WOOF

[Kaner587]

The 18Z gfs has really trended west. It's a good run for the dec 19th storm. It may not be right but still says there is potential.

you're gonna have to start putting 2010 after that date haha its getting confusing

[Mitchel Volk]

My gut feeling is this thing needs to be watch. The ECMWF pick it up drop it and now return it, The GFS also has a similar scenario and the Candian agrees too. Now lets talk about the pattern which is very good at producing noreaster, so with all of this in mind I believe that is a good chance for east coast snow.

[Kaner587]

My gut feeling is this thing needs to be watch. The ECMWF pick it up drop it and now return it, The GFS also has a similar scenario and the Candian agrees too. Now lets talk about the pattern which is very good at producing noreaster, so with all of this in mind I believe that is a good chance for east coast snow.

great to hear from you! I think many agree with your sentiments here pattern is good, players are there now lets hope it unfolds to benefit the most ppl possible

[usedtobe]

My gut feeling is this thing needs to be watch. The ECMWF pick it up drop it and now return it, The GFS also has a similar scenario and the Candian agrees too. Now lets talk about the pattern which is very good at producing noreaster, so with all of this in mind I believe that is a good chance for east coast snow.

I've thought the odds were 25 percent for a storm and 75 against but the ensemble patterns especially of the 18Z gfs would argue my precentages are low. Here's teh gfs ensemble mean versus the composite for 8 significant dca snows.

the forecast,

Now compare that to the composite for the dca snows. The presence of a southern stream system and the position of the negative extending south of nova scotia is a good combo.

Finally, here's the euro ensemble mean, not quite as amplified but it woudln't take much of a change to bring it in line.

It has the same look but a little less amplitude. Increase that a little and you have a storm.

[stormtracker]

So Wes...we need you to be the voice of realism here...keep us grounded...if you had to go with your gut here...it has served us well last year. I'm not excited until you are.

[tcutter]

So Wes...we need you to be the voice of realism here...keep us grounded...if you had to go with your gut here...it has served us well last year. I'm not excited until you are.

but when he gets excited.............OH BOY!!!

[thunderman]

Wes (or anybody else for that matter), can you post the link to the super-ensembles?

[usedtobe]

So Wes...we need you to be the voice of realism here...keep us grounded...if you had to go with your gut here...it has served us well last year. I'm not excited until you are.

I'm certainly interested and think my 25 percent chance of a nice good event may now be a little low. I might bump it up to 30 but think it may actually be higher than that. However, I don't believe in big changes based on one run so I'll wait. The big positive is we finally have both models showing a southern stream. How we just need to get the timing and amplification of the northern stream right.

[Kaner587]

I'm certainly interested and think my 25 percent chance of a nice good event may now be a little low. I might bump it up to 30 but think it may actually be higher than that. However, I don't believe in big changes based on one run so I'll wait. The big positive is we finally have both models showing a southern stream. How we just need to get the timing and amplification of the northern stream right.

how rare is a southern stream in a strong la nina? I know its rare but are we talking about a couple times a season or what?

[usedtobe]

Wes (or anybody else for that matter), can you post the link to the super-ensembles?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=8

From there you can get to the D+11.

[thunderman]

http://www.cpc.ncep....nce.php?dayin=8

From there you can get to the D+11.

Thanks man, I really appreciate it!

[Midlo Snow Maker]

I'm certainly interested and think my 25 percent chance of a nice good event may now be a little low. I might bump it up to 30 but think it may actually be higher than that. However, I don't believe in big changes based on one run so I'll wait. The big positive is we finally have both models showing a southern stream. How we just need to get the timing and amplification of the northern stream right.

with so many days/models to go there is no need to over hype it up at this point. we know when you see the trigger you will pull it and weenies will hop on the bus

[winter_warlock]

12Z CMC damn this looks purdy .....

[mdsnowlover]

So Wes...we need you to be the voice of realism here...keep us grounded...if you had to go with your gut here...it has served us well last year. I'm not excited until you are.

I would tend to agree with stormtracker on his thinking. Were fortunate , to have in the mid atlantic, so many good mets, Wes is special. Well grounded and knowledgable.

[ArtRosen]

I know everyone likes to point out all the great hits last year, but lets not forget those storms that were duds for many:

New Years

January 30th

February 15th-16th

March 3rd

No throwing caution to the wind now... I believe all these were modeled to be big ones at some point and ended up being a dud for many (if not most).

Why does everyone have to bring up duds, especially the super-dud of Valentines Day 2007 and March 2001 whenever there's a big storm impending? That's more of a buzzkill than Buzz Killington.

[Ji]

30 is still very low.

That means..if we saw the same situation 10 times tonight, it would screw us 7 of those 10 times but 30 % is better than 0% so Ill take it

[Wow]

30 is still very low.

That means..if we saw the same situation 10 times tonight, it would screw us 7 of those 10 times but 30 % is better than 0% so Ill take it

thanks for the info

[notvirga!]

