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Guest someguy

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Guest someguy

Lets not get TOO excited til we see this on several consecutive runs. This is the first EC run showing it.

UM not quite

the 0z saturday euro had the same big low but 150 miles to the east...

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Agreed. I am just commenting on the pictures. The EC did nail tomorrows storm though. And it sat all alone for some time. Not saying it will verify again. Just like the look of its forecast pattern much better.

I'm not sure I'm with you on that EC comment. Didn't it have the low developing in the southern plains and then heading for the lakes? That's not what happened. It doesn't seem any of the models handled this one too well. It doesn't even seem they are modeling it correctly now. There seems to be very little precip falling in the cold air. I'll bet the people in Chicago aren't getting what they thought they would. Having said that, I feel better when the EC shows a storm for us.

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I'm not sure I'm with you on that EC comment. Didn't it have the low developing in the southern plains and then heading for the lakes? That's not what happened. It doesn't seem any of the models handled this one too well. It doesn't even seem they are modeling it correctly now. There seems to be very little precip falling in the cold air. I'll bet the people in Chicago aren't getting what they thought they would. Having said that, I feel better when the EC shows a storm for us.

Ok. Maybe nailed was a poor choice of words. It did however stick to its guns about a Western track when most other models wanted to send the storm up the coast.

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Ok. Maybe nailed was a poor choice of words. It did however stick to its guns about a Western track when most other models wanted to send the storm up the coast.

Yes it did. And the other models were horrible. I don't remember any solution that resembles what's actually taking place. But, I do feel good about the EC showing a storm for the MA. I hope we can squeeze out a little something in about 5 days or so also.

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Guest someguy

I'm not sure I'm with you on that EC comment. Didn't it have the low developing in the southern plains and then heading for the lakes? That's not what happened. It doesn't seem any of the models handled this one too well. It doesn't even seem they are modeling it correctly now. There seems to be very little precip falling in the cold air. I'll bet the people in Chicago aren't getting what they thought they would. Having said that, I feel better when the EC shows a storm for us.

this is inacurate assesment of the MOST of the european runs showed this CURREnt event

if you go back and look at previous runs while a few runs of the euro didf have a more western track ....Once we got within 7 days the euro and euro esnemble showed a track ofthe low Through ILL inot eastern GL and western NY state

it was far and away far more accurate than any other global Model

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Guest someguy

I'll just remind everyone that a few days ago, 1 run of the EC showed a secondary wave moving up the cold front just behind tomorrow's system which brought snow to a lot of people :whistle:

thats correct

1 run ... whcih came aftet several rusn before and after that 1 funny run which were all pretty close

and the euro ensemble did a great job

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this is inacurate assesment of the MOST of the european runs showed this CURREnt event

if you go back and look at previous runs while a few runs of the euro didf have a more western track ....Once we got within 7 days the euro and euro esnemble showed a track ofthe low Through ILL inot eastern GL and western NY state

it was far and away far more accurate than any other global Model

DT?!

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this is inacurate assesment of the MOST of the european runs showed this CURREnt event

if you go back and look at previous runs while a few runs of the euro didf have a more western track ....Once we got within 7 days the euro and euro esnemble showed a track ofthe low Through ILL inot eastern GL and western NY state

it was far and away far more accurate than any other global Model

I can't go back and look at those runs. I guess there is some way to do it, but I don't know how or where. Anyway, I won't dispute what you say. I just don't remember any run of any model forming this storm as far north as it did.

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lol about roger smiths analysis of the 19-21 event and energy maxima or w/e it is. I think it is obvious were not getting a lakes cutter during this period unless some MAJOR changes occur. So he may actually have a point wrt to his "crappy" analysis, but I wouldn't go that far because I have seen some very informative roger smith posts in the past.

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lol about roger smiths analysis of the 19-21 event and energy maxima or w/e it is. I think it is obvious were not getting a lakes cutter during this period unless some MAJOR changes occur. So he may actually have a point wrt to his "crappy" analysis, but I wouldn't go that far because I have seen some very informative roger smith posts in the past.

Yeah, but that post is craptastic!

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Guest someguy

I am NOT trying to bust anyone 's chops here....

instead of sort of remembering what this model or that Model said about this current Midwest GL Low lets take a look

ECMWF SINCE SUNDAY DEC 5

please all comments are evaluations are welcomed

post-1837-0-78108100-1292124830.jpg

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