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November 7-10th Storm


wisconsinwx

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hey turtle over or under 2" here in madison

Probably under, but it should be the first accumulating snow of the year and that's the key point :snowman:

If it goes over this would become a real winter event, lots of people would be surprised. With a WWA just to the west for 2-4" it isn't that farfetched. Madison is kind of surrounded by that advisory but not in it.

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Probably under, but it should be the first accumulating snow of the year and that's the key point :snowman:

If it goes over this would become a real winter event, lots of people would be surprised. With a WWA just to the west for 2-4" it isn't that farfetched. Madison is kind of surrounded by that advisory but not in it.

It is probably partially due to the UHI effect. I'm sure that has as big an effect as any this early in the winter season when the ground is warm as it is.

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It is probably partially due to the UHI effect. I'm sure that has as big an effect as any this early in the winter season when the ground is warm as it is.

Not sure about you, but my zone forecast has a mention of rain/snow mix again for tomorrow. It also has snow showers on Thursday. Surface is going to be extremely warm but perhaps we will get some good cooling in the upper levels, at least W of Milwaukee.

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Not sure about you, but my zone forecast has a mention of rain/snow mix again for tomorrow. It also has snow showers on Thursday. Surface is going to be extremely warm but perhaps we will get some good cooling in the upper levels, at least W of Milwaukee.

Waukesha's far enough away from the lake and Milwaukee that the early season mitigating effects against cooling are less of a factor. I think there's a very good chance you see a few snow showers on the back side. The 0z NAM just plasters SW Wisconsin, this thing keeps creeping closer to giving us accumulating snow. May not happen, but what snow does fall probably will hang around for a night with lows in the upper 20s tomorrow night.

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Waukesha's far enough away from the lake and Milwaukee that the early season mitigating effects against cooling are less of a factor. I think there's a very good chance you see a few snow showers on the back side. The 0z NAM just plasters SW Wisconsin, this thing keeps creeping closer to giving us accumulating snow. May not happen, but what snow does fall probably will hang around for a night with lows in the upper 20s tomorrow night.

The winds aren't going to be coming straight of the lake when the changeover happens though so that should help a bit..

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So close for Madison to moneyman.. Lotta peeping outside if I lived there awaiting a hopefully quick changeover. What looked to be a possible 4-8"+ up north on the hunting grounds has changed to zero qpf on the NAM lol.. I'd be more pissed off up there than down here in the rain.

I don't think we're going to get much more rain, or any snow. Do you think there is like a dry air bubble over Milwaukee, b/c it kinda seems that way. I swear any time heavy rain comes in towards Milwaukee, it lightens up as it approaches. I can't think of what else it must be other than dry air. The exception was the late September upper level low that sat and spun. This looks like more of the same. Rain that is supposed to come from the SW is nowhere to be found atm.

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Man this is looking pretty good now for the Ottumwa/CR/Dubuque to near or west/northwest of Madison now. Definitely a lot better than what I saw before I left for work early this morning lol. Looks like a narrow swath of 4"+ somewhere in there. The deformation zone advertised on the new NAM is sick for eastern Iowa into Wisconsin tomorrow morning. Might even get a few flakes here the way it looks now. :popcorn:

Hey Hawkeye it looks like the RGEM had the right idea a few days ago lmao!

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I don't think we're going to get much more rain, or any snow. Do you think there is like a dry air bubble over Milwaukee, b/c it kinda seems that way. I swear any time heavy rain comes in towards Milwaukee, it lightens up as it approaches. I can't think of what else it must be other than dry air. The exception was the late September upper level low that sat and spun. This looks like more of the same. Rain that is supposed to come from the SW is nowhere to be found atm.

not expecting a whole lot tonight. tomorrow morning in to early afternoon prob our best rains and then watch the d-slut work us over probably.. not really the greatest track for us.

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not expecting a whole lot tonight. tomorrow morning in to early afternoon prob our best rains and then watch the d-slut work us over probably.. not really the greatest track for us.

You're right, it's amazing how slow this system has trended in the last 24 hours. Last night, I was thinking everything would be over by tomorrow morning, but the system appears to be crawling, considering the precip will be with us (or nearby) much of the day tomorrow.

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the new hotness

That run drops 6" just west of DBQ

With a deformation band like that there should be at least a narrow band of heavy accumulations somewhere. I'm really liking the Cedar Rapids to Manchester to Lancaster WI for the best shot at 6"+. Sort of a close call for the QC, but I'll be more than happy just to see the first few flakes.

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With a deformation band like that there should be at least a narrow band of heavy accumulations somewhere. I'm really liking the Cedar Rapids to Manchester to Lancaster WI for the best shot at 6"+. Sort of a close call for the QC, but I'll be more than happy just to see the first few flakes.

I think you will see plenty more than that tomorrow :snowman: don't know about it amounting to much but you will most likely see snow I think.

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I think you will see plenty more than that tomorrow :snowman: don't know about it amounting to much but you will most likely see snow I think.

I'm anxious to see Skilling's RPM model in a bit. I watched him at noon yesterday and it showed a much further east/stronger deformation zone much like what the latest models are showing. Looked like an outlier at the time, but it looks like it was the first model to latch on to this. Tonight's run should be interesting.

