SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[calculus1]

Apparently the euro weeklies came out and they are somehow even worse than the pattern we're in. If anyone would like to apologize to Joel, now might be the time.

I've been cool (literally and figuratively) with the pattern we're in right now. Lot's of interesting weather around. I'm loving all the rain I've got recently. It's much above normal for this time of year. Sure I want snow, but many of these systems have not been showing up in the long-range. These past two systems that have brought (will bring) snow to parts of the interior SE have not been shown way out in the long-range. Who knows what else might surprise us in the near future?

By the way, who's Joel and why does he need to be apologized to? (I'm not quite up to date with everyone's real names matched with the proper avatars.)

[FoothillsNC]

I don't follow the Euro weeklies, other than what I read, but are they doing a good job in the Southeast? From what I could tell we should be well above normal in November and December, but so far that's not happening much. Looking at the temps distribution in GSP CLT RDU CAE all fall only slightly above normal, around here it was only +1.5 or so in the temp department for November, which is hardly a big deal at all. Looks like RDU and CAE may be warmer some but still plenty of changeups , like you'd expect, some warm days, some colder than normal days, all of this is normal. What's not normal is the strong upper lows, which the ECMWF keeps on missing in its day 4+ progs. Yet they keep happening, and now we're looking at a second snow event in the Deep South and Apps. Did the weeklies forecast this? We may end up above normal barely in December again, but it doesn't look all that warm yet. I bet the Tenn Valley folks wouldn't mind to hold on to this kind of pattern that keeps producing atleast brief snow events. Obviously it's not going to be a Dec 2010 type of month with sustained cold, but the sustained warmth isn't here either,like the Euro weeklies have implied.

[Srain]

I don't follow the Euro weeklies, other than what I read, but are they doing a good job in the Southeast? From what I could tell we should be well above normal in November and December, but so far that's not happening much. Looking at the temps distribution in GSP CLT RDU CAE all fall only slightly above normal, around here it was only +1.5 or so in the temp department for November, which is hardly a big deal at all. Looks like RDU and CAE may be warmer some but still plenty of changeups , like you'd expect, some warm days, some colder than normal days, all of this is normal. What's not normal is the strong upper lows, which the ECMWF keeps on missing in its day 4+ progs. Yet they keep happening, and now we're looking at a second snow event in the Deep South and Apps. Did the weeklies forecast this? We may end up above normal barely in December again, but it doesn't look all that warm yet. I bet the Tenn Valley folks wouldn't mind to hold on to this kind of pattern that keeps producing atleast brief snow events. Obviously it's not going to be a Dec 2010 type of month with sustained cold, but the sustained warmth isn't here either,like the Euro weeklies have implied.

For what it's worth those Euro weeklies would have had us torched and bone dry for November over here. We actually ended up a degree or two above normal with 4.70 inches of rain at IAH, Robert...

[jmundie]

I am by no means an expert, but something I've thought about a lot (especially since last winter) is that the computer models were all developed during the warm phase of the PDO. There have been updates, but the last cold phase was before the models (esepecially the long term globals) were available.

Would that affect their output on longer term events, or I guess, is it possible the models make assumptions about how the atmosphere works that are based on longer term patterns that are not consistent?

And the second question I have is - why do these storms keep undercutting any ridging that develops over greenland? It looks like as our current system turns up the coast, and as the huge PV drops in to eastern canada, we have ridging setting up over greenland, but as soon as a s/w makes it up to maine, it just cuts through the ridge like a hot knife through butter. Is it the strength of the ridge that causes it to break down? I'm relatively new in my understanding of the teleconnections, but I've been really paying attention this fall, waiting for a -nao, and I don't understand why the high pressure offers no resistance to low pressure moving up the coast.

[Brick Tamland]

Well, at least it's going to be cold around here this weekend and will feel like Christmas. Still, I don't like the looks of this winter so far as far as snow goes.

[DixieBlizzard]

Well, at least it's going to be cold around here this weekend and will feel like Christmas. Still, I don't like the looks of this winter so far as far as snow goes.

C'mon Brick. It's December 6th.

[Brick Tamland]

C'mon Brick. It's December 6th.

