nzucker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The inlets near the head of the Aleutian archipelago do have some icing although there isn't any along the actual islands yet. That might happen if we realize this arctic outbreak that the models seem to be latching onto, although as skier says there are some warm eddies in the region whose deleterious effects will have to be monitored as well. It doesn't much matter, though, compared to how badly we're doing on the North American side....prelim was -57k today, incredibly embarrassing for mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 There is not ice anywhere near the Aleutians (besides some shore ice in the bays along the Alaskan coast).. and they are surrounded by water of +6C to their north.. not even close to "the Aleutians freezing solid." Iceland also has a pool of warm water surrounding it of +2C which is not close to freezing either. As I've said before, areas which are close to freezing show up as 0-1C or N/A. No significant ice in Okhotsk either. Prelim -57k. Saying "the Aleutians could freeze solid" or that the ice pack will extend to Iceland in the next week seems sort of outlandish to me at this point. I see a bunch of ice in Okhotsk's southwest corner...that's the dimmer part of the map towards the bottom, but you can clearly see floating ice in the coastal regions of the Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 I see a bunch of ice in Okhotsk's southwest corner...that's the dimmer part of the map towards the bottom, but you can clearly see floating ice in the coastal regions of the Sea. Yeah that's weird that area is so dim you can hardly see it. Still not very much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah that's weird that area is so dim you can hardly see it. Still not very much though. Yeah it's not going to have a significant impact on the global count unless it expands northward and covers all the coastal regions of that inlet. We are getting some cold airmasses into the Sea of Okhotsk for the next week so hopefully it can expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think we are negative for the week with just two days to go.. yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Week 14 12/21-28 2002: 365,625 2003: 237,813 2004: 171,093 2005: 356,563 2006: 245,313 2007: 346,562 2008: 357,343 2009: 350,157 Average: 303,809 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 +200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 +240k Where'd we end up for the past week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcjrsc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 +212 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Final Week 13: 82,188 Scores coming in a moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Week 13 Scores: skierinvermont 42000 Nzucker -28000 Normal -62000 ElTacoman -66000 winterwxluvr -69000 Consensus -70000 grcjrsc -73000 MallowTheCloud -106000 MN transplant -118000 Roger Smith -138000 Cumulative Scores: skierinvermont 1381000 Normal 1235000 ElTacoman 973000 Consensus 968000 Nzucker 930000 MN transplant 926000 frivolousz21 733000 grcjrsc 676000 Roger Smith 339000 winterwxluvr 289000 blazess556 71000 BethesdaBoy 64000 Organizing Low 49000 MallowTheCloud 5000 Ytterbium -171000 Average Error (at least 3 weeks): skierinvermont 143769 Normal 155000 ElTacoman 168917 MN transplant 172833 Consensus 175538 Nzucker 178462 frivolousz21 188917 grcjrsc 193667 winterwxluvr 221100 Roger Smith 223923 MallowTheCloud 249615 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 326 K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 340k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 nzucker 375k Skierinvermont 340k winterwxluvr 336k MN Transplant 303k tacoman 240k grcjrsc 212k Roger 200k MN, Mallow, zuck -- go ahead and throw your guesses in if you want (just try not to look!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 +303 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 375k Sorry I was out at the gym and doing XMAS shopping. Apologies for the late guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Can I change mine to -1 million? I just saw a big flash of light in the west. Oh cancel the alert, it was just North Korea celebrating their national holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Current Extent: 11,490,781km2 Daily Gain: 86,093km2 Not sure why everyone went so low this week with very frigid air on the Pacific side and lots of Hudson Bay left to freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Current Extent: 11,490,781km2 Daily Gain: 86,093km2 Not sure why everyone went so low this week with very frigid air on the Pacific side and lots of Hudson Bay left to freeze. I went climo because it is beating me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I went climo because it is beating me. I don't think we can be too emphatic in our own forecasts considering none of us are really doing any better than climo. I do think it is possible to have some skill though. I think my guesses have had some skill but often it's been a case of going too extreme and losing points because of that. I went back to see how many times I got the sign of the weekly anomaly right because any skill would be more evident there. I got the sign of the anomaly right in Weeks 1,3,6,7,9,11,12,13 or 8/13 times. Not that good, but if you only look at weeks where I guessed more than 50k above or below climo, I got the sign of the anomaly right 7/7 times. So when there is a clear obvious sign one way or another, I think I can pick it up correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't think we can be too emphatic in our own forecasts considering none of us are really doing any better than climo. I do think it is possible to have some skill though. I think my guesses have had some skill but often it's been a case of going too extreme and losing points because of that. I went back to see how many times I got the sign of the weekly anomaly right because any skill would be more evident there. I got the sign of the anomaly right in Weeks 1,3,6,7,9,11,12,13 or 8/13 times. Not that good, but if you only look at weeks where I guessed more than 50k above or below climo, I got the sign of the anomaly right 7/7 times. So when there is a clear obvious sign one way or another, I think I can pick it up correctly. I've really started to improve in the last four weeks by being less emotional and checking SSTs more carefully. I definitely don't see why, however, so many people would go in the low 200s this week with brutally cold air in the Bering Strait area as well as the Barents Sea, as well as the huge chunk of Hudson Bay that is sitting as open water in late December. I think there is definitely a tendency in this contest to bias one week's forecast on what happened the previous week and what mistakes were made, which is a fallacy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm using my bank balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 nzucker 375k Skierinvermont 340k winterwxluvr 336k MN Transplant 303k tacoman 240k grcjrsc 212k Roger 200k MN, Mallow, zuck -- go ahead and throw your guesses in if you want (just try not to look!) Whoops, I've been busy the past few days. Well I haven't looked at anything but the normals (and other guesses ) yet, so my guess is 388k. After last week's craptascular showing, we've got to catch up at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Current Extent: 11,549,375km2 Daily Gain: 58,594km2 Contest Gain: 144,687km2 Doing relatively well this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 +59k prelim...lower guesses are out of it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 +59k prelim...lower guesses are out of it at this point. This was actually a mistake, as we've not gained as much as I expected...Here is the latest data for 12/26 Current Extent: 11,631,406km2 Daily Gain: 49,531km2 Contest Gain: 226,718km2 I know that Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay have been warm, but I'm surprised we've not gained more with the brutally arctic outbreak near Alaska/Bering Strait. Prelim was -17k for today; heck, it seems easier to freeze a lake here in NYC than a bay up at 80N this year, blocking FTL. Of course, there's always the possibility the numbers are being "censored" by Jim Hansen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Current Extent: 11,653,125km2 Daily Gain: 21,719km2 Contest Gain: 248,437km2 One day left.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Prelim of 31k for the last day of the contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 For next week: +300k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 387 K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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