cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Huge temp contrast over northern Illinois tomorrow morning on the St. Louis WRF. 62 near LOT to 34 near Galena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Very impressive shortwave moving into southwest Missouri now. Precip should really start to explode and fill in over the tri-state areas of IA/MO/IL over the next 3-6hrs. Much of this will eventually rotate northwestward into Iowa and develop that very impressive deformation zone that could dump 6"+ in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 going to be close tomorrow afternoon around here whether we see flakes or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Waukesha's far enough away from the lake and Milwaukee that the early season mitigating effects against cooling are less of a factor. I think there's a very good chance you see a few snow showers on the back side. The 0z NAM just plasters SW Wisconsin, this thing keeps creeping closer to giving us accumulating snow. May not happen, but what snow does fall probably will hang around for a night with lows in the upper 20s tomorrow night. The 850 temps look good in the afternoon tomorrow, at least for me. However, the 2m temps stay warm until well into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 going to be close tomorrow afternoon around here whether we see flakes or not. Gonna be a close call. Based on the NAM it looks like you'll be able to support snow shortly before 21z as the 540 thicknesses/850s/925s all crash through your area. NAM simulated reflectivity shows the tail end of the deform just about to leave your area around that time. Skilling's RPM showed wet snow mixing in as far east as Chicago, so chances are you guys should see some mixed flakes just before it shuts off. Of course if the RGEM right not only will you not see any snow, we won't here either. Looks like it may be an outlier though, as it's the only model that's so stingy on snow coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The 850 temps look good in the afternoon tomorrow, at least for me. However, the 2m temps stay warm until well into the night. MKX added in "New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible " all the way to the lake in the zone forecasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 The 850 temps look good in the afternoon tomorrow, at least for me. However, the 2m temps stay warm until well into the night. No doubt, the 850s are favorable for most of E Wisconsin tomorrow from 18z to 0z, and MKX just came out with an update saying there's a good chance of the rain changing to snow all the way to the lake, although amounts would remain under an inch in the eastern part of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 MKX added in "New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible " all the way to the lake in zone forecasts! No doubt, the 850s are favorable for most of E Wisconsin tomorrow from 18z to 0z, and MKX just came out with an update saying there's a good chance of the rain changing to snow all the way to the lake, although amounts would remain under an inch in the eastern part of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 04z RUC advertises very stout deformation zone over eastern Iowa into Wisconsin tomorrow morning. Heavy snowfall intensity looks pretty likely over that whole stretch. Question is how much will actually accumulate, and how narrow will the significant bands be. Gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 KCSQ 090535Z AUTO 36015G20KT 1SM SN OVC004 01/M01 A2996 RMK AO2 P0010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Something I didn't really realize till now is just how strong the winds will be while the snow is falling. RUC, NAM and other models are showing 20-25kts sustained surface winds in the heart of the deformation zone. With winds just off the surface near 50kts, heavy precipitation falling, and a strengthening surface low just to the east it's possible there could be near blizzard conditions in isolated bands of heavier snow. Winds will likely be gusting between 35-40mph in this area. The snow will be very wet, so the lack of blowing snow on the ground will reduce that impact some. At the least the very strong winds combined with heavy snowfall intensity should make for some interesting conditions over eastern Iowa into Wisconsin tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 It'll be interesting to see how this evolves after about 3am. I get the feeling this heavier snow band just to my NW is gonna be hard to pin down until it evolves. Its really neat to see the switch-over is only occurring in the heaviest rates...of course its typical in this set up. I can see a few spots coming out with a good 3-6 inches in a very narrow corridor from around Iowa City-Cedar Rapids-Prairie Du Chein-Stevens Point area. Question is though will the band be a more SSW-NNE band which could get it really close to the Quad City Metro or more SW-NE which keeps it largely out of my metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Something I didn't really realize till now is just how strong the winds will be while the snow is falling. RUC, NAM and other models are showing 20-25kts sustained surface winds in the heart of the deformation zone. With winds just off the surface near 50kts, heavy precipitation falling, and a strengthening surface low just to the east it's possible there could be near blizzard conditions in isolated bands of heavier snow. Winds will likely be gusting between 35-40mph in this area. The snow will be very wet, so the lack of blowing snow on the ground will reduce that impact some. At the least the very strong winds combined with heavy snowfall intensity should make for some interesting conditions over eastern Iowa into Wisconsin tomorrow. Oh ya, its gong to be ripping in the heart of the band for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 ...Question is though will the band be a more SSW-NNE band which could get it really close to the Quad City Metro or more SW-NE which keeps it largely out of my metro area. Looks like it will be more SSW/NNE to me, but it looks like it will stall for several hours just northwest of the QC before quickly sweeping through late morning. Looks like we'll get a period of moderate to heavy rainfall later tonight followed by a dry slot intrusion as the deform sets up and stalls just west/northwest of the QC. It then looks like we'll get a quick burst of wet snow as the tail end of the deform swings through late morning/noonish. May come down good for a short while, but probably won't last long enough to give us more than a quick wet dusting before it shuts down. Not bad for November 9th though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 0z ECMWF has a 1.00-1.25" QPF area in NW. IL between 12-18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 0z ECMWF has a 1.00-1.25" QPF area in NW. IL between 12-18z. Seems pretty far to the east compared to some of the other models. This would have the heaviest snow east of Dubuque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Seems pretty far to the east compared to some of the other models. This would have the heaviest snow east of Dubuque. where did you get that image? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 where did you get that image? lol http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Just select the model you want on the right side and then select what parameter you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 R/S line pushing eastward... OXV and TNU now with -SN. It's actually visible on radar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Just select the model you want on the right side and then select what parameter you want. I've been loving Wunderground this Fall so far, they come out relatively quick as well.. Hopefully these free Euro maps are here to stay.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I've been loving Wunderground this Fall so far, hopefully these free Euro maps are here to stay.. Yeah they really are nicely done. What an amazing difference between the free data from last year versus this year. The Euro maps on some of the free sites were extremely hard to read. Now here we're able to zoom in on stuff at a county level lmao. It sure would be great to have this last through the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Precip is really exploding north of LSX as the shortwave rounds the base of the trough. Even areas further north are seeing precip intensifying and increasing in coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 R/S line pushing eastward... OXV and TNU now with -SN. It's actually visible on radar too. Yep in both ref and vel, pretty neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Well enjoy the storm guys, catch you guys tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 TSSN between DSM and Ames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Grass is covered with snow... Looks sloppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 still all rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 0600 AM SNOW DES MOINES INT AIRPORT 41.53N 93.66W 11/09/2011 M3.7 INCH POLK IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS 0450 AM SNOW 3 ESE ADEL 41.60N 93.98W 11/09/2011 M4.0 INCH DALLAS IA NWS EMPLOYEE OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS 4 INCHES OF SNOW. NUMEROUS BRANCHES DOWN AND POWER HAS BEEN OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. 0350 AM SNOW WINTERSET 41.34N 94.02W 11/09/2011 M6.4 INCH MADISON IA LAW ENFORCEMENT MADISON COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THE CITIES OF MACKSBURG AND PATTERSON ARE NOW WITHOUT POWER. IN WINTERSET AN OFFICERS CAR IS STUCK IN THE PARKING LOT AT THE DISPATCH CENTER WHERE 6.4 INCHES OF SNOW WAS MEASURED AN HOUR AGO. RETRANSMISSION OF EARLIER REPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.