daddylonglegs Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 6Z Nam is nuts... I'd say a slushy inch here... Probably going to be the only snow I get this year, so I'll enjoy it until it melts on Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 6Z Nam is nuts... I'd say a slushy inch here... Probably going to be the only snow I get this year, so I'll enjoy it until it melts on Thurs. Welcome back to the boards! I thought a slushy inch for La Crosse when they were riding the SE edge of the heavy snow band on those maps, but now I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Got drenched overnight with the first round. 1.46" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Got drenched overnight with the first round. 1.46" so far. nice long vectors in the river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Models were locked into this system for days, consistently showing last night's slug of moisture moving right up over southeast Iowa, but it didn't pan out. The moisture got shunted off to the east quickly so my area got much less than expected. I only got a few tenths of an inch. Because of the eastward push, it now appears the main low will pull out a bit farther east as well. QC nws is thinking complete change over to snow just a bit to my nw Wednesday morning, so I should at least see a decent snow shower with some whitening around the edges. Update: 12z NAM a little farther east again, now drags the deformation zone over my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Got drenched overnight with the first round. 1.46" so far. Wow! 0.71" in Madison as of 8 am. And this isn't even the real cyclone yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 Wow! 0.71" in Madison as of 8 am. And this isn't even the real cyclone yet... I don't think we'll even get a half inch in MKE with this first band. Really pooped out until this final mod-heavy rain band came through, and now the rain is motoring out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Too bad it's not a month later. Both the NAM and GFS have shifted the healthy deformation zone into central and even eastern Iowa. In December this would be a widespread 5-10+ inch snow across Iowa and Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Cyclone might see some snow if the 12z NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Eh, why not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Eh, why not... 12z GFS snow map is similar. The marginal thermals in Iowa leads to spotty snowfall totals. The deformation zone and sufficient cold air don't really come together until the system reaches Wisconsin... not surprising given the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 1.19" of rain here since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 12z ECMWF takes the SLP east of Chicago, putting cyclone and turtle'cane in the middle of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 12z ECMWF takes the SLP east of Chicago, putting Cyclone in the middle of the band. There have certainly been some rather significant shifts in the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 There have certainly been some rather significant shifts in the past 24 hours. Always fun to watch trends in late Fall. Not that it may mean much for the upcoming winter, but interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 12z ECMWF takes the SLP east of Chicago, putting cyclone and turtle'cane in the middle of the band. Yeah, getting wacky. The Euro snowfall maps show a good snow band developing from southeast Iowa, missing me to the southeast(seriously), up through far nw IL, through Madison, to Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 12z ECMWF takes the SLP east of Chicago, putting cyclone and turtle'cane in the middle of the band. Wow! I suppose a shift this big in a 2 wave system isn't that out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 incredible fog with visibilities under 1/4 mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Looks like we got our first se trender. Usually in nov/dec its further NW with the snow. .A sign of things to come? Probably not but I hadn't posted in awhile so I thought I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 Normally I would say a trend like this is good, but it just means being in no man's land. Congrats MSN and GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 thinking i might see a few flakes now, but not holding my breath for an inch....hello to all again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 thinking i might see a few flakes now, but not holding my breath for an inch....hello to all again Your chances are a heck of a lot better than this time 24 hours ago, and even then the chance for flakes mixing in was there. I'll guess you get a slushy inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 12z ECMWF takes the SLP east of Chicago, putting cyclone and turtle'cane in the middle of the band. DKB would maybe even see some decent snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 DKB would maybe even see some decent snow showers. LOT has snow in our points now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 LOT has snow in our points now. Yep just saw that and read the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Yep just saw that and read the AFD. Also some snow showers on Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Never seen so many watches and Advisories Canceled on one storm. That SE trend is so 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Wow, Quad Cities nws just issued a winter weather advisory for Cedar Rapids for 2-4 inches of snow along with 30-40 mph wind gusts tomorrow morning. I see the 18z NAM is dropping 5 inches on CR. The max probably won't happen, but even one or two inches would be a nifty early winter treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 The nws has more details in the advisory statement. It's not 2-4 for everyone in the advisory, but rather 2-4 a county north of Cedar Rapids with accums down to only an inch in the CR area. I suppose that makes sense given the system will be bringing the ingredients together more as it pulls away to the northeast. That's ok, it's still a nice winter tease. Update: Local mets aren't real excited about snow amounts... only 1-2 inches in the heaviest band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 DVN AFTER MIDNIGHT MODELS ALL SHOW A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IA INTO WI AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS COOLING BELOW FREEZING DUE INCREASED LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THROUGH MID LEVELS DUE TO THE STRONG LIFT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OR AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE ALL THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION THE GFS KEPT THE DEF ZONE FURTHER WEST AND WAS THE SLOWEST ON THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR EASTERN IOWA. THE NAM WAS THE EASTERN MOST AND FASTEST MODEL BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL SINCE SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEEPENING SOME AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LAYING OVER THE CWFA. TYPICALLY MODELS HAVE HARD TIME HANDLING STRONG GRADIENTS WELL AND UNDER DO QPF IN DEF ZONES OF DEEPENING SYSTEMS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST FOURTH OF THE CWFA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE IT APPEARS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT SOME OF THE SNOW. BUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROGGED AT 6 TO 7 C/KM IN THE DEF ZONE TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOURS PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE MELTING AND START ACCUMULATING. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE SEASON AND WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 40MPH DURING THE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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