ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The 00z GFS pushes back the October 29 analog and flirts with the January 21 analog for this winter. As far as I can see (and I am basically copying what happened before and during January 21st), we have a transient cold snap (one or two days below average) and convective snow showers with the polar advances on the 11-14th. Disturbance associated with cut-off energy moving from the west on the 14th, surface Low passes east. 850mb Low warms up everybody up to NYC, MARGINAL & TRANSIENT COLD ONCE AGAIN. Overrunning event mixed with sleet in NYC and coastal areas (minor snowfall accumulations for V-Day), inland areas in PA & CT most likely get the most benefit from this The winter pattern has been evident since late fall, mets and weenies just kept on thinking it would change. Not gonna happen until we get to March. Let's enjoy these little snow events and cold snaps while it is still possible, but the majority of this winter will be remembered for its warm temperatures. Who can agree you that at THIS POINT IN FEB? At least type in normal font or be banned for like the 5th time in your wx forum career...at least do us that justice. Nobody can read that pathetic font. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Euro has nice look too at 48, says near 0 NYC Monday am Emperor of the north will lay down his carpet before calling http://pic.twitter.com/hjHbNPty If it drops to 10 in NYC he'll claim verification since it was the nearest to zero they've been all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 If it drops to 10 in NYC he'll claim verification since it was the nearest to zero they've been all winter. Near NYC also helps, get into the vallies 50 miles North of NYC, if NYC hits 10F, I'm sure somewhere will hit zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 We've got to love the performance of these models and even their ensembles...they are so reliable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 If it drops to 10 in NYC he'll claim verification since it was the nearest to zero they've been all winter. He meant 0º C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Quick update: 1. The GFS ensembles are again indicating that the AO will be going positive down the road. 2. The GFS ensembles are showing a decline in the PNA. Both these developments, which have support from other guidance, suggest that the upcoming cold shot this weekend and perhaps into early next week in the East won't be long-lived. Instead, as has been the sad story all winter long, milder readings will reassert themselves. Although it is possible for some areas to pick up a very light snowfall tomorrow and perhaps another light snowfall this weekend, prospects for a large snowstorm remain low for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Quick update: 1. The GFS ensembles are again indicating that the AO will be going positive down the road. 2. The GFS ensembles are showing a decline in the PNA. Both these developments, which have support from other guidance, suggest that the upcoming cold shot this weekend and perhaps into early next week in the East won't be long-lived. Instead, as has been the sad story all winter long, milder readings will reassert themselves. Although it is possible for some areas to pick up a very light snowfall tomorrow and perhaps another light snowfall this weekend, prospects for a large snowstorm remain low for the foreseeable future. Still some pretty sizeable differences in the 11-15 day which made be tied to how the models are handling the tropical PAC and IO. I do think the GEFS may be reducing the ridging it had in the PAC in the last 48 hrs or so. Personally, I'm not a fan of the look in the 11-15 day overall, but these differences have a say as to what may happen across the nrn tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Still some pretty sizeable differences in the 11-15 day which made be tied to how the models are handling the tropical PAC and IO. I do think the GEFS may be reducing the ridging it had in the PAC in the last 48 hrs or so. Personally, I'm not a fan of the look in the 11-15 day overall, but these differences have a say as to what may happen across the nrn tier. I agree, CoastalWx. Hopefully, in the next few days, there will be much better agreement on how the MJO is evolving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 if this is correct?...What a tank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 if this is correct?...What a tank... Probably not, as it is highly unlikely that the AO fell two standard deviations in a day. The initial reading has been incorrect (usually very low) on several recent days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 He meant 0º C. He'll claim he was forecasting NYC's temp for his Euro clients and call it a "win". Good catch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 to be honest, the weekend cold shot isn't looking very impressive in Toronto as per EC. High in the low 20s on Saturday, which is only slightly below normal. The Euro wouldseem to indicate colder readings though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 4th warmest January in 118 years for the US. #1 2006 #2 1990 #3 1953 #4 2012 #5 1934 The average temperature in January 2012 was 36.3 F. This was 5.5 F warmer than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average, the 4th warmest January in 118 years. The temperature trend for the period of record (1895 to present) is 0.1 degrees Fahrenheit per decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 4th warmest January in 118 years for the US. #1 2006 #2 1990 #3 1953 #4 2012 #5 1934 The average temperature in January 2012 was 36.3 F. This was 5.5 F warmer than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average, the 4th warmest January in 118 years. The temperature trend for the period of record (1895 to present) is 0.1 