Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 DT in the house! It's just like old times now. When this thread was started w/ the WOOF, I thought someone is stealing DT's line. Then I noticed it was created by someguy and I knew it was DT from the chat room during radio shows. Chris, one of us has to change our avatar. I'm always in the southeast sub forum and didn't realize we had the same one. Since this is obviously DT, why does he not have a red tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Wow, great last post DT. It's astonishing how well the EURO actually did with the upcoming event, all the way from 1 week out--the map from one week ago is essentially identical to today's map. While it was bad for us in this case, hopefully with the upcoming threat it will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Wow, great last post DT. It's astonishing how well the EURO actually did with the upcoming event, all the way from 1 week out--the map from one week ago is essentially identical to today's map. While it was bad for us in this case, hopefully with the upcoming threat it will work out. doubt it....Dr. No hates us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Since this is obviously DT, why does he not have a red tag? He does now...Staff must of seen your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 doubt it....Dr. No hates us Exactly nails the GLC's from 120 out...gives us a heart attack with coastals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I am NOT trying to bust anyone 's chops here.... instead of sort of remembering what this model or that Model said about this current Midwest GL Low lets take a look ECMWF SINCE SUNDAY DEC 5 please all comments are evaluations are welcomed Thanks for posting. I guess it did better than I remembered. Look forward to your thoughts on the upcoming possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 this is inacurate assesment of the MOST of the european runs showed this CURREnt event if you go back and look at previous runs while a few runs of the euro didf have a more western track ....Once we got within 7 days the euro and euro esnemble showed a track ofthe low Through ILL inot eastern GL and western NY state it was far and away far more accurate than any other global Model That's true but in general, it had its ensemble support, much more than this run. That's not to say this run couldn't be right but it has to have the same evolution which is hard to buy from a day 10 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 That's true but in general, it had its ensemble support, much more than this run. That's not to say this run couldn't be right but it has to have the same evolution which is hard to buy from a day 10 forecast. Why do people keep saying 10 day threat? its day 8-9 which is a lot different than 10 IMO esp with model verification falling of greatly as time goes on (obviously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 That's true but in general, it had its ensemble support, much more than this run. That's not to say this run couldn't be right but it has to have the same evolution which is hard to buy from a day 10 forecast. I think NCEP should be getting embarrassed by now, seriously! They upgrade the GFS, say it has no more cold bias (and in turn shouldn't be more S & E with storms). We have our FIRST legitimate chance with it, and it misses by many hundreds of miles from only 96 hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Why do people keep saying 10 day threat? its day 8-9 which is a lot different than 10 IMO esp with model verification falling of greatly as time goes on (obviously) Once you get beyond day 7, it's not too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Once you get beyond day 7, it's not too good. No i completely agree...but this isn't day 10 just as much as it isn't day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I think NCEP should be getting embarrassed by now, seriously! They upgrade the GFS, say it has no more cold bias (and in turn shouldn't be more S & E with storms). We have our FIRST legitimate chance with it, and it misses by many hundreds of miles from only 96 hours out! why do you keep saying it like that? Like they are lying? The statistics are right there on the website, compiled daily. No one from NCEP specifically said the SE bias was caused by the cold bias...it's one of the possible reasons that mets have offered. Another one that was suggested was a progressive bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Why do people keep saying 10 day threat? its day 8-9 which is a lot different than 10 IMO esp with model verification falling of greatly as time goes on (obviously) Not that much different, the bottom line is that the ecmwf ensembles don't support it that much, neither does the gfs. Could it happen yes but any forecast beyond day 4 or 5 is usually a fantasy especially when the models are all over the place with solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 why do you keep saying it like that? Like they are lying? The statistics are right there on the website, compiled daily. No one from NCEP specifically said the SE bias was caused by the cold bias...it's one of the possible reasons that mets have offered. Another one that was suggested was a progressive bias. I'm not saying that they're lying! I'm saying that the product they put out is absolutely pathetic! And the cold bias is still there! I Don't really care what a hemispheric chart says, because that involves the entire hemisphere... look at this week! From about a week out, it's going to bust by 9-12 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Not that much different, the bottom line is that the ecmwf ensembles don't support it that much, neither does the gfs. Could it happen yes but any forecast beyond day 4 or 5 is usually a fantasy especially when the models