earthlight Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 that block is useless if there's a black hole over alaska... winter is toast. remember how the vortex never died in 06/07? I wouldn't deem it useless as the mean trough is in retrograde over the Gulf of Alaska. It would at least help us out in that synoptic pattern. We never had robust positive height anomalies near the Davis Straight in 06/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 I wouldn't deem it useless as the mean trough is in retrograde over the Gulf of Alaska. It would at least help us out in that synoptic pattern. We never had robust positive height anomalies near the Davis Straight in 06/07. Agree. I think there were a handful of times last winter when we had a crappy Pacific but the -NAO held; it essentially kept temperatures in check in the Northeast, allowing us to hold onto our snowpack. Yes, it's more difficult to get large scale amplification with the +EPO, but I'd take my chances with a davis straits block any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Looked that one up on Ray's site as I had no recollection whatsoever of a mid dec event in 2003. Sure enough, we only picked up 1" in CNJ. Most of the SW flow events in a poor pattern tend to produce for NW NJ and New England, screwing NYC southward. that event was a major interior noreaster... not a swfe and we got a foot plus a week before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I wouldn't deem it useless as the mean trough is in retrograde over the Gulf of Alaska. It would at least help us out in that synoptic pattern. We never had robust positive height anomalies near the Davis Straight in 06/07. those anomalies are in response to the huge vortex over alaska causing sw flow in canada... it's not really a block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 those anomalies are in response to the huge vortex over alaska causing sw flow in canada... it's not really a block It serves a purpose, whether it's a cut-off block or not. There'd still be a buckling off the pattern...wavelengths would still favor the possibility of a mean trough over the Central and/or Eastern 1/3 of the US. It would be transient, but it would still kill off the monster SE Ridge that was present earlier...when the big anomalies were over the West Coast of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Agree. I think there were a handful of times last winter when we had a crappy Pacific but the -NAO held; it essentially kept temperatures in check in the Northeast, allowing us to hold onto our snowpack. Yes, it's more difficult to get large scale amplification with the +EPO, but I'd take my chances with a davis straits block any day of the week. Well the problem with that is that last winter, every block was a cutoff monster over the Davis Straight and Central Canada. What we're seeing modeled isn't exactly that--but it's not terrible or east based, either. Somewhere in between, I guess. We have a long way to go, as forky mentioned, with that monster trough over the GOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffsbass Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Am nobody, but I've lived here my whole life (57). And I can tell you one thing, you will never see a cold or snowy winter from DEC to March (non-stop), not in Jersey (NYC area).The only time I saw that kind of a winter was when I went to college near lake placid, New York. Winter starts in Oct and ends in May. Except for the Jan thaw. I love the cold and snow,but I tell you one thing you get tired of it. Never saw the sun much in Nov, Dec,,, until the lakes froze over.Jan was just plain cold. What am saying is, that around here it's not going to happen, it will always be up and down. warm/ cold, rain/ snow. If you want long cold winters move north or live up around 2000ft. Can it happen here,yes, but it's very rare. I look at this way,at least I can sleep without the a/c on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 It serves a purpose, whether it's a cut-off block or not. There'd still be a buckling off the pattern...wavelengths would still favor the possibility of a mean trough over the Central and/or Eastern 1/3 of the US. It would be transient, but it would still kill off the monster SE Ridge that was present earlier...when the big anomalies were over the West Coast of the US. The models before, were also showing this scenario happening this week. That "block" would essentially take over. And we know that's not going to happen now. So the issue here is how much you believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 that event was a major interior noreaster... not a swfe and we got a foot plus a week before Yup--12/5/03 was a monster storm after a blowtorch Nov...the middle of Dec event came a week later and flipped to rain after about 3 inches here...rest of the month was warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Just for shiggles, here's a temp composite map of all Novembers preceding 40"+ winters in NYC since 1960. Of the 12 years, 10 were warm. Only 1995 and 2002 had cold Novembers. So don't worry, a Nov torch in itself means little. It would do us good to get some significant precipitation events in before the end of the month. Precipitation seems to be more important than temperature in November. Most of the driest Novembers did not feature snowy winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 It would do us good to get some significant precipitation events in before the end of the month. Precipitation seems to be more important than temperature in November. Most of the driest Novembers did not feature snowy winters. Agree...and most areas are sitting on less than a quarter inch this month...IMBY I have a trace for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Agree...and most areas are sitting on less than a quarter inch this month...IMBY I have a trace for the month And??? Models are projecting that we get to around normal by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Euro ensemble MJO forecast (EMON) is out as of Nov 15. As I guessed they majority have MJO still running between phases 4/5 into mid-Dec. The mean point is at phase 5 on Dec. 