degrees Fahrenheit per decade. That's really interesting and yet JB keeps saying that the earth is cooling and that it has cooled this year: BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Global temp so far this year -.182 C against 30 year mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That's really interesting and yet JB keeps saying that the earth is cooling and that it has cooled this year: BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Global temp so far this year -.182 C against 30 year mean As much as I dislike JB's views, he is right. You're missing the difference between the US and Global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 That's really interesting and yet JB keeps saying that the earth is cooling and that it has cooled this year: BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Global temp so far this year -.182 C against 30 year mean The big difference was in the USA this January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 As much as I dislike JB's views, he is right. You're missing the difference between the US and Global. Yeah, Canada and the US seem to be the only countries in the northern hemisphere which are torching this winter. Ironic that two of the countries most associated with winter extremes aren't getting them this year (except for Alaska of course). It looks like Don is going to be right. An in-and-out shot of cold this weekend then back to the same old. Funny to think I was considered odd for thinking we could see a 1931-32 style winter this year. Wish I'd been wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The big difference was in the USA this January. Also interesting to note that the blocking on our side of the globe makes a big difference in terms of getting the trough to deepen underneath. Last winter we had an ideal block orientation, near the Davis Straits, while this winter its north of Siberia. Additionally, Alaska was much warmer last Jan indicative of ridging there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 That's really interesting and yet JB keeps saying that the earth is cooling and that it has cooled this year... For January 2012, the global temperature was almost certainly lower than it was in January 2011. The NCDC and GISS datasets should be out in a week or two. UAH was cooler than last January. Having said that, month-to-month fluctuations do not necessarily mean that 2012 will end up cooler than 2011. Should the La Niña give way to neutral ENSO conditions or even an El Niño, this year would likely wind up warmer than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 NYC had the second warmest coldest 30 day period of all time...From 1/2-1/31 the average was 37.0...Just under the 37.3 set in 1997-98...As of today NYC has only 25 days with a minimum of 32 or lower...last year had 84...The record is 47 set in 2001-02... min days. 25 2011-12 so far... 47 2001-02 49 1997-98 50 1998-99 53 1982-83 54 1990-91 57 1996-97 59 1952-53 59 1972-73 60 1957-58 60 1994-95 season....coldest 30 day ave... 1997-98.....37.3............ 2011-12.....37.0......... 1948-49.....36.3......... 1931-32.....35.8.......... 2007-08.....35.7.......... 1952-53.....35.5.......... 2001-02.....35.4.......... 1936-37.....34.9.......... 1990-91.....34.5.......... 1932-33.....33.9.......... 1950-51.....33.0.......... 1974-75.....33.0.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 For January 2012, the global temperature was almost certainly lower than it was in January 2011. The NCDC and GISS datasets should be out in a week or two. UAH was cooler than last January. Having said that, month-to-month fluctuations do not necessarily mean that 2012 will end up cooler than 2011. Should the La Niña give way to neutral ENSO conditions or even an El Niño, this year would likely wind up warmer than last year. RSS came in at -0.060C for January, the second coldest January since 1993 behind 2008 I believe. As for 2012-13. I think next year maybe another La Nina event. I've analyzed only a few variables but those variables suggest another -ENSO event next year. Again anything is possible next year as its only February but last year's Nina event quickly weakened last spring leading to a neutral ENSO event by early Summer but the Nina came roaring back by September. Again from what I've analyzed this year bares resemblence to the 1973-1976 Nina event or narrowing it down to the 1974-75 Nina. Tempeature wise its also quite similar up until this point. If we see any Kelvin Waves propagating with this MJO wave I do suspect the Nina will take a bit of beating but if the MJO reverts back into more favorable phases for a La Nina then I wouldnt rule out any NIna event next year. Certanily a Weak Nino next Winter would be preferred in my opinion but thats just me. The subsurface anomalies were telling last summer which indicated this Nina is far from over. I wouldnt focus too much on the Low Level Easterlies. As for March, I think there's a good but not decent chance it may end up slightly colder than normal across the East. However, I think April will likely end up below normal across the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Also interesting to note that the blocking on our side of the globe makes a big difference in terms of getting the trough to deepen underneath. Last winter we had an ideal block orientation, near the Davis Straits, while this winter its north of Siberia. Additionally, Alaska was much warmer last Jan indicative of ridging there. Yeah, the blocking was in the wrong location to benefit t us here this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The first two months of the winter season, December and January, have been much warmer than average for the contiguous United States. This two-month period was the fourth warmest on record with a season-to-date temperature 3.8 degrees F above average. Much of the warmth was anchored across the northern and eastern United States. Minnesota was record warm for the period, with a temperature 10.1 degrees F above average. A total of twenty-two states from Montana to Maine had December 2011–January 2012 temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. http://www.daculawea...ate_summary.