nw baltimore wx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I once took this awful non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) geometry class. I was a freshman at the time. It was an entirely proof based course and I was in a bit over my head. Invariably I'd receive my tests and assignments back with the note, "Correct, but inelegant". An elegant proof would have been both pithy and unique. My proofs, however, were clumsy and invariably took twice as many steps as the other student's. This was, basically, because I was stupid. You're clearly not, but your writing can occasionally come across as a bit...complicated. Possibly to the point of requiring the reader invest operose effort in decoding your message. Perhaps even needlessly so. Thank you. I also took a non-Euclidean hyperbolic geometry course based on Poincare's half-plane. Fortunately, it was a summer course and as a result of the ineptitude of the seven of us in the class, the professor surrendered and we spent much of our time solving his self-made logic problems. As a result, I never had the privileged opportunity to hear that my thinking was "correct but inelegant." Something I think most of us could find valuable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 yes they do folks reading this thread neeed to knwo that this is real close to happening but we are NOT quite there yet there could be a point soon where all or some of the operational Models turns very Bullish on a secs OR mecs event real soon DT - Are you still issuing those conditions like you did last year (Alpha, Bravo, Omega, etc...)? If so, could you post what they mean or a link to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I once took this awful non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) geometry class. I was a freshman at the time. It was an entirely proof based course and I was in a bit over my head. Invariably I'd receive my tests and assignments back with the note, "Correct, but inelegant". An elegant proof would have been both pithy and unique. My proofs, however, were clumsy and invariably took twice as many steps as the other student's. This was, basically, because I was stupid. You're clearly not, but your writing can occasionally come across as a bit...complicated. Possibly to the point of requiring the reader invest operose effort in decoding your message. Perhaps even needlessly so. that ...... non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) geometry ... was my best math ever well that and statistics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 DT - Are you still issuing those conditions like you did last year (Alpha, Bravo, Omega, etc...)? If so, could you post what they mean or a link to it? Yes and yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 that ...... non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) geometry ... was my best math ever well that and statistics I never took that geometry course, Statistics is pretty cool, never liked Calc or Diffy q, but I do understand Calc better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Can you post the link? Alpha is HECS. Omega is MECS Bravo is SECS I think. Dave can correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Once the big greenland block retrogrades toward W canada, watch out!! You hit it on the head here bud, not enough can be said about the tremendous height pattern signal even on the suppressed GFS. It's ensemble mean's are a little more robust with the potential threat, but the block retrograding into Central and W Canada is the real beast in this pattern. What an awesome signal. Also, check out the link below it as well to see how much the entire flow amplifies 12 hours later, a testament to the potential here. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Alpha is HECS. Omega is MECS Bravo is SECS I think. Dave can correct me if I am wrong. Omega is less than Bravo, because it's further in the alphabet, and I believe they have more to do with intensity than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Oops, I meant to say more to do with likelihood! yeah, it definitely had to do with likelihood. he seems to have removed the "snowstorm" portion of his website... or else it's buried in links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 A couple of precious looking ensemble members here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 wow, you guys gotta see the 12z ECMWF! My text is bigger than yours. The question's gonna be whether or not the system will be able to dig that far south (developing over the northern Gulf/Gulf Coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The question's gonna be whether or not the system will be able to dig that far south (developing over the northern Gulf/Gulf Coast). Yea, my doubt is really about the strength of the southern impulse, whether it will dig as far as the ECM shows with the massive GoA low or slide out to sea more like the GFS. A bit skeptical of this type of storm in a strong La Niña although I supposed stranger things have happened...we do have an historic block in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yea, my doubt is really about the strength of the southern impulse, whether it will dig as far as the ECM shows with the massive GoA low or slide out to sea more like the GFS. A bit skeptical of this type of storm in a strong La Niña although I supposed stranger things have happened...we do have an historic block in town. a bit of skepticism is healthy in this situation, esp