bluewave Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 ... New 24-hour snowfall records for 2012 January 18th... Location new old year of records record record old record kept since ---------------------------------------------------------------- LaCrosse WA (1700) 12.0* 3.0 1950 1931 Lewiston ID (2200) 8.4 2.4 1937 1881 Winchester ID (1800) 8.2 8.0 1972 1939 Lind WA (1530) 6.0 1.0 1972 1931 Grand Coulee dam WA (1700) 5.0 2.5 1937 1934 Odessa WA (1730) 5.0 1.8 1954 1902 Within the parenthesis is the observation time for each location (in 24-hour Pacific Standard time). * This is the most snowfall ever recorded for a 24-hour period at LaCrosse WA since records have been kept in 1931. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 There was also a near miss blizzard Feb 25-27th, 1999 that buried Cape Cod under 2 feet I remember watching the radar watching the precipitation shield swirl around hoping that it would back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 when is this pattern change to big -NAO, blizzards for east coast happening Feb 10 and beyond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Confidence is increasing that the 25th time frame may well offer a severe weather event for the S Plains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Confidence is increasing that the 25th time frame may well offer a severe weather event for the S Plains... 22nd-23rd also starting to look a little interesting in the MS Valley/Ohio Valley area. The setup is synoptically favorable, but moisture is a little borderline with models progging dews in the mid-upper 50's (maybe a little better south of the OV) but we had about 10 tornadoes in IN/KY with those dews a couple days ago. Something to keep an eye on anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Pretty much agree with Don. It looks like a pattern change, but not so much for the east. The stratosphere warming has done a number to the upper stratosphere PV, and that usually translate to a weaker troposheric PV, which is more vulnerable to planetary wave attacks. This will probably translate into a higher latitude Aleutian high, bringing down the EPO and tapping some artic air. This willl be probably far west enough so that a downstream trough develops near the W Coast, in a classic -PNA configuration. Eventually, some progress east of said ridge and if a SSW occurs, Greenland ridging could develop, bringing a fair ammount of cold for the eastern third, although this will probably happen in February. In the meantime, other than the extreme NE, I would remain cautious of any modeling cool down. Classic -PNA indeed, with textbook torrential precipitation along the central and northern West coast. No SSW, but EP flux has been a bit more poleward lately, with stratosphere flux finally changing and pointing north, though most of the propagation of this last warming will be equatorward. Strato PV will remain somewhat weak, so it looks ok for some weak or even moderate high latitude ridging for very late Jan and early Feb, though it will probably be short lived (like I said before in another post, no more than 2-3 weeks tops). One thing to note, is that the -PNA looks short lived, as the trough apparently splits, with a s/w digging south and then sweeping east, and the bulk of the trough retrograding W. That would yield a pattern similar to what we have had most of the winter, with the coldest anomalies near the S Rockies and the C and S Plains And there you have it, another cutoff low down into MX and then TX it looks... no real cold air associated with it, though, but looks like another rain maker for TX, with some severe weather along as well...Looks like the PNA will rise a bit, and the cold looks to come thanks to the Pacific, as the Atlantic remains dreadful still. Cold anomalies will probably be greater for the central portion of the CONUS, but this time the eastern third might have some "training" cold waves, and not the "once in a blue moon" rogue cold this winter has been characterized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Speaking of Seattle/Washington. For anyone interested, probably one of the highest quality looping webcams you will find. The webcam is at Hood Canal in Puget Sound looking towards the Olympic Range. This will be fun to watch the next week. http://www.drdale.com/cam/ I remember one in late January 1972 for Seattle. If I recall that was a Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 when is this pattern change to big -NAO, blizzards for east coast happening Feb 10 and beyond? Unfortunately, for those counting on a cold and snowy February, I suspect there will be additional disappointment. Analogs coming up most frequently for me based on the recent data are 1956, 1976, and even 1999. I suspect 1999 is overdone relative to what I think will happen in February 2012, but the coast-to-coast warm scenario is one that I'm not able to discount just yet. Ironically, a composite with the 1956, 1976, and 1999 anomalies is pretty close to the 1/19 run of the CFSv2 for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Unfortunately, for those counting on a cold and snowy February, I suspect there will be additional disappointment. Analogs coming up most frequently for me based on the recent data are 1956, 1976, and even 1999. I suspect 1999 is overdone relative to what I think will happen in February 2012, but the coast-to-coast warm scenario is one that I'm not able to discount just yet. Ironically, a composite with the 1956, 1976, and 1999 anomalies is pretty close to the 1/19 run of the CFSv2 for February. Just wanted to say thanks Don for all the hard work you put towards providing us with this data. Also would say as far as the first half or so of February goes I'd agree, cold fans aren't going to be all that happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 per weeklies Week 1 torch Week 2 +3 in PHL--but cooler than week 1 Week 3--PNA but coast to coast torch except for mid Atantic and South east lol Week 4- PNA/-NAO and cold in east per adam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Unfortunately, for those counting on a cold and snowy February, I suspect there will be additional disappointment. Analogs coming up most frequently for me based on the recent data are 1956, 1976, and even 1999. I suspect 1999 is overdone relative to what I