tornadotony Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I don't think we'll have problems realizing the NAM CAPE values. Tomorrow is ripe to overachieve with the strong SSW flow. If we somehow end up with less veered sfc flow then look out. If the NAM sfc flow pans out, then look out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 If the NAM sfc flow pans out, then look out... I still don't like it in most of the warm sector. Unless I'm missing something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND MID-MS VALLEY... ...OH VALLEY/MID-MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AN 80 TO 95 KT MID-LEVEL JET AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS LOWER MI...IND AND IL THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AROUND MIDDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR DISCRETE STORMS SHOULD EXIST EARLY AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SRN IND AND SW OH WHERE A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND INDIANAPOLIS AT 21Z SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IF STORMS CAN OBTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZES. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ADDED A 5 PERCENT TORNADO FROM INDIANAPOLIS SEWD TO NEAR THE OH RIVER WHERE THE COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC STORMS. AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST IN THIS AREA BUT THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE AS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE ORGANIZES FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 A little old but looks like we are starting the morning off with a bang. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 356 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN COLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 430 AM CST. * AT 352 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COOKS MILL...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MATTOON...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HUMBOLDT...RARDIN...OAKLAND...FAIRGRANGE AND BUSHTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Sign of things to come perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 10% hatched tornado risk for much of Central and Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 10% hatched tornado risk for much of Central and Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio. That feeling of anticipation of spring severe weather just came up again. Makes me really excited. Considering chasing today but depends on how I feel after I get off work at 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Hadn't planned on chasing today, but now I'm scrambling to get a half-day off at work....things are looking interesting. I especially like the mid level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 That feeling of anticipation of spring severe weather just came up again. Makes me really excited. Considering chasing today but depends on how I feel after I get off work at 3. Yeah I'm making arrangements to get out of here at 11 AM and plan on doing some chasing. I just don't want to venture to far from Darke County in case something would go down here. I definitely have that slight giddy feeling as well though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Leaving Springfield at noon, chasing with the iPhone today since I wasn't originally planning on being out there. I have a nervous feeling about today. My initial targets may be Shelbyville or Rushville, IN. Lots of roads options from those places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Yeah I'm making arrangements to get out of here at 11 AM and plan on doing some chasing. I just don't want to venture to far from Darke County in case something would go down here. I definitely have that slight giddy feeling as well though! I'm thinking I wont have to go far. May just hang around Greenwood or maybe just north of Seymour. The only problem I worry about is traffic and getting close to rush hour. Traffic this morning was already horrible with mutliple crashes so I hope people take things seriously this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Starting to get some sun peaking through now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I'm thinking I wont have to go far. May just hang around Greenwood or maybe just north of Seymour. The only problem I worry about is traffic and getting close to rush hour. Traffic this morning was already horrible with mutliple crashes so I hope people take things seriously this afternoon. The only other thing that stinks about chasing right now is the sun sets at like 5:40ish. Hopefully things get going fairly early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I'm thinking I wont have to go far. May just hang around Greenwood or maybe just north of Seymour. The only problem I worry about is traffic and getting close to rush hour. Traffic this morning was already horrible with mutliple crashes so I hope people take things seriously this afternoon. No doubt about that. Plus with all of standing water on some major roadways (from the down leaves), really made it a challenge this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The only other thing that stinks about chasing right now is the sun sets at like 5:40ish. Hopefully things get going fairly early. Haha true! Didn't even think about that issue. That's the nice thing about spring/summer chasing, you can chase for longer than planned from sunlight. Now, its dark just too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Haha true! Didn't even think about that issue. That's the nice thing about spring/summer chasing, you can chase for longer than planned from sunlight. Now, its dark just too early. Definitely not a lot of directional shear out there today, but I'm hoping the insane helicity values can make up for it. The hodos today actually look quite a bit similar to the November 10th, 2002 hodos (F4 Van Wert tornado). