Post-Tropical Cyclone 01M

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Interesting... and different.

[wxmx]

I think it's a TS now...or something

TXMM21 KNES 071819
TCSMED

A.  01M (NONAME)

B.  07/1800Z

C.  41.1N

D.  5.3E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
LONG ENOUGH AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FOR A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

   NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[WhiteoutWX]

I'm assuming there have been storms here in the past... do they name them?

[wxmx]

I'm assuming there have been storms here in the past... do they name them?

They are rare, but have happened in the past. And no, they haven't get named before.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Bump for classification:

TXMM21 KNES 080021 TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 08/0000Z

C. 41.4N

D. 5.4E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...1930Z SSMIS PASS SUGGESTS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE TO BE PRESENT. GT 6/10 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET = 2.5 AND PT = 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/1930Z 41.1N 5.5E SSMIS

...GUILLOT

[am19psu]

Does anyone even have responsibility for the Med? Meteo France?

[tmagan]

Was just on the SSD page and when I saw Mediterranean Sea next to a classification I did a double take.

[tmagan]

http://www.sat24.com/zoomloop.aspx?ir=true&region=eu&lat=42&lon=8

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Does anyone even have responsibility for the Med? Meteo France?

They're warning on it, but it seems like no one is in charge officially. There are definitely enough characteristics for this to be classified.

[phil882]

Not bad....

http://www.meteo.fr/reso40/anim_radar6.htm

[turtlehurricane]

Wow! Certainly a tad hybrid, but still remarkable for the Mediterranean.

It would be nice to see a loop of the days prior to this to see what the incipient disturbance was. I imagine a cold-core system sat over the sea for awhile and eventually went warm-core like we see in the Atlantic, but I wonder how long it took.

[Sickman]

Ohh-kay...

What kind of SST's are we looking at here?

[phil882]

Wow! Certainly a tad hybrid, but still remarkable for the Mediterranean.

It would be nice to see a loop of the days prior to this to see what the incipient disturbance was. I imagine a cold-core system sat over the sea for awhile and eventually went warm-core like we see in the Atlantic, but I wonder how long it took.

There seems to be a small inner core circulation that is rotating around a larger broader upper level disturbance. This bears a lot of similarities to Olga back in 2001 which went on to become a 80 knot hurricane in the Atlantic has it looped several times within an upper level low.

From Sardinia at 9z 11/7

Here is a 24 hour loop... click on the radar thumnail

http://www.eurometeo...mp_SAR-homepage

Ohh-kay...

What kind of SST's are we looking at here?

Only around 21 degrees Celcius or so.

Here is the telling thing... huge 3 degree Celsius positive anomaly right over the center. Certainly aiding in TCG at this time. There have been plenty of systems that have undergone tropical transitions under sub 26 degree Celsius waters... as long as the upper atmosphere is anomalously cold (as in the case of a cold core upper level low 01M is embedded in) the gradient between SSTs and the ambient atmosphere is enough to allow robust convective development given low vertical wind shear.

[phil882]

Some More Interesting Loops:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/EVIEW/SEGMENT14/

http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang=fr&satdir=/sat_europe/&satname=alleurope_vis&satext=gif&num=24&zero=1&title=VIS%20EUR%20Animation

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

TXMM21 KNES 081225

TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 08/1200Z

C. 42.1N

D. 6.2E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 6...AND ESPECIALLY

12 HOURS. CIRCULATION IS LARGELY EXPOSED EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION

TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT MEASURES 3/10 ON

LOG10 SPIRAL. DT IS 2.0. MET AND PT ARE UNDEFINED BECAUSE SYSTEM WAS

NOT TROPICAL 24 HOURS AGO. FT IS BASED ON TRADITIONAL DVORAK CONSTRAINTS

LIMITING CHANGES IN FT TO 1/2 T NUMBER OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...TURK

[bluewave]

From ESTOFEX:

http://www.estofex.org/

****** Tropical storm 01M/99L ******

SUMMARY: 8th NOV. 2011, 1200 UTC

-----------------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...42.1N 6.2E

ABOUT 84 NM...156 KM SE OF MARSEILLE

ABOUT 114 NM...210 KM W OF AJACCIO, CORSICA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...46 MPH...74 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ROUGHLY 10KM/H TO THE EASTNORTHEAST

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... BETWEEN 1000-1005 hPa

UPDATE 12UTC: The new update of SAB now indicates some weakening, as deep convection failed to re-develop mainly in the western part. WV imagery also indicates some dry air intrusion from higher levels, which gradually raises concern about how pronounced the warm core structure is right now. However, intense DMC evolved in the last hour or so mainly in the eastern/northern part and starts to wrap around the center. UW CIMMS also hints on somewhat augmented shear, which should remain steady during the next few hours. The cyclone now starts to increase its forward speed and moves more to the ENE to NE. This may be the result of an upper wave, which passes by to the west. Models want to stall this feature just SW of Liguria as the upper waves moves off to the north later tonight. The risk for strong downpours and gusty winds may increases over far SE France and probably along the W-Ligurian coast during the following hours.

UPDATE 06UTC: The center of the cyclone again became better organized with the strongest convection now in the southern and eastern part (maybe enhanced by the jet streak, which passes by to the SE). Some slow movement to the east occurred but despite a further consolidating cyclone, latest reports do not indicate any strengthening (also assisted by ASCAT data). No further surface reports were available.

NOTE 1: Despite issuing new ESTOFEX updates, this part of the outlook will be updated when new informations become available. Please check this table for further updates during the upcoming 24 hours.

