Medium Range Discussion Winter 2011-12

[Bob Chill]

Thanks Don. Makes complete sense.

[icebreaker5221]

Bob,

Three quick things:

1. ENSO, the teleconnections (AO, PNA, NAO, EPO), MJO, etc. all have an impact in shaping the pattern. Sometimes one or a few have a disproportionate influence. December 2011 was a case in point where the extreme AO+ regime overwhelmed all the other factors.

2. Persistence in one of the factors can sometimes compensate for a lack of magnitude. For example, the MJO remained locked in Phases 4-6 through much of December and January and part of February, often in the so-called "circle of death." The earlie AO+ regime also amplified the warmth. As a result, the outcome has been a warm one in the East despite the PNA+/AO- period setup that existed from late January into mid-February.

3. There can be a lag before a factor exerts influence. The MJO had raced through Phases 8 and 1 in late February. The atmosphere did not yet have time to respond. In the meantime, the AO rose to > +2. As a result, the outcome was a warm one in the East during the PNA+/AO- period setup that existed from late January into mid-February and has remained, to date, generally warm despite the more favorable MJO phases.

Anyway, those are some thoughts as to what might have occurred.

All very good points Don.

I'd also like to add that a common mistake is to assume that the mean state of all -AO is representative of what to expect in any given -AO. Perhaps we have all been spoiled by the last 2 years. Here is the mean -AO 500 mb heights composite for DJF:

However, there is significant variance in the 500 mb patterns that represent the composite of all -AOs!

During the -AO period that we just experienced, it is clear that there are + 500 mb height anomalies near the pole and neg. height anomalies at the mid-latitudes, characteristic of -AO. However, at the very least, significant wavenumber 1 and 3 asymmetries are quite evident.

A shift of the polar ridging towards Eurasia and a general translation displacement of the -AO pattern is characteristic of a wavenumber 1 displacement. Also, while the mean state of the -AO tends to be associated with a "ring" of neg. height anomalies at the mid-latitudes, this very rarely (if ever) occurs in practice. Instead, blocking develops at certain favored regions of the NH, varying from year to year, and persistent ridging keeps some regions of the mid-latitudes very cold while others remain fairly mild. A classic wavenumber-3 asymmetry is seen in the neg. height anomaly pattern, with local minima over Alaska, S Europe / N Africa, and E Asia. It just so happens that both wavnumber 1 and 3 asymmetries aligned themselves such that most of N. America remained anomalously warm for a -AO regime this year.

[HM]

Good points. March is quite a bit different than NDJF in terms of sensible wx response to the MJO in the CONUS. Phase 4-5 are coolish but certainly far from torch in the Northeast. But the problem is the MJO seems to be one its own, at least for now, in terms of favorable teleconnectors. Phase 2-3 right now should be a colder one across the Eastern US, but in fact its warmer than normal due to the low height field across the nern latitudes once again. As long as we have a positive AO and NAO persisting into mid March, I don't have much hope for significant snow in I-95. I think the interior of the Northeast may be in for quite a ride though over the coming month.

Euro ensembles indicate phase 5/6 by March 15-20th. If the MJO wave continues strong, and if we can get the AO/NAO to change, the end of March or early April might offer something when MJO circulates into more conducive phases again. A lot of IFs there though.

The MJO is not propagating all too well right now. The tanking AAM / GWO is allowing the z-circulations to loosen their grip, allowing the "default" 2011-12 pattern to return again (+AO/Alaskan Vortex). My initial post was to suggest the potential for a cyclonic wave breaker but certain things have to come together.

1. We need to prolong the GWO / MJO orbits as long as possible into 4-6. An orbit through these phases mid to late March can actually bring a 5 to 7 day stretch of cold and a potential late-season winter storm for the Northeast / Interior Mid Atlantic.

2. We need a healthy low anomaly to develop across the Central Plains in early to mid March from a significiant low that alters the state of the North Atlantic temporarily in tandem with the GWO/MJO.

3. The shorter than normal wavelengths need to continue.

I'd say this threat is slowly increasing every day that passes and the MJO/GWO stall and/or go the other way.

