Ian Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 how depressing will an uber cold but snowless december be on the EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 how depressing will an uber cold but snowless december be on the EC? 1955, but that month didn't really have rain, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 OSU I dont wnat to get into this debate between you and greg too much ... and I know EMC says the bias is gone but its performance wasnt great with the current GL low something is still wrong with GFS past say 84 hrs.... the 12z wed run dec 8 run at 96 hrs valid for dec 12 had the Low over western / central NC the 00 and 12z thursday dec 9 runs .... the GFS had the Low in nw OHIO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 1955, but that month didn't really have rain, either. it's problematic to me that we are seeing nice blocking coinciding with this 500 low over the northeast. i dunno if that continues but i like persistence forecasting myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The GFS says what storm ! It completely has the cold so overpowering that it shears everything apart... in other news water is wet the sky is blue and women have secrets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 in other news water is wet the sky is blue and women have secrets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The GFS was just as good as the ECMWF in the tropical season...when the new upgrade was running. Or do you just pay attention to winter weather? this is not the "first test" what do you think about tkaing out the 6z and 18z run and using the computing power to run the GFS hat high resolution all the way through to 384 hrs? Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 OSU I dont wnat to get into this debate with greg too much ... and I know EMC says the bias is gone but its performance wasnt great with the current GL low something is still wrong woith GFS the 12z wed run dec 8 run at 96 hrs valid for dec 12 had the Low over western / central NC the 00 and 12z thursday dec 9 runs .... the GFS had the Low in nw OHIO It just bothers me that a model can be off by several hundred miles or more in a 4 day range. That truly is pathetic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 what do you think about tkaing out the 6z and 18z run and using the computing power to run the GFS hat high resolution all the way through to 384 hrs? Just curious Im not OSU, but I would have mixed feelings about it. Part of me says yes, go for it. The other part of me says no, because nobody really uses anything beyond hour 180 for a public, day-to-day forecast anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Ugh, the 0Z GGEM, I mean the 0Z perfect prog of the God's, doesn't look like it's gonn'a be as generous as it was a mere 12hr ago. Looks like it's gonna shear our fantasy out into the sea. A friggin' conveyor belt of death to our north...Then again, what do I know? Way too much (awful) Catoctin Creek Rrganic Roundstone Rye Whisky for me tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 well I may stay up for the 0z euro got work on new stuff anyways time a for giant mug of Tea and WAWA chocolate chip Muffin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 well I may stay up for the 0z euro got work on new stuff anyways time a for giant mug of Tea and WAWA chocolate chip Muffin Where did you get a wawa muffin down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 well I may stay up for the 0z euro got work on new stuff anyways time a for giant mug of Tea and WAWA chocolate chip Muffin I just have this awful feeling in my gut that the euro was just teasing us. Also I didnt see the upper level maps leading up to the event on the EURO, but what is the major difference between its depiction and the GFS's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Why do people keep saying 10 day threat? its day 8-9 which is a lot different than 10 IMO esp with model verification falling of greatly as time goes on (obviously) It's all the same crapshoot if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 It's all the same crapshoot if you ask me. true but why can't we all just state facts and not exaggerate to prove a point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 well I may stay up for the 0z euro got work on new stuff anyways time a for giant mug of Tea and WAWA chocolate chip Muffin why would you stay up for a model run that shows a storm 9 days away. get some sleep dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 true but why can't we all just state facts and not exaggerate to prove a point? I'm not sure if you were directing that at Wes or not, but he is far from the exaggerating type. day 8, 9 , 10...there really isnt a difference if you ask me. Day 8 is just a couple days closer to becoming a legitimate threat then day 10. I'm not saying day 8-10 model forecasts are useless by any means by the way, but storm threats can appear and vanish very easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I'm not sure if you were directing that at Wes or not, but he is far from the exaggerating type. day 8, 9 , 10...there really isnt a difference if you ask me. Day 8 is just a couple days closer to becoming a legitimate threat then day 10. I'm not saying day 8-10 model forecasts are useless by any means by the way, but storm threats can appear and vanish very easily No not as wes him saying that was what caused me to say it but it is other posters who choose to exaggerate as opposed to stating facts. 8-10 day might be similar but if its not a day 10 threat then why say that....thats all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 No not as wes him saying that was what caused me to say it but it is other posters who choose to exaggerate as opposed to stating facts. 8-10 day might be similar but if its not a day 10 threat then why say that....thats all I'm saying. Oh ok. Wasn't sure for a second and Wes is as straight forward as they come. Anyhow, I think the euro has at least gotten our attention for that timeframe, regardless if it holds serve or not on tonights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 what do you think about tkaing out the 6z and 18z run and using the computing power to run the GFS hat high resolution all the way through to 384 hrs? Just curious Actually, why don't they just give in and initialize the GFS the same way they do the EC? Doesn't that account for a lot of the issues we see between 96 and 132hrs? It sure seems like it'd be a likely culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Actually, why don't they just give in and initialize the GFS the same way they do the EC? Doesn't that account for a lot of the issues we see between 96 and 132hrs? It sure seems like it'd be a likely culprit. I thought the europeans wont even allow the opportunity to do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Actually, why don't they just give in and initialize the GFS the same way they do the EC? Doesn't that account for a lot of the issues we see between 96 and 132hrs? It sure seems like it'd be a likely culprit. I remember seeing a thread on eastern that showed that the GFS performed just as well as the Euro when it was initialized with the Euro's initialization data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I remember seeing a thread on eastern that showed that the GFS performed just as well as the Euro when it was initialized with the Euro's initialization data. That might have been my thread. It was just a case study, though, and for a multi week period in the summer of 2007 I think. There's a journal article on it if you search for it. Intriguing nonetheless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I thought the europeans wont even allow the opportunity to do that? We could just develop our own. After all kill the 6Z and 18Z runs and we'll have the compute time to do the initialization properly, as they do. They basically spend almost as much time on point in time initialization/interpolation as they do on running the actual model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 How about better data assimilation in the data sparse regions that are often where our shortwaves originate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 0Z SUNDAY EURO to 168 hr has phasing between the PJ and STJ... a 500 Low forms over VA MD PA the tilt is negative and NO surface development occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 yea it waits til 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 yea it waits til 240 It seems like there is two potential threats on the table. With what DT described there it sounds like the surface reflection should not be out to sea at 168 hrs but rather closer to the coast.. Of course if i am wrong I know he will correct me but it seems to be pretty much still on the table and then the other is a different system at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 yea it waits til 240 YEAH IT DOES.... but it is stil there sometime around dec 21-22-23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 YEAH IT DOES.... but it is stil there sometime around dec 21-22-23 DT you sound enthused about this pattern setting up. I dont blame you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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