the models showing it either until they're are steadfast, persistence is the best choice until we actually do get a few more fundamental changes. But it still is a good pattern for a quick change up here and there, and if you look at any given 12z run of the ECM or GFS and stare at a few images of the 144 and 192 and 240 hour panels and see a major ridge over the Southeast, stick around a while and it will change. The models aren't doing too well (again its way too active and the s/w are much stronger than usual--so cut them some slack). The GFS has been a little better though at seeing something like a cutoff in an otherwise benign flow.

As for getting snow on a widespread basis, this won't do it yet, but as we continue stepping into the colder weeks of winter, if and thats a major IF, the cutoffs and very strong shortwaves still exist, and we keep this basic type of flow going, obviously its only a matter of time before many more folks in GA and the Carolinas get into the proper quadrant for a hit of snow. Followed bya warm up probably, rinse, repeat. Patience is needed. Look at many of the past winters when we had a cold dry flow and waited 1 to 2 weeks between systems, only to warm up and rain, missing out on snow, except maybe for the one lucky time when timing worked out. Thats normally how it snows in the South....waiting on good timing, even in a cold flow. Well what we have now is actually an increase in chances for snow. Simple math, we have a LOT more systems moving through the south and Tenn Valley, and that's probably not going to abruptly end any time soon. Eventually, many more folks will get into atleast some snow, and the odds are , that one of these systems will be a really big snow dumper. The odds are higher this year that some folks will have triple annual snowfall compared to normal (outside of Apps) than in most years I think, thanks to the shear number of systems going on and how strong they are. If you look at indicies only this year and MJO, etc...you may be fooled.And if you look at a ten day model, get fooled again...they're not handling things well at all, so dont' think its "over" or a "given", rather go with the pattern. It's an odd year, one that I've never quite observed. But again last year we were saying about the same thing, only it was with a super neg. NAO and strat. warming event, etc. And I can't imagine this place if we had a strong neg NAO with all the action in this flow. It would be something.

[pcbjr]

I wasn't trying to imply it was showing anything long term though, only that it was showing a brief arctic outbreak starting around the 17th. There's no persistent blocking, but I would like to take it over the Euro because even if the cold snaps are transient, it seems to be remaining active as far as storms, I think there's a decent chance something may sneak in and surprise us. I'm just trying to make the best out of a no so great situation and remain cautiously optimistic.

Did not mean to take issue with you and if it came across that way, my sincere apologies!

The point was, if I may in my limited way try again with a little more substance: the seeming transient rinse and repeat quick cool/cold/warm/cool/warm/cool/warm/cold/warm ... over the course of a whole southeast (or east CONUS) winter, as some folks seem to be now prognosticating, seems somewhat unusual - but granted it can and has happened. It just seems that in the last few years we've entered a different era from the '90's and early to mid 2000's, where we now seem to get a pattern established, be it warm or cold, and that's how she sails for the season (rather than up/down/up). So, when the GFS (or any serious model) looks up/down/up and then repeat-and-rinse zonal more or less into 12/22, I'm asking - should someone see anything "a'changin'" I'd sure as heck would like to know what and why so we can follow that and learn!

[FoothillsNC]

Did not mean to take issue with you and if it came across that way, my sincere apologies!

The point was, if I may in my limited way try again with a little more substance: the seeming transient rinse and repeat quick cool/cold/warm/cool/warm/cool/warm/cold/warm ... over the course of a whole southeast (or east CONUS) winter, as some folks seem to be now prognosticating, seems somewhat unusual - but granted it can and has happened. It just seems that in the last few years we've entered a different era from the '90's and early to mid 2000's, where we now seem to get a pattern established, be it warm or cold, and that's how she sails for the season (rather than up/down/up). So, when the GFS (or any serious model) looks up/down/up and then repeat-and-rinse zonal more or less into 12/22, I'm asking - should someone see anything "a'changin'" I'd sure as heck would like to know what and why so we can follow that and learn!