[HM]

The potential in this setup has a wide range of solutions. It could manifest as ugly as 1956 or it could manifest like late March of 1953. All of the years, at some point, developed a sharp low anomaly across the Mid Atlantic / Southeast etc. during the second half of March. I have absolutely no idea which way this will go down yet.

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

From Message #1186:

For several model cycles, there has been a growing signal for a period of excessive warmth in the Ohio Valley and East Coast for the February 22-24, 2012 timeframe. Temperatures of 70° or above could be recorded in Virginia and southward and possibly as far north as Washington, DC. A few isolated 80° readings cannot be ruled out. At least one reading 60° or above could be registered from Washington, DC northward to New York City and perhaps portions of southern New England (Connecticut and maybe Rhode Island). Top readings in the middle 50s and above are possible in the Ohio Valley.

Highest temperatures for the 2/22-24/2012 timeframe were:

Allentown: 59°

Atlantic City: 64°

Baltimore: 65°

Boston: 57°

Charleston, WV: 61°

Charleston, SC: 81°

Charlotte: 76°

Columbus: 58°

Harrisburg: 59°

Hartford: 57°

Lexington, KY: 69°

New York City: 58°

Newark: 60°

Norfolk: 82°

Philadelphia: 62°

Pittsburgh: 54°

Portland, ME: 51°

Providence: 58°

Raleigh: 78°

Richmond: 81°

Roanoke: 74°

Salisbury: 77°

Savannah: 86° (86° reading on 2/24 tied the all-time monthly record high)

Washington, DC:

...DCA: 67°

...IAD: 66°

Wilmington, DE: 63°

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

From Message #999 in this thread:

...much of North America will likely be milder than normal during the February 16-22 timeframe.

Composite temperature anomalies based on ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of -1.55°C to -0.70°C, an AO of +0.50 to +1.00, and PNA of 0.00 to +1.00 are below:

In North America, I suspect that readings in Alaska will be near normal to perhaps somewhat below normal. The one change I would make with respect to the chart for Europe is that the cold in Europe would extend eastward from where it is centered, meaning that the eastern sections showing warm anomalies would be cold, as well. The rest of the composite temperature anomalies for North America and Europe appear reasonable.

In sum, any cold in eastern North America will likely remain transient. A cold pattern probably won't lock in.

The anomalies for the February 16-22, 2012 timeframe were:

Much of what was shown proved reasonably accurate, including the idea that sections of Eastern Europe would be colder than normal not warmer than normal. Exceptions included:

- Alaska: Warmer than normal (my adjustment to near normal/somewhat below normal was not warm enough)

- Much of the area shown with near normal readings in the West proved to be colder than normal

[donsutherland1]

The abnormally warm winter of 2011-2012 appears ready to close with another round of unseasonable warmth in the eastern U.S., particularly the Mid-Atlantic region.

The 2/24/2012 0z GFS ensemble forecast 500 mb pattern for 2/28 and 2/29 closely resembles some very warm late-February/early-March 500 mb patterns:

Already, the MOS is picking up on the possible unseasonable warmth, even as the warm readings could coincide with at least some rainfall. According to the MOS, the warmest readings for the February 27-29, 2012 period for select cities follows:

Allentown: 54°

Baltimore: 64°

Boston: 47°

Charleston, SC: 76°

Columbia: 76°

Harrisburg: 59°

New York City: 55°

Norfolk: 70°

Philadelphia: 58°

Raleigh: 72°

Richmond: 71°

Savannah: 77°

Salisbury: 65°

Washington, DC:

...DCA: 67°

...IAD: 66°

In the end, readings should reach the 70s as far north as Virginia during one or more days during the February 27-29, 2012 period, and a 70° reading is possible in the Washington, DC area. At least one temperature of 60° or above is likely from Washington, DC to Philadelphia and possibly as far north as New York City. One or more temperatures of 50° or above are likely across southern New England, possibly including Boston.

NOTE: The dates were corrected. The above ensemble images were for 2/28 0z and 2/29 0z. I accidentally used a timeframe based on 12z not 0z. The timeframe should be 2/27-29 not 2/28-3/1.

[donsutherland1]

Today, the AO was +1.069. That is the 5th consecutive day on which the AO has been +1 or higher. If the ensemble guidance is right, the AO could dip below +1 for a time. However, a strong rebound above +1 appears likely down the road.