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thumbsupsmileyanim.gifURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

927 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN....

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURITONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHTAND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.WHILE MUCH OF THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR AS RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLYWEDNESDAY...AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN A CORRIDOR FROMDUBUQUE THROUGH THE DELLS TO PLAINFIELD WILL LIKELY SEE ACHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAYMORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF SNOW.WIZ047-063-068-091130-/O.EXB.KMKX.WW.Y.0014.111109T1200Z-111109T2100Z/GREEN LAKE-DANE-GREEN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BERLIN...MADISON...MONROE927 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CSTWEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AMTO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY.* TIMING...EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND GUSTING TO 30 MPH.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

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I'm anxious to see Skilling's RPM model in a bit. I watched him at noon yesterday and it showed a much further east/stronger deformation zone much like what the latest models are showing. Looked like an outlier at the time, but it looks like it was the first model to latch on to this. Tonight's run should be interesting.

Just watched, shows both of us getting some snow and then some flurries tomorrow morning.

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La Crosse

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

940 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

SHORT TERM

939 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THIS ONE IS TOUGH STUFF. STRUGGLING WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS

NEARLY 250 PERCENT NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVING INTO THE

FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR 40 AND WET-

BULB TEMPERATURES NOT FAR BEHIND...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED

TODAY. THIS MAY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT AREA...FROM NEAR KDBQ TO

KISW...AS DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO IMPACT THIS AXIS

MOST. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE THERMAL PROFILE ALLOW FOR

SNOW. FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE CONTINUED THE THEME OF THE FORECAST

WITH CHANGE OVER BY SUNRISE. SOME AREAS WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE

THAT...MAINLY ON RIDGES. FROM DMX FORECAST AREA...IT APPEARS ONLY

THE VERY INTENSE PRECIPITATION RATES CHANGE OVER TO A MIX...OR

INTO COOLING COLUMN SOUTH OF I-80.

HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TO DRASTICALLY

REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH EASTERN TRACK TO LOW.

THUS...HAVE TIGHTENED THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE FORECAST

GRIDS MUCH LIKE IS SEEN ON THE KDMX RADAR WITH A VERY SHARP

DEFORMATION EDGE TO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE RA/SN BAND. HAVE ALSO

MADE CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY...WHICH INCLUDES REMOVING TAYLOR

COUNTY WI AND FLOYD COUNTY IA. THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN

EDGE OF SNOWFALL WITH MAINLY LOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED. CONSIDERED

REMOVING WESTERN EDGE COUNTIES FROM CLARK WI TO CHICKASAW IA BUT

AM GOING TO ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. A BIT CONCERNED THE NWRN

MOST EXDGE WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST DEFORMATION AND INTENSITY TO

PRECIPITATION WHICH MAY DRIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP. WOULD THINK THIS

BAND OF COUNTIES SHOULD SEE 1-2 INCHES...BUT BECAUSE OF WATER

AVAILABLE AND UP SIDE...LEFT THEM IN ADVISORY. 09.00Z NAM REALLY

HITTING THE KDBQ-KISW AXIS HARD WITH 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW

ACCUMULATION PER INTERNAL MODEL SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS ACCOUNTS

FOR MELTING TOO. HAVE INCREASED GRANT COUNTY A BIT TO 3-4 INCH

RANGE. 09.00Z NAM ALSO A SMIDGE FURTHER WEST WITH LOW TRACK...MUCH

LIKE 09.00Z RUC.

Green Bay

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI

940 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

UPDATE

PCPN QUICKLY REDEVELOPING ALONG THE H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE

OVER EC WI THIS EVG. WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION

ZONE SETTING UP FROM KANSAS NEWD INTO CENTRAL IA. ENHANCED SOUTHERN

EDGE EXTRAPOLATES INTO C/NE WI...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING THE

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. EARLY

EVG TRENDS SUGGESTED THAT THE SFC LOW WAS TRACKING WEST OF THE

MODELS...WHICH ACCORDING TO OUR LOCAL WINTER WEATHER EXPERTS...IS

TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GEM AND HI-RES WRF-ARW EAST WERE

DOING THE BEST WITH THE WESTERN TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM CAME

IN WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION. A FARTHER WESTERN TRACK KEEPS

SIGNIFICANT QPF IN OUR FAR NW CWA...AT LEAST IN THE EAST PORTIONS

OF VILAS/ ONEIDA/LINCOLN COUNTIES...SO NO PLANS TO REMOVE

HEADLINES THERE. DID OPT TO DELAY THE START TIME UNTIL 12Z IN

THOSE COUNTIES...THOUGH. A WESTERN TRACK ALSO KEEPS THE WARM AIR

IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LKSHR AREAS LONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAVY

SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR

ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW IN WESTERN OUTAGAMIE/WINNEBAGO COUNTIES...

BUT THAT IS A DETAIL THAT I WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WRESTLE

WITH. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS A NEED TO EXPAND THE WARNING FARTHER

SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 40S AND DEW

POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SE OF A SHAWANO TO WISCONSIN RAPIDS

LINE...THINK THERE MAY STILL BE A MIX OVER MUCH OF THAT AREA FOR

THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TOTALS

BLO WARNING CRITERIA. MID SHIFT CAN ALSO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS.

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