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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV : (Not During Storms) OBS Discussion/Banter Thread


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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year weenies!

N.J. snowstorm on the way for New Year holiday?

Published: Saturday, December 24, 2011, 10:00 AM Updated: Saturday, December 24, 2011, 5:08 PM

A motorist plunges through an unplowed street in Lawrenceville today after heavy snow fell overnight. Jan 27Another major snow storm batters New Jerseygallery (38 photos)

  • 9226614-thumb_square.jpg
  • 9226613-thumb_square.jpg
  • 9226611-thumb_square.jpg
  • 9226610-thumb_square.jpg
  • 9226528-thumb_square.jpg

A warm weather pattern will leave New Jersey with a green Christmas this year, but potential changes are on the horizon and the lead-up to the new year could be stormy — maybe even snowy.

Christmas Day is expected to be pleasant, with partly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-40s, according to the National Weather Service. And after a month of above-average temperatures, there won’t be a snowflake to be found in the Garden State.

But all of that could change by New Year’s Day, according to Accuweather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity.

"I think next week we’ll get some opportunities" for snow in the Northeast, Margusity said. "I think we’ve got to watch around the 30th — the pattern’s going to start to change."

The reason for the potential snowy shift resides in Greenland.

A semi-permanent low-pressure system near Greenland, part of a weather phenomenon known as Northern Atlantic Oscillation, could weaken over the next several days. This is commonly referred to as the oscillation "going negative."

As it does, it may allow a high-pressure system over eastern Canada to ease southward, pushing colder air into the Northeast and potentially slowing down and steering storms up the East Coast.

If that happens, snow could hit New Jersey as the year ends.

"That was the trick for the (2010 Boxing Day) blizzard," Margusity said. "It’s like clockwork with some of these indexes. When the NAO goes negative, you get snow in the Northeast."

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Don't get me started on this...

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year weenies!

N.J. snowstorm on the way for New Year holiday?

Published: Saturday, December 24, 2011, 10:00 AM Updated: Saturday, December 24, 2011, 5:08 PM

A motorist plunges through an unplowed street in Lawrenceville today after heavy snow fell overnight. Jan 27Another major snow storm batters New Jerseygallery (38 photos)

  • 9226614-thumb_square.jpg
  • 9226613-thumb_square.jpg
  • 9226611-thumb_square.jpg
  • 9226610-thumb_square.jpg
  • 9226528-thumb_square.jpg

A warm weather pattern will leave New Jersey with a green Christmas this year, but potential changes are on the horizon and the lead-up to the new year could be stormy — maybe even snowy.

Christmas Day is expected to be pleasant, with partly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-40s, according to the National Weather Service. And after a month of above-average temperatures, there won’t be a snowflake to be found in the Garden State.

But all of that could change by New Year’s Day, according to Accuweather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity.

"I think next week we’ll get some opportunities" for snow in the Northeast, Margusity said. "I think we’ve got to watch around the 30th — the pattern’s going to start to change."

The reason for the potential snowy shift resides in Greenland.

A semi-permanent low-pressure system near Greenland, part of a weather phenomenon known as Northern Atlantic Oscillation, could weaken over the next several days. This is commonly referred to as the oscillation "going negative."

As it does, it may allow a high-pressure system over eastern Canada to ease southward, pushing colder air into the Northeast and potentially slowing down and steering storms up the East Coast.

If that happens, snow could hit New Jersey as the year ends.

"That was the trick for the (2010 Boxing Day) blizzard," Margusity said. "It’s like clockwork with some of these indexes. When the NAO goes negative, you get snow in the Northeast."

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Maybe WE should be making road trips to YOU this winter!

Not so far...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LKN/CF6EKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                         STATION:   ELKO NV
                                         MONTH:     DECEMBER
                                         YEAR:      2011
                                         LATITUDE:   40 49 N                   
                                         LONGITUDE: 115 47 W                   

 TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND 
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                    12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

