Srain Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 My concern is the West Coast Ridge may be a bit too far E and any shift W will open the door to cold air spilling S into the Plains along the lee side of the Rockies allowing colder air to head a bit further W into the S Plains. The Hudson Bay vortex could be a bit too far E as well. Time will tell, but a transition to a colder regime, albeit short lived, may well be ahead for the Eastern half of the Nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 if this is right the AO is at its lowest point in months...the forecasts are all over the place as usual...I hope it's the start of a less positive February ... I've been going back and graphing the AO/NAO with some of the bigger southern snowstorms and generally what I'm finding is that the AO tanks a week or so BEFORE the storms occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 This winter has been predictable a la nina with no blocking and the trends over the last 15 or 20 years for milder winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 the West Coast Ridge may be a bit too far E and any shift W will open the door to cold air spilling S into the Plains along the lee side of the Rockies allowing colder air to head a bit further W into the S Plains. The Hudson Bay vortex could be a bit too far E as well. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't believe there will be rapid weakening. My guess is that there will be a slow fade during February, possibly with the Region 3.4 anomalies starting out in the -1.2°C to -1.0°C range and ending in the -0.9°C to -0.7°C range. Hey Don, the one thing I'm curious about is your -PNA forecast for February...are you seeing something specific occuring that would result in a -PNA? Are you still thinking that January will turn out the coldest month relative to avg in the East in the DJF trimonthly? Would years that did not abide by the expected PNA statistical relationships to ENSO still be used to quantify the PNA in February and March? I still feel February and March will avg out below average in the Eastern US in temps, and above normal in snowfall,with a net +PNA/-AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 This winter has been predictable a la nina with no blocking and the trends over the last 15 or 20 years for milder winters. Mind elaborating a bit, I'm having trouble understanding what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The models want to continue with the mildest temperatures relative to the means over the Upper Midwest at least into the first week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Hey Don, the one thing I'm curious about is your -PNA forecast for February...are you seeing something specific occuring that would result in a -PNA? My assumption was a PNA in the range of -0.5 to +0.5, so I'm considering the possibility of a positive PNA, largely based on its verifying above what would typically result from a strong PDO-. Are you still thinking that January will turn out the coldest month relative to avg in the East in the DJF trimonthly? For the big cities of the Mid-Atlantic (DCA, BWI, PHL, and NYC), probably. Readings are running fairly close to what I had expected through 1/23. How February ends could be important. Would years that did not abide by the expected PNA statistical relationships to ENSO still be used to quantify the PNA in February and March? Yes. The map I posted is my best guess. However, I have run other scenarios, too. As noted previously, an AO that generally averages < -2 and/or a PNA that averages > +1 would increase prospects for a colder outcome in the East. As always, there is a risk that such guesses can be wrong. Monthly forecasts are inherently difficult, especially when there are no overpowering signals e.g., the AO+ signal leading up to December. I still feel February and March will avg out below average in the Eastern US in temps, and above normal in snowfall,with a net +PNA/-AO March is meteorological spring. I don't compare it to December-February. FWIW, my very early thinking is that March could be colder than normal in the East. I'll continue to assess the data as it comes in, but that's the way I lean right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Mind elaborating a bit, I'm having trouble understanding what you're saying. I believe the pattern up