When will the pattern change to cold occur?

[Guest Pamela]

late December 1984 there was a snowstorm between torches...3-5" fell...It melted in 70 degree temperatures a few days later...

http://climate.usurf...ucts/output.php

Remember that storm like it was yesterday; went hiking in the West Hills County Park that day...6.8" of snow measured at the NWS cooperative at Westbury in central Nassau County.

[BxEngine]

late january

Any science behind this or did you mean to put this in the banter thread.

[Isotherm]

Seems like a lot of folks are writing winter off around here. HM's comments to me didn't seem all that pessimistic; he also thought the Dec 5th-10th period needs to be watched for the Northeast, and after the 20th.

Mid dec definitely looks warm now, so the original 15th idea likely won't work out, but for now I see no reason to back down from the Dec 20th+ period becoming more favorable as the MJO propagates into better octants for cold. Especially as we get to Christmas and beyond.

[Guest Pamela]

Seems like a lot of folks are writing winter off around here.

Lot of outs left in this ballgame....

[earthlight]

Lot of outs left in this ballgame....

Did we start yet? I thought we were just in warm ups.

[Isotherm]

Good thing about our area is we have snow potential DJFM, so it's pretty difficult to get a pattern that blows chunks to lock in for 3-4 months straight. As long as we don't get a regime w/ nearly constant +NAO/AO/-PNA like 2007-08 (which I'd be stunned if that happens), we'll do fine. Personally I'd be surprised if the NAO does not average negative for this winter (based on conditions I mentioned in my outlook).

[Isotherm]

This afternoon's D 8-10 ECMWF and GFS:

PNA ridging/-EPO fairly impressive on both. ECMWF has more energy held back i nthe SW US per usual, meaning higher heights in the SE US. GFS more progressive w/ the s/w and thus the trough axis is over the Northeast. Either way a colder than normal temp regime for early dec with maybe some sneaky possibilities in that second week.

[SnoSki14]

True, if December fails, there's always January and February, I'm sure something good will turn up in those two months. I wouldn't be surprised, given the wacky pattern, that we see no snow and little cold for Dec-Feb and than get a HECS in March and an early April snowstorm with record cold. I would love a cold and snowy March.

[Momza]

1322530519[/url]' post='1149932']

True, if December fails, there's always January and February, I'm sure something good will turn up in those two months. I wouldn't be surprised, given the wacky pattern, that we see no snow and little cold for Dec-Feb and than get a HECS in March and an early April snowstorm with record cold. I would love a cold and snowy March.

Why waste a cold arctic outbreak in March? or a snowstorm that would disappear?

[Allsnow]

Why waste a cold arctic outbreak in March? or a snowstorm that would disappear?

If djf come out mild and snow less, I will take what I can in march. March 07 was a fun storm.

[Isotherm]

If djf come out mild and snow less, I will take what I can in march. March 07 was a fun storm.

Early March 2005 was fun w/ that flash freeze event. 3-5" of snow and roads frozen stiff for 24-36 hours after the storm.

Late winter 2005 was pretty awesome, 3-6" event on Feb 20th, 6" on the 25th, and 8-9" the last day of feb into March 1st.

[earthlight]

The absence of high latitude blocking on any ensemble mean or even the weeklies is concerning. Hopefully that responds soon.

[Allsnow]

Early March 2005 was fun w/ that flash freeze event. 3-5" of snow and roads frozen stiff for 24-36 hours after the storm.

Late winter 2005 was pretty awesome, 3-6" event on Feb 20th, 6" on the 25th, and 8-9" the last day of feb into March 1st.

That was a fun little stretch......all where late wet season snowfalls, which made it picture perfect. Then december 05 we had a nice little stretch, before the pattern flipped.

[uncle W]

The absence of high latitude blocking on any ensemble mean or even the weeklies is concerning. Hopefully that responds soon.

we can only hope it comes soon enough to give us a good period of wintry weather...hopefully February...

[Alpha5]

The absence of high latitude blocking on any ensemble mean or even the weeklies is concerning. Hopefully that responds soon.

Hard when the stratosphere is locked in a deep freeze

[TheTrials]

well the patterns have gone from awesome to crap in 30 days (december 2005, december 1989) it can go the other way too.

[Allsnow]

well the patterns have gone from awesome to crap in 30 days (december 2005, december 1989) it can go the other way too.

