nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thanks. Congrats. Looks like you're the winner. If I'm reading that right, that's my second week in a row as runner up. LUCK on my end. Yup...you're doing well and I've moved up a bunch in the last six weeks after my original weenie guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 You can always submit before the prelim, the 9pm is more of a guideline. And we've been pretty casual so you can submit the guess a day late if you forget to submit on time.. just try not to look at the prelim. I had almost given up on this week but it looks like the numbers are back just in time, so I can see how that might make for some late guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You can always submit before the prelim, the 9pm is more of a guideline. And we've been pretty casual so you can submit the guess a day late if you forget to submit on time.. just try not to look at the prelim. I had almost given up on this week but it looks like the numbers are back just in time, so that is causing a little confusion. JAXA has come back so the contest is proceeding as usual. We should give people a little extra time due to the circumstances here. But I do like to have the guesses before the prelim as that seems like the honest way to do it. +395k Could you come on FB, Andrew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 grcjrsc 478000 nzucker 395000 MN Transplant 380000 winterwxluvr 375000 Mallow 321000 tacoman 300000 Roger Smith 278000 Skierinvermont 240000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 It looks pretty terrible for ice in the Bering Straight this week with strong south winds and very warm air. The Hudson bay doesn't look too good either in the area that is unfrozen, there are easterly winds and fairly warm air except for one cold shot. Okhotsk looks decent for some gains and it has been gaining lately. I went with 240k because I think the climo of 225k this week is exceptionally low and there are some very bad years thrown in there (the sample size is only 8). The week before averaged 350k so I'd peg the 'true average' at around 275 or 300k. So I think 240k is pretty low for this time of year, especially considering how far below average we are already. I considered guessing even lower but that's hard to do given how far below average we are already. Just got back a little while ago, been checking out the snow totals for the storm. Haven't seen prelim. I'll go with 440k for this week. Thanks to Nate for taking care of things while I was gone. We're at extreme record low levels which argues for above average gain, Hudson's Bay should continue to freeze some with a cold shot, Hudson* strait might start too as that cold moves east, the Bering Strait esp on the Russian side should do well with very cold air and north winds, and the northern and western Okhotsk should gain a little too with some extreme cold at the very north edge late in the week. The Barents is the area where it might not do so well early in the week with south winds and warm air. Baffin Bay might gain a little with a brief cold shot but overall continues to struggle with the extreme NAO blocking. We ended up gaining moderately in Hudson Straight and Hudson Bay. Big gains in the Bering Straight. Decent gains in Okhotsk. Barents lost ice. Very slight gains in Baffin Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Week 15 Scores: skierinvermont 164000 Nzucker 149000 winterwxluvr 111000 Consensus 92000 grcjrsc 89000 Normal 75000 Mallow 75000 tacoman 69000 Roger Smith 57000 MN transplant 24000 Cumulative Scores: skierinvermont 1768000 Normal 1551000 Consensus 1296000 Nzucker 1267000 tacoman 1219000 MN transplant 1190000 grcjrsc 914000 frivolousz21 733000 winterwxluvr 627000 Roger Smith 533000 Mallow 255000 blazess556 71000 BethesdaBoy 64000 Organizing Low 49000 Ytterbium -171000 Average Error (at least 3 guesses) skierinvermont 132133 Normal 146600 tacoman 162929 Consensus 163600 MN transplant 165000 Nzucker 165533 grcjrsc 184714 frivolousz21 188917 winterwxluvr 197750 Roger Smith 214467 Mallow 233000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Prelim of +106k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcjrsc Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 +478....Call it unoffical if I was too late. Looked at nothing and was on a work project all day yesterday. Excel macros are so much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Prelim of +106k. Current Extent: 12,369,531km2 Daily Gain: 125,937km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Prelim of 20k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Current Extent: 12,369,531km2 Daily Gain: 125,937km2 Current Extent: 12,410,938km2 Daily Gain: 41,407km2 Contest Gain: 167,344km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Current Extent: 12,410,938km2 Daily Gain: 41,407km2 Contest Gain: 167,344km2 Current Extent: 12,407,188km2 Daily Gain: -3,750km2 (loss of ice) Contest Gain: 163,594km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 +1k final +119k through first 5 days of week I went back through the archives to look at Hudson's Bay and we have now surpassed the latest freeze date for Hudson's Bay previously held by Jan 5, 2002. This is the date by when it was 100% frozen, not even a small area of unfrozen. We still have a large area of unfrozen and it could take another week or two to freeze completely. Several years it had frozen 100% by Dec 10, and the average looks to be around Dec 15-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 +1k final +119k through first 5 days of week I went back through the archives to look at Hudson's Bay and we have now surpassed the latest freeze date for Hudson's Bay previously held by Jan 5, 2002. This is the date by when it was 100% frozen, not even a small area of unfrozen. We still have a large area of unfrozen and it could take another