are all over the place with solutions. i think everybody understands that but it is a weather board snd people are going to talk about how it MAY snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Not that much different, the bottom line is that the ecmwf ensembles don't support it that much, neither does the gfs. Could it happen yes but any forecast beyond day 4 or 5 is usually a fantasy especially when the models are all over the place with solutions. Didn't mean to give off the impression I'm expecting this to happen. I'm not. But I believe an 8-9 day threat (even without much ensemble support) is different than a day 10 threat, esp with the GFS. Lately the EURO has had some fantasy 240hr threats too. And yes 4-5 days definitely rings some alarms so if we see it then we should/can get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I'm not saying that they're lying! I'm saying that the product they put out is absolutely pathetic! And the cold bias is still there! I Don't really care what a hemispheric chart says, because that involves the entire hemisphere... look at this week! From about a week out, it's going to bust by 9-12 degrees! So because the model busts for one storm it's awful? 850mb temperature error hemispherically averages 4C at day 8....so that's not really surprising. The ECMWF is better no doubt, but the GFS isn't as bad as many like to harp on in this forum. The ECWMF gets a ton of private money and they have significantly more computing power than NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 So because the model busts for one storm it's awful? 850mb temperature error hemispherically averages 4C at day 8....so that's not really surprising. The ECMWF is better no doubt, but the GFS isn't as bad as many like to harp on in this forum. The ECWMF gets a ton of private money and they have significantly more computing power than NCEP. All I know is, if I worked at NCEP, I wouldn't want anyone to know that with what is happening right now, understand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Didn't mean to give off the impression I'm expecting this to happen. I'm not. But I believe an 8-9 day threat (even without much ensemble support) is different than a day 10 threat, esp with the GFS. Lately the EURO has had some fantasy 240hr threats too. And yes 4-5 days definitely rings some alarms so if we see it then we should/can get excited The one thing it might have going for it is the 114 hour gfs does hint at some southern stream energy, pretty much the first time in quite awhile. We'll have to see what it does and how it interacts with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 All I know is, if I worked at NCEP, I wouldn't want anyone to know that with what is happening right now, understand? lol okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 lol okay. You always want to make a good impression, right? Let's say next year you got hired to be the coach of the TN Titans. And you promised your coaching method was very different, and you could turn the whole thing around. Meanwhile, you went out and lost 41-0 in the first game. That's what I mean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 You always want to make a good impression, right? Let's say next year you got hired to be the coach of the TN Titans. And you promised your coaching method was very different, and you could turn the whole thing around. Meanwhile, you went out and lost 41-0 in the first game. That's what I mean! The GFS was just as good as the ECMWF in the tropical season...when the new upgrade was running. Or do you just pay attention to winter weather? this is not the "first test" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The GFS was just as good as the ECMWF in the tropical season...when the new upgrade was running. Or do you just pay attention to winter weather? this is not the "first test" There weren't very many threats to the US this season that i cared to pay attention to. Plus, tropical systems and winter storms are two different beasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 when DT woofs, I listen. When most METS talk, I see a whole lot of "loaded" forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 There weren't very many threats to the US this season that i cared to pay attention to. Plus, tropical systems and winter storms are two different beasts. sure they are...but it doesn't seem prudent or fair to bash NCEP about one storm....when they are clearly not on an equal playing field due to funding etc. By the stats, Environment Canada and the Navy deserve even more crap I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 sure they are...but it doesn't seem prudent or fair to bash NCEP about one storm....when they are clearly not on an equal playing field due to funding etc. By the stats, Environment Canada and the Navy deserve even more crap I guess. The GGEM was better than the GFS for this storm. The navy? I agree, but I hardly pay attn to them because there really isn't any point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The GGEM was better than the GFS for this storm. The navy? I agree, but I hardly pay attn to them because there really isn't any point! so what? It's one storm...a broken clock is right twice a day, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The GFS says what storm ! It completely has the cold so overpowering that it shears everything apart... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The GFS says what storm ! It completely has the cold so overpowering that it shears everything apart... It's doing it again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 so what? It's one storm...a broken clock is right twice a day, too. For the record, I don't like the GGEM, I was just pointing something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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