1  39  11  25  -4  40   0 0.00  0.0    0 14.2 35  30   M    M   0        46  20
2  42   3  23  -5  42   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.1 24 330   M    M   4        31 330
3  34   4  19  -9  46   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.3 14 310   M    M   1 8      17 270
4  34   8  21  -7  44   0    T    T    0  9.0 24 330   M    M   7 8      31 320
5  31   0  16 -12  49   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.9 13 200   M    M   1        14 200
6  37   3  20  -7  45   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.8 15 210   M    M   0        20 220
7  42   1  22  -5  43   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.7  8  60   M    M   0        10  90
8  45   5  25  -2  40   0 0.00  0.0    0  1.7  8  40   M    M   0         9  80
9  45   5  25  -2  40   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.4  8  70   M    M   0        14 110
10  47   5  26   0  39   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.4  8  80   M    M   0         9  80
11  42   6  24  -2  41   0 0.00  0.0    0  1.5  7  90   M    M   0         8 100
12  40  10  25  -1  40   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.9  9  80   M    M   1 8      10  80
13  40   5  23  -3  42   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.3 10 210   M    M   0 8      12 210
14  40   7  24  -2  41   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.1 15 260   M    M   0 8      18 350
15  43  10  27   1  38   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.0  8  90   M    M   1        10  90
16  41   4  23  -3  42   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.5 10  60   M    M   0        13  70
17  48   9  29   4  36   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.5  8  90   M    M   0         9  40
18  45   4  25   0  40   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.4  9 100   M    M   0        12 220
19  45  11  28   3  37   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.4 10  30   M    M   1        18 360
20  41   6  24  -1  41   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.4 14 220   M    M   0        16 220
21  35   6  21  -4  44   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.5  3 280   M    M   2         3 270
22  32   0  16  -9  49   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.8 13 230   M    M   0        16 210
23  38  -1  19  -6  46   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.8 13 260   M    M   0        14 260
24  41   0  21  -4  44   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.2  9  80   M    M   0         9  70
================================================================================
SM  967  122      1009   0    T     T     95.8          M       18              
================================================================================
AV 40.3  5.1                               4.0 FASTST   M    M   1    MAX(MPH)  
                                MISC ---->  # 35  30               # 46   20   

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LKN/CLIEKO

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
               VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                 NORMAL             
..................................................................
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
 YESTERDAY        0.0           9.2  1955   0.3   -0.3      0.0     
 MONTH TO DATE    T                         7.3   -7.3      9.3     
 SINCE DEC 1      T                         7.3   -7.3      9.3     
 SINCE JUL 1      3.0                      13.0  -10.0     22.7     

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Its Henry. We know what to expect, Ray! The question is, will "Snowloween" be the only snow I will see this winter?

Its possible.

Maybe WE should be making road trips to YOU this winter!

Merry Christmas!

I don't really blame Margusity for what he said (except for -NAO meaning snow like clockwork...that was dumb)

The headline writer was patently misleading readers though...

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Well at least its near normal temp wise there. I hate to think how far above normal TTN is for Dec. I think its +6 or more!

Actually its -3.6 at EKO. Which honestly sucks. Cold and dry is just waste. Might as well be warm. Kinda weird though, with all those mornings in the single digits and highs around 40.

TTN is +6.5. Grass is nice and green.

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12z GFS is trying to cook something up 192-204. Merry christmas to all!

Yup, looks like a Miller B.

The 12z GEFS loos at least somewhat favorable for colder/snowier, despite the continued lack of Greenland blocking.

12zGFSEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA192.gif

The Euro ensemble mean isn't on Allan's site yet (I think it updates around 4:30) but I can say that the GFS op and ECM op at 180 look remarkably similar at h5 for being 6 and a half days out anyway. The ECM's energy is digging just slightly more, but the difference is slight (like 150 miles in the placement of the 552 dam contour in IL, for instance).

I know it's Christmas, but if tombo is lurking I'd be curious to see what the Euro does beyond 180. Cold air is around, but not entrenched, so let's see what we can get.

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Yup, looks like a Miller B.

The 12z GEFS loos at least somewhat favorable for colder/snowier, despite the continued lack of Greenland blocking.

12zGFSEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA192.gif

The Euro ensemble mean isn't on Allan's site yet (I think it updates around 4:30) but I can say that the GFS op and ECM op at 180 look remarkably similar at h5 for being 6 and a half days out anyway. The ECM's energy is digging just slightly more, but the difference is slight (like 150 miles in the placement of the 552 dam contour in IL, for instance).

I know it's Christmas, but if tombo is lurking I'd be curious to see what the Euro does beyond 180. Cold air is around, but not entrenched, so let's see what we can get.

From the NYC thread, the Euro track is a little too much of a coastal hugger for comfort, but there's definitely more potential then compared to what we've had.

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Merry Christmas to all in the E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD and Ray Martin areas!

Glad to have a nice day today to allow my wife and I to do some travelling (we are in Lebanon, PA now visiting her family...her sister is about to have a baby, which will likely happen by this evening).

Wow. Extra special day for you/your family.

Very enjoyable day today with the sunshine and mild temperatures.

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With the Euro track Ray described, I find it hard to believe that it really spits out 5-10" as Rob G says.

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&topicid=238&groupid=8&Itemid=179

He was really good when he was on TV in Philly, but he's been off his mark lately.

But wow, a snowy winter classic would be epic.

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