week or two to freeze completely. Several years it had frozen 100% by Dec 10, and the average looks to be around Dec 15-20. Current Extent: 12,362,813km2 Daily Gain: 1,563km2 Contest Gain: 119,219km2 Another week or two for Hudson Bay? 12z ECM shows -20C 850s moving in by Day 4...it's going to freeze pretty quickly at this point with temperatures in the double digit negatives at night. Cold air is finally moving into Canada, and we're going to see rapid gains in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Baffin Bay with the block temporarily breaking down and the -EPO pattern delivering brutal cold into Canada. We'll do very well next week with the ridge filling over the Bering Strait as well as lots of freezing near Labrador, Baffin Island, Greenland etc...lots of cold air to play with the as the -20C contour covers most of Canada from Labrador to BC, really impressive chill. Blocking should come back soon though, so we'll have to watch areas of fragile ice if the SE winds begin again. It's amazing that Hudson Bay is still unfrozen, though I don't find it frightening at all. -NAO FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Current Extent: 12,362,813km2 Daily Gain: 1,563km2 Contest Gain: 119,219km2 Another week or two for Hudson Bay? 12z ECM shows -20C 850s moving in by Day 4...it's going to freeze pretty quickly at this point with temperatures in the double digit negatives at night. Cold air is finally moving into Canada, and we're going to see rapid gains in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Baffin Bay with the block temporarily breaking down and the -EPO pattern delivering brutal cold into Canada. We'll do very well next week with the ridge filling over the Bering Strait as well as lots of freezing near Labrador, Baffin Island, Greenland etc...lots of cold air to play with the as the -20C contour covers most of Canada from Labrador to BC, really impressive chill. Blocking should come back soon though, so we'll have to watch areas of fragile ice if the SE winds begin again. It's amazing that Hudson Bay is still unfrozen, though I don't find it frightening at all. -NAO FTW Yeah I didn't look at the pattern.. just going by how low it normally takes to freeze an area that big if we had normal weather. Looks pretty cold so it will probably be around a week +/- a couple days not two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 -30k prelim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 -10k final 109k for the week 1 day to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 -10k final 109k for the week 1 day to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 414 k for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 150k for the week I forgot to post averages for the coming week but I'd guess it's around 250-300k .. I'll do it soon but go ahead and start guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Averages 1/11-1/18 2003: 431,562 2004: 233,281 2005: 232,021 2006: -87,344 2007: 516,407 2008: 217,656 2009: 394,531 2010: 212,657 Average: 268,846 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcjrsc Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Blocking breaking down, so going to go with 375k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Lets try this again. +385k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 +206 (k) How big is Long Island Sound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Current Extent: 12,393,594km2 Daily Gain: 41,094km2 Contest Gain: 150,000km2 It seems that JAXA results are highly dependent on what's going on in the Pacific side (AK/Beaufort Sea/Bering Strait)....I wonder if the satellite analysis is at all weighted towards certain regions and what the biases for each region are. Still many unanswered questions about the methodology used although you can tell it wasn't a good week looking at the Cryosphere Today images. Blocking does seem to be loosening its grip however, especially on the Atlantic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Current Extent: 12,393,594km2 Daily Gain: 41,094km2 Contest Gain: 150,000km2 It seems that JAXA results are highly dependent on what's going on in the Pacific side (AK/Beaufort Sea/Bering Strait)....I wonder if the satellite analysis is at all weighted towards certain regions and what the biases for each region are. Still many unanswered questions about the methodology used although you can tell it wasn't a good week looking at the Cryosphere Today images. Blocking does seem to be loosening its grip however, especially on the Atlantic side. It's not weighted. It is an analysis of areal coverage. No region did very well this week and some lost ice. I think the low number makes perfect sense based on the satellite images as well as the poor weather that was modeled at the start of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 +315k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 +310k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Week 16 Scores, congrats to normal and tacoman for taking second cumulative Normal 175000 skierinvermont 160000 Roger Smith 122000 tacoman 100000 Mallow 79000 Consensus 54000 winterwxluvr 25000 MN transplant 20000 Nzucker 5000 grcjrsc -78000 Cumulative: skierinvermont 1928000 Normal 1726000 Consensus 1350000 tacoman 1319000 Nzucker 1272000 MN transplant 1210000 grcjrsc 836000 frivolousz21 733000 Roger Smith 655000 winterwxluvr 652000 Mallow 334000 blazess556 71000 BethesdaBoy 64000 Organizing Low 49000 Ytterbium -171000 Average Error (at least 3 guesses): skierinvermont 129500 Normal 142125 tacoman 162067 Consensus 165625 MN transplant 169333 Nzucker 170500 frivolousz21 188917 grcjrsc 194267 winterwxluvr 199846 Roger Smith 209063 Mallow 229125 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Second place! (Human). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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