think will happen in February 2012, but the coast-to-coast warm scenario is one that I'm not able to discount just yet. Ironically, a composite with the 1956, 1976, and 1999 anomalies is pretty close to the 1/19 run of the CFSv2 for February. I disagree based on what I feel are tell-tale signs from the sun-earth system interaction, I guess we'll see. I'm not sure if there are any viable analogs to this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Signs continue to point to at least a normal Feb temp wise in the East and stormy. -NAO is going to help . If we don't have that we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A deep cut off southern cyclone continues to be advertised via guidance. My hunch is the main weather headline in the medium range will be the severe weather threat as we head toward the 24th- 26th time frame for the S Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A deep cut off southern cyclone continues to be advertised via guidance. My hunch is the main weather headline in the medium range will be the severe weather threat as we head toward the 24th- 26th time frame for the S Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... I agree, Steve. This event will probably be the most significant event during the advertised timeframe. The models have been quite persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A deep cut off southern cyclone continues to be advertised via guidance. My hunch is the main weather headline in the medium range will be the severe weather threat as we head toward the 24th- 26th time frame for the S Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... 50/50 chance we'll be running WSR on the wave in the Pacific 22/00Z that will evolve into this event. Decent model agreement but the 06Z GFS is the outlier of the major global models, moving the wave along instead of cutting it off like the others. We have very limited hours this year due to budget concerns but with little happening it might be worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 50/50 chance we'll be running WSR on the wave in the Pacific 22/00Z that will evolve into this event. Decent model agreement but the 06Z GFS is the outlier of the major global models, moving the wave along instead of cutting it off like the others. We have very limited hours this year due to budget concerns but with little happening it might be worth it. Awesome news and I was hoping WSR would be considered. Thanks for that information, ohleary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 HPC morning update: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 743 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 VALID 12Z TUE JAN 24 2012 - 12Z FRI JAN 27 2012 CHANGES WILL BE OCCURRING AT HIGHER LATITUDES THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP VORTEX IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REFORMS CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF NORTH AMERICA. THE EXPECTED LATITUDE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SHOULD KEEP SYSTEMS PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDES/LOWER 48 UNITED STATES. A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PROGRESSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHIFTS THE QUASI-ZONAL PACIFIC JET STREAM NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA BACK TO THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SHOULD ALLOW ENERGY/TROUGHING TO DIG DOWNSTREAM INTO THE PLAINS. EARLY ON..00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN COMPROMISE WITH THE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO CANADA. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE GUIDANCE CONVERGES TO SOME DEGREE WITH TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE THE MODELS DIVERGE ONCE MORE...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF DROPPING A DEEP CYCLONE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE THE 00Z GFS KICKS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD. BOTH CAMPS HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO AVOID BEING DISMISSED. BIASES IN THE GUIDANCE COME INTO PLAY AT THIS POINT IN THE DECISION AS THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF CAN BE TOO SLOW TO PROGRESS SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HOURS/FIVE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE WHILE THE GFS CAN BE TOO QUICK WITH SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES. LATEST 06Z GFS HAS GONE TO A CONSIDERABLY SLOW SOLUTION AS IT JOINS THE CMC/UKMET/ECMWF CAMP BUT MAY BE NOW TOO SLOW. THIS HAS LED HPC UPDATED MORNING PROGS TO A 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS SOLUTION THRU THE PERIOD ALLOWING A SOUTHERN STREAM CYCLONE TO FORM IN TEXAS BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW ENG COAST BY DAY 7 FRI. POTENTIAL MDT TO HVY SNOW EVENT FRO ERN MN/NRN WI AND TEH NRN PENINSULA OF MI MONDAY. HEAVY PCPN WILL CONTINUE IN THE CA SIERRA EARLY PERIOD THEN SHIFT NWD INTO B.C. AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND COASTAL RANGES AFTER BY WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP FOR EASTERN TX MID WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Awesome news and I was hoping WSR would be considered. Thanks for that information, ohleary. Things looked good so I tasked them to fly 22/00Z. Might be sending them out for the next few days too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Things looked good so I tasked them to fly 22/00Z. Might be sending them out for the next few days too. Great news. It does appear this system will be worth watching closely. The GFS/Canadian severe progs are very concerning. All the additional data that can be gained will be most helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Great news. It does appear this system will be worth watching closely. The GFS/Canadian severe progs are very concerning. All the additional data that can be gained will be most helpful. I had put a long psot together on the rain threat for tx and LA but the site crashed and I lost the post. I'm too lazy to retype it. The PWs are forecast to be 1.50 or greater across TX in a region where the mflus is forecast to be greater than 3 SD along a region where the 250 flow is forecast to be diffuent along the right rear entrance region of the jet streak, That usually gives