Weekly Arctic Sea Ice Contest

[nzucker]

Prelim of 69k for the final day.

[grcjrsc]

+405

[nzucker]

Current Extent: 11,322,500km2

Daily Gain: 101,250km2

Contest Gain: 616,094km2

[Roger Smith]

Fairly good group effort this week.

[nzucker]

360k

[skierinvermont]

Swear to god haven't looked at the prelim or this thread... 290k

[skierinvermont]

skierinvermont 	290000
Nzucker	360000
Normal	394000
ElTacoman	398000
winterwxluvr	401000
grcjrsc	405000
MallowTheCloud	438000
MN transplant	450000
Roger Smith   470000

[nzucker]

Swear to god haven't looked at the prelim or this thread... 290k

I think it's fine given that the forum was down and you told me on the phone you hadn't seen the prelim.

You won't be to happy with your guess given that tonight's prelim was 54k. I think you might be lowballing a little as we'll definitely gain a bunch in the Fram Strait east of Greenland with the 498dm polar low currently descending from Greenland towards Scotland, where it will wreak havoc. 850s are around -25C at the center of the low pressure and you can bet there's a lot of low-level cold air with those heights. This pattern looks to repeat around Day 5 as another polar low moves from eastern Greenland towards the British Isles, with an even wider extent of the cold air. This pattern with a frigid polar low behind a west-based NAO is why Roger Smith is talking about the ice freezing all around Iceland for the first time in many years.

One place you probably didn't look at carefully was the Sea of Okhotsk, which hasn't been discussed much in this thread yet as it generally doesn't start freezing at all until November and December. We currently have a tiny bit of ice on the far north end near the Kamchatka Peninsula but are lagging; this week will see an arctic outbreak with 850s in the -25C range heading towards the Sea of Okhotsk's western end, north of Japan, where SSTs are near 0C already, causing a good increase in ice there. We should also gain some near the Bering Strait at the end of the week as cold air returns there by Day 5. Obviously we won't get much on the North American side given the incredible warmth although I do expect Baffin Bay's ice to expand as -10C/-12C 850s return Days 6-7 in the area near Greenland where we have little ice. Overall, my guess of 360k might be low and you will also have problems given the higher prelim than expected tonight.

[skierinvermont]

I think it's fine given that the forum was down and you told me on the phone you hadn't seen the prelim.

You won't be to happy with your guess given that tonight's prelim was 54k. I think you might be lowballing a little as we'll definitely gain a bunch in the Fram Strait east of Greenland with the 498dm polar low currently descending from Greenland towards Scotland, where it will wreak havoc. 850s are around -25C at the center of the low pressure and you can bet there's a lot of low-level cold air with those heights. This pattern looks to repeat around Day 5 as another polar low moves from eastern Greenland towards the British Isles, with an even wider extent of the cold air. This pattern with a frigid polar low behind a west-based NAO is why Roger Smith is talking about the ice freezing all around Iceland for the first time in many years.

One place you probably didn't look at carefully was the Sea of Okhotsk, which hasn't been discussed much in this thread yet as it generally doesn't start freezing at all until November and December. We currently have a tiny bit of ice on the far north end near the Kamchatka Peninsula but are lagging; this week will see an arctic outbreak with 850s in the -25C range heading towards the Sea of Okhotsk's western end, north of Japan, where SSTs are near 0C already, causing a good increase in ice there. We should also gain some near the Bering Strait at the end of the week as cold air returns there by Day 5. Obviously we won't get much on the North American side given the incredible warmth although I do expect Baffin Bay's ice to expand as -10C/-12C 850s return Days 6-7 in the area near Greenland where we have little ice. Overall, my guess of 360k might be low and you will also have problems given the higher prelim than expected tonight.