I know, but this time last year we already had snow on the ground, and the rest of the winter looked good as far as snow. We had that other snow on Christmas night, and nothing like that looks to be in the future in the longrange. Then we had one other snow in January, and that was it. And last winter looked a lot more promising than this winter.

[griteater]

And the second question I have is - why do these storms keep undercutting any ridging that develops over greenland? It looks like as our current system turns up the coast, and as the huge PV drops in to eastern canada, we have ridging setting up over greenland, but as soon as a s/w makes it up to maine, it just cuts through the ridge like a hot knife through butter. Is it the strength of the ridge that causes it to break down? I'm relatively new in my understanding of the teleconnections, but I've been really paying attention this fall, waiting for a -nao, and I don't understand why the high pressure offers no resistance to low pressure moving up the coast.

Correct, ridging up into the vicinity of Greenland needs to be strong and persistant in order to keep waves from breaking it down.

[GaStorm]

Apparently the euro weeklies came out and they are somehow even worse than the pattern we're in. If anyone would like to apologize to Joel, now might be the time.

The euro weeklies were showing a +NAO with no cold air coming in last December. Not sure I trust it long range.

[LithiaWx]

The euro weeklies were showing a +NAO with no cold air coming in last December. Not sure I trust it long range.

Are you sure you are remembering correctly? When were they showing this? At this point last season the NAO was already negative and cold was getting locked in.

[GaStorm]

Are you sure you are remembering correctly?

Yes. See DT's comments on it.

http://www.wxrisk.com/category/hardcore-weather-analysis/

[LithiaWx]

Yes. See DT's comments on it.

http://www.wxrisk.co...ather-analysis/

You must have read over that too fast. He was saying the Euro weeklies did a good job the past two seasons picking up on the cold pattern. They also picked up on the mid-february pattern change last year when we flipped the snow and cold switch off for lots of us. He is saying the the Euro Weeklies missed the current cold snap in the plains this year.

[GaStorm]

You must have read over that too fast. He was saying the Euro weeklies did a good job the past two seasons picking up on the cold pattern. They also picked up on the mid-february pattern change last year when we flipped the snow and cold switch off for lots of us. He is saying the the Euro Weeklies missed the current cold snap in the plains this year.

You forgot this part:

"As we moved through November more and more of the European weekly models showed no cold air of any kind reaching any portion of the central and eastern CONUS. Week after week – twice a week now– the European weekly showed nothing but a Moderate to deep trough over the West Coast (-PNA) and a strong +NAO. However as I pointed out a couple times already the European weeklies completely messed the upcoming cold shot next week for the Plains the Midwest and the Northeast where was the CFS vs2 did not."

[SnowDeac]

You forgot this part:

"As we moved through November more and more of the European weekly models showed no cold air of any kind reaching any portion of the central and eastern CONUS. Week after week – twice a week now– the European weekly showed nothing but a Moderate to deep trough over the West Coast (-PNA) and a strong +NAO. However as I pointed out a couple times already the European weeklies completely messed the upcoming cold shot next week for the Plains the Midwest and the Northeast where was the CFS vs2 did not."

Haha, I have no idea what to think about the upcoming pattern, but this was pretty solid internet pwnage folks.

[LithiaWx]

You forgot this part:

"As we moved through November more and more of the European weekly models showed no cold air of any kind reaching any portion of the central and eastern CONUS. Week after week – twice a week now– the European weekly showed nothing but a Moderate to deep trough over the West Coast (-PNA) and a strong +NAO. However as I pointed out a couple times already the European weeklies completely messed the upcoming cold shot next week for the Plains the Midwest and the Northeast where was the CFS vs2 did not."

I thought it was pretty clear he segued to this season. I guess we agree to disagree on which season he was talking about.

[GaStorm]

I thought it was pretty clear he segued to this season. I guess we agree to disagree on which season he was talking about.

At first I thought he referred to last year but it is this year so you are correct. Although the point is the weeklies have been off this season with the west coast trough and no cold air east of the rockies.

[LithiaWx]

Haha, I have no idea what to think about the upcoming pattern, but this was pretty solid internet pwnage folks.

