baroclinic_instability Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Ok, there is enough of a threat to start a thread with the next ejecting 4 corners low. Almost a Colorado Low, it doesn't take the classic track associated with true CO Lows (SW dive out of the Rockies followed by a NW curve), but it should pose a snow threat across the Front Range into Nebraska and portions of IA/MN. I am too lazy and tired to post maps tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 Ok here are a couple 500 charts. GFS (not shown) has been a consistent easterly outlier with a much weaker positive tilt wave ejecting into the plains while the CMC/NAM/ECM to varying degrees has ejected stronger waves with slightly more surface amplification and a more well defined deformation band. That deformation band will be the snow maker, and given the progged moisture fields, there will likely be some enhanced convective banding possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 GGEM & UKIE 0z 72hr 500/slp maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 00 GFS came more in line with the CMC/Euro runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 0z NAM takes the nice defo band right over DSM and central IA after dumping some snow in northwest KS/southern NE. just couldn't help yourself posting maps huh, Baro? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 00 GFS came more in line with the CMC/Euro runs It did, it finally caught a clue. You are on the edge as it currently stands, but there certainly is a threat for some wet snow. Going to be a tough forecast for much of IA as it is going to be a challenge as to exactly when the southern stream phases with the northern stream and begins advecting colder air into the CCB. SE MN into WI look better for more accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 0z NAM takes the nice defo band right over DSM and central IA after dumping some snow in northwest KS/southern NE. just couldn't help yourself posting maps huh, Baro? lol Ha I wasn't going to since I was tired, but I had to post something since it was a thread starter. 500 charts make me happy. Nice to see the GFS come around finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 It did, it finally caught a clue. You are on the edge as it currently stands, but there certainly is a threat for some wet snow. Going to be a tough forecast for much of IA as it is going to be a challenge as to exactly when the southern stream phases with the northern stream and begins advecting colder air into the CCB. SE MN into WI look better for more accumulating snow. Yep, pretty much what I was thinking. If this was a month later I'd be much more excited about the storm for my area, as it is the cold air is very marginal(Bufkit never even drops surface temps below 32) so its hard to get too worked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Looks like we could see our first measurable snow event tuesday night in Southeast Minnesota (Saint Charles). NWS calling for 2-4 inches. That might be a little generous but we should see our first flakes of the season!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Based on the most recent GFS and NAM it looks like the Rochester MN area will reach advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 Looks like we could see our first measurable snow event tuesday night in Southeast Minnesota (Saint Charles). NWS calling for 2-4 inches. That might be a little generous but we should see our first flakes of the season!! Welcome to the board, I am a fellow Minnesotan although I am in NE right now. We are definitely looking to grow our MN presence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 Yep, pretty much what I was thinking. If this was a month later I'd be much more excited about the storm for my area, as it is the cold air is very marginal(Bufkit never even drops surface temps below 32) so its hard to get too worked up. This is true, but the first snow threat of the season is always makes for an interesting event. Don't discount NAM/RGEM solutions under these scenarios...there will likely be some convective banding in that deformation band given the orientation of the upper jet streak and the moist frontal zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Based on the most recent GFS and NAM it looks like the Rochester MN area will reach advisory criteria. My first near miss of the season... Nice 1st event for se MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Advisory level event? Or not enough cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 My first near miss of the season... Nice 1st event for se MN. This is very very close to missing me. But it seems we have a slight shift to the west now with the GFS and NAM. Its going to be a nail biter. For fun I checked out the text extraction for the 12z NAM and it gives Albert Lea over 13 inches of snow haha some nice eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I am quite a newbie at this, but have always had an interest in weather. Do the 6z and 18z runs of the NAM and GFS carry significant merit if they show changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 224 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011 ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY... .A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBERT LEA TO RED WING TO CUMBERLAND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIX OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. MNZ078-085-093-WIZ015-016-023>028-080430- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0006.111109T0300Z-111109T1800Z/ GOODHUE-STEELE-FREEBORN-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN- CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RED WING...OWATONNA...ALBERT LEA... RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND... RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...DURAND... PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA 224 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY WET SNOW WITH SIX OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrekkerCC Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I am quite a newbie at this, but have always had an interest in weather. Do the 6z and 18z runs of the NAM and GFS carry significant merit if they show changes? A Pro Met can chime in for additional detail, but 06z and 18z runs can have merit. Both runs do not have the upper air observations ingested into them (only 12z and 00z runs do), but all other observations are ingested into the 06z and 18z runs. According to GFS performance stats, GFS performance between the four runs are fairly similar. (see: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html4x/acz5.html) If you note changes in the 06z or 18z runs, see if the 12z or 00z runs confirms the changes you note . Observe the atmosphere, since models will often have errors in their projections, and use the models to help guide you to get a sense of what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 A Pro Met can chime in for additional detail, but 06z and 18z runs can have merit. Both runs do not have the upper air observations ingested into them (only 12z and 00z runs do), but all other observations are ingested into the 06z and 18z runs. According to GFS performance stats, GFS performance between the four runs are fairly similar. (see: http://www.emc.ncep....tml4x/acz5.html) If you note changes in the 06z or 18z runs, see if the 12z or 00z runs confirms the changes you note . Observe the atmosphere, since models will often have errors in their projections, and use the models to help guide you to get a sense of what will happen. Cool, Thanks alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Really disappointed with the way the models trended east of me here in the Twin Cities. Could still get some flakes, but it looks like the accumulation will stay east. The 18z GFS does still have 0.23" liquid at KMSP...so there is still hope. (I hope I'm posting in the right forum for the KMSP area...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 A little surprised I'm under a Winter Storm watch but if 3-5+ inches of snow were to fall I'd be pretty dang pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 NWS calling for 3-5 here tursday night and another 1-2 wednesday morning. If the current NAM and GFS are close to correct the heaviest of the snow should fall during the coldest hours of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 0z NAM looks to be on the weak side compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 It doesn't look like much happened except near Pueblo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 The slow ejecting of the western trough was the death blow for much of the plains as the northern stream kicker wave resulted in a much more progressive solution and an east based solution. the GFS was right for the wrong reason as it was east all along, but it was east because it was a sheared out mess of a wave and a weak low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 The slow ejecting of the western trough was the death blow for much of the plains as the northern stream kicker wave resulted in a much more progressive solution and an east based solution. the GFS was right for the wrong reason as it was east all along, but it was east because it was a sheared out mess of a wave and a weak low. I guess I would be a lot more concerned about how it busted on such a short time frame, if it was supposed to hit my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 I guess I would be a lot more concerned about how it busted on such a short time frame, if it was supposed to hit my back yard. Eh I am not concerned. I wasn't even going to start a thread to begin with since I saw significant potential for the northern stream wave to pose a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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