When issuing forecasts to the public...

[bobbutts]

I sent this to a friend who has multiple commercial properties in the area and he did take it seriously..

Apples and oranges comparing last night to this next ordeal -

Folks, be wise not to fall into that trap.

First of all, heavy snow WILL ACCUMULATE and do so with ease. I think I'm done with the time of year warm earth falseness. This next event is also of an entirely diffferent dynamical ilk than last night's system, and cannot logically be used comparatively for what to expect going forward for that reason alone.

But there is more to this... This morning the ride to work featured gossamer snow covering the ground amid 31F cold with brilliant sun... The skies cleared during the overnight and temps reeled due to the new fallen snow. Just that thin aid assisted a cold realization. Though most snow will have disappeared during the day today, the region still suffered a cooling primer and soil temperatures in the contact depths have certainly cooled substantially enough. That environmental variability needs to be considered if anyone is thinking, 'Oh, it's October whatever so it won't stick' - that would be incredibly obtuse considering point 1, and this one combined.

Tonight, clear skies and DPs of 27-33F, long night with bubble high and superior radiator will drill the DP and temperature couplet down to probably the mid 20s - watch for patchy ground ice fog near streams/rivers/revenes. Decoupling shouldn't be much of a issue in achievement. This will actually "freeze" the top 1/4" of exposed surfaces.

Looking at the thermal sigma levels in the FRH grid this next system actually has the possibility of being a 29F ordeal for the interior, over the previous thinking of a 32-33F blue event. This is primarily a nocturnal event for starters, but the 800mb of -7C with dynamical cooling raging, and 980mb of only 0C at Logan with 35kt sustain middle boundary layer flow, and wind that is heavily backed (as discussed, deepening rates combined with this systems particular storm track will cause an enhanced cross-isobaric flow) into the N fending off any ocean tainting, that whole synopsis connotes 20kts sustained near for the lower levels, and about 25-30kts with gusts up near ORH, emperatures some 3 to 5F colder than that 32F at Logan.

Last night it was also discussed that the 00z surface track was not very well aligned with the best jet mechanic-derived UVM, and that the low should track closer to the where that is. That axis of best lift is often denoted by the thickness packing (for complicated physical reasons associated with q-vector restoring inflow jets) ... but the point is, the low was some 200 miles east of that axis in the 00z NAM's depiction. The 00z GFS was west, the 06z NAM came a little west, and now the 12z NAM appears closer to reality considering these deep layer observations. (ECM targeted). For that we have very good broad-spectrum model type consensus amid both the mesoscale and globally based tools. Confidence is high for a storm track from ~ southern NJ to just SE of ACK. This will unfortunately maximize this system's impact potential for those that do not wish it, and be very fortunate to those who do...

This systen should bring along superior -EPV related instability and meso banding amid a general well-described comma head. All the earmarks physics for producing this are present and in anomalous form. It would not be a shocker to light up the night a couple of times and send a low decible beam-rattling boom through the country side.

This is a mid winter classic 60 to 75 days ahead of schedule.

Infrustructural issue I believe will be extreme in a narrow region where 32F. As we have collectively been onto for some time, the unusually warm weeks prior to this cold pattern arrival has seriously belated the foliage progression. Many trees are still burdened with near full-leaf out. Last night I observed a mere 1 inch of slushy snow bend limbs mightily down. This is a factor that is unusually pronounced here. I believe the colder profile that is emerging will spare a lot of the deeper interior as intimated above, but closer to I-95 and KRAY (as it were...), if the ageostrophic vector allows a coastal boundary to vascillated in that area there is going to be a problem. Not sure how to convey this without sounding hystrionic but civility really needs to be warned about this and that pervasive power failures would be a veritable certainty, and that preparations should be implemented now

[CoastalWx]

Yeah....I see your point, its a tough call.

On Friday in school no one believed it. Most people said "No way we get a foot", "I bet we get an inch or two", "They are hyping the storm as usual." They were wrong for sure. People only focus on the busts, so I think next storm with a huge forecast they will be just as doubtful that it will pan out.

Again, I have a problem with "they are hyping the storm..". It's not they as in the meteorologists...direct any anger of overhyping to the news producers/directors. Ask Ryan about that. It's not the met's fault that 2" of snow is the top story and reporters are sent in the field for a storm that brings a measily 2". To a viewer...I can understand how they see it as overhype, but it's not the OCM.