It just seems like we keep repeating the basic same pattern, but each time a little colder, since we're entering Winter. There's still no end in sight but I think eventually one basic flow pattern will more or less rule (but then again maybe not). We keep having long wave troughs that break in two pieces, the southern part of which is being responsible for big precip events from the Apps, west (and even here its very wet...can't get more than 5 or 7 days dry). I'd mix some climatology in here and say that westerlies come down as normal, colder air gets more and more involved and we eventually have a strong upper low moving west to east, that is indeed a pretty good winter storm. If the pattern doesn't change soon, we'll encounter that by the end of the month in the Southeast, otherwise more like in January. For now though it appears Tenn Valley is the spot for some periods of winter excitement.

[LithiaWx]

No one has created a strawman. Wider put himself out there since he disagreed with foothills winter outlook. And there has been a pattern change, a pattern change consists of more than the ao/nao going negative. We have a plus pna, and the vortex has moved out of alaska and into central Canada now. Look at the ridge poking up north of Alaska now. Is this not a change from two weeks ago?

We agree to disagree on the matter. Sure some things are slightly different but it has had virtually no impact on the weather pattern the southeast has seen over the past month. The major players are still not in our favor and until they switch things up a bit you really can't expect vast changes in our weather. It's like a broken record with the weather the past month. It's really has become predictable. Cool, then it warms up before a rainfall then cool for a day or two then warm again, rinse and repeat. How is that a pattern change? Whatever has changed it has meant very little to the southeast in terms of our weather. I'll buy we have seen a pattern change when the southeast gets out of this monotonous rut we have been in.

[SN_Lover]

Wildre never has used the word torch in this thread. People have created a strawman in that regard. Fact is Wildre and others have been dead on about the lack of a pattern change. Snow in the mountains of NC does not equate to a pattern change. You can get snow in the mountains of NC and TN even in a bad pattern for the rest of the SE. If people think a +NAO and a -PNA along with a +AO is any different from when this thread was created they need to look again. How is the pattern different from when the thread was created? Looks like more of the same to me.

He may have never said the word "torch", although it was inferred. If you go back my conversations between me and him, it was obvious that he was arrogant in his ways. He saw what he wanted and made others seem inferior to him, when presented with facts.

He prides himself on creating maximum disruption on forums:

Anyways, ensembles for the 18Z GFS have the NAO around 1. The 18Z also brings the AO between 0 and 1, better than 4 or 5(where we were/are).

[FoothillsNC]

I'll buy we have seen a pattern change when the southeast gets out of this monotonous rut we have been in.

I don't see how you can say it's monotonous. There is something every week that keeps us on our toes. The only real monotonous time was in Summer during the heat wave and drought in some areas. This Fall has been exciting (maybe I'm a weenie). Tons of stuff to watch in our region. Tornado outbreaks (2) and now 2 possible Deep South snows. I know Atlanta has yet to feel some major rains, but eventually you'll hit the rains (and snow). It's just how weather works. For years it wouldn't rain here in Summer, and I was very negative even though tried not to be. Now it rains a lot. Everybody is commenting on how wet it's been, finally. I know central Ga to central SC and part of NC is still missing the heart of the events, because of how the tracks play out so far. It won't always be this way, and we shouldn't really be talking snow anywhere in the South in November and December, unless maybe the mountains, yet here we are. Its' just a matter of time before one of these cutoffs cruise through central GA and the coast of the Carolinas, with cold and snow associated with it. True it may warm up and melt the next day (fine by me) but that just might be the recipe this season. It's a heck of a lot funner than a cold, dry flow, or constant regime of above normal temps (like 05 til 08). Already, we're watching the next rain event ( yes it's only December, so it should be rain) coming our way within 7 days. And signs of an active split flow or southern stream. If you're a snow lover, you should like this pattern over a more than likely cold and dry flow. Your chances are upped. IMO.

