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Weekly Arctic Sea Ice Contest


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You can always submit before the prelim, the 9pm is more of a guideline. And we've been pretty casual so you can submit the guess a day late if you forget to submit on time.. just try not to look at the prelim. I had almost given up on this week but it looks like the numbers are back just in time, so I can see how that might make for some late guesses.

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You can always submit before the prelim, the 9pm is more of a guideline. And we've been pretty casual so you can submit the guess a day late if you forget to submit on time.. just try not to look at the prelim. I had almost given up on this week but it looks like the numbers are back just in time, so that is causing a little confusion.

JAXA has come back so the contest is proceeding as usual. We should give people a little extra time due to the circumstances here. But I do like to have the guesses before the prelim as that seems like the honest way to do it.

+395k

Could you come on FB, Andrew?

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It looks pretty terrible for ice in the Bering Straight this week with strong south winds and very warm air. The Hudson bay doesn't look too good either in the area that is unfrozen, there are easterly winds and fairly warm air except for one cold shot. Okhotsk looks decent for some gains and it has been gaining lately. I went with 240k because I think the climo of 225k this week is exceptionally low and there are some very bad years thrown in there (the sample size is only 8). The week before averaged 350k so I'd peg the 'true average' at around 275 or 300k. So I think 240k is pretty low for this time of year, especially considering how far below average we are already. I considered guessing even lower but that's hard to do given how far below average we are already.

Just got back a little while ago, been checking out the snow totals for the storm. Haven't seen prelim. I'll go with 440k for this week. Thanks to Nate for taking care of things while I was gone.

We're at extreme record low levels which argues for above average gain, Hudson's Bay should continue to freeze some with a cold shot, Hudson* strait might start too as that cold moves east, the Bering Strait esp on the Russian side should do well with very cold air and north winds, and the northern and western Okhotsk should gain a little too with some extreme cold at the very north edge late in the week. The Barents is the area where it might not do so well early in the week with south winds and warm air. Baffin Bay might gain a little with a brief cold shot but overall continues to struggle with the extreme NAO blocking.

We ended up gaining moderately in Hudson Straight and Hudson Bay. Big gains in the Bering Straight. Decent gains in Okhotsk. Barents lost ice. Very slight gains in Baffin Bay.
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Week 15 Scores:

skierinvermont 	164000
Nzucker    	149000
winterwxluvr	111000
Consensus	92000
grcjrsc    	89000
Normal    	75000
Mallow    	75000
tacoman		69000
Roger Smith  	57000
MN transplant	24000

Cumulative Scores:

skierinvermont 	1768000
Normal		1551000
Consensus	1296000
Nzucker		1267000
tacoman		1219000
MN transplant	1190000
grcjrsc		914000
frivolousz21	733000
winterwxluvr	627000
Roger Smith  	533000
Mallow		255000
blazess556	71000
BethesdaBoy	64000
Organizing Low	49000
Ytterbium        -171000

Average Error (at least 3 guesses)

skierinvermont 	132133
Normal		146600
tacoman		162929
Consensus	163600
MN transplant	165000
Nzucker		165533
grcjrsc		184714
frivolousz21	188917
winterwxluvr	197750
Roger Smith  	214467
Mallow		233000

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+1k final

+119k through first 5 days of week

I went back through the archives to look at Hudson's Bay and we have now surpassed the latest freeze date for Hudson's Bay previously held by Jan 5, 2002. This is the date by when it was 100% frozen, not even a small area of unfrozen. We still have a large area of unfrozen and it could take another week or two to freeze completely.

Several years it had frozen 100% by Dec 10, and the average looks to be around Dec 15-20.

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+1k final

+119k through first 5 days of week

I went back through the archives to look at Hudson's Bay and we have now surpassed the latest freeze date for Hudson's Bay previously held by Jan 5, 2002. This is the date by when it was 100% frozen, not even a small area of unfrozen. We still have a large area of unfrozen and it could take another week or two to freeze completely.

Several years it had frozen 100% by Dec 10, and the average looks to be around Dec 15-20.