What type if pattern did we have for the first 3 weeks of dec 05?

[TheTrials]

the AO is all related to the sun, and there is a lag, so if the sun quiets down, it still will take time to calm down

[TheTrials]

What type if pattern did we have for the first 3 weeks of dec 05?

i dont have the 500mb in my memory bank, just remember the snow and cold.

[Allsnow]

i dont have the 500mb in my memory bank, just remember the snow and cold.

Yeah clipper, then a storm that gave phl 6, then the big storm that hammered nyc north. Isotherms does not like that storm.

[earthlight]

What type if pattern did we have for the first 3 weeks of dec 05?

That was a cold and stormy pattern for a week...the PV came south and then we had a monster shortwave traverse the country and give us snow.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2005/120912.png

[TheTrials]

That was a cold and stormy pattern for a week...the PV came south and then we had a monster shortwave traverse the country and give us snow.

http://www.meteo.psu...2005/120912.png

there was also some snow around thanksgiving and a few other events too.

[Allsnow]

That was a cold and stormy pattern for a week...the PV came south and then we had a monster shortwave traverse the country and give us snow.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2005/120912.png

Thanks john....pretty much had all our snow in one week that month.....if my memory serves me correct we had a postal hugger to end it all.....started that morning in the single digits, only to be raining by 9pm

[earthlight]

Thanks john....pretty much had all our snow in one week that month.....if my memory serves me correct we had a postal hugger to end it all.....started that morning in the single digits, only to be raining by 9pm

That winter was awful but bookended by the Dec 9 05 events and the Feb 12 06 event.

That was about it. I believe we had a tornado watch in January that year.

[Guest Pamela]

Early March 2005 was fun w/ that flash freeze event. 3-5" of snow and roads frozen stiff for 24-36 hours after the storm.

Late winter 2005 was pretty awesome, 3-6" event on Feb 20th, 6" on the 25th, and 8-9" the last day of feb into March 1st.

http://www.northshorewx.com/20050221.asp

[Sundog]

That winter was awful but bookended by the Dec 9 05 events and the Feb 12 06 event.

That was about it. I believe we had a tornado watch in January that year.

There was also that flash freeze during a January storm that started as rain that gave Jersey a nice snowfall while out east they battled a dry slot from hell.

[Absolute Humidity]

There was also that flash freeze during a January storm that started as rain that gave Jersey a nice snowfall while out east they battled a dry slot from hell.

That was the day my sons were born, during a flash freeze with temps in the 60's crashing into the 20's with 4" snow.

NJ freeways Ray's storm summery

[HM]

HM says the 12/15 predictions are in trouble

http://www.americanw...ost__p__1149317

In terms of December's expectations, I am okay with this occurring. I was thrown with how we would transition into December, but now it seems like we are back on track again. The mid-December warm spell was something that showed up during "winter outlook season" and this was especially true for the Plains. Many of the best analogs were warmest here and it also appeared like the sun would still be elevated enough for this along with the lingering +QBO. The classic Aleutian High-->RNA La Nina December pattern is on the way with no blocking, once the "EPO Ridge" retrogrades back to its classic position mid-month.

While wave activity will likely become more coherent in the next 10 days from Asia, the recent proton bursts into the stratosphere may counter them and keep the polar vortex stable and cold. Once clouds form, it becomes really hard to destroy the vortex early in the season. The +QBO and relative spike in solar activity has made for an exceptionally cold vortex again, just like last year. The new November solar data will be telling but my gut says January and February see a relative min in solar activity, possibly allowing for blocking to return again. The major question is: how will this manifest?

Will it be like 67-68 and both Jan and Feb are cold or will it be more like 56-57 where the stratospheric warming managed to downwell into the troposphere by Feb, but it still was a warm month (while January was cold).

[NorEaster27]

I don't really understand why the sun would become less active over the winter, we are finally moving out of the sollar min cycle.

[SnowGoose69]

I don't really understand why the sun would become less active over the winter, we are finally moving out of the sollar min cycle.

There can be small peaks and valleys within the minimum and maximum periods, it seems however; that for some reason when surges in solar activity occur in the fall they really tend to screw us during the winter, and this does not necessarily have to be during the solar maximum period either, there have been surges which occurred during relatively low periods in the October-November period which had killed winters before.