[Met1985]

I am not a met but we have seen a pattern change. There is a ridge in the west and we are getting shots of cold air and possibilities of some snow even. No it is not last years pattern but every year is different and the models seem not to be getting a good grasp on the mid to long range with the pattern so amped. Last month i was below average on precip and and now with all the rain the past couple of week i am above average and the temps have been running pretty close to normal. Just my two cents I guess no need in bantering who said what and making negative comments. Lets just have fun with the pattern we are in now it may just surprise you!

[NavarreDon]

I don't see how you can say it's monotonous. There is something every week that keeps us on our toes. The only real monotonous time was in Summer during the heat wave and drought in some areas. This Fall has been exciting (maybe I'm a weenie). Tons of stuff to watch in our region. Tornado outbreaks (2) and now 2 possible Deep South snows. I know Atlanta has yet to feel some major rains, but eventually you'll hit the rains (and snow). It's just how weather works. For years it wouldn't rain here in Summer, and I was very negative even though tried not to be. Now it rains a lot. Everybody is commenting on how wet it's been, finally. I know central Ga to central SC and part of NC is still missing the heart of the events, because of how the tracks play out so far. It won't always be this way, and we shouldn't really be talking snow anywhere in the South in November and December, unless maybe the mountains, yet here we are. Its' just a matter of time before one of these cutoffs cruise through central GA and the coast of the Carolinas, with cold and snow associated with it. True it may warm up and melt the next day (fine by me) but that just might be the recipe this season. It's a heck of a lot funner than a cold, dry flow, or constant regime of above normal temps (like 05 til 08). Already, we're watching the next rain event ( yes it's only December, so it should be rain) coming our way within 7 days. And signs of an active split flow or southern stream. If you're a snow lover, you should like this pattern over a more than likely cold and dry flow. Your chances are upped. IMO.

Robert, You have a great way with your words! & I like what you are saying.

[Met1985]

I don't see how you can say it's monotonous. There is something every week that keeps us on our toes. The only real monotonous time was in Summer during the heat wave and drought in some areas. This Fall has been exciting (maybe I'm a weenie). Tons of stuff to watch in our region. Tornado outbreaks (2) and now 2 possible Deep South snows. I know Atlanta has yet to feel some major rains, but eventually you'll hit the rains (and snow). It's just how weather works. For years it wouldn't rain here in Summer, and I was very negative even though tried not to be. Now it rains a lot. Everybody is commenting on how wet it's been, finally. I know central Ga to central SC and part of NC is still missing the heart of the events, because of how the tracks play out so far. It won't always be this way, and we shouldn't really be talking snow anywhere in the South in November and December, unless maybe the mountains, yet here we are. Its' just a matter of time before one of these cutoffs cruise through central GA and the coast of the Carolinas, with cold and snow associated with it. True it may warm up and melt the next day (fine by me) but that just might be the recipe this season. It's a heck of a lot funner than a cold, dry flow, or constant regime of above normal temps (like 05 til 08). Already, we're watching the next rain event ( yes it's only December, so it should be rain) coming our way within 7 days. And signs of an active split flow or southern stream. If you're a snow lover, you should like this pattern over a more than likely cold and dry flow. Your chances are upped. IMO.

Right on the money just what i was alluding to.

[Cold Rain]

I think we should stop arguing about a pattern change because really, everybody is correct, to some degree. The pattern has changed. It's still not favorable for sustained cold and widespread SE Winter storm threats, which is what Widre and others were saying. But it has changed, nonetheless...see Robert's post above.

I don't see anything in any of the modeling that offers any near term hope for the kind of pattern change that most want to see. But should the opportunity to speculate about it arise, we ought to be able to enjoyably do that.

