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Guest someguy

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I once took this awful non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) geometry class. I was a freshman at the time. It was an entirely proof based course and I was in a bit over my head. Invariably I'd receive my tests and assignments back with the note, "Correct, but inelegant". An elegant proof would have been both pithy and unique. My proofs, however, were clumsy and invariably took twice as many steps as the other student's. This was, basically, because I was stupid.

You're clearly not, but your writing can occasionally come across as a bit...complicated. Possibly to the point of requiring the reader invest operose effort in decoding your message. Perhaps even needlessly so.

Thank you.

I also took a non-Euclidean hyperbolic geometry course based on Poincare's half-plane. Fortunately, it was a summer course and as a result of the ineptitude of the seven of us in the class, the professor surrendered and we spent much of our time solving his self-made logic problems. As a result, I never had the privileged opportunity to hear that my thinking was "correct but inelegant." Something I think most of us could find valuable.

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yes they do

folks reading this thread neeed to knwo that this is real close to happening but we are NOT quite there yet

there could be a point soon where all or some of the operational Models turns very Bullish on a secs OR mecs event real soon

DT - Are you still issuing those conditions like you did last year (Alpha, Bravo, Omega, etc...)? If so, could you post what they mean or a link to it?

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Guest someguy

I once took this awful non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) geometry class. I was a freshman at the time. It was an entirely proof based course and I was in a bit over my head. Invariably I'd receive my tests and assignments back with the note, "Correct, but inelegant". An elegant proof would have been both pithy and unique. My proofs, however, were clumsy and invariably took twice as many steps as the other student's. This was, basically, because I was stupid.

You're clearly not, but your writing can occasionally come across as a bit...complicated. Possibly to the point of requiring the reader invest operose effort in decoding your message. Perhaps even needlessly so.

that ...... non-Euclidean (hyperbolic) geometry ... was my best math ever

well that and statistics

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Guest someguy

DT - Are you still issuing those conditions like you did last year (Alpha, Bravo, Omega, etc...)? If so, could you post what they mean or a link to it?

Yes and yes

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Once the big greenland block retrogrades toward W canada, watch out!!

You hit it on the head here bud, not enough can be said about the tremendous height pattern signal even on the suppressed GFS. It's ensemble mean's are a little more robust with the potential threat, but the block retrograding into Central and W Canada is the real beast in this pattern. What an awesome signal. Also, check out the link below it as well to see how much the entire flow amplifies 12 hours later, a testament to the potential here.

f156.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f168.gif

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The question's gonna be whether or not the system will be able to dig that far south (developing over the northern Gulf/Gulf Coast).

Yea, my doubt is really about the strength of the southern impulse, whether it will dig as far as the ECM shows with the massive GoA low or slide out to sea more like the GFS. A bit skeptical of this type of storm in a strong La Niña although I supposed stranger things have happened...we do have an historic block in town.

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Yea, my doubt is really about the strength of the southern impulse, whether it will dig as far as the ECM shows with the massive GoA low or slide out to sea more like the GFS. A bit skeptical of this type of storm in a strong La Niña although I supposed stranger things have happened...we do have an historic block in town.

a bit of skepticism is healthy in this situation, esp at this point, but model consistency over the next couple days would alleviate that for me at least

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Yea, my doubt is really about the strength of the southern impulse, whether it will dig as far as the ECM shows with the massive GoA low or slide out to sea more like the GFS. A bit skeptical of this type of storm in a strong La Niña although I supposed stranger things have happened...we do have an historic block in town.

Ditto, but it is the Euro and it isn't Day 10.

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Yea, my doubt is really about the strength of the southern impulse, whether it will dig as far as the ECM shows with the massive GoA low or slide out to sea more like the GFS. A bit skeptical of this type of storm in a strong La Niña although I supposed stranger things have happened...we do have an historic block in town.

Was this what happened in March 1956?  If not, we might have to extend our list of analogs to older la ninas ;)  You know which ones I mean lol.

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Yea, my doubt is really about the strength of the southern impulse, whether it will dig as far as the ECM shows with the massive GoA low or slide out to sea more like the GFS. A bit skeptical of this type of storm in a strong La Niña although I supposed stranger things have happened...we do have an historic block in town.

I think your skepticism is warranted. the 12 euro ensemble mean has a much flatter look that would not threaten the east coast without some changes. beyond the 168 hr the mean looks cold and dry.

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1916-17 would be awesome, especially if next year was 1917-18.  Could you imagine if it was -13 for the ball drop at Times Square?

Those were some unreal times lol-- I wonder what that would translate to with UHI?  I noticed we havent gotten lower than -2 since the 40s.

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Moderate (-1.1C)  by JMA standards. By the way 12/19/45 -1.0C nina, 9.2" of nearly a champagne 20:1 ratio snow at PHL would be another antecedent set of maps worth looking at.

Nice Tony-- this increases sample sizes quite a bit.  Something about that 12/19 date lol.  BTW, not to make you do too much work, but do all of these "cold" ninas feature an extended period of thawing in January?  I know 1967 and 1996 had that.

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Nice Tony-- this increases sample sizes quite a bit. Something about that 12/19 date lol. BTW, not to make you do too much work, but do all of these "cold" ninas feature an extended period of thawing in January? I know 1967 and 1996 had that.

Alex,

I can't look this up now, but just by our average temperatures durina ninas since 1949-50, I would say yes, looks like there is a warm month in there somewhere (relatively speaking) whether its Dec/Jan or Feb.

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I think your skepticism is warranted. the 12 euro ensemble mean has a much flatter look that would not threaten the east coast without some changes. beyond the 168 hr the mean looks cold and dry.

Not to mention that other little MIller B EC promise that fell apart inside of 144 hours. That at least didn't make a whole lot of sense from the get go, though.

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