I don't see much happening in Okhotsk besides maybe the extreme northern part freezing which wouldn't amount to much area. I think we might even lose some in Hudson and Foxe with warm east winds pushing back against the ice edge. There's not much room for large area gain along Greenland.. that area doesn't fluctuate much because it is bordered by the gulf stream. And the Bering straight is warm most of the week so I don't see large gains there either. Wasn't totally sure about the Barents and Kara.

[nzucker]

I don't see much happening in Okhotsk besides maybe the extreme northern part freezing which wouldn't amount to much area. I think we might even lose some in Hudson and Foxe with warm east winds pushing back against the ice edge. There's not much room for large area gain along Greenland.. that area doesn't fluctuate much because it is bordered by the gulf stream. And the Bering straight is warm most of the week so I don't see large gains there either. Wasn't totally sure about the Barents and Kara.

I think it's more a question of the larger western part of the Sea of Okhotsk freezing; that's a much larger area of water, probably over 100k, and that's where all the cold 850s are being directed. You can see from this 0z GFS initialization how cold the airmass moving in really is, even a small bubble of -40C 850s trying to reach the coast:

I also don't think SSTs are that warm in the critical western area of the sea...looks like 32F or so to me, maybe 33F a bit farther east, definitely cold enough to freeze when -30C 850s arrive:

You're mistaken about where the Gulf Stream is by a small margin; The Gulf Stream actually scoots south of Iceland towards the immediate western coast of Scandinavia, not moving up towards Greenland where there's actually a cold water current that can do more damage. The two polar lows this week will allow ice to fill in around Svalbard; according to the 12/14 map on Cryosphere Today, we didn't even have ice to the northwest of Svalbard and then back towards Iceland, areas that are almost certain to fill in. I think Roger Smith's idea is generally correct although it's been a while since we saw ice all around Iceland. Here is a map of global ocean currents showing the proper location of the Gulf Stream:

Places like the Bering Strait and Baffin Bay are "warm" compared to average (well, the Bering does drop to average around Day 6/7 on ECM, I believe)...but anyway, above average is still cold there. The area of -10C 850s over Baffin Bay by the end of the week should help freeze those lagging areas near Greenland where ice should have formed a month ago.

With the preliminary value being so high, we're probably both in trouble...we gained close to 100k today which leaves only 190k for you and 260k for me. Should we get a significant freeze in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Atlantic Arctic, we'll get past that.

[skierinvermont]

I am aware there is a cold current down the coast of Greenland.. but east of that is the gulf stream. Your map is far too broad to examine the specifics of currents. The ice edge is bordered by warm water not too far away, this leaves little room for expansion. Nor does climo. We actually have more ice along greenland than most recent years. And the variance is extremely small relative to other areas.

[nzucker]

I am aware there is a cold current down the coast of Greenland.. but east of that is the gulf stream. Your map is far too broad to examine the specifics of currents. The ice edge is bordered by warm water not too far away, this leaves little room for expansion. Nor does climo. We actually have more ice along greenland than most recent years. And the variance is extremely small relative to other areas.

I was thinking maybe another 75-100k from the Atlantic side for the last 6 days, 50-75k from the Okhotsk Sea, 50k from Barents/Kara, 75k from the Bering area (which 0z ECM shows brutally cold Day 6/7 with a patch of -30C 850s moving in)...and of course the nearly 100k gain today. I am aware we can't gain too much into the Gulf Stream but there's still unfrozen waters behind Svalbard to the northwest and the tongue of ice to the east of Greenland generally expands southward and wraps around the land area during the winter freeze. These polar lows are immensely powerful, and that is one reason why Britain is having an old-fashioned cold/snowy winter as Dickens used to write about. So I wouldn't be surprised if we get a decent gain. You still haven't explained how the Sea of Okhotsk won't freeze up some either with SST near 0C/1C and an airmass with -20C/-25C sitting over it for four days. You also haven't explained how we could only gain 190k in 6 days, seems very low considering the amount of areas left to freeze. We'll see that, it's now time to watch it play out. Overall a very educational discussion despite our differences, as usual.

