When will the pattern change to cold occur?

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensemble MJO forecast (EMON) is out as of Nov 15. As I guessed they majority have MJO still running between phases 4/5 into mid-Dec. The mean point is at phase 5 on Dec. 16.

If the MJO stays as robust as that prog shows, then its unlikely we see any real cold pattern in the east before 12/20 and perhaps Christmas.

[earthlight]

If the MJO stays as robust as that prog shows, then its unlikely we see any real cold pattern in the east before 12/20 and perhaps Christmas.

Yup, agreed. Although a more robust MJO impulse could help us in the end as we get towards Phase 8.

[Brian5671]

If the MJO stays as robust as that prog shows, then its unlikely we see any real cold pattern in the east before 12/20 and perhaps Christmas.

if the cold is delayed that long, do we only get a few weeks of winter or can we hold on into Feb?

[TheTrials]

Yup, agreed. Although a more robust MJO impulse could help us in the end as we get towards Phase 8.

we need a re-curving typhoon

[Neblizzard]

Yup, agreed. Although a more robust MJO impulse could help us in the end as we get towards Phase 8.

John regarding the MJO, what is needed to sustain a cold. Pattern in the east? Phase 8 then a stall?

[ORH_wxman]

Yup, agreed. Although a more robust MJO impulse could help us in the end as we get towards Phase 8.

Yes, unless we get a setup like this...where it remains robust in the warm phases and goes into the circle of death before the cold phases.

[earthlight]

Yes, unless we get a setup like this...where it remains robust in the warm phases and goes into the circle of death before the cold phases.

That might be one of the worst MJO phase space's I have ever seen. Electric bath for everybody.

[ORH_wxman]

John regarding the MJO, what is needed to sustain a cold. Pattern in the east? Phase 8 then a stall?

Generally phases 7,8,1 and then it goes into circle of death before re-emerging into the favorable phases again. You can have cold periods in the east that are sustained if the MJO is weak and sonme other factors are driving it. That is what happened in Feb 2007...weak MJO and the big EPO block dropped the cold into the CONUS.

[Neblizzard]

Generally phases 7,8,1 and then it goes into circle of death before re-emerging into the favorable phases again. You can have cold periods in the east that are sustained if the MJO is weak and sonme other factors are driving it. That is what happened in Feb 2007...weak MJO and the big EPO block dropped the cold into the CONUS.

Thank you Will, so if the MJO Is aggressive and moves swiftly thru the different phases and doesn't stall, it's hard to get a sustained cold pattern?

[earthlight]

Thank you Will, so if the MJO Is aggressive and moves swiftly thru the different phases and doesn't stall, it's hard to get a sustained cold pattern?

You don't want it flying through Phase 7/8. That's what it is essentially doing right now. The MJO is in Phase 8 but it's extremely transient and moving into Phase 1. So we'll see a very transient cold shot and lower height anomalies. And the cold air source stinks because of the PNA and EPO.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f60.gif

[ORH_wxman]

Thank you Will, so if the MJO Is aggressive and moves swiftly thru the different phases and doesn't stall, it's hard to get a sustained cold pattern?

Well it generally takes a couple weeks to move through 2 phases unless its absolutely moving so I would consider that long enough for a sustained cold pattern if those are cold phases. Keep in mind the MJO is only one factor...when its robust, its a pretty big factor, but when its weaker near the circle of death, its influence is minimal.

Ideally you'd like to see the MJO robust in phases 7 through 2 and then go weak or non-existent in phases 3-6. (esp 3-5) Basically the opposite of that 2006-2007 winter graph I posted. Some winters it never gets strong and it plays no part in our pattern.

[KEITH L.I]

Can we please stop giving forecasts for over a month away..and btw these are mostly from Mets who know better..I'd rather check out the CFS for next summer..I don't why this board has gone insane with this stuff this year

[earthlight]

Can we please stop giving forecasts for over a month away..and btw these are mostly from Mets who know better..I'd rather check out the CFS for next summer..I don't why this board has gone insane with this stuff this year

If you don't want to read speculation on long range forecasting, don't come into a thread which was specifically created to discuss long range forecasting/speculation.