until now is why we have had a mild winter ( +AO and +NAO and a bad pacific)as well as the increase in sun activity. December and january over the last 10 or 15 years are around 1.5 over even the 1981-2010 averages. I do agree with you that Feb and March will be colder than normal,especially March and both will be more snowy. The -AO and the la nina weakening even just a bit and when the PNA is positive and the NAO is negative then we'll cash in nicely I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 It's the lowest reading in just over a year. The current figure of -2.249 is the lowest since the AO was -2.411 on January 22, 2011. Seems strange that it would go so low all of a sudden. Didn't see any hints of this a few days ago. A message on the CPC AO page says Note: The observed (solid black) line on the AO Ensemble Mean Outlook is incorrect. We hope to have this corrected shortly. http://www.cpc.ncep...._index/ao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Seems strange that it would go so low all of a sudden. Didn't see any hints of this a few days ago. A message on the CPC AO page says Note: The observed (solid black) line on the AO Ensemble Mean Outlook is incorrect. We hope to have this corrected shortly. http://www.cpc.ncep...._index/ao.shtml Today's reading was -2.045. The message related to the observed line has been up for some time. I don't believe it has anything to do with the recent turn to a negative AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Today's reading was -2.045. The message related to the observed line has been up for some time. I don't believe it has anything to do with the recent turn to a negative AO. Didn't realize that.. thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Didn't realize that.. thanks for the clarification. No problem at all. Hopefully, whatever the issue is, it will be fixed soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I've been going back and graphing the AO/NAO with some of the bigger southern snowstorms and generally what I'm finding is that the AO tanks a week or so BEFORE the storms occur. I made a list of dates with the lowest AO index since 1950 and most of the time NYC got a snowfall or cold wave just before or after the lowest reading... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/20578-winter-2011-12-analogs/page__st__35 NYC got its biggest snowfall to date a few days before the AO hit its low....Hopefully it gets lower as we head into February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I made a list of dates with the lowest AO index since 1950 and most of the time NYC got a snowfall or cold wave just before or after the lowest reading... http://www.americanw...gs/page__st__35 NYC got its biggest snowfall to date a few days before the AO hit its low....Hopefully it gets lower as we head into February... I wonder if the earlier storms for you has anything to do with latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I thought my February 2012 outlook (#703) was ugly enough. The 1/25 run of the CFSv2 is even uglier with coast-to-coast warmth in the CONUS and across almost all of Canada. Alaska and adjacent parts of western Canada are cool. For the CONUS, one could almost have redrawn the February 2000 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Very impressive to see Fargo surpass it's warmest first half of winter by 3 degrees. http://www.wday.com/...ticle/id/57660/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Verification: In Message #424, I stated: It still remains unlikely that the kind of regime change that is needed to bring and sustain severe cold in the areas experiencing the warmth is likely during the January 16-23 timeframe... As a result, much of the East will likely remain at least somewhat milder than normal during that timeframe, but pockets of near normal readings, particularly in the Southeast may occur courtesy of a transient cold shot. Stronger and more sustained cold might be building into the Northern Plains from western Canada and that could be sufficient for that part of the U.S. to have colder than normal readings for the period. I posted the following map for the January 16-23, 2012 timeframe: The Southeast was uniformly milder than normal. However, there was an area of near normal temperatures in New England (less than 0.5°C above normal). The Northern Plains