wisconsinwx Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Here we are at our next storm, and it is moisture laden. Not likely to be particularly strong pressures, but a heavy soaking for much of the Midwest and Great Lakes, not to mention areas in the S and C Plains that need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Finally someone starts a thread.. Should be a good soaker for sure, maybe some first flakes for some as well. IMO the whole superstition thing by some here has gone too far. It'll rain, snow, thunder, sleet whatever and whenever it ****** wants too regardless of when or WHO starts a thread on a weather forum.. [end rant] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 the 12z GFS depicted light snow even for Toronto, but the 18z took that solution away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 quickly glancing at the 0z NAM, looks like an band of snow from northwest KS-southern NE-northwest IA and into MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 If the 0z NAM is correct then OAX will be getting its 2nd TSSN event in less than a week. An impressive H7 UVV's signal in that area thats sitting under and just north of the 700mb low as well as showing the WAA thunderstorms in the warm sector and north of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 the 12z GFS depicted light snow even for Toronto, but the 18z took that solution away. With a low cutting through Alek's chest hair I doubt it. Looks like something is coming up the east coast after and maybe that could throw some moisture back in to the cold your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 The deformation zone on the GFS has been getting weaker in recent runs, but the Euro is still fairly potent. The 12z Euro drops several inches of snow from se Nebraska through nw Iowa, se Minnesota, and nw Wisconsin. Still looking like a good 1.5-2+" rain along the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 ARX noted how the GFS is the weaker, SE outlier and that the other models are more inline with each other. The implication: more snow for the NW edge of the precip if the stronger, NW models verify. Guess for the heaviest amounts? Probably NW Kansas into SW and NE Nebraska, N Iowa, SE Minnesota into WC, NW and NC Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 NAM and GFS differ on the placement of the heavy rain axis with the GFS being further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 DSM-IOW-CID all get in on a nice looking snow band late tuesday night and into the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 DSM-IOW-CID all get in on a nice looking snow band late tuesday night and into the overnight hours. Even if the farther east NAM is right(vs the Euro) IOW-CID would only get a bit of snow. The 00z NAM is east of the 18z, but still keeps the best snow central to ne Iowa. That second part of the system is still a couple days away so the models will continue to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 looking at the raw output for DSM off the NAM..sfc temps stay right around freezing but 850's well below it while getting near .75" liquid. WED 1A 09-NOV 0.7 -4.0 1017 96 98 0.55 551 538 WED 7A 09-NOV 0.0 -2.3 1021 94 49 0.19 552 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 GFS supports the NAM with a relatively narrow stripe of significant snow; a tad NW of the NAM in terms of the deformation zone. I'm guessing this will be a WWA event for a 50-60 mile wide area from Nebraska up through C and N Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 NWS had snow in my zone forecast for this week as recently as this morning. Looks like it will definitely be contained to NW and NC areas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 00z Euro has shifted a bit eastward with the snow band, dropping a few inches in Waterloo to several inches in La Crosse. It even gives Cedar Rapids an inch. It will have to snow hard to accumulate, though, because it keeps everyone above freezing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 9z SREF mean drops close to an inch of snow as far east as Cedar Rapids/Dubuque, or just west of there tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 DVN mentioning the snow potential for their NW CWA... TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE AT TIMES TO A WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT NW 1/4 SECTIONS. POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AS CHANGES TO SNOW IF OCCLUSION WRAPS UP EVEN FASTER NW OF DBQ-CID LINE FOR LATER SHIFTS. APPEARS NW OF DBQ-CID-TNU LINE COULD PICK UP HALF INCH OR MORE SNOW ON EXPOSED OR GRASSY SURFACES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...IF UPPER LOW DEEPENS FASTER THEN DEFORMATION ZONE COULD BE STRONGER AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. THIS RISK IS MODERATE ATTM AND SHOULD BE CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 Much of N Wisconsin, SE Minnesota, and NC Iowa just issued WS watches for 6 or more inches of wet snow in many places (a tad less in Iowa). Eau Claire/Winona up to Rhinelander looks good, as well as SW to Mason City or Ames, Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 going