Such an outcome could tend to help the warmer than normal readings persist in parts of North America that have been warm for much of the winter. At this point in time, I'm increasingly confident that cities such as Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Toronto, and Washington, DC have seen their coldest readings of Winter 2011-12. Washington, DC will have its third consecutive winter without a single-digit low. Both New York City and Philadelphia will have gone without a single-digit reading this winter.

In addition, New York City's coldest temperature this February has been 20°, which was registered on February 12. If, as is highly likely, the minimum temperature does not below fall below 20°, February 2012 will be only the second February on record that NYC does not see at least one reading below 20°. The only other case was February 1927 with a monthly minimum temperature of 22° on February 5.

That outcome could also lead to a dramatic change in Europe. Areas that had been experiencing prolonged cold could see above normal temperatures return toward the end of the first week of March/start of the second week in March (Eastern Europe). Western Europe could experience above normal temperatures even earlier.

[winterymix]

...

Washington, DC will have its third consecutive winter without a single-digit low. Both New York City and Philadelphia will have gone without a single-digit reading this winter...

...In addition, New York City's coldest temperature this February has been 20°, which was registered on February 12. If, as is highly likely, the minimum temperature does not below fall below 20°, February 2012 will be only the second February on record that NYC does not see at least one reading below 20°. The only other case was February 1927 with a monthly minimum temperature of 22° on February 5...

Don, another indication of the mild winter season is the widespread absence of frozen bodies of water.

Here, in northern Maryland, we really have not have a sufficient duration of chilly weather to freeze even

modest ponds.

In contrast, on rare historic occasions of deep and sustained polar and arctic outbreaks, the Chesapeake Bay has had significant icing. On very rate occasions, ice-cutting ships were used to clear a navigation lane in the Chesapeake Bay.

Water temperatures for the Bay are about 43 to 44 degrees F. and this, in my mind, is a weighted average of the sustained

winter of mild temperatures.

Upper Bay temperatures can be found here:

http://tidesandcurre.../cnscreen.shtml

lower Bay here:

http://tidesandcurre.../csscreen.shtml

Additional select coast water temperatures can be found here:

http://www.nodc.noaa.../cwtg/satl.html

A cursory conclusion suggests that expected March values are occurring in February. Further down the East coast, expected April water temperatures are occurring in February.

On a side note, February here in the MA is featuring below average precipitation for the month and for year-to-date.

[uncle W]

Today, the AO was +1.069. That is the 5th consecutive day on which the AO has been +1 or higher. If the ensemble guidance is right, the AO could dip below +1 for a time. However, a strong rebound above +1 appears likely down the road.

In addition, New York City's coldest temperature this February has been 20°, which was registered on February 12. If, as is highly likely, the minimum temperature does not below fall below 20°, February 2012 will be only the second February on record that NYC does not see at least one reading below 20°. The only other case was February 1927 with a monthly minimum temperature of 22° on February 5.

here are the years with the highest February minimum for NYC and the minimum after February...

February...March or April...long term average for February is 9...since 1980 it's 13...March long term average is 17 and 18 since 1980...

22 in 1927...18

19 in 1897...19

19 in 1964...22

19 in 1982...21

19 in 2000...22

19 in 2002...19

18 in 1986...15

18 in 1960...14

18 in 1957...24

18 in 1932...15

1957 had the highest March minimum after February's high minimum...I think we will get at least as cold as 1957...maybe 2002...

[Chinook]

Today, the AO was +1.069.

I just recently looked at the SOI daily values and the SST anomalies in the Pacific. Wow. The pattern in the USA is finally looking like a La Nina and the SST anomalies look like they are neutral and almost ready to bust out an El Nino. Weird.

[Isotherm]

I just recently looked at the SOI daily values and the SST anomalies in the Pacific. Wow. The pattern in the USA is finally looking like a La Nina and the SST anomalies look like they are neutral and almost ready to bust out an El Nino. Weird.