at this point, but model consistency over the next couple days would alleviate that for me at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yea, my doubt is really about the strength of the southern impulse, whether it will dig as far as the ECM shows with the massive GoA low or slide out to sea more like the GFS. A bit skeptical of this type of storm in a strong La Niña although I supposed stranger things have happened...we do have an historic block in town. Ditto, but it is the Euro and it isn't Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yea, my doubt is really about the strength of the southern impulse, whether it will dig as far as the ECM shows with the massive GoA low or slide out to sea more like the GFS. A bit skeptical of this type of storm in a strong La Niña although I supposed stranger things have happened...we do have an historic block in town. Was this what happened in March 1956? If not, we might have to extend our list of analogs to older la ninas You know which ones I mean lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yea, my doubt is really about the strength of the southern impulse, whether it will dig as far as the ECM shows with the massive GoA low or slide out to sea more like the GFS. A bit skeptical of this type of storm in a strong La Niña although I supposed stranger things have happened...we do have an historic block in town. I think your skepticism is warranted. the 12 euro ensemble mean has a much flatter look that would not threaten the east coast without some changes. beyond the 168 hr the mean looks cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Interesting PV split on NAM reminds me of some storms from last year with that sweet position of -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Was this what happened in March 1956? If not, we might have to extend our list of analogs to older la ninas You know which ones I mean lol. 1916-17 would be awesome, especially if next year was 1917-18. Could you imagine if it was -13 for the ball drop at Times Square? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Was this what happened in March 1956? If not, we might have to extend our list of analogs to older la ninas You know which ones I mean lol. December 1909, that one slipped through the La Nina cracks. Would be interesting to see those antecedent maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 1916-17 would be awesome, especially if next year was 1917-18. Could you imagine if it was -13 for the ball drop at Times Square? I could definitely say if it is that cold, my balls won't be dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 1916-17 would be awesome, especially if next year was 1917-18. Could you imagine if it was -13 for the ball drop at Times Square? Those were some unreal times lol-- I wonder what that would translate to with UHI? I noticed we havent gotten lower than -2 since the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 December 1909, that one slipped through the La Nina cracks. Would be interesting to see those antecedent maps. Tony, was that moderate or strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Tony, was that moderate or strong? Moderate (-1.1C) by JMA standards. By the way 12/19/45 -1.0C nina, 9.2" of nearly a champagne 20:1 ratio snow at PHL would be another antecedent set of maps worth looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Moderate (-1.1C) by JMA standards. By the way 12/19/45 -1.0C nina, 9.2" of nearly a champagne 20:1 ratio snow at PHL would be another antecedent set of maps worth looking at. Nice Tony-- this increases sample sizes quite a bit. Something about that 12/19 date lol. BTW, not to make you do too much work, but do all of these "cold" ninas feature an extended period of thawing in January? I know 1967 and 1996 had that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Nice Tony-- this increases sample sizes quite a bit. Something about that 12/19 date lol. BTW, not to make you do too much work, but do all of these "cold" ninas feature an extended period of thawing in January? I know 1967 and 1996 had that. Alex, I can't look this up now, but just by our average temperatures durina ninas since 1949-50, I would say yes, looks like there is a warm month in there somewhere (relatively speaking) whether its Dec/Jan or Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I think your skepticism is warranted. the 12 euro ensemble mean has a much flatter look that would not threaten the east coast without some changes. beyond the 168 hr the mean looks cold and dry. Not to mention that other little MIller B EC promise that fell apart inside of 144 hours. That at least didn't make a whole lot of sense from the get go, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 that ...... non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) geometry ... was my best math ever well that and statistics Here I'd assumed you preferred Real Analysis better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 jesus guys enough with the football talk take it to the sports forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 You can cleary see the threat on many of the 18Z GFS 12/12/2010 Ensemble members. Seems like the op is one of the more flatter solutions shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 With the performance of these models, it seems that no credence can be given to them until we're within five days of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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