tacoman25 Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 345k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 -83 just kidding +333 for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Prelim of 31k for the last day of the contest. +65k. I think that means I'm sitting pretty for last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Current Extent: 11,717,656km2 Daily Gain: 64,531km2 Contest Gain: 312,968km2 MNTransplant wins the contest for the week. Winterwxluvr comes in 2nd place. When skier gets home from his ski trip, LOL, he will tally the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Current Extent: 11,717,656km2 Daily Gain: 64,531km2 Contest Gain: 312,968km2 Hey, my best week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Sea Ice Gain (km2), 12/29-1/4 2002: 546,562 2003: 293,750 2004: 214,532 2005: 367,344 2006: 418,125 2007: 349,219 2008: 415,469 2009: 202,343 Average Gain: 350,918km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Current Extent: 11,717,656km2 Daily Gain: 64,531km2 Contest Gain: 312,968km2 MNTransplant wins the contest for the week. Winterwxluvr comes in 2nd place. When skier gets home from his ski trip, LOL, he will tally the results. Unfortunately I truncated instead of rounding up, so climo won the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcjrsc Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 +365 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 +425k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 +351k. Climo it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Just a reminder: Andrew (skierinvermont) is away skiing. When he gets back to his home, the scores for last week will be tallied. I don't have the Excel data to do this myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Prelim of 64k. Just a reminder: Andrew (skierinvermont) is away skiing. When he gets back to his home, the scores for last week will be tallied. I don't have the Excel data to do this myself. You guys should do a Google document. It would be very helpful for your purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Just got back a little while ago, been checking out the snow totals for the storm. Haven't seen prelim. I'll go with 440k for this week. Thanks to Nate for taking care of things while I was gone. We're at extreme record low levels which argues for above average gain, Hudson's Bay should continue to freeze some with a cold shot, Baffin strait might start too as that cold moves east, the Bering Strait esp on the Russian side should do well with very cold air and north winds, and the northern and western Okhotsk should gain a little too with some extreme cold at the very north edge late in the week. The Barents is the area where it might not do so well early in the week with south winds and warm air. Baffin Bay might gain a little with a brief cold shot but overall continues to struggle with the extreme NAO blocking. post scores tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Just got back a little while ago, been checking out the snow totals for the storm. Haven't seen prelim. I'll go with 440k for this week. Thanks to Nate for taking care of things while I was gone. We're at extreme record low levels which argues for above average gain, Hudson's Bay should continue to freeze some with a cold shot, Baffin strait might start too as that cold moves east, the Bering Strait esp on the Russian side should do well with very cold air and north winds, and the northern and western Okhotsk should gain a little too with some extreme cold at the very north edge late in the week. The Barents is the area where it might not do so well early in the week with south winds and warm air. Baffin Bay might gain a little with a brief cold shot but overall continues to struggle with the extreme NAO blocking. post scores tomorrow Agree with most of what you say here. When you say Baffin Strait, do you mean the body of water between Quebec and Baffin Island? I think that's called Hudson Strait. We're so far behind in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait, I think we'll freeze a lot of the bay and some of the strait with temperatures just around average. There's a small pool of -20C 850mb temperatures in Hudson Bay associated with a weak PV there, so I wouldn't be surprised if the eastern side of the bay freezes this week with the exception of James Bay and perhaps the extreme SE part where the low pressure stalls out with milder air remaining in place. Baffin Bay basically looks like a lost cause this winter; with the NAO averaging over -2SD, there's just no way it can freeze as quickly or as far south as normal. It'll ice eventually but isn't going to be impressive in my opinion. The airmass near the Bering Strait and heading towards the Sea of Okhotsk is very impressive. All of the Russian coastline SW of the Bering Strait is unfrozen, and we're going to see massive gains there with 850s of -25C and north winds. The -30C 850mb contour makes it to the shores of the Sea of Okhotsk with -40C over Siberia. Here is a snapshot of the airmass, using the 0z North Pacific GFS at 108 hours: I think the Atlantic side will get hit some early in the week, but cold does return there as per guidance. We have some -20C 850s moving south of Svalbard, with SSTs below 0C, so we should see some freezing. Here is the ECM at Day 3: BTW, do you know how much the Sea of Japan freezes in winter? I know there is ice there, but what is the general concentration and extent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Agree with most of what you say here. When you say Baffin Strait, do you mean the body of water between Quebec and Baffin Island? I think that's called Hudson Strait. We're so far behind in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait, I think we'll freeze a lot of the bay and some of the strait with temperatures just around average. There's a small pool of -20C 850mb temperatures in Hudson Bay associated with a weak PV there, so I wouldn't be surprised if the eastern side of the bay freezes this week with the exception of James Bay and perhaps the extreme SE part where the low pressure stalls out with milder air remaining in place. Baffin Bay basically looks like a lost cause this winter; with the NAO averaging over -2SD, there's just no way it can freeze as quickly or as far south as normal. It'll ice eventually but isn't going to be impressive in my opinion. The airmass near the Bering Strait and heading towards the Sea of Okhotsk is very impressive. All of the Russian coastline SW of the Bering Strait is unfrozen, and we're going to see massive gains there with 850s of -25C and north winds. The -30C 850mb contour makes it to the shores of the Sea of Okhotsk with -40C over Siberia. Here is a snapshot of the airmass, using the 0z North Pacific GFS at 108 hours: I think the Atlantic side will get hit some early in the week, but cold does return there as per guidance. We have some -20C 850s moving south of Svalbard, with SSTs below 0C, so we should see some freezing. Here is the ECM at Day 3: BTW, do you know how much the Sea of Japan freezes in winter? I know there is ice there, but what is the general concentration and extent? Yeah - meant Hudson strait not Baffin Strait. It looks to me like the extreme north end of the Sea of Japan freezes sometimes, but it is hard to tell because it is near the edge of the map where everything appears compressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Week 14 scores, Congrats MN Transplant: Normal 241000 MN transplant 240000 Consensus 236000 winterwxluvr 227000 skierinvermont 223000 Nzucker 188000 ElTacoman 177000 MallowTheCloud 175000 grcjrsc 149000 Roger Smith 137000 Cumulative: skierinvermont 1604000 Normal 1476000 Consensus 1204000 MN transplant 1166000 ElTacoman 1150000 Nzucker 1118000 grcjrsc 825000 frivolousz21 733000 winterwxluvr 516000 Roger Smith 476000 MallowTheCloud 180000 blazess556 71000 BethesdaBoy 64000 Organizing Low 49000 Ytterbium -171000 Average Error (at least 3 weeks): skierinvermont 135429 Normal 144571 MN transplant 160308 ElTacoman 161538 Consensus 164000 Nzucker 170143 grcjrsc 186538 frivolousz21 188917 winterwxluvr 203091 Roger Smith 216000 MallowTheCloud 237143 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Jaxa still not reporting but here are the numbers for next week in case the numbers come back before Wednesday. If not we might have to skip next week. 1/4-1/11: 2003: 270,787 2004: 215,479 2005: 143,281 2006: 90,625 2007: -57,613 2008: 296,875 2009: 441,719 2010: 395,000 Average: 224,519 Looks like it's starting to slow down and also more variance compared to recent weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 +321k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 300k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 +400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 JAXA has not been updating lately. Does anyone know why? Contest information is on hold until we get some news as to what's going on with JAXA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Jaxa has updated...we've gained about 460k so far pending the revision on the final day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 +278 k for the next week then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 375 K My guess for 1/6 through 1/12. ( I guess that's next week, right?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Jaxa has updated...we've gained about 460k so far pending the revision on the final day. Hmmm. Can we update our guess? When is the cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hmmm. Can we update our guess? When is the cutoff? Yes you can change until 9pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 +400 Ok, considering last week, I'm going to bring it down a tad. +380k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm getting confused here. Do we have a result for Dec. 30 through Jan 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm getting confused here. Do we have a result for Dec. 30 through Jan 5? Current Extent: 12,243,594km2 Daily Gain: 122,031km2 Contest Gain: 525,938km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Current Extent: 12,243,594km2 Daily Gain: 122,031km2 Contest Gain: 525,938km2 Thanks. Congrats. Looks like you're the winner. If I'm reading that right, that's my second week in a row as runner up. LUCK on my end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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