Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 CFS 2 monthlies released today Cooler look Northern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The objective analogs centered around 2/12 indicate that the East could be colder than normal. Should the PNA remain positive and the AO negative, that solution would be reasonable. At this time, my guess for the 2/8-15 period (#806 in this thread) appears to be on track. It should be noted that the 2/1 18z GFS is warmer, but we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The objective analogs centered around 2/12 indicate that the East could be colder than normal. Should the PNA remain positive and the AO negative, that solution would be reasonable. At this time, my guess for the 2/8-15 period (#806 in this thread) appears to be on track. It should be noted that the 2/1 18z GFS is warmer, but we'll see what happens. That's the best news i have heard all winter! Hope it verifies and thanks Don for all your info and hard work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Don, like Met1985 said that is good news for once. I can not help to be skeptical in the time frame of 8-15 colder temps because of all of our let downs. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 That's the best news i have heard all winter! Hope it verifies and thanks Don for all your info and hard work. Unfortunately, I suspect that the cold probably won't lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Unfortunately, I suspect that the cold probably won't lock in. This Winter Fall sucks. 2012-13 ftw. December and January and now February. Bring on spring, I've had a enough of this. Observing the models back in early January which looked to good to be true towards mid month, mid month rolls in and nothing happens and now they look good beyond Day 8. I'll believe it when I see it. Until I see the complete destruction of that AK Vortex there's no hoping in trying to revie this Winter. Its interesting how the ECMWF brings the MJO into phases 7,8 and perhaps 1 before the end runs show it trying to retreat back into the circle, unbelieveable. We finally have a decent -AO anomaly but the Pacific is overwhelming the Atlantic signal flooding the country with mild Pacific Air locking the cold air towards Alaska and Siberia. Just sad. Any thoughts on March Don? I had initially thought March may end up cooler across the consensus but I may change my mind if this continues. Lets see what evolves over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Any thoughts on March Don? My initial thinking is that there will be colder than normal weather in much of Canada, including southern Ontario and southern Quebec (Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal included). Parts of eastern Canada might be warm if there is a lot of blocking. Much will depend on the evolution of the ongoing La Niña, which could be fading fairly quickly in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Some thoughts regarding the MJO. On February 1, the MJO remained locked in Phase 6. Although the ECMWF ensembles have suggested that the MJO will progress through Phases 7 and 8 and possibly into Phase 1 by mid-February, I believe a slower and unsteady progression is more likely. By unsteady progression, I mean that the MJO could revert back to an earlier phase rather than pushing steadily forward. The last steady progression of the MJO occurred back in November. Since December, the MJO has been predominantly in two phases: December: Phases 4 and 5 on 29/31 days (94% of the time) January: Phases 5 and 6 on 28/31 days (90% of the time) If the stickiness one has witnessed in December and January persists, February could see the MJO predominantly in an area that would include Phases 6, 7, and 8. Composite anomalies for those phases are below: Such a situation would likely lead to widespread warm anomalies for February for a large part of North America despite some transient cold that cold perhaps lead to short periods of cold anomalies. As for the guidance on the MJO, already the Canadian ensembles with a slower progression than the ECMWF ensembles are performing better relative to the recent movement of the MJO: This recent superior performance by the Canadian ensembles might be offering a hint that the lack of progression one has witnessed in December and January could persist for at least part of February. Hence, at this time, I have increased confidence in my February idea (laid out in message #703 in this thread): Finally, if the MJO continues to behave as it has through February, March might see the MJO spend more time in Phases 8, 1, 2, and 3 than in the other phases. If so, that could lead to a colder outcome in areas that have witnessed an abundance of warmth this winter. It could also be consistent with the start of meteorological spring following a number of La Niña winters. That's not cast in concrete and, perhaps has an indication of that uncertainty, the early CFSv2 forecasts for March have a lot of warm anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Some thoughts regarding the MJO. On February 1, the MJO remained locked in Phase 6. Although the ECMWF ensembles have suggested that the MJO will progress through Phases 7 and 8 and possibly into Phase 1 by mid-February, I believe a slower and unsteady progression is more likely. By unsteady progression, I mean that the MJO could revert back to an earlier phase rather than pushing steadily forward. The last steady progression of the MJO occurred back in November. Since December, the MJO has been predominantly in two phases: December: Phases 4 and 5 on 29/31 days (94% of the time) January: Phases 5 and 6 on 28/31 days (90% of the time) If the stickiness one has witnessed in December and January persists, February could see the MJO predominantly in an area that would include Phases 6, 7, and 8. Composite anomalies for those phases are below: Such a situation would likely lead to widespread warm anomalies for February for a large part of North America despite some transient cold that cold perhaps lead to short periods of cold anomalies. As for the guidance on the MJO, already the Canadian ensembles with a slower progression than the ECMWF ensembles are performing better relative to the recent movement of the MJO: This recent superior performance by the Canadian ensembles might be offering a hint that the lack of progression one has witnessed in December and January could persist for at least part of February. Hence, at this time, I have increased confidence in my February idea (laid out in message #703 in this thread): Finally, if the MJO continues to behave as it has through February, March might see the MJO spend more time in Phases 8, 1, 2, and 3 than in the other phases. If so, that could lead to a colder outcome