were also colder than normal. The map for the January 16-23, 2012 outcome is below: Notice also the much above normal readings that continued to dominate in the Arctic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Don, great work. It looks like our concerns (you me Adam and others) for the warmth to return as we start February is becoming legitimate. Having said that, the PNA spike may allow for a brief window of cold / wintry weather Superbowl Weekend. We'll see how the tropical forcing behaves over the next week to see if any push out of the phase 4-6 area will allow for a better assault at the PV in Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Don, great work. It looks like our concerns (you me Adam and others) for the warmth to return as we start February is becoming legitimate. Having said that, the PNA spike may allow for a brief window of cold / wintry weather Superbowl Weekend. We'll see how the tropical forcing behaves over the next week to see if any push out of the phase 4-6 area will allow for a better assault at the PV in Alaska. Thanks HM. I hope that the PNA spike will at least allow for a shot of wintry weather. Hopefully, the MJO will move out of its warm phases sooner rather than later. It will be interesting to see how things ultimately unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Don, great work. It looks like our concerns (you me Adam and others) for the warmth to return as we start February is becoming legitimate. Having said that, the PNA spike may allow for a brief window of cold / wintry weather Superbowl Weekend. We'll see how the tropical forcing behaves over the next week to see if any push out of the phase 4-6 area will allow for a better assault at the PV in Alaska. It looks as if the PNA starts to spike but Canada is devoid of cold because of the massive vortex moving from AK to the Bering Strait/Kamchatka area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I agree. A very active pattern is shaping up and the storm near the 25th crossing the S Plains, +/- a couple of days, may well be a severe weather event worth monitoring. For verifications purposes... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 331 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012 ...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY FOR SOUTHWEST SAN ANTONIO TX... A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREA ALONG DEER PARK (STREET) IN SOUTHWEST SAN ANTONIO. THE FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN DETERMINED... EVENT DATE: JANUARY 25 2012 EVENT RATING: AWAITING FINAL DATA ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): AWAITING FINAL RATING INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0 EVENT START TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 29.4556/-98.6645 AT 415 AM EVENT END TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 29.4545/-98.6603 DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 0.27 DAMAGE PATH WIDTH (IN YARDS): 30 THE TORNADO PATH BEGAN AT THE INTERSECTION OF DEER PARK AND RICHLAND HILLS DRIVE...AND CONTINUED ALONG DEER PARK TO THE INTERSECTION OF DEER PARK AND LEANDER. THE PRIMARY DAMAGE WAS A CARPORT BEING THROWN INTO A HOME AND CAUSING SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 251 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012 ...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY FOR NORTHEAST AUSTIN TX... A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED THIS MORNING IN THE AREA ALONG SPRINGDALE ROAD IN NORTHEAST AUSTIN. THE FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN DETERMINED... EVENT DATE: JANUARY 25 2012 EVENT RATING: AWAITING FINAL DATA ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): AWAITING FINAL RATING INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0 EVENT START TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 30.3221/-97.6536 AT 258 AM EVENT END TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 33.3381/-97.6551 AT 305 AM DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 1.14 DAMAGE PATH WIDTH (IN YARDS): 50 THE TORNADO PATH BEGAN AT THE INTERSECTION OF COMMERCIAL PARK DRIVE AND OLD MANOR ROAD...WITH RADAR INDICATING A TOUCHDOWN TIME NEAR 2:58 AM. DAMAGE CONTINUED NORTH THROUGH AN INDUSTRIAL PARK...THEN ACROSS U.S. 290...BEFORE ENTERING THE WALNUT PLACE SUBDIVISION. FURTHER DAMAGE OCCURRED TO HOMES ON THE WEST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL... WITH TREES ON THE EAST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL LAYING DOWN TOWARD THE WEST AND CONVERGING WITH THE DAMAGE TO THE HOMES. DEBRIS WAS NOTED ALONG FERGUSON LANE...WITH THE TORNADO PATH ENDING JUST WEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF FERGUSON LANE AND SANSOM ROAD. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 946 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0630 AM TSTM WND DMG CALDWELL 30.53N 96.70W 01/25/2012 BURLESON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT TREES DOWN ALONG FM 975 IN CALDWELL. 0645 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 S CALDWELL 30.46N 96.70W 01/25/2012 BURLESON TX EMERGENCY MNGR TREES DOWN AND ROOF DAMAGE AT FM 975 AT SECOND CREEK. 1 HOME AND 4 BARNS DAMAGED IN DEANVILLE AT CR 116 AND FM 111. TREE AND ROOF DAMAGE AT FM 111 AND CR 121. BUILDING DAMAGE AT SOUTH OF FM 60 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36. 0700 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 N SOMERVILLE 30.43N 96.53W 01/25/2012 BURLESON TX PUBLIC TIN CONSTUCTED TIRE SHOP ON HWY 36 DESTROYED. 0715 AM TSTM WND DMG BRYAN 30.67N 96.37W 01/25/2012 BRAZOS TX TRAINED SPOTTER DAMAGE TO GARAGE DOOR AND AND ROOF DAMAGE TO HOUSE AT INTERSECTION OF HWY 30 AND FM 158. 0715 AM TSTM WND GST BRENHAM 30.16N 96.40W 01/25/2012 E0.00 MPH WASHINGTON TX AWOS 70 MPH GUST AT BRENHAM AWOS. 0717 AM TORNADO BRENHAM 30.16N 96.40W 01/25/2012 WASHINGTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR FO TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN WEST OF COUNTY ROAD 50 JUST TO THE NORTH OF BRENHAM MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. THE TORNADO TRAVELED TO NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF FM262 AND CR65. IT DESTROYED SEVERAL SMALL METAL OUTBUILDINGS, REMOVED ROOF FROM A BARN, MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE AND SNAPPED NUMEROUS LARGE TREES. PATH 2.5 MILES LONG AND 50 YD WIDE 0720 AM TSTM WND DMG BRENHAM 30.16N 96.40W 01/25/2012 WASHINGTON TX TRAINED SPOTTER NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND VEHICLE DAMAGE IN DOWNTOWN BRENHAM. 0724 AM TSTM WND DMG COLLEGE STATION 30.60N 96.31W 01/25/2012 BRAZOS TX PUBLIC BUILDING WALL VENEER FELL DOWN AT TEXAS AVENUE AND UNIVERSITY. 0800 AM TSTM WND DMG BEDIAS 30.78N 95.95W 01/25/2012 GRIMES TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE HAY BARN DESTROYED, SILO KNOCKED OVER AND TREES DOWN ON FM 6096, 2.5 MILES WEST OF BEDIAS. 0800 AM TSTM WND DMG CALDWELL 30.53N 96.70W 01/25/2012 BURLESON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT BARN DAMAGE. ROOF AND STRUCTURE DAMAGE TO HOUSE ON CR 116 IN CALDWELL. 0800 AM TSTM WND DMG BRENHAM 30.16N 96.40W 01/25/2012 WASHINGTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT COUNTY WIDE DAMAGE INCLUDING ROOF DAMAGE AND DOWNED POWER LINES. 0800 AM TSTM WND DMG BRENHAM 30.16N 96.40W 01/25/2012 WASHINGTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT COUNTY WIDE DAMAGE INCLUDING ROOF DAMAGE AND DOWNED POWER LINES. 0800 AM TSTM WND DMG BRENHAM 30.16N 96.40W 01/25/2012 WASHINGTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT COUNTY WIDE DAMAGE INCLUDING ROOF DAMAGE AND DOWNED POWER LINES. 0808 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 W MADISONVILLE 30.95N 95.99W 01/25/2012 MADISON TX EMERGENCY MNGR BARN DAMAGE, TIN SHED KNOCKED FLAT, TWISTED METAL AND WOOD ON ROAD, TANKS THROWN AROUND...INTERSECTION AREA OF FM 1452 AND FM 2289. 0812 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 E MADISONVILLE 30.95N 95.86W 01/25/2012 MADISON TX EMERGENCY MNGR 18 WHEELER TRUCK BLOWN OVER ON INTERSTATE 45 AT THE 145 MILE MARKER. 0830 AM TSTM WND DMG CROCKETT 31.32N 95.46W 01/25/2012 HOUSTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR TREES DOWN ACROSS HOUSTON COUNTY. 0830 AM TSTM WND DMG HUNTSVILLE 30.71N 95.55W 01/25/2012 WALKER TX EMERGENCY MNGR WIDESPREAD DAMAGE IN AND AROUND HUNTSVILLE FROM 830 TO 930 TIME FRANE. 0842 AM TSTM WND DMG MONTGOMERY 30.39N 95.70W 01/25/2012 MONTGOMERY TX BROADCAST MEDIA DOWNED TREES IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY. 1130 AM FLASH FLOOD 9 N ROSENBERG 29.68N 95.79W 01/25/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR ROAD CLOSURES ON DORMAN COURT AND INTERSECTION OF FALCON LANDING AND SPRING GREEN. 