[LithiaWx]

I don't see how you can say it's monotonous. There is something every week that keeps us on our toes. The only real monotonous time was in Summer during the heat wave and drought in some areas. This Fall has been exciting (maybe I'm a weenie). Tons of stuff to watch in our region. Tornado outbreaks (2) and now 2 possible Deep South snows. I know Atlanta has yet to feel some major rains, but eventually you'll hit the rains (and snow). It's just how weather works. For years it wouldn't rain here in Summer, and I was very negative even though tried not to be. Now it rains a lot. Everybody is commenting on how wet it's been, finally. I know central Ga to central SC and part of NC is still missing the heart of the events, because of how the tracks play out so far. It won't always be this way, and we shouldn't really be talking snow anywhere in the South in November and December, unless maybe the mountains, yet here we are. Its' just a matter of time before one of these cutoffs cruise through central GA and the coast of the Carolinas, with cold and snow associated with it. True it may warm up and melt the next day (fine by me) but that just might be the recipe this season. It's a heck of a lot funner than a cold, dry flow, or constant regime of above normal temps (like 05 til 08). Already, we're watching the next rain event ( yes it's only December, so it should be rain) coming our way within 7 days. And signs of an active split flow or southern stream. If you're a snow lover, you should like this pattern over a more than likely cold and dry flow. Your chances are upped. IMO.

I like this post a lot and have a hard time disagreeing. Monotonous probably was not the best choice of words there. It has been an active pattern but like you said perhaps I'm jaded by all the shafts I've been receiving right and left in my neck of the woods. It's really been an extremely boring time of things the past month around here. If perhaps I lived up the road in Chattanooga or in the mountains of NC or in west TN during the last snowstorm I would not be so callous about the weather. That said monotonous pretty much sums up the weather imby. I should not have used monotonous in reference to the entire southeast. Some areas have had a surprise or two but not me and it's getting old fast. I REALLY hope things change for the better, but for the past month and some it's been pretty dull and boring weather wise. It's warm, a storm comes through and underperforms, then it gets cool but not cold then a quick warm up then another underperforming storm system comes through, rinse, repeat. Where is the variety? Sure there is lots of weather but it's the same story over and over again. Perhaps things will break better for those of us who have been getting the bad end of the stick so far. I hope you are correct and I still have faith for January but what quite a few of us have been seeing so far is not going to quench the thirst for winter. The system rolling through today has exploded to my west and it appears that it may live up to the modeled intensity imby. We shall see but it would be the first step in breaking a bad pattern of events the past month around here.

[dsaur]

I think you're right. The pattern did change from a month ago when there was a huge deep west coast trough, and zonal to southwest flow over us. Now we still aren't sustained cold, and the other indices like AO and NAO are still the same, but atleast one main longwave in the flow changed, its just that its' still not a cold flow for us (or many). I think technically its a change in pattern. Not all changes in actual patterns will give any and every spot geographically a change in temps. I think some folks are just read for hard core winter cold to settle in, like last year (and the year before). That's not happening, because its way to active, and probably won't happen yet. I wouldn't trust the models showing it either until they're are steadfast, persistence is the best choice until we actually do get a few more fundamental changes. But it still is a good pattern for a quick change up here and there, and if you look at any given 12z run of the ECM or GFS and stare at a few images of the 144 and 192 and 240 hour panels and see a major ridge over the Southeast, stick around a while and it will change. The models aren't doing too well (again its way too active and the s/w are much stronger than usual--so cut them some slack). The GFS has been a little better though at seeing something like a cutoff in an otherwise benign flow.

As for getting snow on a widespread basis, this won't do it yet, but as we continue stepping into the colder weeks of winter, if and thats a major IF, the cutoffs and very strong shortwaves still exist, and we keep this basic type of flow going, obviously its only a matter of time before many more folks in GA and the Carolinas get into the proper quadrant for a hit of snow. Followed bya warm up probably, rinse, repeat. Patience is needed. Look at many of the past winters when we had a cold dry flow and waited 1 to 2 weeks between systems, only to warm up and rain, missing out on snow, except maybe for the one lucky time when timing worked out. Thats normally how it snows in the South....waiting on good timing, even in a cold flow. Well what we have now is actually an increase in chances for snow. Simple math, we have a LOT more systems moving through the south and Tenn Valley, and that's probably not going to abruptly end any time soon. Eventually, many more folks will get into atleast some snow, and the odds are , that one of these systems will be a really big snow dumper. The odds are higher this year that some folks will have triple annual snowfall compared to normal (outside of Apps) than in most years I think, thanks to the shear number of systems going on and how strong they are. If you look at indicies only this year and MJO, etc...you may be fooled.And if you look at a ten day model, get fooled again...they're not handling things well at all, so dont' think its "over" or a "given", rather go with the pattern. It's an odd year, one that I've never quite observed. But again last year we were saying about the same thing, only it was with a super neg. NAO and strat. warming event, etc. And I can't imagine this place if we had a strong neg NAO with all the action in this flow. It would be something.