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 And??? Models are projecting that we get to around normal by the end of the month. As long as that is reality and we get to 3-4 inches by the end of the month then we're good-what if we underperform and we're at 1-2 inches for the month? the last several events have grossly underperformed--upton had a washout for the area last week that verified as zero rain for most. (except far Eastern LI And CT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 As long as that is reality and we get to 3-4 inches by the end of the month then we're good-what if we underperform and we're at 1-2 inches for the month? the last several events have grossly underperformed--upton had a washout for the area last week that verified as zero rain for most. (except far Eastern LI And CT) Two inches I wouldn't be sure about. It's not that much below normal to really be top 20 or anything, as November is usually a fairly dry month to begin with. If we're at one inch, I would feel pretty confident in less snow than normal this upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 It looks like a half to 3/4" thru Thursday then another dry stretch until when, the middle of next week? Anything beyond that is a crapshoot at this point...I could still us easily staying below 2" for the month just as we could finish wet and get closer to normal. As long as that is reality and we get to 3-4 inches by the end of the month then we're good-what if we underperform and we're at 1-2 inches for the month? the last several events have grossly underperformed--upton had a washout for the area last week that verified as zero rain for most. (except far Eastern LI And CT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I've pretty much discussed all of this at length in this thread, but here's an article i wrote about the pattern moving forward the next 2 weeks. http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/p/technical-feature.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Looked that one up on Ray's site as I had no recollection whatsoever of a mid dec event in 2003. Sure enough, we only picked up 1" in CNJ. Most of the SW flow events in a poor pattern tend to produce for NW NJ and New England, screwing NYC southward. 6 Inches here in Queens from that mid December event; LGA reported around 5 inches of snow. Despite the fact that you're pretty close, these distances sometimes play a huge role (Feb 5th comes to mind...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 storms like 12/14/2003 are a nightmare near the coast...same for 01/11/1991...I'd rather it be 80 and Sunny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 6 Inches here in Queens from that mid December event; LGA reported around 5 inches of snow. Despite the fact that you're pretty close, these distances sometimes play a huge role (Feb 5th comes to mind...) Yeah, I think we got 5 or 6 inches as well. Changeover never really came, just ended as drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Yeah, I think we got 5 or 6 inches as well. Changeover never really came, just ended as drizzle. it changed to heavy rain on Staten Island and most of the 5" we got washed away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 it changed to heavy rain on Staten Island and most of the 5" we got washed away... Maybe I am not remembering correctly. But I do remember that it accumulated more than was forecast, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Maybe I am not remembering correctly. But I do remember that it accumulated more than was forecast, correct? I think so which made it harder to watch as it changed to rain...1/11/1991 was similar but it changed to rain while most of us were sleeping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Yeah I remember it staying snow longer than forecasted so we picked up a few more inches before the changeover. But I don't really remember how much rain. There was another similar snow in January I believe. Basically west of the hudson it stayed all snow and east it was mostly rain but eventually changed over everywhere as colder air worked in. This was not one of the bigger snows that month but was a surprise of sorts. I know it was on the weekend. edit: I looked it up and it was on 1/18/04, a couple days after the infamous 30 to 1 ratio clipper with temps in the single digits and teens. The 1/11/91 storm was initially quite cold as we started in the low 20s and got up to 6" before it started to mix with sleet and eventually rain late at night. I don't think we had as much rain as expected so most of the snow was still there the next morning I think so which made it harder to watch as it changed to rain...1/11/1991 was similar but it changed to rain while most of us were sleeping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Maybe I am not remembering correctly. But I do remember that it accumulated more than was forecast, correct? It did. IMBY we had 75% of it as snow, but when it fipped to heavy rain the temps shot up to 38-40 and that aided in the washaway component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 In western ct we had about 6 inches then we changed to freezing rain and had about a 1/4 in of ice on december 14-15, 2003, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 the storms that changed to rain near the end of the event usually had most of its accumulations on the ground at the end...The ones that had temperatures rise above freezing after it ended saw a fast melt down...There was a storm on 12/21-22/1962 with snowfall from 2pm until 1am that changed to rain and ended early the next morning...3-4" of snow became slush and most of it melted before freezing temperatures returned...12/21/1962 started out at 10 degrees but was around 30 at midnight...upper 30's the next day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I've pretty much discussed all of this at length in this thread, but here's an article i wrote about the pattern moving forward the next 2 weeks. http://nymetrowx.blo...al-feature.html awesome stuff, and thank you and isotherm for answering my question about the east and west based NAO.I definitley understand it better now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 I've pretty much discussed all of this at length in this thread, but here's an article i wrote about the pattern moving forward the next 2 weeks. http://nymetrowx.blo...al-feature.html John -- great post. Let's hope we're both correct about the mid December time frame. I find it very hard to believe Dec will be a front to end torch month given the analogs, models, and other indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Maybe I am not remembering correctly. But I do remember that it accumulated more than was forecast, correct? EWR had 4", but only 1" was left the next morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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