Current Extent: 12,362,813km2

Daily Gain: 1,563km2

Contest Gain: 119,219km2

Another week or two for Hudson Bay? 12z ECM shows -20C 850s moving in by Day 4...it's going to freeze pretty quickly at this point with temperatures in the double digit negatives at night. Cold air is finally moving into Canada, and we're going to see rapid gains in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Baffin Bay with the block temporarily breaking down and the -EPO pattern delivering brutal cold into Canada. We'll do very well next week with the ridge filling over the Bering Strait as well as lots of freezing near Labrador, Baffin Island, Greenland etc...lots of cold air to play with the as the -20C contour covers most of Canada from Labrador to BC, really impressive chill. Blocking should come back soon though, so we'll have to watch areas of fragile ice if the SE winds begin again.

It's amazing that Hudson Bay is still unfrozen, though I don't find it frightening at all. -NAO FTW Snowman.gif

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Current Extent: 12,362,813km2

Daily Gain: 1,563km2

Contest Gain: 119,219km2

Another week or two for Hudson Bay? 12z ECM shows -20C 850s moving in by Day 4...it's going to freeze pretty quickly at this point with temperatures in the double digit negatives at night. Cold air is finally moving into Canada, and we're going to see rapid gains in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Baffin Bay with the block temporarily breaking down and the -EPO pattern delivering brutal cold into Canada. We'll do very well next week with the ridge filling over the Bering Strait as well as lots of freezing near Labrador, Baffin Island, Greenland etc...lots of cold air to play with the as the -20C contour covers most of Canada from Labrador to BC, really impressive chill. Blocking should come back soon though, so we'll have to watch areas of fragile ice if the SE winds begin again.

It's amazing that Hudson Bay is still unfrozen, though I don't find it frightening at all. -NAO FTW Snowman.gif

Yeah I didn't look at the pattern.. just going by how low it normally takes to freeze an area that big if we had normal weather. Looks pretty cold so it will probably be around a week +/- a couple days not two.

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Current Extent: 12,393,594km2

Daily Gain: 41,094km2

Contest Gain: 150,000km2

It seems that JAXA results are highly dependent on what's going on in the Pacific side (AK/Beaufort Sea/Bering Strait)....I wonder if the satellite analysis is at all weighted towards certain regions and what the biases for each region are. Still many unanswered questions about the methodology used although you can tell it wasn't a good week looking at the Cryosphere Today images. Blocking does seem to be loosening its grip however, especially on the Atlantic side.

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Current Extent: 12,393,594km2

Daily Gain: 41,094km2

Contest Gain: 150,000km2

It seems that JAXA results are highly dependent on what's going on in the Pacific side (AK/Beaufort Sea/Bering Strait)....I wonder if the satellite analysis is at all weighted towards certain regions and what the biases for each region are. Still many unanswered questions about the methodology used although you can tell it wasn't a good week looking at the Cryosphere Today images. Blocking does seem to be loosening its grip however, especially on the Atlantic side.

It's not weighted. It is an analysis of areal coverage. No region did very well this week and some lost ice. I think the low number makes perfect sense based on the satellite images as well as the poor weather that was modeled at the start of the week.

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Week 16 Scores, congrats to normal and tacoman for taking second cumulative

Normal          175000
skierinvermont 	160000
Roger Smith  	122000
tacoman        100000
Mallow 		79000
Consensus	54000
winterwxluvr	25000
MN transplant	20000
Nzucker        5000
grcjrsc        -78000

Cumulative:

skierinvermont 	1928000
Normal 		1726000
Consensus	1350000
tacoman 	1319000
Nzucker 	1272000
MN transplant	1210000
grcjrsc 	836000
frivolousz21	733000
Roger Smith  	655000
winterwxluvr	652000
Mallow 		334000
blazess556	71000
BethesdaBoy	64000
Organizing Low	49000
Ytterbium        -171000

Average Error (at least 3 guesses):

skierinvermont 	129500
Normal 		142125
tacoman 	162067
Consensus	165625
MN transplant	169333
Nzucker 	170500
frivolousz21	188917
grcjrsc 	194267
winterwxluvr	199846
Roger Smith  	209063
Mallow 		229125

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