[Cold Rain]

I've been cool (literally and figuratively) with the pattern we're in right now. Lot's of interesting weather around. I'm loving all the rain I've got recently. It's much above normal for this time of year. Sure I want snow, but many of these systems have not been showing up in the long-range. These past two systems that have brought (will bring) snow to parts of the interior SE have not been shown way out in the long-range. Who knows what else might surprise us in the near future?

By the way, who's Joel and why does he need to be apologized to? (I'm not quite up to date with everyone's real names matched with the proper avatars.)

Widreman. He said a couple of times, even back from the inception of this thread that there would be/has been no pattern change since the inception of this thread.

[franklin NCwx]

A few inches of snow does not stick around for five days in nc, in a "torch".

Widreman. He said a couple of times, even back from the inception of this thread that there would be/has been no pattern change since the inception of this thread.

[LithiaWx]

A few inches of snow does not stick around for five days in nc, in a "torch".

Wildre never has used the word torch in this thread. People have created a strawman in that regard. Fact is Wildre and others have been dead on about the lack of a pattern change. Snow in the mountains of NC does not equate to a pattern change. You can get snow in the mountains of NC and TN even in a bad pattern for the rest of the SE. If people think a +NAO and a -PNA along with a +AO is any different from when this thread was created they need to look again. How is the pattern different from when the thread was created? Looks like more of the same to me.

[NCSNOW]

Well, at least it's going to be cold around here this weekend and will feel like Christmas. Still, I don't like the looks of this winter so far as far as snow goes.

Look up your annual total snowfall and I'm betting you'll end up achieving it by seasons end. In fact I'm willing to bet most of us in NC in the piedmont and foothill region hit our seasonal average this year. Yes the pattern looks horrible on paper, but for whatever reason this La nina is behaving like the el-nino of 09/10 in that we get events rolling through here every 3-5 days. If that continues we will cash in. Usually La-Nina winters are dry IMO here in NC, but this one is behaving opposite. Not sure if its the position of the cold pool of ssts out in the pacific, or we may be rolling toward neutral conditions quicker after peaking in Oct/Nov. The biggest factor to the El-nino in 09/10 was the position of the warm pool of ssts in the pacific, thus the conus didnt get firehosed with pacific air. It was the perfect setup. I'm trying to go back and look and see if the position or depth of the cold pool in La Nina produces different results.

[packfan98]

Look up your annual total snowfall and I'm betting you'll end up achieving it by seasons end. In fact I'm willing to bet most of us in NC in the piedmont and foothill region hit our seasonal average this year. Yes the pattern looks horrible on paper, but for whatever reason this La nina is behaving like the el-nino of 09/10 in that we get events rolling through here every 3-5 days. If that continues we will cash in. Usually La-Nina winters are dry IMO here in NC, but this one is behaving opposite. Not sure if its the position of the cold pool of ssts out in the pacific, or we may be rolling toward neutral conditions quicker after peaking in Oct/Nov. The biggest factor to the El-nino in 09/10 was the position of the warm pool of ssts in the pacific, thus the conus didnt get firehosed with pacific air. It was the perfect setup. I'm trying to go back and look and see if the position or depth of the cold pool in La Nina produces different results.

I agree with my Randolph County friend that we should cash in if the pattern doesn't change because all it would take is a well timed push of cold air from a high pressure to put the storm track in a sweet spot for the piedmont of NC at least. It would be logical that the cold air has to come at some point and if we are still getting wet systems every 5 days, it puts the probablity of our snow chances relatively high.

[calculus1]

Widreman. He said a couple of times, even back from the inception of this thread that there would be/has been no pattern change since the inception of this thread.

Thanks for the clarification. I understand the reference now.

[burgertime]

Wildre never has used the word torch in this thread. People have created a strawman in that regard. Fact is Wildre and others have been dead on about the lack of a pattern change. Snow in the mountains of NC does not equate to a pattern change. You can get snow in the mountains of NC and TN even in a bad pattern for the rest of the SE. If people think a +NAO and a -PNA along with a +AO is any different from when this thread was created they need to look again. How is the pattern different from when the thread was created? Looks like more of the same to me.