I think it has much to do with the changing state of tropical forcing from Nov-Jan. We had a perfect storm of variables in favor of blowtorching North America in NDJ - strong AK vortex, positive AO, NAO (overall low heights around the arctic - the opposite of what we want to see in the mid latitudes) and a MJO which was constantly propagating through phases 4-6 and into/out of the circle of death. In the coming weeks, Canada will become drastically colder than its been most of this winter so far, yet we still have a +AO, +NAO, and low heights over Alaska. This is probably (partially) because the more favorable MJO phases have allowed the northern hemisphere ridge/trough orientation to finally change. Furthermore, one can see on the D 8-10 guidance that the majority of the lower than normal heights in the northern hemisphere will be centered over North America, rather than where its been - in Asia and Europe. With that being said, the same warm pattern looks to continue in the East. The difference is we'll see more intense storm systems from the enhanced baroclinicity via a chilling Canada.

[Chinook]

I think it has much to do with the changing state of tropical forcing from Nov-Jan. We had a perfect storm of variables in favor of blowtorching North America in NDJ - strong AK vortex, positive AO, NAO (overall low heights around the arctic - the opposite of what we want to see in the mid latitudes) and a MJO which was constantly propagating through phases 4-6 and into/out of the circle of death. In the coming weeks, Canada will become drastically colder than its been most of this winter so far, yet we still have a +AO, +NAO, and low heights over Alaska. This is probably (partially) because the more favorable MJO phases have allowed the northern hemisphere ridge/trough orientation to finally change. Furthermore, one can see on the D 8-10 guidance that the majority of the lower than normal heights in the northern hemisphere will be centered over North America, rather than where its been - in Asia and Europe. With that being said, the same warm pattern looks to continue in the East. The difference is we'll see more intense storm systems from the enhanced baroclinicity via a chilling Canada.

I'm just saying-- now we finally get a cold NW and Northern Plains pattern, and the SST's look quite warm by Ecuador. La Nina is just about dead, but the atmosphere seems to be fitting the La Nina pattern ideas here near home.

The West is seeing some snowpack building up.

[Isotherm]

I'm just saying-- now we finally get a cold NW and Northern Plains pattern, and the SST's look quite warm by Ecuador. La Nina is just about dead, but the atmosphere seems to be fitting the La Nina pattern ideas here near home.

The West is seeing some snowpack building up.

While the SSTA have been warming recently (probably partially in response to the stronger MJO wave and weaker easterly trades) the atmosphere is still very much in a Nina like state, and seems to contradict the negative SOI signal as of late. Atmospheric angular momentum saw a spike in mid/late Jan, but it's been drifting negative again over recent weeks. This says to me that although the tropical pacific suggests a weakening Nina, the atmosphere wants to intensify/sustain the Nina regime. Current guidance looks pretty similar to a classic Nina pattern for North America/US into March w/ the cold West-North/warm East signalling.

[donsutherland1]

The upper air pattern is looking somewhat different from what was posted about in Message #1239. As a result, the warming potential is less than what it had appeared. Washington, DC and Virginia will probably see one or two days with high temperatures in the upper 50s and perhaps into the middle 60s during the 2/27-29 timeframe. Some of that area might actually be quite warm on March 1. Northward into southern New England, the warmest reading could be somewhere in the middle perhaps upper 50s (northern Mid-Atlantic) and lower 50s (southern New England).

The modeled storm for Wednesday may leverage some cold air damming resulting in a start as frozen precipitation even into the immediate New York City suburbs/NYC area. The chilly readings on Wednesday could prevent February 2012 from ranking as the warmest February on record in Central Park, even as readings rise late in the day and during the night into the 40s. Due to an absence of blocking, I suspect any period of frozen precipitation in NYC and its immediate suburbs will likely be brief. Farther north and west up the Hudson Valley and across northwestern New Jersey, a more prolonged frozen precipitation event could unfold with a period of snow, sleet, and, freezing rain.

A more prolonged snow event is possible in southern New England, with the potential for several inches of snow in the Boston area. Interior and central/northern New England/Upstate New York could pick up a moderate-to-significant snowfall.

[pazzo83]

here are the years with the highest February minimum for NYC and the minimum after February...

February...March or April...long term average for February is 9...since 1980 it's 13...March long term average is 17 and 18 since 1980...

