winterymix Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 12Z NAM shows a turnover at sunset Sunday night along Rt. I-81. With CAA, this turnover marches east throughout the night. Mid-Atlantic discussion here. Most wintry precipitant will fall from midnight Monday AM to mid-morning Monday as down sloping dries out mid-levels. Before anyone gets too excited, the 12Z GFS briefly dry-slots the mid-Atlantic. NAM tease: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 where do you see the GFS dry slotting the Mid Atlantic. It looks like DC area gets .1 to .25 of frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 He's talking about the mid week no storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 where do you see the GFS dry slotting the Mid Atlantic. It looks like DC area gets .1 to .25 of frozen True, the NAM keeps the Sunday-Monday precip. going while the GFS shuts it off for a while and then regenerates as snow showers on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 He's talking about the mid week no storm Just to be clear, I was looking at the 700 mb charts from the 12Z GFS and it does show a massive dryslot late in the day Sunday (42hrs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Sweet, mangled flurries. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 18Z NAM at 54 hrs bye, bye orange crops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It would seem that the 18z NAM looks even a little better for some snow showers Sun night into Monday in NVA. Looks better at all levels, as far as I can see. Maybe somebody with more expertise can chime with their thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Looked like the NAM develops a secondary storm. It would seem that the 18z NAM looks even a little better for some snow showers Sun night into Monday in NVA. Looks better at all levels, as far as I can see. Maybe somebody with more expertise can chime with their thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It would seem that the 18z NAM looks even a little better for some snow showers Sun night into Monday in NVA. Looks better at all levels, as far as I can see. Maybe somebody with more expertise can chime with their thoughts. It does. I posted something in Justin Berk's thread. The southern of the trough almost develops a second closed circulation that has lots of vorticity on the back side. I'd like to see the gfs do something similar but even if it doesn't it still supported the idea of a chance of some light snow or snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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