+1

[Brick Tamland]

Look up your annual total snowfall and I'm betting you'll end up achieving it by seasons end. In fact I'm willing to bet most of us in NC in the piedmont and foothill region hit our seasonal average this year. Yes the pattern looks horrible on paper, but for whatever reason this La nina is behaving like the el-nino of 09/10 in that we get events rolling through here every 3-5 days. If that continues we will cash in. Usually La-Nina winters are dry IMO here in NC, but this one is behaving opposite. Not sure if its the position of the cold pool of ssts out in the pacific, or we may be rolling toward neutral conditions quicker after peaking in Oct/Nov. The biggest factor to the El-nino in 09/10 was the position of the warm pool of ssts in the pacific, thus the conus didnt get firehosed with pacific air. It was the perfect setup. I'm trying to go back and look and see if the position or depth of the cold pool in La Nina produces different results.

I just remember last winter and the winter of 09-10 were winters with all this "great potential" as far as snow goes around here, and we only ended up with three good snows at max. This winter does not seem to have that same potential, so I'm not really optomistic on much if a "great potential" only yields three snows in three months.

[Mr Bob]

Look up your annual total snowfall and I'm betting you'll end up achieving it by seasons end. In fact I'm willing to bet most of us in NC in the piedmont and foothill region hit our seasonal average this year. Yes the pattern looks horrible on paper, but for whatever reason this La nina is behaving like the el-nino of 09/10 in that we get events rolling through here every 3-5 days. If that continues we will cash in. Usually La-Nina winters are dry IMO here in NC, but this one is behaving opposite. Not sure if its the position of the cold pool of ssts out in the pacific, or we may be rolling toward neutral conditions quicker after peaking in Oct/Nov. The biggest factor to the El-nino in 09/10 was the position of the warm pool of ssts in the pacific, thus the conus didnt get firehosed with pacific air. It was the perfect setup. I'm trying to go back and look and see if the position or depth of the cold pool in La Nina produces different results.

There is nothing to suggest that overall the precip pattern over the last 90 days is much different than what La Nina climo would suggest. Frankly...the November 09 departures and the November 11 departures are almost complete opposites.

[downeastnc]

The euro weeklies were showing a +NAO with no cold air coming in last December. Not sure I trust it long range.

Maybe but the difference is this year the next few weeks look terrible and really the next month doesnt look good...and its hot right now unlike last Dec.

On this day last year we were talking about a snowstorm possibly a major one for NC by mid Dec as the models were aggressive with the cold and stormy pattern, so while the weeklies may have been wrong last year the actual weather and models were showing cold and stormy....we cant say the same for this winter so far.

[GaStorm]

Maybe but the difference is this year the next few weeks look terrible and really the next month doesnt look good...and its hot right now unlike last Dec.

On this day last year we were talking about a snowstorm possibly a major one for NC by mid Dec as the models were aggressive with the cold and stormy pattern, so while the weeklies may have been wrong last year the actual weather and models were showing cold and stormy....we cant say the same for this winter so far.

The discussion was actually for this year. MariettaWx pointed that out and was right. I read it a bit too fast the first time being that I'm at work. Anyway, I agree last year was obviously an easy pattern to predict once the cold locked in. We don't know when any sustained cold is going to lock in this year unfortunately.

[Mr Bob]

Wildre never has used the word torch in this thread. People have created a strawman in that regard. Fact is Wildre and others have been dead on about the lack of a pattern change. Snow in the mountains of NC does not equate to a pattern change. You can get snow in the mountains of NC and TN even in a bad pattern for the rest of the SE. If people think a +NAO and a -PNA along with a +AO is any different from when this thread was created they need to look again. How is the pattern different from when the thread was created? Looks like more of the same to me.

Nice post...This is probably why the Euro long range is so gung ho on the torch and where the torch idea is coming from...it certainly has not been a torch down here and does not look like one yet (but not nearly as cold as last year)...but it certainly must be considered...

[toxictwister00]

Seems like a battle of the GFS vs the Euro. While the Euro is still saying warm, the latest GFS (18z) is still screaming Arctic Outbreak on the way by mid month.