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November 14 Severe Weather Threat


Hoosier

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day1otlk_20111114_1200_prt.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1150 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY

AND MID-MS VALLEY...

...OH VALLEY/MID-MS VALLEY...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD FROM THE

GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH...AN 80 TO 95 KT MID-LEVEL JET AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL

MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE

EWD ACROSS LOWER MI...IND AND IL THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS

INITIATING JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AROUND MIDDAY. THE GREATEST

CHANCE FOR DISCRETE STORMS SHOULD EXIST EARLY AS STORMS DEVELOP

ACROSS SRN IND AND SW OH WHERE A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS

DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS

AROUND INDIANAPOLIS AT 21Z SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR WITH SFC

DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.

THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IF

STORMS CAN OBTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE A LINE OF STRONG

THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZES. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ADDED A 5 PERCENT

TORNADO FROM INDIANAPOLIS SEWD TO NEAR THE OH RIVER WHERE THE

COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC

STORMS. AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST IN THIS AREA

BUT THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE AS A

NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE ORGANIZES FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO

THE MID-MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

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A little old but looks like we are starting the morning off with a bang.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

356 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN COLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 430 AM CST.

* AT 352 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COOKS MILL...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF

MATTOON...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

HUMBOLDT...RARDIN...OAKLAND...FAIRGRANGE AND BUSHTON.

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That feeling of anticipation of spring severe weather just came up again. Makes me really excited. Considering chasing today but depends on how I feel after I get off work at 3.

Yeah I'm making arrangements to get out of here at 11 AM and plan on doing some chasing. I just don't want to venture to far from Darke County in case something would go down here. I definitely have that slight giddy feeling as well though!

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Yeah I'm making arrangements to get out of here at 11 AM and plan on doing some chasing. I just don't want to venture to far from Darke County in case something would go down here. I definitely have that slight giddy feeling as well though!

I'm thinking I wont have to go far. May just hang around Greenwood or maybe just north of Seymour. The only problem I worry about is traffic and getting close to rush hour. Traffic this morning was already horrible with mutliple crashes so I hope people take things seriously this afternoon.

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I'm thinking I wont have to go far. May just hang around Greenwood or maybe just north of Seymour. The only problem I worry about is traffic and getting close to rush hour. Traffic this morning was already horrible with mutliple crashes so I hope people take things seriously this afternoon.

The only other thing that stinks about chasing right now is the sun sets at like 5:40ish. Hopefully things get going fairly early.

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I'm thinking I wont have to go far. May just hang around Greenwood or maybe just north of Seymour. The only problem I worry about is traffic and getting close to rush hour. Traffic this morning was already horrible with mutliple crashes so I hope people take things seriously this afternoon.

No doubt about that. Plus with all of standing water on some major roadways (from the down leaves), really made it a challenge this morning.

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The only other thing that stinks about chasing right now is the sun sets at like 5:40ish. Hopefully things get going fairly early.

Haha true! Didn't even think about that issue. That's the nice thing about spring/summer chasing, you can chase for longer than planned from sunlight. Now, its dark just too early.

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Haha true! Didn't even think about that issue. That's the nice thing about spring/summer chasing, you can chase for longer than planned from sunlight. Now, its dark just too early.

Definitely not a lot of directional shear out there today, but I'm hoping the insane helicity values can make up for it. The hodos today actually look quite a bit similar to the November 10th, 2002 hodos (F4 Van Wert tornado).

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To those who are going out chasing today, stay safe and good luck. :)

Just posting this for reanalysis sake...

attachicon.gifday1.tornado.gif

I'm trying to get out of work by 11 (not that I'm doing any good here anyways haha), but we will likely be targeting somewhere between Indianapolis and Richmond depending on how things unfold.

I'll wave when you go by. What a day to have a dentist appointment followed by OT at work.

Sent from my ADR6400L

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I'll wave when you go by. What a day to have a dentist appointment followed by OT at work.

Sent from my ADR6400L

Eh Valpo's not chasing today either. There must be a Synoptics test or something because apparently none of the chase leaders are available. thumbsdownsmileyanim.gif

Then again, at least to me there isn't a huge supercell threat either with the hodos not showing all that much curvature. I'm having a hard time finding any significant areas of backed surface flow later on today (which is why I was excited to see HNB backing already...I wonder if it will stick). Probably more of an MCS spin-up or QLCS spin-up day if I had to guess.

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Eh Valpo's not chasing today either. There must be a Synoptics test or something because apparently none of the chase leaders are available. thumbsdownsmileyanim.gif

Then again, at least to me there isn't a huge supercell threat either with the hodos not showing all that much curvature. I'm having a hard time finding any significant areas of backed surface flow later on today (which is why I was excited to see HNB backing already...I wonder if it will stick). Probably more of an MCS spin-up or QLCS spin-up day if I had to guess.

There's plenty of curvature in the hodos for at least QLCS tornadoes and/or embedded supercells with tornadoes, and any one of them could be strong today.

The reason Valpo's not chasing is because we all have a lot of classes today and we couldn't justify missing that much class for a chase that would be so logistically difficult, given that we would have to get on the other side of the boundary before initiation and that sunset is so early. Trust me, it's not cool to not be out in this one, but sometimes life gets in the way and you make the best of it.

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There's plenty of curvature in the hodos for at least QLCS tornadoes and/or embedded supercells with tornadoes, and any one of them could be strong today.

The reason Valpo's not chasing is because we all have a lot of classes today and we couldn't justify missing that much class for a chase that would be so logistically difficult, given that we would have to get on the other side of the boundary before initiation and that sunset is so early. Trust me, it's not cool to not be out in this one, but sometimes life gets in the way and you make the best of it.

Fair enough. That pre-23z sunset certainly is killer. Craig kind-of downplayed the threat in lecture this morning anyway.

Anyway back to the threat itself. HNB is still reporting 170-degree winds while all other nearby stations have WD's of >180. I wonder if that's just an anomaly then?

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Fair enough. That pre-23z sunset certainly is killer. Craig kind-of downplayed the threat in lecture this morning anyway.

Anyway back to the threat itself. HNB is still reporting 170-degree winds while all other nearby stations have WD's of >180. I wonder if that's just an anomaly then?

Winds at my house have been blowing SE for a few hours now. Had a few gust recently to 30-35mph. 70 degrees here with a dew of 63.

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