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November 14 Severe Weather Threat


Hoosier

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1124 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141724Z - 141900Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND A TORNADO

WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 18Z.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CENTERED OVER CNTRL IL...WITH A WARM

FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND INTO NWRN OH. PRESSURE

FALLS HAVE ACCELERATED ALONG THE N OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS

GRADUALLY SHIFTING NWD WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS NOW EXTENDING N OF

IND.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELDS NOW

INCREASING NEAR THE LOW CENTER/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...AND ALSO

BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A BIT SWWD ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE CIN HAS ERODED AS

WELL. WITH CONTINUED FORCING AND POCKETS OF HEATING...STORMS SHOULD

INITIATE SOON OVER CNTRL AND E CNTRL IL...MOVING QUICKLY EWD CROSS

INDIANA AND INTO WRN OH LATER TODAY.

DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE VERY STRONG...AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES

ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. WHILE SOME UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO

REMAIN UPRIGHT INITIALLY...WITH TIME THEY ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO

MATURE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND. A STORM OR

TWO MAY RIDE RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH A CORRIDOR OF

PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES POSSIBLE THERE.

..JEWELL.. 11/14/2011

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MD out for a probable Tornado Watch this afternoon. LAF inside the greatest threat outline/shading. :popcorn: Temp/dew soaring here, up to 67/60 at noon.

Well now we know for sure that instability isn't a problem given that temps are generally at/above forecast. Not many reporting sites near the front but GUS is 65 and they are very close to it per that map anyway.

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DISCUSSION...INCIPIENT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

INVOF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHERE PRESSURE

FALLS ARE FOCUSING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HERE...AREA VAD AND RUC

OBJECTIVE DATA INDICATE VERY STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH

WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW

TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL

SHEAR AND ANTICIPATED FAST STORM MOTIONS...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD BE

STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED.

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Still not sure how this will turn out but no doubt the shear is pretty scary. There is apparently a rapid increase in temps as you go south of the front so we can infer that there may be adequate instability near the front. If not discrete cells, I guess I shouldn't underestimate the QLCS tornado potential since they have been finding like 20 tornadoes in some of our QLCS's this year.

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From ILX:

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWED LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN PITTSFIELD AND

COLUMBIA MO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ALONG A QUINCY TO

DANVILLE LINE. ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT...

ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA. WARM SECTOR HAS SEEN

TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN WITH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. SPC

MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 0-1KM HELICITY OF 400-600 M2/S2 IN THE WARM

SECTOR. CAPES PROGGED TO RISE TO 500-1000 J/KG AS THE TRAILING

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN. LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK SHOWING

A HATCHED 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST

CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR THIS

AFTERNOON...WITH THE BACK EDGE ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1201 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL FORD COUNTY...

IROQUOIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 1156 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF BUCKLEY...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST

OF PAXTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...

ONARGA AND GILMAN AROUND 1215 PM.

WATSEKA AROUND 1235 PM.

SHELDON AROUND 1240 PM.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE

CRESCENT CITY...WOODLAND...IROQUOIS AND DONOVAN.

BEACHLER

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