NOTE 2: ESTOFEX is not responsible for forecasting any tropical storm activity. This is just an additional information and therefore captured as a "side-note". For more informations, please contact the following address of the Satellite Analysis Branch (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/2011/bulletins/archive.html,[sAB]).

As of 18 UTC (7th Nov.), the Satellite Analysis Branch upgraded the depression over the W-Mediterranean to "Tropical system 01M", as convection persisted for an adequate time atop the center. Since then, deep convection weakened somewhat with warming cloud tops next to the center. Nevertheless, very good banding is now present in all quadrants with good outflow atop (especially to the NE, pointing to a 30 m/s 300 hPa jet). A Dvorak number-pressure relation was used for the pressure classification (also at 21Z at the 7th, a ship at position N 41°36' , E 6°06' reported a pressure of 1005.0 mb with 38kt winds from 160°). The final wind strength reflects the intensity of the latest SAB guidance.

There remains some time left for further intensification, before geopotential heights slowly increase during the end of the forecast period. We would not be surprised to see another flare-up of DMC along the center due to the convective cycle of those features (peaking during the morning hours). The N-outflow may weaken somewhat as the upper jet to the north weakens, but at the same time the southern outflow channel could take profit of a 300 hPa streak, which crosses Sicily during the forecast from SW to NE. SSTs remain at or above 20°C, whereas 500 hPa temperatures gradually warm up 1-2K until 06Z. Combining all those effects, some further organization/strengthening is forecast if this system can support more convective bursts along the center before overall conditions become somewhat less favorable during the night hours onwards.

The storm motion is handeled badly by the models...without surprise. 01M is captured in a very weak steering flow and most models now show a system, which meanders around between the Balearic Islands and Corsica/Sardinia. In any case, residents along the adjacent coasts should keep a close eye on the further development of this feature as bands of strong convection may bring heavy downpours next to gusty winds.

A level 1 was issued not for the system itself (as we do not forecast tropical cyclone activity), but for the showers/thunderstorms, which accompany that cyclone. The level 1 covers heavy rainfall and strong to isolated severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

... Sicily, Ionian Sea and S-Italy ...

A 25 m/s mid-level streak enters the area of interest from the SW during the start of the forecast and shifts to the NE while weakening. This causes a rapid increase of the 0-6km bulk shear to the order of 20 m/s and more. An overlap of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE and aforementioned shear assist in a sector, where organized multicells/isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be the main hazard with those storms. The set-up supports the development of a cluster of showers/thunderstorms over S-Italy/N-Ionian Sea, which may affect parts of Albania with heavy rainfall during the night. Hence the level 1 was expanded well to the east.

... Parts of Portugal ...

A frontal boundary is forecast to affect far W-Portugal after 00Z onwards. A plume of subtropical air is advected towards Portugal ahead of this front as sampled by latest MIMIC-TPW data. As mid-levels start to cool down atop that moisture tongue, instability increases with 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. At the same time, a surface trough strengthens just west of Portugal and assists in a backing wind field. This results in augmented directional shear (combined with ageostrophic deflection onshore) and hence thunderstorms may gain some organization. There still exist uncertainties how fast the front will move onshore, but current thinking is that at least a few storms occur before 06Z. Marginal hail and strong wind gusts accompany those storms. An isolated tornado event along the coast is possible.

[AlexD]

It is going to make 'landfall' in France?

[Derecho!]

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 6...AND ESPECIALLY

12 HOURS.

Bleah...the Med tropical season has been so lame this year. Rainstorm was right.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

TXMM21 KNES 081827

TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 08/1800Z

C. 42.8N

D. 6.5E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION...ALBEIT RELATIVELY SHALLOW...HAS WRAPPED

ITSELF AROUND MUCH MORE OF THE CENTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE INCREASED

CURVATURE MEASURES 6/10 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.0. PT

AGREES WHILE MET IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION

IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CENTERS MAY NOT

BE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER

TO THE SW THAN THE POSITION GIVEN ABOVE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...TURK

[Roger Smith]

The storm (which I would say is a sub-tropical low given the SST and thickness environment) is drifting north and is likely to drift west later tonight (local time) perhaps making a grazing landfall near Ile Levant off the French coast, but I suspect it may try to make a complete cyclonic loop in the northwest Med before filling. Wind gusts to 140 km/hr have been reported at exposed locations on the French coast and this region was already waterlogged from days of rain.

I can recall seeing one or two other storms that looked marginally tropical but further south and east around the central part of the Med between Sicily and Crete.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

The storm (which I would say is a sub-tropical low given the SST and thickness environment) is drifting north and is likely to drift west later tonight (local time) perhaps making a grazing landfall near Ile Levant off the French coast, but I suspect it may try to make a complete cyclonic loop in the northwest Med before filling. Wind gusts to 140 km/hr have been reported at exposed locations on the French coast and this region was already waterlogged from days of rain.

I can recall seeing one or two other storms that looked marginally tropical but further south and east around the central part of the Med between Sicily and Crete.

This is closer to tropical. TC vs. STC is not defined by either SST or thickness environment, but rather the phase diagram, possible fronts, proximity to cold core upper lows, etc.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

TXMM21 KNES 090023 TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 09/0000Z

C. 42.6N

D. 6.4E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T2.0/3.0/W1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...01M HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SWIR SUGGESTS LLCC HAS BECOME DECOUPLED TO THE S AND E OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ESSENTIALLY ALL CONVECTION HAD DISSIPATED, YIELDING A DT OF 0.0. MET = 1.5 AND PT = 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE IN FT OF ONLY 1.0 IN SIX HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...GUILLOT