22 in 1927...18

19 in 1897...19

19 in 1964...22

19 in 1982...21

19 in 2000...22

19 in 2002...19

18 in 1986...15

18 in 1960...14

18 in 1957...24

18 in 1932...15

1957 had the highest March minimum after February's high minimum...I think we will get at least as cold as 1957...maybe 2002...

I plotted the four most recent of those for March (1982, 1986, 2000, 2002) and this is what we have:

[donsutherland1]

Some quick morning thoughts:

1. With the PNA having gone negative, the cold has overspread the Pacific Northwest. Yesterday saw a trace of snow in the Seattle area. This morning's low temperature of 28° was the coldest minimum temperature since January 27 (also 28°).

2. The MJO has resumed its progression through Phase 2. However, the AO has risen to +1.831 and some ensemble guidance suggests that the AO could approach +3 sometime during the next 7-10 days. As a result, the current AO+ regime will likely overwhelm the MJO signal for at least the next 1-2 weeks, as far as North America is concerned.

3. The ENSO region 3.4 anomaly (week centered around February 22) has risen a little further to -0.4°C. However, with the SOI now registering its highest reading since February 7, the rise in the Region 3.4 anomaly could slow or even reverse a little for the time being.

4. The respite from the cold in parts of Europe could be short-lived. Ensemble guidance and analogs constructed around the forecast teleconnections suggest that colder weather could begin to return to Europe, perhaps later in the first week of March, possibly leading to a cold second week of March.

[donsutherland1]

March 8-15, 2012 Thoughts:

Given the forecast teleconnections, progression of the MJO, and weakening La Niña conditions, I suspect that the major stories for the March 8-15 timeframe will be:

1. Warmth in eastern North America, including southern Ontario and southern Quebec

2. Colder than normal temperatures return to a large part of Europe.

The below chart shows:

Top Left: The composite temperature anomalies for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of -1.1°C to -0.3°C, a PNA of -1.0 to 0.0, and an AO of +0.5 to +2.0 for North America.

Top Right: The composite temperature anomalies for Europe using the same ENSO-Teleconnections listed above.

Although the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has risen to -0.4°C, the SOI has risen to its highest level in 20 days. As a result, there could be stabilization and possibly some cooling of Region 3.4 by the time the March 8-15 timeframe arises.

The NAEFS approaching the March 8-15 timeframe show widespread warmth in North America.

I believe both composite charts offer a good idea of what to expect during the period in question. The only significant adjustments would be to include warmer than normal anomalies across the Central Plains States to the Great Lakes (the area shown with near normal and slightly below normal readings) and for Alaska to be colder than normal statewide based on the observed decadal trends.

Should the MJO push into Phase 4 or even Phase 5 late in the period, there would be potential for some much above normal readings as the calendar approaches mid-month.

[usedtobe]

Don, I like your thoughts. Any cold shots should be short lived over most of the east.

[wxmx]

I would cool TX and NM a bit... all the analogs all the time this winter have shown that area warm...and it's probably the coolest overall so far.

[JamieOber]

Don, I like your thoughts. Any cold shots should be short lived over most of the east.

Wes, Don, and others,

What are your thoughts for the second half of March.....know this is the medium range but don't see any long-range thread?

[usedtobe]

Wes, Don, and others,

What are your thoughts for the second half of March.....know this is the medium range but don't see any long-range thread?

Jamie, I don't have very good access to data right now but my guess is that the ao will stay positive which will probably keep the the mid atlantic and southeast warmer than normal during the second half of March. The mjo forecasts either take the mjo into phase 3 and stall it while it spirals into the circle of death or else they march it into phase 4 and 5 (UKMET, EURO). The latter progression would favor warm as would the positive ao. The one complication to it all is as we move farther into March the wavelengths will start changing but I doubt it will be early enough to help. Beyond March, I have no opinion,

[JamieOber]

Jamie, I don't have very good access to data right now but my guess is that the ao will stay positive which will probably keep the the mid atlantic and southeast warmer than normal during the second half of March. The mjo forecasts either take the mjo into phase 3 and stall it while it spirals into the circle of death or else they march it into phase 4 and 5 (UKMET, EURO). The latter progression would favor warm as would the positive ao. The one complication to it all is as we move farther into March the wavelengths will start changing but I doubt it will be early enough to help. Beyond March, I have no opinion,

Thanks, Wes. I appreciate it.