1135 AM TSTM WND DMG ROSENBERG 29.55N 95.79W 01/25/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR POWER LINES DOWN AND POLE DOWN WITH LOW HANGING LINES ON FM 360. 1204 PM TSTM WND DMG PEARLAND 29.56N 95.28W 01/25/2012 BRAZORIA TX EMERGENCY MNGR SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE. POWER LINES DOWN, POLES LEARNING, SNAPPED TREE LIMBS. AROUND 20 HOMES WITH SIDING AND ROOF DAMAGE. 5 BUSINESSES WITH DAMAGE. DAMAGE BEGINS AROUND HATFIELD RD AND EXTENDS ENE 2 MILES WITH DAMAGE SWATH UP TO 1/4 MILE WIDE. 1205 PM TORNADO PEARLAND 29.56N 95.28W 01/25/2012 BRAZORIA TX EMERGENCY MNGR FO TORNADO NEAR HIGHWAY 35 AND PLUM STREET. CHEVRON GAS STATION HAD THE GAS PUMP AWNING DESTROYED AND A BUSINESS SOUTH OF PLUM STREET HAD ITS ROOF PEELED BACK. DAMAGE PATH APPROXIMATELY 75 YARDS WIDE AND 200 YARDS LONG. 1218 PM FLASH FLOOD HOUSTON 29.77N 95.39W 01/25/2012 HARRIS TX COUNTY OFFICIAL ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO HIGH WATER AT WESTPARK AND POST OAK EASTBOUND, BELTWAY 8 NORTH AND CENTRAL TOLL PLAZA, INTERSTATE 45 NORTH FEEDER ROAD AT RICHEY ROAD, HIGHWAY 59 AT WESTPARK ROAD, HARDY TOLL ROAD SOUTH AT ALDINE BENDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Back in Message #548, I posted some charts for the January 24-31 period showing widespread warmth. The charts are below: The 1/26 0z MOS guidance is indicating that tomorrow will feature exceptionally warm readings. Some examples: Baltimore: 58° Boston: 54° Charleston: 74° New York City: 56° Philadelphia: 56° Raleigh: 68° Richmond: 65° Washington, DC (DCA): 62° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I thought my February 2012 outlook (#703) was ugly enough. The 1/25 run of the CFSv2 is even uglier with coast-to-coast warmth in the CONUS and across almost all of Canada. Alaska and adjacent parts of western Canada are cool. For the CONUS, one could almost have redrawn the February 2000 map. at what point do things become so ugly (warm), that they cross the line from ugly into sweet. I say after the first week in FEB that line crosses much easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Modelling today shows a nice MJO wave propogating across the PAcific into phases 7-8-1. Warm Feb forecasts in trouble if correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Modelling today shows a nice MJO wave propogating across the PAcific into phases 7-8-1. Warm Feb forecasts in trouble if correct It's a bit of a stretch saying that they show it moving thru phases 8 & 1 Phase 7 is still warm for the east coast, but it's better than dying and looping thru phases 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Back in Message #548, I posted some charts for the January 24-31 period showing widespread warmth. The charts are below: The 1/26 0z MOS guidance is indicating that tomorrow will feature exceptionally warm readings. Some examples: Baltimore: 58° Boston: 54° Charleston: 74° New York City: 56° Philadelphia: 56° Raleigh: 68° Richmond: 65° Washington, DC (DCA): 62° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 For those who are interested, the dreary CFSv2 forecast for February 2012 is below: At this point in time, the CFSv2 has frequently demonstrated a degree of skill with regard to the following month's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 For those who are interested, the dreary CFSv2 forecast for February 2012 is below: At this point in time, the CFSv2 has frequently demonstrated a degree of skill with regard to the following month's forecast. FWIW, the Euro weeklies are showing a shot for the Northeast in Week 2 (Feb 6-12), coincident with the expected response from tropical convection heading to 160-170E around the same period. Weeks 3 and 4 are ugly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 FWIW, the Euro weeklies are showing a shot for the Northeast in Week 2 (Feb 6-12), coincident with the expected response from tropical convection heading to 160-170E around the same period. Weeks 3 and 4 are ugly though. If the forcing loops back / diminishes, it will get ugly again. The good news is that the environment is more conducive than it was before for a progression eastward. I suspect the environment will continue to grow favorable through mid-April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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