you 5 inches providing the model forecast is in the ballpark, that's still a big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I disagree based on what I feel are tell-tale signs from the sun-earth system interaction, I guess we'll see. I'm not sure if there are any viable analogs to this year? Can you show us these tell tale signs that pin point monthly temperatures for the CONUS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The medium range guidance remains very persistent suggesting a deep cut off low develops in Northern Mexico, west of the Big Bend Region bringing copious heavy rains and severe weather chances across the S Plains and the Lower Mississippi during the January 24-26 period before ejecting NE affecting the EC. PW's near 1.7, which are rather impressive for January, will provide deep moisture and favorable upper level dynamics will set the stage for a severe weather event. The HPC has tasked WSR for 22/00Z with additional missions possible from HI and AK. There does remain some uncertainty of potential phasing with the northern stream energy as the cyclone ejects NE. My hunch is this cyclone will be the main weather headline in the coming week with wide spread rains and storminess for the eastern 1/2 of the US. For those interested, we have a topic in the Central/Western sub forum... http://www.americanw...-january-23-26/ NOUS42 KNHC 201815 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0115 PM EST FRI 20 JANUARY 2012 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2012 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-051 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 A. P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 22/0000Z B. NOAA9 04WSC TRACK56 C. 21/1930Z D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 22/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION... P38/ DROP 9 (34.5N 178.3E)/ 23/0000Z. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE C-130J MISSION FOR 24/0000Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Not sure if this should be posted here or in the central/west forum....but how much of a dent have/will these storms put into the drought conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Not sure if this should be posted here or in the central/west forum....but how much of a dent have/will these storms put into the drought conditions? Depatures are still in the +20 range, in the rainfall department for most of Texas. There are a few expections such as HOU which is +4 after the January 9th event while IAH is -0.9 for the year 2012. That said, the active southern jet since November has brought some improvement across the region with OK and LA no longer is drought conditions. Texas will need more of these type events to end our multi year drought that began after Hurricane Ike in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Just gave the final thumbs-up for tonights NOAA G-IV flight. A good case as it's a fairly major event and the models evolve it into some kind of east coast event after drenching Texas. No flights for 1/23 but maybe one for 1/24 for a PacNW moderate/heavy precip event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Just gave the final thumbs-up for tonights NOAA G-IV flight. A good case as it's a fairly major event and the models evolve it into some kind of east coast event after drenching Texas. No flights for 1/23 but maybe one for 1/24 for a PacNW moderate/heavy precip event. The 12Z GFS would certainly agree with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It looks like the underperforming -PNA helped out with our snowfall today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It looks like the underperforming -PNA helped out with our snowfall today. It might also make a difference whether the first week in February is, on average, cold in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 22nd-23rd also starting to look a little interesting in the MS Valley/Ohio Valley area. The setup is synoptically favorable, but moisture is a little borderline with models progging dews in the mid-upper 50's (maybe a little better south of the OV) but we had about 10 tornadoes in IN/KY with those dews a couple days ago. Something to keep an eye on anyway. Setup still looking favorable and SPC is getting bullish with a mention of a possible upgrade to moderate risk tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Looking ahead to the first week in February, the GFS ensemble forecast for the Arctic Oscillation provides a great deal of complexity. There are two major clusters of ensemble members. One cluster is somewhat negative. The other is strongly negative (-3.000 to -2.000). Assuming the other teleconnection forecasts e.g., PNA are reasonably accurate, the former would tend to promote a warm outcome in the East. The latter would provide a cold outcome in the East. In trying to draw up my map based on the expected teleconnection indices for the 2/1-7/2012 period (which I'll do tomorrow), I might need to choose from among one of those clusters. Of course, I'm hoping that the ensembles are in better agreement tomorrow. Several pieces of evidence might provide some insight and, unfortunately, they would favor the higher cluster: 1. The ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles are not nearly as aggressive in promoting a strongly negative AO. 2. The long predominant AO+ regime is decaying after reaching a high point in December. The following are the % of days on which the AO was negative: November: 6.7% December: 3.2% January: 19.0% Indeed, this decay of the AO+ regime is part of the reason I expect the AO to average negative to neutral in February. 3. The ECMWF Ensembles forecast that the MJO will be in Phases 5 and 6 in early February (amplitude < 1). Since 1975, all February cases had a mean AO of -.075 with a standard deviation of 1.91. An AO of -2.000 would be just over 1 standard deviation from the mean and would be in the bottom 16.5% of cases. An AO of -3.000 would be more than 1.5 standard deviations from the mean. A value of -3.000 would be in the lowest 6.5% of cases. Hence, my guess is that the GFS ensembles are probably overdone assuming that the MJO is in Phase 5 or 6 (amplitude < 1) during the first week in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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