FoothillsNC Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 This makes a few runs now the GFS has pretty cold coming into the East but its way out there in the day 11-15 time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 5:54 PM, MariettaWx said: Where did you get -NAO and +PNA from? Looks transient but colder nonetheless. Just need some blocking and it's missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12Z Euro a lot different than the GFS, matches pretty well with the 00Z ensembles- no really cold air except the occasional frontal passage like we have already been seeing- the 240 hr Euro has a large negative height anomaly over the Greenland area as did the 00Z ensemble mean. I trust these a lot more than the fantasy GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Allan Hufman's (RaleighWx) latest blog has me a little excited. Next week into Christmas looks interesting. I know the timing has to be right, but at least it is something to watch for a change. Could we have another white Christmas here? http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/rain-by-friday-wintry-chances-christmas-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 7:13 PM, Brick Tamland said: Allan Hufman's (RaleighWx) latest blog has me a little excited. Next week into Christmas looks interesting. I know the timing has to be right, but at least it is something to watch for a change. Could we have another white Christmas here? http://www.examiner....-christmas-week If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 7:20 PM, MariettaWx said: If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a Merry Christmas. You gotta believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 7:13 PM, Brick Tamland said: Allan Hufman's (RaleighWx) latest blog has me a little excited. Next week into Christmas looks interesting. I know the timing has to be right, but at least it is something to watch for a change. Could we have another white Christmas here? http://www.examiner....-christmas-week Technically, last year was not a white christmas...considering snow started falling at approx. 6:40pm in Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 i've got a qustion that may or not have ben answered .Have there been warmer than normal Nov and Dec tempuratures,in the southeast, that flipped to cold for Jan during a weak LaNina year that was like this year with the +NAO/AO and -PNA?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Another question for met/ expert to chime in on. With all the mega cold building up at the polls, seems to me the main ingreedent to deliver it down into the US would be the PNA going positive. The NAO going neg acts as a funneling mechanisim as well, but it's main benefit to us is that it locks the cold in for a prolonged period by way of blocking, so the cold doesn't just come in and out in 72 hours. Therefore since we know the extreme cold source is their, The ridge building out in the pacific/west coast (+PNA) is really all we need to start the process of bleeding/dislodging this air southbound. Of course if the NAO is positive, then we need a really robust + pna to get the artic air driven more towards our area (SE) I would think. Instead of trying to pull 2 teeth (-NAO/+PNA) maybe we can get by with just getting one pulled(+pna), therefore providing an oppurtunity to get the cold needed for some fun-n-games. IMO at the moment it appears easier to get a +PNA as oppossed to waiting on some strato warming to translate into a -AO the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 8:08 PM, NCSNOW said: Another question for met/ expert to chime in on. With all the mega cold building up at the polls, seems to me the main ingreedent to deliver it down into the US would be the PNA going positive. The NAO going neg acts as a funneling mechanisim as well, but it's main benefit to us is that it locks the cold in for a prolonged period by way of blocking, so the cold doesn't just come in and out in 72 hours. Therefore since we know the extreme cold source is their, The ridge building out in the pacific/west coast (+PNA) is really all we need to start the process of bleeding/dislodging this air southbound. Of course if the NAO is positive, then we need a really robust + pna to get the artic air driven more towards our area (SE) I would think. Instead of trying to pull 2 teeth (-NAO/+PNA) maybe we can get by with just getting one pulled(+pna), therefore providing an oppurtunity to get the cold needed for some fun-n-games. IMO at the moment it appears easier to get a +PNA as oppossed to waiting on some strato warming to translate into a -AO the -NAO. If you think back to last winter, we saw a -AO/-NAO/-PNA pattern for the entire month of December. The -AO/-NAO pattern was the mechanism for delivering and locking in the cold air, overwelming the negative effects of the -PNA. As we moved into January, the +PNA kicked in at times to aid the cold air delivery as the AO/NAO flipped back and forth - and +. So, both the -NAO and +PNA are patterns that can deliver cold air. If relying solely on a +PNA pattern, you are likely going to have to rely on proper timing of the cold air with storm systems to get a widespread winter storm...whereas a sustained -NAO pattern can sustain the cold air longer and widen the timing window for potential winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 7:39 PM, Jon said: Technically, last year was not a white christmas...considering snow started falling at approx. 6:40pm in Raleigh. Really? It snowed on Christmas. It's a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 8:59 PM, griteater said: If you think back to last winter, we saw a -AO/-NAO/-PNA pattern for the entire month of December. The -AO/-NAO pattern was the mechanism for delivering and locking in the cold air, overwelming the negative effects of the -PNA. As we moved into January, the +PNA kicked in at times to aid the cold air delivery as the AO/NAO flipped back and forth - and +. So, both the -NAO and +PNA are patterns that can deliver cold air. If relying solely on a +PNA pattern, you are likely going to have to rely on proper timing of the cold air with storm systems to get a widespread winter storm...whereas a sustained -NAO pattern can sustain the cold air longer and widen the timing window for potential winter storms. No objections to the last couple of posts on this, the only thing I would add is that without a negative NAO it will be harder to keep the systems suppressed as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 9:10 PM, Brick Tamland said: Really? It snowed on Christmas. It's a white Christmas. Yeah, really. Obviously you think a flake in the evening/night of christmas day counts, I don't. A lot of people consider a white christmas 1" of accumulating snow or more on christmas day. That didn't happen for our area. A white christmas to me is opening presents and looking outside seeing the ground, trees, cars, etc covered in white snow, hence, a white christmas. My area accumulated around 0.5" MAYBE, yours most likely a trace before midnight on 12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Until