in areas that have witnessed an abundance of warmth this winter. It could also be consistent with the start of meteorological spring following a number of La Niña winters. That's not cast in concrete and, perhaps has an indication of that uncertainty, the early CFSv2 forecasts for March have a lot of warm anomalies. AM19PSU also pointed out, that on the OLR Hovmoller charts which I saw for myself, the Euro ensembles indicate convection returning into the IO, despite what those phase diagrams say. The GEFS as of the 31st of Jan showed little convection in the IO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 AM19PSU also pointed out, that on the OLR Hovmoller charts which I saw for myself, the Euro ensembles indicate convection returning into the IO, despite what those phase diagrams say. The GEFS as of the 31st of Jan showed little convection in the IO. Thanks for that info. It will be interesting to see how things ultimately unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 AM19PSU also pointed out, that on the OLR Hovmoller charts which I saw for myself, the Euro ensembles indicate convection returning into the IO, despite what those phase diagrams say. The GEFS as of the 31st of Jan showed little convection in the IO. Based on the MJO charts, wouldn't convection returning to the IO mean that the MJO actually progresses into Phases 2-3, and wouldn't that, in turn, mean colder weather for the CONUS? I'm knew to this so any help is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Based on the MJO charts, wouldn't convection returning to the IO mean that the MJO actually progresses into Phases 2-3, and wouldn't that, in turn, mean colder weather for the CONUS? I'm knew to this so any help is appreciated. It's more like 90-120E, so closer to Indonesia. http://www.esrl.noaa...o_olr_comps.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It's more like 90-120E, so closer to Indonesia. http://www.esrl.noaa...o_olr_comps.gif How often are those Hovmoller OLR charts updated on the CPC site? Still has the 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 How often are those Hovmoller OLR charts updated on the CPC site? Still has the 31st. They're supposed to be updated daily. A number of CPC charts have not been updating on a regular basis. I don't know what the issue is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Don, historically the Canadian ensembles are one of the worst performers among the dynamical models regarding the MJO...it always looks like a squashed spider, even during relatively strong MJO events... I have seen members in all phases in the longer range while in the circle of death. The Euro and Ukie ensembles are 1st and 2nd with the GEFS a little distant third, I think. I have little doubt about the MJO wave progressing towards phase 7, with what I'm a little less confident is that it can go thru phases 8-2... my guess is that it won't, or it will be a very low amplitude event during those phases. Also, even with the forecasted -EPO, the models are not too enthused about any arctic blast, which is a bit rare in model world in the medium/long range...usually with heights>546dm north of AK we see 1050+mb highs entering NA, at least in model world...but not this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Don, historically the Canadian ensembles are one of the worst performers among the dynamical models regarding the MJO...it always looks like a squashed spider, even during relatively strong MJO events... I have seen members in all phases in the longer range while in the circle of death. The Euro and Ukie ensembles are 1st and 2nd with the GEFS a little distant third, I think. I have little doubt about the MJO wave progressing towards phase 7, with what I'm a little less confident is that it can go thru phases 8-2... my guess is that it won't, or it will be a very low amplitude event during those phases. Also, even with the forecasted -EPO, the models are not too enthused about any arctic blast, which is a bit rare in model world in the medium/long range...usually with heights>546dm north of AK we see 1050+mb highs entering NA, at least in model world...but not this time around. Is this wrong then? http://www.daculawea...ast_anomaly.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Don, historically the Canadian ensembles are one of the worst performers among the dynamical models regarding the MJO...it always looks like a squashed spider, even during relatively strong MJO events... I have seen members in all phases in the longer range while in the circle of death. The Euro and Ukie ensembles are 1st and 2nd with the GEFS a little distant third, I think. I have little doubt about the MJO wave progressing towards phase 7, with what I'm a little less confident is that it can go thru phases 8-2... my guess is that it won't, or it will be a very low amplitude event during those phases. Also, even with the forecasted -EPO, the models are not too enthused about any arctic blast, which is a bit rare in model world in the medium/long range...usually with heights>546dm north of AK we see 1050+mb highs entering NA, at least in model world...but not this time around. I thoght at one time the GFS was progging some uber high to make it into the CONUS, but I tried to find that e-mail (which of course I can't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 How often are those Hovmoller OLR charts updated on the CPC site? Still has the 31st. Usually everyday. CPC didn't update anything yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Don, historically the Canadian ensembles are one of the worst performers among the dynamical models regarding the MJO...it always looks like a squashed spider, even during relatively strong MJO events... I have seen members in all phases in the longer range while in the circle of death. The Euro and Ukie ensembles are 1st and 2nd with the GEFS a little distant third, I think. I have little doubt about the MJO wave progressing towards phase 7, with what I'm a little less confident is that it can go thru phases 8-2... my guess is that it won't, or it will be a very low amplitude event during those phases. Also, even with the forecasted -EPO, the models are not too enthused about any arctic blast, which is a bit rare in model world in the medium/long range...usually with heights>546dm north of AK we see 1050+mb highs entering NA, at least in model world...but not this time around. Jorge, It isn't often that I use the Canadian ensembles to any degree. However, at least over the past few days, the Canadian Ensembles seem to have done better with respect to the MJO (keeping it longer in Phase 6). Hence, I like the idea of a blend that favors a slower progression of the MJO. The persistent lack of progression seen in December and January may also offer insight until there is strong evidence that the MJO has again begun to break out of such a situation. It will do so eventually, but it might still take some time before that process commences. Possible triggers might include an accelerating fade of the La Niña, hemispheric changes tied to the changing seasons, etc. For now, I suspect that a situation where the MJO is predominantly in Phases 6, 7, or 8 for February is more likely than one where the MJO progresses steadily into the colder phases. Toward the end of the month, it would not surprise me if there were a few days that fell into Phases 1 or 2, but I expect perhaps more than two-thirds of the days to fall into Phases 6, 7, or 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 How often are those Hovmoller OLR charts updated on the CPC site? Still has the 31st. Not sure what chart you are referring to since there are a variety of Hovmoller plots, but the latest Wheeler/Hendon RMM plots are available as of today. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles forecast a progression of the MJO into phase 8, although the GFS continues to be significantly stronger in magnitude. It is still important to realize that both models have a substancial amplitude in both phases that has yet to have been witnessed this winter. Don is actually right... the Canadian ensembles actually have the most skill out of any model ensemble suite when it comes to forecasting the MJO. This is mainly because the Canadian ensembles are unique for the fact that in addition to having different analyzed perturbations for each model in the ensemble suite, the actual physics of each model is slightly different than the operational run. Unfortunately, I think its "skillful" forecast is more of a play on the fact that most models give very poor MJO forecasts and since the Canadian ensembles often has the most spread (the squashed spider as Jorge was alluding to) its more likely to be right merely based on the fact that its ensemble members go in every which direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Thanks Phil. The plots seem to have updated perhaps within the last hour or so? Just before 9 am, I still received the January 31-February 14 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Is this wrong then? http://www.daculawea...ast_anomaly.php My guess is that in slow progressing/low amplitude times, the squashed spider will prove a good guidance. What I have seen is closer to the 180/365 days anomalies correlation in that page. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL047480.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Not sure what chart you are referring to since there are a variety of Hovmoller plots, but the latest Wheeler/Hendon RMM plots are available as of today. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles forecast a progression of the MJO into phase 8, although the GFS continues to be significantly stronger in magnitude. It is still important to realize that both models have a substancial amplitude in both phases that has yet to have been witnessed this winter. Don is actually right... the Canadian ensembles actually have the most skill out of any model ensemble suite when it comes to forecasting the MJO. This is mainly because the Canadian ensembles are unique for the fact that in addition to having different analyzed perturbations for each model in the ensemble suite, the actual physics of each model is slightly different than the operational run. Unfortunately, I think its "skillful" forecast is more of a play on the fact that most models give very poor MJO forecasts and since the Canadian ensembles often has the most spread (the squashed spider as Jorge was alluding to) its more likely to be right merely based on the fact that its ensemble members go in every which direction. Agree. Hence, it probably has one of the highest SD among it's members...that alone would bring my confidence for it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Not sure what chart you are referring to since there are a variety of Hovmoller plots, but the latest Wheeler/Hendon RMM plots are available as of today. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles forecast a progression of the MJO into phase 8, although the GFS continues to be significantly stronger in magnitude. It is still important to realize that both models have a substancial amplitude in both phases that has yet to have been witnessed this winter. Don is actually right... the Canadian ensembles actually have the most skill out of any model ensemble suite when it comes to forecasting the MJO. This is mainly because the Canadian ensembles are unique for the fact that in addition to having different analyzed perturbations for each model in the ensemble suite, the actual physics of each model is slightly different than the operational run. Unfortunately, I think its "skillful" forecast is more of a play on the fact that most models give very poor MJO forecasts and since the Canadian ensembles often has the most spread (the squashed spider as Jorge was alluding to) its more likely to be right merely based on the fact that its ensemble members go in every which direction. Look at that tiny spread on the GEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Phil, I'm referring to these OLR charts. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ But they just updated today, in the last 2 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Phil, I'm referring to these OLR charts. http://www.cpc.ncep....ink/MJO/CLIVAR/ But they just updated today, in the last 2 hrs. Scroll down and look at the differences between the EC and GFS in terms of OLR anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 See the differences? GEFS: ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The difference between the GEFS and EC are amazing right now. The 12z GEFS are actually colder across the northeast than 00z. Something is going to give one way or another...or at least try to compromise. Both models may be displaying their bias one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 See the differences? GEFS: ECMWF: Yeah, big differences, but looks like the GEFS has better continuity between verified and forecasted...ie. look at ~160E and ~170W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yeah, big differences, but looks like the GEFS has better continuity between verified and forecasted...ie. look at ~160E Yeah I brought that up yesterday. The EC goes right from blues to yellows which looks incorrect, although as far as the IO convection...it could have the right idea, but that's more of a forecast. The continuity in the near term is a little weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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