[donsutherland1]

Wes, Don, and others,

What are your thoughts for the second half of March.....know this is the medium range but don't see any long-range thread?

Jamie,

I'll look through the data tonight to see if anything stands out. Should the MJO progress into Phase 4 or 5 by mid-month and should its rate of progression remain slow, the second half of the month could also wind up on the warm side of normal for PA. Given how enduring the warmth has proved so far, I suspect odds are at least somewhat better than even that the warmth could persist through at least part of the second half of the month. FWIW, the CFSv2 shows warmth through the 7-day period ending March 26.

[Feb]

Jamie,

I'll look through the data tonight to see if anything stands out. Should the MJO progress into Phase 4 or 5 by mid-month and should its rate of progression remain slow, the second half of the month could also wind up on the warm side of normal for PA. Given how enduring the warmth has proved so far, I suspect odds are at least somewhat better than even that the warmth could persist through at least part of the second half of the month. FWIW, the CFSv2 shows warmth through the 7-day period ending March 26.

Hopefully everything turns around in May and the summer months average 20 degrees below normal. That would be my kind of summer.

[donsutherland1]

Some Leap Day Thoughts...

1. A significant storm will impact parts of the Northeast with snow. However, typical of La Niña-AO+ setups, the storm will not be a KU-type event. Instead. it will bring significant snows to interior sections of New England and parts of Upstate New York. The axis of heaviest snows (widespread 6" or above amounts with some 10" or greater amounts) will likely be focused on southern and central New Hampshire. Although Boston and Providence could pick up some accumulations, cities such as New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will likely be shut out when it comes to accumulations.

2. New York City will probably be sufficiently warm to assure that February 2012 will be the warmest February on record there. Records go back to 1869. In addition, February 2012 will be only the second February on record there during which the month's lowest temperature did not fall below 20°F (-6.7°C).

3. Looking ahead, both the first and second weeks of March look to be solidly on course for warm anomalies in eastern North America and cold ones in parts of the West and also, Alaska. Over the next two weeks, the AO is projected to remain strongly positive. One GFS ensemble member takes the AO above +5 for a time, but that is likely overdone. What is not overdone is that no meaningful blocking episodes appear likely through at least the medium-term.

4. The MJO moved into Phase 3 yesterday. It is likely to progress through Phases 4 and into Phase 5 over the next 10-15 days at a slowing rate of progression. There are some hints on the ensembles that it could then cycle back toward the low-amplitude circle. Given this information, a scenario where the MJO is confined in Phases 4-7 for a meaningful part of the second half of March is not unrealistic. Even with the changing wavelengths, that could lead to a mild outcome in areas that have suffered from nearly-unrelenting warm anomalies.

5. The CFSv2 shows the area of warmth in North America expanding in coming weeks.

[GaWx]

Atlanta's DJF avg. temp. for 2011-12, which will almost definitely verify as a weak La Nina as well as a strongly -PDO, is 50.2 F, making this the 7th warmest winter on record there and the warmest since 1956-7.

Warmest KATL winters since 1879-80:

1) 1889-90: 54.3 F; this was a strong La Nina with a PDO of -0.3

2) 1879-80: 52.5 F; this was a moderate La Nina with a PDO of -0.3

3) 1931-2: 51.9 F; this was a neutral ENSO with a PDO of -1.4

4) 1956-7: 51.5 F; this was a weak La Nina with a PDO of -1.1

5) 1949-50: 50.6 F; this was a strong La Nina with a PDO of -1.3

6) 1948-9: 50.3 F ; this was a neutral ENSO with a record negative PDO of -2.4

[nzucker]

The 12z ECM shows a monster ridge locking in at Day 8 with obscenely above normal temps for the Eastern US and SE Canada...widespread 60s and 70s possible:

[dsaur]

Atlanta's DJF avg. temp. for 2011-12, which will almost definitely verify as a weak La Nina as well as a strongly -PDO, is 50.2 F, making this the 7th warmest winter on record there and the warmest since 1956-7.