In any case, as far as the whole debate about using the term historic in this viewing area..It certainly was for a good chunk of the market. I think what needs to be done, is for the OCM or any met for that matter.... to clearly convey which areas get crushed,and which areas have minimal impact. However, as usual, the viewer sometimes hears and perceives things much differently than perhaps the OCM intended. How many times have you heard someone say...oh great it's gonna rain on Saturday, just because there was a little raindrop on the 5-day foprecast, showing the possibility of an aftn shower. They neglect to see the sun symbol that is also on the same 5 -day forecast. Communication to the public continues to be the big problem in many ways...and this goes for severe wx warnings. I would have used historic etc for the interior, but it was clear that from cstl areas near BOS and off to the south...the impacts would be much less than interior elevated areas. The forecasts for the interior weren't terribly hard. Sure there was some question between areas getting 12" and areas getting 18"+, but the impacts were pretty much the same in terms of damage/outages. 6" of snow pretty much did 70-80% of the damage.

[Damage In Tolland]

The bottomline is the public wants to hear hype..Hype sells, and it's far better to hype something than it is to play the conservative card, and face what CLP, BOX and other organizations are now facing who didn't take this storm as serious as they should have.

Overhyping and having it underperform is far, far better than underforecasting, and playing things conservative. One all you are left with is a busted forecast..the other you are left with busted lives..

[CoastalWx]

The bottomline is the public wants to hear hype..Hype sells, and it's far better to hype something than it is to play the conservative card, and face what CLP, BOX and other organizations are now facing who didn't take this storm as serious as they should have.

Overhyping and having it underperform is far, far better than underforecasting, and playing things conservative. One all you are left with is a busted forecast..the other you are left with busted lives..

[Damage In Tolland]

Dead serious. If they had forecast the 12-18 inch amounts and not gone with the 2-5 that BOX had...this disaster of epic proportions that CL &P is facing would not have occured . In the wx biz you have to hype..sometimes you lose and it's the boy who cried wolf..and sometimes you knock it out of the park...NBC30 knocked it out of the park and are the heroes in this. Those that weren't watching them or following them on Twitter etc..had no idea the type of storm that was about to change their lives forever.

[powderfreak]

The bottomline is the public wants to hear hype..Hype sells, and it's far better to hype something than it is to play the conservative card, and face what CLP, BOX and other organizations are now facing who didn't take this storm as serious as they should have.

Overhyping and having it underperform is far, far better than underforecasting, and playing things conservative. One all you are left with is a busted forecast..the other you are left with busted lives..

LOL this is awesome.

The reason behind the hype.

[CoastalWx]

Dead serious. If they had forecast the 12-18 inch amounts and not gone with the 2-5 that BOX had...this disaster of epic proportions that CL &P is facing would not have occured . In the wx biz you have to hype..sometimes you lose and it's the boy who cried wolf..and sometimes you knock it out of the park...NBC30 knocked it out of the park and are the heroes in this. Those that weren't watching them or following them on Twitter etc..had no idea the type of storm that was about to change their lives forever.

But what you're talking about is different. We all said how bad it could be...heck even most of the forecasts up here called for massive outages, so it was hyped as it should be. Sure about 36-48hrs out there were questions, but during the day before...the local mets started to hit it hard. You're saying that we should hype every storm. If I did that, I'd be going through recycling bins like the homeless people do around here.

[powderfreak]

Dead serious. If they had forecast the 12-18 inch amounts and not gone with the 2-5 that BOX had...this disaster of epic proportions that CL &P is facing would not have occured . In the wx biz you have to hype..sometimes you lose and it's the boy who cried wolf..and sometimes you knock it out of the park...NBC30 knocked it out of the park and are the heroes in this. Those that weren't watching them or following them on Twitter etc..had no idea the type of storm that was about to change their lives forever.

Think about the statistics of this... what did we decide, this was a 1 in 300 year (or so) event? How many times could you have hyped something like this in the last 300 years before an October snowstorm of this destruction would occur?

I just think it is very, very hard to forecast record events to the public...unless we put absolute and total faith in our model guidance and just go out there and say the computer models are showing a record event of the likes we've never seen before.

[powderfreak]

But what you're talking about is different. We all said how bad it could be...heck even most of the forecasts up here called for massive outages, so it was hyped as it should be. Sure about 36-48hrs out there were questions, but during the day before...the local mets started to hit it hard. You're saying that we should hype every storm. If I did that, I'd be going through recycling bins like the homeless people do around here.

Life-threatening snow squalls with 2-4" when the models show mostly a dry FROPA and some elevation flurries. If you hype it you'll be safe in case an isolated squall pops up over the Berks and brings a 15 minute white out to the Mass Pike, causing one accident. Then you can't get blamed for that accident like you could if you only said flurries and it was <1/4sm +SN for a few minutes.

[Damage In Tolland]

But what you're talking about is different. We all said how bad it could be...heck even most of the forecasts up here called for massive outages, so it was hyped as it should be. Sure about 36-48hrs out there were questions, but during the day before...the local mets started to hit it hard. You're saying that we should hype every storm. If I did that, I'd be going through recycling bins like the homeless people do around here.