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Several quick thoughts: 1. Yesterday's AO was revised to -2.076. 2. Today, the AO rose somewhat further to -1.847. 3. The GFS ensembles are even more aggressive in forecasting a positive to perhaps strongly postive AO in the extended range. 4. The GFS continues to forecast a decline in the PNA in the extended range. As a result, the weekend/perhaps early week cold shot will likely quickly yield to moderation. Therefore, as has been the case all winter long, the cold won't lock into the East. Before then, some parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and perhaps extreme southern New England could experience a light snowfall or flurries later today and tonight. Another possibility for a light snow event could exist during the weekend should a system form along the boundary of a cold front that will be responsible for the temporary cooldown. Finally, there may be growing potential that the closing 7-10 days of the month could witness a return of cooler than normal readings in the Pacific Northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Several quick thoughts: 1. Yesterday's AO was revised to -2.076. 2. Today, the AO rose somewhat further to -1.847. 3. The GFS ensembles are even more aggressive in forecasting a positive to perhaps strongly postive AO in the extended range. 4. The GFS continues to forecast a decline in the PNA in the extended range. As a result, the weekend/perhaps early week cold shot will likely quickly yield to moderation. Therefore, as has been the case all winter long, the cold won't lock into the East. Before then, some parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and perhaps extreme southern New England could experience a light snowfall or flurries later today and tonight. Another possibility for a light snow event could exist during the weekend should a system form along the boundary of a cold front that will be responsible for the temporary cooldown. Finally, there may be growing potential that the closing 7-10 days of the month could witness a return of cooler than normal readings in the Pacific Northwest. yea. the 6Z GFSENS anomolies are showing a strong ridge building slowly back to the west, well off the west coast, which is in the wrong place of where we want it. This will promote a trough either in the central U.S., intermountain west, or maybe the west coast itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 All the models basically try to show a trough in the west with a +AO. Despite what the graphs or text index numbers show, when you have a vortex near the North Pole connecting to another piece in Kamchatka, it's a +AO look. The difference still exists out in the GOA where the GFS of course tries for more ridging, and so does the Canadian, but the euro gives the ridge a Kid N' Play flat top and had the Pacific plowing into the US. The differences have a say as to what the outcome will be across the nrn tier, but I wouldn't say it's a cold and stormy look for that area, unless maybe PAC NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 since our current -AO regime that started around the 20th of January...the GEFS has averaged about 1 std too high in it's prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 since our current -AO regime that started around the 20th of January...the GEFS has averaged about 1 std too high in it's prediction. That always seems to happen when the oscillations swing high or low. The models will either overpredict it or underpredict it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anomalous Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Several quick thoughts: 1. Yesterday's AO was revised to -2.076. 2. Today, the AO rose somewhat further to -1.847. 3. The GFS ensembles are even more aggressive in forecasting a positive to perhaps strongly postive AO in the extended range. 4. The GFS continues to forecast a decline in the PNA in the extended range. As a result, the weekend/perhaps early week cold shot will likely quickly yield to moderation. Therefore, as has been the case all winter long, the cold won't lock into the East. Before then, some parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and perhaps extreme southern New England could experience a light snowfall or flurries later today and tonight. Another possibility for a light snow event could exist during the weekend should a system form along the boundary of a cold front that will be responsible for the temporary cooldown. Finally, there may be growing potential that the closing 7-10 days of the month could witness a return of cooler than normal readings in the Pacific Northwest. Too bad the PNW doesn't very often get pertinant analysis on this discussion. The analysis available at Western USA usually devolves into constant childish bickering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Too bad the PNW doesn't very often get pertinant analysis on this discussion. The analysis available at Western USA usually devolves into constant childish bickering... Both the PNW and Seattle were discussed quite a bit during the 1/12-19 timeframe, leading up to and just after the snowstorm that brought 7.1" to Seattle, in this thread.FWIW, the following is a handy scatter diagram showing Seattle's 6" or greater snowstorms based on ENSO and the PNA. The most 1/18-19/2012 snowstorm is circled. Hopefully, there will be more opportunities to discuss winter weather potential in the PNW before Winter 2011-12 concludes. A decline in the PNA will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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