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 To those who are going out chasing today, stay safe and good luck. Just posting this for reanalysis sake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 To those who are going out chasing today, stay safe and good luck. Just posting this for reanalysis sake... I'm trying to get out of work by 11 (not that I'm doing any good here anyways haha), but we will likely be targeting somewhere between Indianapolis and Richmond depending on how things unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Sun is already out here in Springfield. Clouds seems to be clearing nicely....did I magically transport to April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 NAM sim radar seems to suggest more of a squall line scenario than discrete storms. I wouldn't doubt spin ups, but at least the NAM doesn't give me a significant tornado feel, more of a damaging straight line wind feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Sun is already out behind this mornings rain here in Western Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 First severe thunderstorm warnings of the morning for Grant, Huntington, Wells and Wabash County until 10:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Already 70 at PAH, OUL, OWB and SDF. Not bad for the middle of November. HNB has SSE winds already too! KHNB 141455Z AUTO 17020G29KT 10SM BKN028 21/14 A2976 RMK AO1 54000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 To those who are going out chasing today, stay safe and good luck. Just posting this for reanalysis sake... day1.tornado.gif I'm trying to get out of work by 11 (not that I'm doing any good here anyways haha), but we will likely be targeting somewhere between Indianapolis and Richmond depending on how things unfold. I'll wave when you go by. What a day to have a dentist appointment followed by OT at work. Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I'll wave when you go by. What a day to have a dentist appointment followed by OT at work. Sent from my ADR6400L Eh Valpo's not chasing today either. There must be a Synoptics test or something because apparently none of the chase leaders are available. Then again, at least to me there isn't a huge supercell threat either with the hodos not showing all that much curvature. I'm having a hard time finding any significant areas of backed surface flow later on today (which is why I was excited to see HNB backing already...I wonder if it will stick). Probably more of an MCS spin-up or QLCS spin-up day if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Eh Valpo's not chasing today either. There must be a Synoptics test or something because apparently none of the chase leaders are available. Then again, at least to me there isn't a huge supercell threat either with the hodos not showing all that much curvature. I'm having a hard time finding any significant areas of backed surface flow later on today (which is why I was excited to see HNB backing already...I wonder if it will stick). Probably more of an MCS spin-up or QLCS spin-up day if I had to guess. There's plenty of curvature in the hodos for at least QLCS tornadoes and/or embedded supercells with tornadoes, and any one of them could be strong today. The reason Valpo's not chasing is because we all have a lot of classes today and we couldn't justify missing that much class for a chase that would be so logistically difficult, given that we would have to get on the other side of the boundary before initiation and that sunset is so early. Trust me, it's not cool to not be out in this one, but sometimes life gets in the way and you make the best of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Interesting to note that the SPC meso already shows a decent area of surface cape of 1000j/kg over portions of southern Illinois. This is slightly ahead of the 12z NAM, and well above the current (15z) RUC forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Small cell going up near Springfield where it's up to 74. SPC may need to bump the slight a bit to the northwest to include more of central and eastern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 There's plenty of curvature in the hodos for at least QLCS tornadoes and/or embedded supercells with tornadoes, and any one of them could be strong today. The reason Valpo's not chasing is because we all have a lot of classes today and we couldn't justify missing that much class for a chase that would be so logistically difficult, given that we would have to get on the other side of the boundary before initiation and that sunset is so early. Trust me, it's not cool to not be out in this one, but sometimes life gets in the way and you make the best of it. Fair enough. That pre-23z sunset certainly is killer. Craig kind-of downplayed the threat in lecture this morning anyway. Anyway back to the threat itself. HNB is still reporting 170-degree winds while all other nearby stations have WD's of >180. I wonder if that's just an anomaly then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Fair enough. That pre-23z sunset certainly is killer. Craig kind-of downplayed the threat in lecture this morning anyway. Anyway back to the threat itself. HNB is still reporting 170-degree winds while all other nearby stations have WD's of >180. I wonder if that's just an anomaly then? Winds at my house have been blowing SE for a few hours now. Had a few gust recently to 30-35mph. 70 degrees here with a dew of 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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