Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 MD out for a probable Tornado Watch this afternoon. LAF inside the greatest threat outline/shading. Temp/dew soaring here, up to 67/60 at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 141724Z - 141900Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 18Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CENTERED OVER CNTRL IL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND INTO NWRN OH. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ACCELERATED ALONG THE N OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NWD WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS NOW EXTENDING N OF IND. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELDS NOW INCREASING NEAR THE LOW CENTER/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...AND ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A BIT SWWD ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE CIN HAS ERODED AS WELL. WITH CONTINUED FORCING AND POCKETS OF HEATING...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE SOON OVER CNTRL AND E CNTRL IL...MOVING QUICKLY EWD CROSS INDIANA AND INTO WRN OH LATER TODAY. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE VERY STRONG...AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. WHILE SOME UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO REMAIN UPRIGHT INITIALLY...WITH TIME THEY ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO MATURE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND. A STORM OR TWO MAY RIDE RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH A CORRIDOR OF PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES POSSIBLE THERE. ..JEWELL.. 11/14/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Really liking the pooling of dews just south of the east/west boundary. Several locations in the 63-65 range. Visible shows a nice NE/SW oriented line of developing TCU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The cell going up ESE of ILX will need to be watched as its going up right in the 0-3km CAPE bullseye and moving into 72/64 air with strong SW sfc winds. The boundary looks like its right along US 24 in northern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Tornado Watch is out for a good chunk of Indiana until 9pm EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Good luck keeping up with those storms if chasing lol MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 MD out for a probable Tornado Watch this afternoon. LAF inside the greatest threat outline/shading. Temp/dew soaring here, up to 67/60 at noon. Well now we know for sure that instability isn't a problem given that temps are generally at/above forecast. Not many reporting sites near the front but GUS is 65 and they are very close to it per that map anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 Good luck keeping up with those storms if chasing lol MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050. In Ohio Valley, you don't chase storm, storm chase you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Tornado Watch is out for a good chunk of Indiana until 9pm EST. Includes areas of Illinois outside of the slight risk area. Convection taking off sooner/quicker than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Man those cells south of Kankakee went up FAST! Already pushing 30k ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 storms really firing just north of the red box lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Impressive day ahead for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 DISCUSSION...INCIPIENT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHERE PRESSURE FALLS ARE FOCUSING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HERE...AREA VAD AND RUC OBJECTIVE DATA INDICATE VERY STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ANTICIPATED FAST STORM MOTIONS...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD BE STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 LOT put an SPS on that storm near Buckley and included funnel clouds in the wording. And already a bit of rotation too. 42 kts G2G on the lowest level SRV scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 Still not sure how this will turn out but no doubt the shear is pretty scary. There is apparently a rapid increase in temps as you go south of the front so we can infer that there may be adequate instability near the front. If not discrete cells, I guess I shouldn't underestimate the QLCS tornado potential since they have been finding like 20 tornadoes in some of our QLCS's this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 From ILX: LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWED LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN PITTSFIELD ANDCOLUMBIA MO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ALONG A QUINCY TO DANVILLE LINE. ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT... ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA. WARM SECTOR HAS SEEN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN WITH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 0-1KM HELICITY OF 400-600 M2/S2 IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAPES PROGGED TO RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN. LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK SHOWING A HATCHED 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BACK EDGE ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Hoosier you going to go take a gander at those storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 LOT put an SPS on that storm near Buckley and included funnel clouds in the wording. And already a bit of rotation too. 42 kts G2G on the lowest level SRV scan. Good call. Tornado warned now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1201 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL FORD COUNTY... IROQUOIS COUNTY... * UNTIL 1245 PM CST * AT 1156 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF BUCKLEY...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAXTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... ONARGA AND GILMAN AROUND 1215 PM. WATSEKA AROUND 1235 PM. SHELDON AROUND 1240 PM. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CRESCENT CITY...WOODLAND...IROQUOIS AND DONOVAN. BEACHLER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 watch probs Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (50%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (30%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 Hoosier you going to go take a gander at those storms? I can't until later and it may be too late by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Temps now up to 70 @ IND, and LAF @ 69.. Getting a few breaks in the overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 crazy temperature gradient from IKK to TIP, almost 30 degree difference over 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The tornado warned cell is hugging the boundary. 68 just south of Watseka on one of the APRS sites, while it's only 46 in Kankakee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I can't until later and it may be too late by then. Well if you could chase, at least daylight looks to be on our side. Temps now up to 70 @ IND, and LAF @ 69.. Getting a few breaks in the overcast Socked in here with overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Hopefully with the storms firing further west then expected they will line up quicker and that will cut down the tornado threat some over in Central Indiana. Also for my sake Im heading to work in an hour and we have to head to the basement if were under a tor. warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Winds are really howling now. Just measured a gust to 40mph from the south. Winds have been trying to back SE but not as much in the last 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Cloud cover definitely thinning out across SE IN/SW OH and also back around Decatur and Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 After thinking about it for a short time this morning, I decided not to chase for a few reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Cloud cover definitely thinning out across SE IN/SW OH and also back around Decatur and Springfield. Temp is up to 72 with overcast skies. If the sun came out I'd def. be a bit more worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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