to be some pretty nice banding with the CCB from OAX into northern IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 DSM AFD EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW PAST 00Z WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY AROUND 03Z OR SHORTLY AFTER ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF FORCING ALONG FROM 285K-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. ONCE THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE...LOOKING LIKE A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF GOOD DENDRITIC SNOWFALL BY 03Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. MAX OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH SNOW ZONE IS GREATEST BY 06Z WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 850MB TO 600MB. THIS SHOWS UP WELL ON A NW-SE CROSS SECTION. GFS/NAM SUGGEST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT BY 06Z WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD ONLY INTENSIFY THE SNOWFALL RATES. ECMWF/GFS TRYING TO PLACE A WEAK TROWAL FEATURE INTO NORTHERN IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE. RIGHT NOW...HAVE A BAND OF 3-5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON AND BULK OF HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING AT NIGHT. ALSO...WINDS LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY GET SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Definitely a tricky forecast for central Iowa into MN and WI. Low-level temps look pretty marginal overall, but the rest of the column looks pretty good. I think there will be areas that pick up some decent snow accumulations, but I don't think we'll see a widespread swath of heavy snow amounts. I think the NWS is on the right track with the relatively conservative amounts generally in the 3-5" range. Interesting to note that the SREF mean has remained even more conservative than the NWS. It generally shows amounts staying sub 2" from Iowa into Wisconsin. Will be interesting to see how this all pans out over the next 24-42hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I'd imagine Frankthetank/daddylonglegs is not happy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 I'd imagine Frankthetank/daddylonglegs is not happy right now. My guess is LaCrosse gets a slushy inch or so of accumulation. They are on the SE edge of the band of snow, and that band may well tick NW from there. I think Mason City to Rochester to Eau Claire and then Land O' Lakes on northward get in on the heavier band of snow, probably 3-6 inches. SREFs probably too conservative, but the GFS and the NAM are probably too bullish, esp with temps barely below freezing, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 ...SREFs probably too conservative, but the GFS and the NAM are probably too bullish, esp with temps barely below freezing, if that. That's the thing that's sort of bugging me. I've kinda grown to trust the SREF mean over the last year or two once we get inside 48hrs. It may be on to something, who knows. This is such a marginal temp kind of situation there's going to be a very fine line between just a small covering to a heavy coating. Now that we're getting deeper into November you'd think a snowier scenario would be more likely, but the reservoir of cold air at the surface in which to tap into is somewhat limited. Temps north and northwest of the deformation band are forecast to be above 40 as the event unfolds. That means a lot of the cold that's needed to be achieved at the surface will have to come from dynamical cooling, which makes me feel a little uncomfortable when forecasting snow amounts lol. As the day goes on tomorrow, especially later in the day we should hopefully get a better idea on how this will all play out as observations upstream are evaluated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I'd imagine Frankthetank/daddylonglegs is not happy right now. Where's he been anyways? 2+ inches being forecast for Madison, haven't seen that much rain in awhile. Temps are going to be around 40 the entire time so this is going to be a frigid cold rainstorm. There's some chance for a changeover to snow Wednesday just before the precip ends, but accumulation appears very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Steady moderate to heavy rains already ongoing here. Looks like a very wet next 30+hrs on tap with 2"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Figures.. One yr I'm stuck hunting down here in early nov. and my hunting grounds up north looks to get a good snowfall for the first time in a while this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 NAM drops 2.25" of rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 pretty skimpy precip on the euro for NW WI. where I'd be at .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I left my window open for some dumb reason and the rain chilled air woke me up. I'll probably just stay up now and go over some problem sets due today. Anyways, round 1 is in full force. Already picked up 0.34" at the airport. Things are a bit colder than expected too, about 38 °F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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