they get too suppressed. Did You guys got left out of the heavy snow last year? On 12/13/2011 at 9:39 PM, tnweathernut said: No objections to the last couple of posts on this, the only thing I would add is that without a negative NAO it will be harder to keep the systems suppressed as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 9:42 PM, Jon said: Yeah, really. Obviously you think a flake in the evening/night of christmas day counts, I don't. A lot of people consider a white christmas 1" of accumulating snow or more on christmas day. That didn't happen for our area. A white christmas to me is opening presents and looking outside seeing the ground, trees, cars, etc covered in white snow, hence, a white christmas. My area accumulated around 0.5" MAYBE, yours most likely a trace before midnight on 12/26. This pic summed up that storm for me It started snowing around 7 PM in CLT IIRC just light stuff but to me that counted as a white Christmas. I don't care how the NWS labels it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 10:30 PM, burgertime said: This pic summed up that storm for me It started snowing around 7 PM in CLT IIRC just light stuff but to me that counted as a white Christmas. I don't care how the NWS labels it. It started around that time in Chapel Hill, as well. The double giddiness of it being Christmas and anticipating the snow starting was better than it all being over by the morning IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 8:59 PM, griteater said: If you think back to last winter, we saw a -AO/-NAO/-PNA pattern for the entire month of December. The -AO/-NAO pattern was the mechanism for delivering and locking in the cold air, overwelming the negative effects of the -PNA. As we moved into January, the +PNA kicked in at times to aid the cold air delivery as the AO/NAO flipped back and forth - and +. So, both the -NAO and +PNA are patterns that can deliver cold air. If relying solely on a +PNA pattern, you are likely going to have to rely on proper timing of the cold air with storm systems to get a widespread winter storm...whereas a sustained -NAO pattern can sustain the cold air longer and widen the timing window for potential winter storms. excellent analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 9:51 PM, franklin NCwx said: Until they get too suppressed. Did You guys got left out of the heavy snow last year? we seemed to miss the heavy snow, and have missed what i consider heavy snow since the 90s. We have had a couple of 4 inch events here since that time, but largely have gotten nickled and dimed. This is all without looking so I guess some of this could be perception, but I usually don't forget really good ones like 96, 98, and of course 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 FYI, Van Denton is turrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Looks like more good news on the Stratospheric warming front... I really don't have enough knowledge about the subject to provide any input, but some more folks are starting to bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 8:08 PM, NCSNOW said: With all the mega cold building up at the polls, Lets keep this forum about weather and leave the politics out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/14/2011 at 2:19 AM, jburns said: Lets keep this forum about weather and leave the politics out of it. I've already quoted you in my signature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/14/2011 at 1:12 AM, tnweathernut said: we seemed to miss the heavy snow, and have missed what i consider heavy snow since the 90s. We have had a couple of 4 inch events here since that time, but largely have gotten nickled and dimed. This is all without looking so I guess some of this could be perception, but I usually don't forget really good ones like 96, 98, and of course 93. Didn't you all get more than that from the December 2009 storm? Also, what about the January 30, 2010 one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajaronw10 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 9:42 PM, Jon said: Yeah, really. Obviously you think a flake in the evening/night of christmas day counts, I don't. A lot of people consider a white christmas 1" of accumulating snow or more on christmas day. That didn't happen for our area. A white christmas to me is opening presents and looking outside seeing the ground, trees, cars, etc covered in white snow, hence, a white christmas. My area accumulated around 0.5" MAYBE, yours most likely a trace before midnight on 12/26. On the top map, the one for Dec 25.. It has my area painted in the .5 zone.. (Southwestern Cleveland County).. That isn't entirely accurate though.. I went outside at around 10 PM Christmas night and measures right at 2 inches in 3 different spots around my house.. On my back patio, on the driveway and in the grass.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/14/2011 at 2:31 AM, chapelhillwx said: I've already quoted you in my signature... Not sure what to make out of this response. I hope it means you thought this one was funny too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I bet the 00z GFS shows something nice in the 300hr+ time frame with a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/14/2011 at 4:34 AM, jburns said: Not sure what to make out of this response. I hope it means you thought this one was funny too. Yup. I was laughing and about to post that it would be added to my sig, but then I realized: a ) the context would be hard to put into that small a space b ) your comment from last winter is already there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/14/2011 at 4:43 AM, Jon said: I bet the 00z GFS shows something nice in the 300hr+ time frame with a -NAO Didn't look at the AO/NAO charts but just from the maps it looks like it was laughing at us for wanting to believe there would be a good deep sustained cold with shots at frozen precip. Jokes always on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/14/2011 at 3:25 AM, Lee said: Didn't you all get more than that from the December 2009 storm? Also, what about the January 30, 2010 one? Absolutely. I had around eight inches on the first one. I had seven on the second one. I do think what tnweathernut is tryng to say is that it's been quite some time since we have had +1 foot of snow in a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 On 12/13/2011 at 9:42 PM, Jon said: Yeah, really. Obviously you think a flake in the evening/night of christmas day counts, I don't. A lot of people consider a white christmas 1" of accumulating snow or more on christmas day. That didn't happen for our area. A white christmas to me is opening presents and looking outside seeing the ground, trees, cars, etc covered in white snow, hence, a white christmas. My area accumulated around 0.5" MAYBE, yours most likely a trace before midnight on 12/26. It started snowing Christmas evening and was coming down hard Christmas night. That's enough to call it a white Christmas for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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