Hoosier Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Models are in general agreement on taking a surface low from the central Plains northeastward into Wisconsin during the middle of next week. Some severe weather looks possible especially south of I-70 in MO/IL with any severe threat farther north/east being too difficult to diagnose at this point mainly due to questions about instability. ECMWF/GFS are bringing near 60 degree dewpoints into parts of IL/MO with low/mid 50's farther north toward Chicago with strong wind fields spreading over the entire area. Not real confident on the magnitude/severity of this event yet but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Bring it on... Already can't wait until next April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 LOT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POWERFUL SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND SOME OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UNSEASONABLY DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. MULTIPLE DAYS OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF...INCLUDING 24-36 HOURS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A RESPECTABLY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS FOR NOVEMBER. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MINOR TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS...GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CERTAINLY LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A FALL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 LOT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POWERFUL SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND SOME OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UNSEASONABLY DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. MULTIPLE DAYS OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF...INCLUDING 24-36 HOURS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A RESPECTABLY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS FOR NOVEMBER. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MINOR TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS...GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CERTAINLY LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A FALL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Me likes what me reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 DVN suggests the threat will stay south of their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 hummm looks interesting, we are due for a fall outbreak here in east central illinois... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2011 Author Share Posted November 5, 2011 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 AM CDT SAT NOV 05 2011 VALID 081200Z - 131200Z TUE/D4... DETERMINISTIC AND MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE AREA NEWD INTO IA... THOUGH AT VARIOUS SPEEDS AND INTENSITY. THE FORCING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF STRONGER FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. MODELS ARE HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF A FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM LINE...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. NORTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...FORCING AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON INSTABILITY PREVENTED THE RISK AREA FROM BEING EXTENDED FARTHER NWD. SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN ERN TX/FAR SRN AR AND LA...STORMS ARE LIKELY AS FRONT/TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. HOWEVER... SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED AS MAIN FORCING PASSES WELL NORTH OF AREA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEIGHT CHANGES. WED/D5...UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE A LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY STILL EXIST IN THE MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING/WIND FIELDS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD INTO AN AREA WHERE NO APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The instability is lacking for this, and the timing keeps moving around. There will be strong winds not far off the surface, so any convection that does get going might bring some of that down. We haven't had our fall severe weather event yet, so anything's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2011 Author Share Posted November 5, 2011 The instability is lacking for this, and the timing keeps moving around. There will be strong winds not far off the surface, so any convection that does get going might bring some of that down. We haven't had our fall severe weather event yet, so anything's possible. Yeah, the GFS seems to be on the faster side. 12z Euro looks like it may have sped up a hair but only glanced quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 Best potential (though still not really great) with this still looks to be roughly south of I-70 in MO and perhaps spilling into IL/KY. There is no magic number but normally at this time of year I'd like to see at least upper 50's surface dews for a better chance of severe including tornadoes and we're not really seeing that except in the area I mentioned. North of I-70 it will probably be tough to pull out anything more than a few wind reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Best potential (though still not really great) with this still looks to be roughly south of I-70 in MO and perhaps spilling into IL/KY. There is no magic number but normally at this time of year I'd like to see at least upper 50's surface dews for a better chance of severe including tornadoes and we're not really seeing that except in the area I mentioned. North of I-70 it will probably be tough to pull out anything more than a few wind reports. The NAM is bringing a narrow axis of instibility and 60F dp's as far north as the Macomb/PIA area Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 The NAM is bringing a narrow axis of instibility and 60F dp's as far north as the Macomb/PIA area Tuesday evening. Yep was just gonna post that. Also some modest CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 The NAM is bringing a narrow axis of instibility and 60F dp's as far north as the Macomb/PIA area Tuesday evening. Wind fields really get cranking after midnight in northeast IL. Too bad there's like no instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 The NAM is bringing a narrow axis of instibility and 60F dp's as far north as the Macomb/PIA area Tuesday evening. too bad we'll be socked in clouds all day with no clearing lol NAM backs the sfc winds and has some crazy low-level shear along I-80 and down to PIA/MQB with the front hanging around I-88 most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Wind fields really get cranking after midnight in northeast IL. Too bad there's like no instability. ya no kidding, 85kt mid-level jet and 60kt LLJ but nothing to work with. a heckuva wave though with a slight negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 ya no kidding, 85kt mid-level jet and 60kt LLJ but nothing to work with. a heckuva wave though with a slight negative tilt. I think I'm liking that doozy being shown into the Veterans Day long weekend into the following week for svr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 ya no kidding, 85kt mid-level jet and 60kt LLJ but nothing to work with. a heckuva wave though with a slight negative tilt. Maybe we'll see a 5% svr to cover the possibility of strong/borderline severe gusts making it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 slight risk extended to Quincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 slight risk extended to Quincy good call by them with probably low 60 dews getting up to that area and the NAM even had 60's up to BRL/south of DVN and with the very strong LLJ/mid-level jet, once the mid-level heights/temps fall after 0z in response to the strong wave, we should see a healthy line of showers and storms and push eastward overnight. Wow 12z NAM stronger and has H5 winds pushing 100kts in northern IL overnight tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 IL guys gonna chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Pretty large 5% tornado probs... If instability turns out to be stronger than expected (maybe some stronger surface heating/improvement of lapse rates), then maybe an increase in those probs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 IL guys gonna chase? Haha wish I could, but have work obligations all week. For whatever reason I'm not very motivated to chase beyond the end of June unless it's a backyard type chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Pretty large 5% tornado probs... If instability turns out to be stronger than expected (maybe some stronger surface heating/improvement of lapse rates), then maybe an increase in those probs? We wont see 10% tor probs IMO. There is going to be ALOT of precip/clouds tomorrow morning, not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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