[ORH_wxman]

Can we please stop giving forecasts for over a month away..and btw these are mostly from Mets who know better..I'd rather check out the CFS for next summer..I don't why this board has gone insane with this stuff this year

Speculation is not the same as giving a forecast.

[KEITH L.I]

If you don't want to read speculation on long range forecasting, don't come into a thread which was specifically created to discuss long range forecasting.

thanks..your right..see ya in December

[earthlight]

These MJO temperature composites I feel are more useful this go-around. The ones posted yesterday I believe were DJF. There's a bit of a wavelength discrepancy as we get further into the winter compared to now and this current MJO pulse. Anyway, for the poster who asked about the temperature correlations..these tell the tale pretty well. P.S Feel free to make fun of my spelling error at the bottom of this graphic.

[ORH_wxman]

These MJO temperature composites I feel are more useful this go-around. The ones posted yesterday I believe were DJF. There's a bit of a wavelength discrepancy as we get further into the winter compared to now and this current MJO pulse. Anyway, for the poster who asked about the temperature correlations..these tell the tale pretty well. .

This is a good page too made by Raleighwx

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html

You can go by month in this page.

[earthlight]

This is a good page too made by Raleighwx

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html

You can go by month in this page.

Yeah that one is great as well. You can see the big discrepancy between November and December with Phase 8 as there are some significant wavelength changes going on at that time. The negative 500mb departures in Phase 8 are present for DJF (Feb being the most robust on the order of 30-40m).

[Neblizzard]

Well it generally takes a couple weeks to move through 2 phases unless its absolutely moving so I would consider that long enough for a sustained cold pattern if those are cold phases. Keep in mind the MJO is only one factor...when its robust, its a pretty big factor, but when its weaker near the circle of death, its influence is minimal.

You couldn't of explained it better, thank you. One thing that is concerning to me is the huge cold sphere near AK and Canada, it's hard to get blocking ridges to form in that set up. Could one speculate that it may be hard to sustain an- EPO pattern this winter? It's so early in the game but something to think about ...

Ideally you'd like to see the MJO robust in phases 7 through 2 and then go weak or non-existent in phases 3-6. (esp 3-5) Basically the opposite of that 2006-2007 winter graph I posted. Some winters it never gets strong and it plays no part in our pattern.

[Weathergun]

If the MJO stays as robust as that prog shows, then its unlikely we see any real cold pattern in the east before 12/20 and perhaps Christmas.

That's what I thought earlier too. And I'm favoring that time-frame now, for this pattern change.

[NYCSuburbs]

Lots of great posts throughout the last few pages, especially earthlight's discussion, which was an excellent one. I saw a lot of posts related to the MJO though, and how do we know that it would continue to move through the phases and reach the favorable ones instead of just falling into the COD? If it falls into the COD or just speeds through the favorable phases like it's doing now, would it have any significant implications on the pattern change assuming that the other teleconnections become more favorable by then, or would it not have much of an impact?

[ORH_wxman]

Lots of great posts throughout the last few pages, especially earthlight's discussion, which was an excellent one. I saw a lot of posts related to the MJO though, and how do we know that it would continue to move through the phases and reach the favorable ones instead of just falling into the COD? If it falls into the COD or just speeds through the favorable phases like it's doing now, would it have any significant implications on the pattern change assuming that the other teleconnections become more favorable by then, or would it not have much of an impact?

We don't know for sure, but ensemble guidance and some other factors down in the PAC sort of support the idea of the MJO staying fairly strong through phases 3/4 and possibly beyond.

Ideally it would weaken into the COD before reaching phase 4 and we see some changes happen sooner, but I think I'd favor the scenario we don't want at this point...but it by no means is anything set in stone this far out.