Warmest KATL winters since 1879-80:

1) 1889-90: 54.3 F; this was a strong La Nina with a PDO of -0.3

2) 1879-80: 52.5 F; this was a moderate La Nina with a PDO of -0.3

3) 1931-2: 51.9 F; this was a neutral ENSO with a PDO of -1.4

4) 1956-7: 51.5 F; this was a weak La Nina with a PDO of -1.1

5) 1949-50: 50.6 F; this was a strong La Nina with a PDO of -1.3

6) 1948-9: 50.3 F ; this was a neutral ENSO with a record negative PDO of -2.4

Hey, Larry. Thanks for this. What were the springs, and summers like after these warmest winters? Surely the flip finally occured Would prefer climo doesn't offer me another summer like the last two! It is bad enough to have the summer of record 90's bleed into the winter that wasn't (except for a few nights, and one day). Thanks, T

[The_Global_Warmer]

February finished 16th Warmest in STL. The 12 month running mean is 60.0F which is at historic yearly annual max's. 2011 was 4th warmest on record. This winter is the 6th warmest on record. Not to forget Novembers blow torch being 5.5F above normal. I personally have 4.1" of snow this season. Just a horrible winter. I am pretty astonished by the consitantsy.

Nov: 5.5F

Dec: 7.0F (40.8F)

Jan: Jan: 7.5F(38.1F)

Feb: 5.6F(41.3F)

For the winter: 40.1F which is 6th warmest. It wasn't absurdly warm at all. We had a couple big time werm days but a lot of 4-8F departure days.

February: 16F lowest temp(Twice) Average low was 32.0F Average High was 50.1F. That is just so ugly. We were above 50F fourteen times for highs. Above 60F, seven times. Four days with highs below 40F. 1 Day with the High below freezing. 12 morning lows below 32F. Despite having 16F has the max low, which is way way way above the long term mean. Which has been very warm the last 15 years. One snow at 1.8", however places SW had 3-5 and East had 2-3.5" It lasted two days. But yielded 1-2 hours of metro wide 30-45DBZ snow. Whoever got 2 hours typically reached 3-5".

Last time February was below 0F was 1996. That year we reached -12F.

January: 13F lowest temp, the average max min in STL is -12 to -14 in January. so 13F is roughly 26F above that. It is not much of a cold period for our standards. The highest temp was 70F. One record high was set on January 5th of 66F. 14 Days were above 50F for the high which is pretty rare. The very warm month was featured with 6 days above 66F for the high. 7 days below 20F for the low and 21 days below freezing helped keep low temp averages not to bad 28.3f/49.7F. The 47.9F is almost 10F above the long term mean. We had 1.8" of snow that came with a very large phasing PV anonamly, IIRC deepened to 516 as it shrunk in size from a large vortex to a smaller one ENE of here. It had enough lift to give us a beautiful blanket of dry powder. We had two pretty snowy mornings.

December: 19F was lowest temp. The average max low is around -3 to -5F. So again, really not that cold. The Highest temp was 62F. It was not near as warm as Jan and Feb with the high end temps. The major temp anonomaly comes from extremely consistant WAA to powerful CAA. We had many times with -10 to -15C 850 MB temps produce mid 30s to upper 40s throught the month for highs at the surface because of the weak snow pack, which grew weaker. If we had snow cover over 5-6 of these kinds of days. The entire scope is different. So the month all in all wasn't absurdly warm. You just get those results without snow cover. We had one wet snow with 1.9", it was all gone by late afternoon the next day. 32.8/48.7. Both were equally above normal. December had 12 days above 50F. And 19 Days below freezing.

That is 40 days above 50F. That is crappy to say the least. I can't imagine a winter the complete opposite anomalies.

On top of that the next 2-3 weeks look like a blow torch that could send March down the 5-10F above normal month. Right now models predict many chances at 70s maybe 80s here in the next two weeks.

4 of the 5 other warmest winters were in the 1800s. With three in the 1870s. and the other one was in 1931/32F. I am not going to call those suspect. But that seems extremely strange. Maybe some error, or just some wild extremes during a natural warm period. 1910-1940 was, then 1970-2000, so that would put it around 1850-1880. Which would fit very well.

Anyways I only brought that up, because that means an entire winter hasn't averaged this warm since the 1870s, except one time. Four of the top 5 coldest winters were in the 1970s.