I'm not saying to hype every storm. Not at all. I'm saying to hype events that have the potential to be big. Whether it's a flood event/high wind event..whatever.

ALB did a great job of it in their last couple of discos leading up to the storm about catostrophic tree damage and infrastructure failure..and for the most part their area had a powdery snow event. the forecasts of 2-5 inches are what most people not in the know were thinking as of Friday nite.

I can't tell youthe # of people i talked to that thought this was not going to be a big deal. There was very little hype..particularly from the gov't related offices

(they know who they are) .

I'm not taking about those of us on here who read the board everyday..I'm talking the general perception of the public who aren't into the wx.

You've simply got to hype. it gets peple's attn, and it excites people enough to think to themselves,,Hey maybe I'd better make preparations for a life threatening wx event. it's better to be overprepaed than underprepared? Correct?

[powderfreak]

I'm not saying to hype every storm. Not at all. I'm saying to hype events that have the potential to be big. Whether it's a flood event/high wind event..whatever.

ALB did a great job of it in their last couple of discos leading up to the storm about catostrophic tree damage and infrastructure failure..and for the most part their area had a powdery snow event. the forecasts of 2-5 inches are what most people not in the know were thinking as of Friday nite.

I can't tell youthe # of people i talked to that thought this was not going to be a big deal. There was very little hype..particularly from the gov't related offices

(they know who they are) .

I'm not taking about those of us on here who read the board everyday..I'm talking the general perception of the public who are't into the wx.

You've simply got to hype. it gets peple's attn, and it excites people enough to think to themselves,,Hey maybe I'd better make preparations for a life threatening wx event. it's better to be overprepaed than underprepared? Correct?

In this case the hype was warranted. Without a doubt. But hind-sight is 20-20 and there have been quite a few events in the past where the hype has definitely not lived up to the damage. Honestly I think the wind hype with Irene was way over-blown though things like flooding and coastal surge were decently impressive. I don't think many if any interior stations registered anywhere near the type of wind that was forecast with Irene though.

Boxing Day last year was going to be the end-all HECS storm of the century (if you read some of the threads we had back then) and the bulk of the area was in a dry slot when the worst was supposed to occur (one mega-band around western New England was the brunt of that storm). That HECS turned into a shredded mess for 75% of the people on here.

There are a lot that can go wrong when historical storms are forecast... its hard to completely bite into it and forecast a record event.

[Damage In Tolland]

In this case the hype was warranted. Without a doubt. But hind-sight is 20-20 and there have been quite a few events in the past where the hype has definitely not lived up to the damage. Honestly I think the wind hype with Irene was way over-blown though things like flooding and coastal surge were decently impressive. I don't think many if any interior stations registered anywhere near the type of wind that was forecast with Irene though.

Boxing Day last year was going to be the end-all HECS storm of the century (if you read some of the threads we had back then) and the bulk of the area was in a dry slot when the worst was supposed to occur (one mega-band around western New England was the brunt of that storm). That HECS turned into a shredded mess for 75% of the people on here.

There are a lot that can go wrong when historical storms are forecast... its hard to completely bite into it and forecast a record event.

But...just as many things can wrong ( as we have just witnessed) when you underforecast and don't hype. I just have an issue with the conservative nature that the majority of organizations adopt. That's the glass half empty mentality vs half full.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not saying to hype every storm. Not at all. I'm saying to hype events that have the potential to be big. Whether it's a flood event/high wind event..whatever.

ALB did a great job of it in their last couple of discos leading up to the storm about catostrophic tree damage and infrastructure failure..and for the most part their area had a powdery snow event. the forecasts of 2-5 inches are what most people not in the know were thinking as of Friday nite.

I can't tell youthe # of people i talked to that thought this was not going to be a big deal. There was very little hype..particularly from the gov't related offices

(they know who they are) .

I'm not taking about those of us on here who read the board everyday..I'm talking the general perception of the public who aren't into the wx.

You've simply got to hype. it gets peple's attn, and it excites people enough to think to themselves,,Hey maybe I'd better make preparations for a life threatening wx event. it's better to be overprepaed than underprepared? Correct?

You have to chose when to use enhance wording and when to not. I don't know what the people down there did other than Ryan, but all of us were pretty bullish for something big on this board and even the mets on air up here. They were still more conservative than many of us on this board, but words like massive power outages were being thrown around. This was a time to hype.

If we hyped like you wanted us to...we probably would have more deaths that occur in storms, thanks to people being desensitized to warnings. You can't always hype in weather and many times..conservative is a much better way to go.

[Damage In Tolland]

You have to chose when to use enhance wording and when to not. I don't know what the people down there did other than Ryan, but all of us were pretty bullish for something big on this board and even the mets on air up here. They were still more conservative than many of us on this board, but words like massive power outages were being thrown around. This was a time to hype.