And I'm comfortable with that. Having world class blocking and cold, cold temps hasn't given me any more than usual. I've gotten my big snows these past few years from spring ULL's bringing their own cold air. Usual in Ga., for my life anyway, has been very cold and dry, or very wet and warm, or the big rinse and repeat, with cold chasing rain, or rain pushing out cold. At best we get two or three chances at frozen, and one is apt to be 32.4 and heavy rain, which I'd love right now I'm content to wait on timing....those winters of super potential, are kind of scary, and haven't given me what I want which is paralyzing sleet/snow on the ground for a week, with bitter cold and impassable roads I usually don't get that from great potential...it sneaks up on you and catches you unawares. Ten days out it is warm and dry, and looks hopeless, then a week out there's the big storm And it is usually in Jan. and Feb. So, yeah, I see a pattern change..it seems more normal to me this year ....except for the drought part, lol, and the rapid pattern of repeating rain chances that seem to miss me. One of these days it will get cold, and if the rain keeps coming in, it'll hit some cold. I just hope the low is in Fla. when it does.

As an aside, it is actually raining here now...not just drizzle. T

[FoothillsNC]

I like this post a lot and have a hard time disagreeing. Monotonous probably was not the best choice of words there.

believe me I know where you're coming from. Weather just goes in cycles. Remember those times north Ga floods and hardly a drop here? happened several times, not to mention Summer patterns where it skipped here. You could easily see it on radar. Weather goes in patterns. Right now its Tenn Valley time to get the brunt of cutoffs, which through dyamics ends up shafting central and southern Ga right up to ATL region , but an immediate uptick just north of there. So we do keep repeating the basic pattern. But we're getting deeper and deeper into Winter (eventually) and I love how the cutoff's are still showing up, so this can only be good news if you're a precip lover. It could be much worse, and usually is, like 2005 through early 2009 when there wasn't much in the Southeast, in cold or precip.(outside the Autumn floods and tropics). This is one amazingly active pattern, and for a Nina, its even more mind boggling. We should be pretty dry and hum-drum with most precip in the Ohio Valley, and thats about it. I don't claim to know how the winter shakes out overall, we may stay in the warmer sector or storms all winter (but i seriously doubt that), but still its a pretty fun pattern. I can't help but wonder as the models keep overdeveloping the sustained warmth here that when we get a few more weeks into Winter, what fun can show up, with this kind of pattern of activity. It could really turn on a dime. Like I said in the Winter Outlook, we're in a downturn for temps in Winter, thanks to more blocking and Neg. NAO which is clearly visible on the NAO graph, but any one year can be a tick for the warmer, that may be this year, who knows. Or Feb and March could be vastly different than now with extreme blocking and a super active pattern. I sure wouldn't trust any models like Euro weeklies to show that with any predictability though,and I'm not writing off an above normal snow year anywhere in the Southeast.

[Met1985]