Vd 07 was awesome for Nw suburbs. 7" of sleet in Winchester. Didn't melt for weeks.

[GD0815]

I'm certainly interested and think my 25 percent chance of a nice good event may now be a little low. I might bump it up to 30 but think it may actually be higher than that. However, I don't believe in big changes based on one run so I'll wait. The big positive is we finally have both models showing a southern stream. How we just need to get the timing and amplification of the northern stream right.

I would think 5 days out 30% seems very reasonable, and also good odds, all things considered (snowstorms are relatively rare on the East Coast).

[baroclinic_instability]

This event has to be one of the most sensitive potential cyclogenesis events I have seen in a long time dependent upon so many small scale weather features interacting with one another at the right time. That said, there is a distinct possibility the models don't get this right all the way up until the event. Will be interesting to see if they ever actually catch on to a definitive solution, but there is an outside shot (small, but a chance) they don't catch on until the very last second.

[PhineasC]

This event has to be one of the most sensitive potential cyclogenesis events I have seen in a long time dependent upon so many small scale weather features interacting with one another at the right time. That said, there is a distinct possibility the models don't get this right all the way up until the event. Will be interesting to see if they ever actually catch on to a definitive solution, but there is an outside shot (small, but a chance) they don't catch on until the very last second.

You must not track EC storms much.

This sort of nonsense is typical around these parts.

[baroclinic_instability]

You must not track EC storms much.

This sort of nonsense is typical around these parts.

Ha, actually I do to a degree. I love all weather, and coastal storms are one of them. I don't have the memory of events like some of the East Coasters, but I have seen enough in my few years of forecasting since graduation. I have seen phase events such as this where the models continually flip-flop up until the event, and this could very well be one of them. This tri-phase is quite challenging for the models to handle, as we have seen. Either way though, it is a pretty outside shot of that happening. I think we should generally know within day 3 whether or not the UT/4 corners wave phases and amplifies the leading shortwave. If not, then all this talk won't matter.

[Chris L]

Ha, actually I do to a degree. I love all weather, and coastal storms are one of them. I don't have the memory of events like some of the East Coasters, but I have seen enough in my few years of forecasting since graduation. I have seen phase events such as this where the models continually flip-flop up until the event, and this could very well be one of them. This tri-phase is quite challenging for the models to handle, as we have seen. Either way though, it is a pretty outside shot of that happening. I think we should generally know within day 3 whether or not the UT/4 corners wave phases and amplifies the leading shortwave. If not, then all this talk won't matter.

Tri-phase? I know this is not your classic triple phase right?

[PhineasC]

Ha, actually I do to a degree. I love all weather, and coastal storms are one of them. I don't have the memory of events like some of the East Coasters, but I have seen enough in my few years of forecasting since graduation. I have seen phase events such as this where the models continually flip-flop up until the event, and this could very well be one of them. This tri-phase is quite challenging for the models to handle, as we have seen. Either way though, it is a pretty outside shot of that happening. I think we should generally know within day 3 whether or not the UT/4 corners wave phases and amplifies the leading shortwave. If not, then all this talk won't matter.

I agree. I think tomorrow is an important day. The players should all be on the field. The models struggled mightily last year with the blocking, though. Seems to be happening again.

[baroclinic_instability]

Tri-phase? I know this is not your classic triple phase right?

It is what I would call a partial triple phase. The weak upper tropospheric anomalies over the 4 corners/UT, then that system needs to partially phase with the northern stream messy vortex near the coast at the EXACT right time. Hence why some are calling this a "thread the needle" event.

[Chris L]

It is what I would call a partial triple phase. The weak upper tropospheric anomalies over the 4 corners/UT, then that system needs to partially phase with the northern stream messy vortex near the coast at the EXACT right time. Hence why some are calling this a "thread the needle" event.

Once again, thanks for the explaination.

I do see what you mean by thread in the needle event, I just felt that if we had a classic +PNA ridge along with +EPO ridge, things would be a heck of lot easier for it to come all togehter here.

[Yeoman]

I agree. I think tomorrow is an important day. The players should all be on the field. The models struggled mightily last year with the blocking, though. Seems to be happening again.

Actually the models had the major storms locked in at least 7 days out last year..

[PhineasC]

Actually the models had the major storms locked in at least 7 days out last year..

Yeah, like on December 17th when the GFS showed me fringed and getting like 3 inches.

[CheesyPoofs]

Actually the models had the major storms locked in at least 7 days out last year..

Not the December 19th event. It was really only about 72-84 hours before they latched on. I still remember the first run that really got everyone excited/thinking we had a shot... the 18z NAM run the Tuesday before.

[Feb]

Actually the models had the major storms locked in at least 7 days out last year..

The Euro, three days prior to last Decembers storm had me getting a couple of inches. I ended up with that plus 22 more.