If we hyped like you wanted us to...we probably would have more deaths that occur in storms, thanks to people being desensitized to warnings. You can't always hype in weather and many times..conservative is a much better way to go.

You've seen me go conservative many times in those boring and mundane rainstorms that Ginx dons the wizard robe for. But more often than not...you've got to hype wx events. It's what the public wants and demands...and if CLP had gotten it for this past storm..we wouldn't still be talking about power outages 9-10 days after the storm

[CoastalWx]

You've seen me go conservative many times in those boring and mundane rainstorms that Ginx dons the wizard robe for. But more often than not...you've got to hype wx events. It's what the public wants and demands...and if CLP had gotten it for this past storm..we wouldn't still be talking about power outages 9-10 days after the storm

Hyping Irene is a bad thing. Irene was a meh storm that didn't even have 60mph sustained winds. The forecasts were more bullish than what actually happened and cl&p still f*cked up. Unfortunately, it boils down to politics and corporate greed. The one thing that wasn't hyped up, was the flooding in VT which should have been hyped up. Most of the wind and severe events in SNE are meh and deserve to be approached from the conservative side. Sure you may have a 6/1 and those deserve more attention to be sure, but overall...it's much better to be conservative when you are unsure.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hyping Irene is a bad thing. Irene was a meh storm that didn't even have 60mph sustained winds. The forecasts were more bullish than what actually happened and cl&p still f*cked up. Unfortunately, it boils down to politics and corporate greed. The one thing that wasn't hyped up, was the flooding in VT which should have been hyped up. Most of the wind and severe events in SNE are meh and deserve to be approached from the conservative side. Sure you may have a 6/1 and those deserve more attention to be sure, but overall...it's much better to be conservative when you are unsure.

That's what they teach you in school..To non degeed mets like myself..I don't attend that school

[CoastalWx]

That's what they teach you in school..To non degeed mets like myself..I don't attend that school

Not at all...that's what you learn. There are times to go balls to the wall, and other times to play it cool. Overhyping stuff that should not be is a dangerous thing to do, but as a weenie...I guess it doesn't matter. No argument from me, that last weekend should have been hit hard for the interior...and for the most part on here and even on TV...it was.

[Ginx snewx]

Again we were not dealing with a midwinter storm Powdah freak, this is CLPs lead forecaster, this is how all the public statements should have been. The general consensus is the GP did not comprehend what was coming.

http://www.nashuatel...phic-level.html

Six to 12 inches of snow in January is one thing. New Englanders hardly notice that anymore. But in October, with plenty of leaves left on trees, the potential tree and power line damage could be catastrophic and leave a large number of people without power for several days, Webster said.

“The potential is very great,” he said. “To be honest, I think the potential for power outages is greater than it was before Tropical Storm Irene.”

“It you took the leaves off the trees, it would still be an unusual storm, but probably not one that threatened to be very damaging,” Webster said. “There’s going to be tremendous, if not astronomical, tree damage and power outages across the state, far worse than any hurricane we’ve ever had.”

[weatherwiz]

I disagree that hype is the best way to go. If you have computer models and data pointing to something very significant like what we just witnessed then this is when you go all out and play up the potential and the forecast as much as possible. If you hype every single storm people will begin to stop listening to forecasts and won't take them seriously anymore. One thing I've heard from several people is they didn't really buy into how damaging this was going to be b/c of what happened with Irene and how much that was being played up.

When weather becomes hyped people panic and do all sorts of crazy stuff, stores become mobbed, gas stations are completely backed up, people cancel plans, etc.

In our region we very rarely see widespread damaging events like we just saw, they just don't happen too often. Even during the summer when we get severe wx and our spring/fall nor'easters with rains/flooding/wind damage this usually affects a small percentage of people.

[Damage In Tolland]

I disagree that hype is the best way to go. If you have computer models and data pointing to something very significant like what we just witnessed then this is when you go all out and play up the potential and the forecast as much as possible. If you hype every single storm people will begin to stop listening to forecasts and won't take them seriously anymore. One thing I've heard from several people is they didn't really buy into how damaging this was going to be b/c of what happened with Irene and how much that was being played up.

When weather becomes hyped people panic and do all sorts of crazy stuff, stores become mobbed, gas stations are completely backed up, people cancel plans, etc.

In our region we very rarely see widespread damaging events like we just saw, they just don't happen too often. Even during the summer when we get severe wx and our spring/fall nor'easters with rains/flooding/wind damage this usually affects a small percentage of people.

Noone is saying hype every storm

[weatherwiz]

Noone is saying hype every storm

Oh...I thought that's what you were implying.

[Ginx snewx]

Noone is saying hype every storm

You got lucky you found a gas station, gas, cash, beer stash, all historical storms necessaries.