believe me I know where you're coming from. Weather just goes in cycles. Remember those times north Ga floods and hardly a drop here? happened several times, not to mention Summer patterns where it skipped here. You could easily see it on radar. Weather goes in patterns. Right now its Tenn Valley time to get the brunt of cutoffs, which through dyamics ends up shafting central and southern Ga right up to ATL region , but an immediate uptick just north of there. So we do keep repeating the basic pattern. But we're getting deeper and deeper into Winter (eventually) and I love how the cutoff's are still showing up, so this can only be good news if you're a precip lover. It could be much worse, and usually is, like 2005 through early 2009 when there wasn't much in the Southeast, in cold or precip.(outside the Autumn floods and tropics). This is one amazingly active pattern, and for a Nina, its even more mind boggling. We should be pretty dry and hum-drum with most precip in the Ohio Valley, and thats about it. I don't claim to know how the winter shakes out overall, we may stay in the warmer sector or storms all winter (but i seriously doubt that), but still its a pretty fun pattern. I can't help but wonder as the models keep overdeveloping the sustained warmth here that when we get a few more weeks into Winter, what fun can show up, with this kind of pattern of activity. It could really turn on a dime. Like I said in the Winter Outlook, we're in a downturn for temps in Winter, thanks to more blocking and Neg. NAO which is clearly visible on the NAO graph, but any one year can be a tick for the warmer, that may be this year, who knows. Or Feb and March could be vastly different than now with extreme blocking and a super active pattern. I sure wouldn't trust any models like Euro weeklies to show that with any predictability though,and I'm not writing off an above normal snow year anywhere in the Southeast.

You think with the way the pattern is currently if we do get a neg NAO we could see some repeat of Two years ago were it seemed like every other week we had a big storm to deal with. I no this pattern is very juicy and with any sustained cold air and one of these lows wow big time storm.

[Carvers Gap]

You know, if I remember correctly, the Euro weeklies did not accurately predict the cold ending in January last year, and it ended abruptly. Sometimes computer models IMO have a tendency to perpetuate a pattern and then it just snaps. At the end of a long cold snap, I'm always wary of the models tending to perpetuate the cold. Then one day, the cold just seems to be gone from the models. Maybe that happens in reverse this year...maybe not. In other words, maybe the Euros miss the switch to cold. On the other hand, I do think there is a chance this is a super +AO. If so, we are in this "pattern" for quite some time, i.e. severe cold staying bottled up to our north. Maybe this year, as Foothills alludes to, that the pattern flips to the other extreme. In football, it's said that you can't coach speed. In the weather, you can't coach -NAO. Dang, that's a bad cliche. Dang.

[griteater]

In football, it's said that you can't coach speed. In the weather, you can't coach -NAO. Dang, that's a bad cliche. Dang.

For some reason, I liked it though

Also, in baseball they say that you can't hide a bad middle infielder. OK, back to the poor pattern talk...

[Spidyr2k]

FoothillsNC....our Weather Guidance Counselor! Rarely post, but always enjoy your observations, Robert. You have a way of making sense of things while keeping my hopes up for productive winter weather possibilities. Thanks!

[Brick Tamland]

Maybe the pattern has changed, but it still doesn't look like a favorable pattern for snow anytime soon. We had one good snow already this time last year, with a lot of potentials showing up for the future. This year we have nothing. If it doesn't happen in December, we better get a blockbuster January, because February the last few years has been terrible in regards to snow around here.

[BullCityWx]

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like it's going to feel like Christmas in Miami this year.

[franklin NCwx]

Lol.. classic brick!

Maybe the pattern has changed, but it still doesn't look like a favorable pattern for snow anytime soon. We had one good snow already this time last year, with a lot of potentials showing up for the future. This year we have nothing. If it doesn't happen in December, we better get a blockbuster January, because February the last few years has been terrible in regards to snow around here.

[Brick Tamland]

Lol.. classic brick!

Just speaking the truth!

[WidreMann]

When people say "pattern change" around here, they don't mean a useless reconfiguration of a vortex in Alaska that has almost no effect on the sensible weather here. They certainly would care if a trough developed over Japan unless that teleconnected to a trough here.

[EmersonGA]

It's almost like it goes negative just to prove it still can but then is like "just kiddin"

[BullCityWx]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30594-ao-winter-analogs-when-december-reaches-35/page__view__findpost__p__1174358

Don pretty much drove a stake through the heart of the rest of this month.

[BIG FROSTY]

http://www.americanw...ost__p__1174358

Don pretty much drove a stake through the heart of the rest of this month.

Yep, I read were Wes (usedtobe) wrote this morning, He hopes we can get a break later in Janurary but that's not a sure thing!! Talk about driving a stake....