[NYCSuburbs]

We don't know for sure, but ensemble guidance and some other factors down in the PAC sort of support the idea of the MJO staying fairly strong through phases 3/4 and possibly beyond.

Ideally it would weaken into the COD before reaching phase 4 and we see some changes happen sooner, but I think I'd favor the scenario we don't want at this point...but it by no means is anything set in stone this far out.

Agreed, this far out nothing is certain, another reason why it's way too early to give up hope on this winter, but so far, it seems that the scenarios that we don't want to happen are the ones verifying, as with the strongly negative PNA, positive EPO, rising NAO... There do seem to be slight improvements with the teleconnections towards the end of the month, but the MJO and EPO still aren't where we'd want them to be. Assuming that the MJO does proceed beyond phase 4 without falling into the COD but does not rush through phases 6-8, mid December would appear to be a reasonable time frame for a pattern change as others have previously said; hopefully the pattern in the Pacific and in Canada will be more favorable by then.

[Isotherm]

Comparing the NCPE and ECMWF MJO forecasts, the Euro is much more bullish on pushing the MJO wave through phase 3 and into phase 4 by December, much quicker than the NCPE which has it into phase 2 by Dec 1st.

The ECMWF has generally been the superior model MJO wise, so if we follow this progression, p 4 by dec 1st, I'd feel pretty confident about a mid December pattern reversal for the East. Given the amplitude of the MJO protrayed on the ECMWF, we'd probably be seeing a solid warm period for early dec.

[ORH_wxman]

Comparing the NCPE and ECMWF MJO forecasts, the Euro is much more bullish on pushing the MJO wave through phase 3 and into phase 4 by December, much quicker than the NCPE which has it into phase 2 by Dec 1st.

The ECMWF has generally been the superior model MJO wise, so if we follow this progression, p 4 by dec 1st, I'd feel pretty confident about a mid December pattern reversal for the East. Given the amplitude of the MJO protrayed on the ECMWF, we'd probably be seeing a solid warm period for early dec.

Tonight's Euro weeklies support an idea of the MJO going into phase 5/6 by mid month as it erodes the AK vortex and the Aleutian ridge is flexing its muscle more. It will be interesting to see if that happens. Canada finally becomes very cold again by Mid-December according to the weeklies.

[Weathergun]

Tonight's Euro weeklies support an idea of the MJO going into phase 5/6 by mid month as it erodes the AK vortex and the Aleutian ridge is flexing its muscle more. It will be interesting to see if that happens. Canada finally becomes very cold again by Mid-December according to the weeklies.

If the MJO is still in phase 5/6 in mid December, it could still take until the 12/20 or so, for any major changes in the East. There is already a lag time with the pattern about a week or so, with the favorable phases we are in now.

[earthlight]

No doubt about it, the GEFS have trended much better. The Euro data is still at odds with this solution as they take the MJO into the unfavorable phases as a moderate impulse.

[supermeh]

No doubt about it, the GEFS have trended much better. The Euro data is still at odds with this solution as they take the MJO into the unfavorable phases as a moderate impulse.

Much better. Do not want this to go to 4 or 5 and then the COD.

[NYCSuburbs]

No doubt about it, the GEFS have trended much better. The Euro data is still at odds with this solution as they take the MJO into the unfavorable phases as a moderate impulse.

Would the MJO going into the COD earlier help change the pattern before mid December, or would it simply keep us more seasonable instead of warmer than average? The GEFS taking it through the COD is somewhat better as phases 1-5 are unfavorable for cold, but there's still the +EPO/-PNA pattern and the weakening cold air in southern/central Canada through the end of this month.

[Hailstorm]

HM in the main thread just gave the East Coast a possible dire outlook for snow lovers. In a nutshell, he stated that the QBO just peaked at a very positive value; and that the solar flux values are high also. This does not bode well for warming up the stratosphere to favorable levels. Also, with the positive +AAM and +EPO values, this may keep the MJO moving very quickly and weakly thorough all of the phases through early January.