Guest someguy Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 2in + liquid for NYC which is presumably all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Lets not get TOO excited til we see this on several consecutive runs. This is the first EC run showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Lets not get TOO excited til we see this on several consecutive runs. This is the first EC run showing it. agreed. It does come in a favorable period though so we have that on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGQ Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 whats the time period for this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 whats the time period for this?? Day 8-9... next Sunday-Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Lets not get TOO excited til we see this on several consecutive runs. This is the first EC run showing it. 0z did foreshadow the 12 run as it too developed a E US 500mb closed low capturing the low. It looks like the redevelopment of a PV in S C Canada phases with the s/w troughing and brings the storm on up. Any early analogues? I'm thinking a storm from last Feb, but I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Well we do have one thing in our favor.....Dr. No is showing a 'yes' scenario. Dr. no playing role of optimist is always a good start any day of the week! GFS is flat and well South and East. We got 'em right where we want them at this point! Interesting date (Dec 19).....I think the MA saw a rather large storm on the same date one year ago ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wes kills another weenie fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Day 8-9... next Sunday-Monday. I'm sure little will change in the next 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wes kills another weenie fantasy. Who knows, the euro may be right but the ensembles from both models suggest it a deal where everything has to evolve pretty much as forecast by a 240 euro to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 The only reply needed is the ensemble mean which suggests that the euro is an outlier, still a possible solution but a long shot at best. Look at how different the surface looks. An ensemble mean will often spread things out and be too flat because of the averaging but such a difference, says wait a minute. yelp The euro has been awful this fall and winter at 240 hours often over-amplifying systems. Hey wes I think that is old ...192 would be Sunday.. I think this is the current one which is not as flat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hey wes I think that is old ...192 would be Sunday.. I think this is the current one which is not as flat... Oops, I checked out the 00hr forecast and it was in and assumed the rest of the run was in as well.. still the surface is pretty sheared out. and nothing like the operational. To be fair, there is enough spacing for more of a low along the coast so it is a little more supportive than the earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 now thats a BIG DOG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wow.... that is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Lets not get TOO excited til we see this on several consecutive runs. This is the first EC run showing it. I'd say last nights Euro had it as well, just suppressed off the Carolinas. Also the Euro Ensembles have had the signal as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 In case anyone cares the JMA at 192 hours has a big storm in Georgia and looks to bring it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 In case anyone cares the JMA at 192 hours has a big storm in Georgia and looks to bring it up the coast. Looks like shades of last year, eh Bob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Looks like shades of last year, eh Bob? Ah, what memories Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 There are 5 important factors in storms Low Level Jet Low Level Jet Low Level Jet Temps from the surface to 600mb Dryslots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Lets not get TOO excited til we see this on several consecutive runs. This is the first EC run showing it. i agree, still a long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 doesnt have quite the same ring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 12 z euro at 192 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Clearly a much better setup than the storm for tomorrow ever was. Nice west based block. SW coming from a southern trajectory. Classic Secs/Mecs look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Wow.... that is a beast. Huge hit for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Clearly a much better setup than the storm for tomorrow ever was. Nice west based block. SW coming from a southern trajectory. Classic Secs/Mecs look. IF the ECMWF is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 IF the ECMWF is right you can feel it a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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