[skierinvermont]

I was thinking maybe another 75-100k from the Atlantic side for the last 6 days, 50-75k from the Okhotsk Sea, 50k from Barents/Kara, 75k from the Bering area (which 0z ECM shows brutally cold Day 6/7 with a patch of -30C 850s moving in)...and of course the nearly 100k gain today. I am aware we can't gain too much into the Gulf Stream but there's still unfrozen waters behind Svalbard to the northwest and the tongue of ice to the east of Greenland generally expands southward and wraps around the land area during the winter freeze. These polar lows are immensely powerful, and that is one reason why Britain is having an old-fashioned cold/snowy winter as Dickens used to write about. So I wouldn't be surprised if we get a decent gain. You still haven't explained how the Sea of Okhotsk won't freeze up some either with SST near 0C/1C and an airmass with -20C/-25C sitting over it for four days. You also haven't explained how we could only gain 190k in 6 days, seems very low considering the amount of areas left to freeze. We'll see that, it's now time to watch it play out. Overall a very educational discussion despite our differences, as usual.

I don't think Okhotsk will freeze because usually SSTs show up as at or below zero for like a week before they actually freeze.. this is why I think you've forecasted several other areas to freeze well before they actually have frozen. Obviously all of this is highly unpredictable.. the 290 might be too low considering the gain today which will be interesting to see where that comes from. Also when I said 290 i was thinking 100k below the average of 393.. but I forgot that the 393 is probably not representative of the "true' average because last week was 560ish and it wouldn't have dropped that much. Most likely the true mean is 450-475 in which case I should have guessed ~350 if I was trying to go 100k below average. Ooops

[nzucker]

Current Extent: 11,411,406km2

Daily Gain: 88,906km2

[WinterWxLuvr]

Did I miss the results of last weeks contest?

[Roger Smith]

Can't find my entry for this week, I do remember typing it, maybe it didn't post. It was something like +470k.

Anyway, a bit late now, no worries if I have missed the deadline. That's what I was expecting after looking at the previous years and the models.

I've had some virus problems the past two weeks and would not be surprised if this post got timed out on a forced shutdown.

[skierinvermont]

Can't find my entry for this week, I do remember typing it, maybe it didn't post. It was something like +470k.

Anyway, a bit late now, no worries if I have missed the deadline. That's what I was expecting after looking at the previous years and the models.

I've had some virus problems the past two weeks and would not be surprised if this post got timed out on a forced shutdown.

No worries.. you're in

[skierinvermont]

Did I miss the results of last weeks contest?

Sorry I've been away from home and don't have the spreadsheet I do it on normally.. I'll post em tomorrow night.

[Roger Smith]

Thanks, the North Atlantic charts tonight are stupendous for ice spreadage over the next two weeks, at this rate polar bears will be knocking on doors in Reykjavik like in the good old days. Also, the Baltic is rapidly freezing from the northern bays and various other shoreline areas. Not sure if much of it will make this week's numbers, maybe next week. OTOH, as somebody said above, Hudson Bay may stop increasing ice coverage with the mild easterlies.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Sorry I've been away from home and don't have the spreadsheet I do it on normally.. I'll post em tomorrow night.

Thanks

[nzucker]

Current Extent: 11,411,406km2

Daily Gain: 88,906km2

Current Extent: 11,408,750km2

Daily Gain: -2,656km2 (loss of ice)

Contest Gain: 86,250km2

Prelim of -59k tonight, really bad with the warm easterlies getting into Hudson Bay and warm air in the Bering Strait. The Bering Strait gets cold by Day 5 and that's when the second polar low drops off Greenland...this should help the freeze some but we're really having trouble with the North American side due to record-breaking blocking over the high latitudes. Pattern looks more normal for a strong La Niña on the long-range 12z ECM with a polar vortex returning to the North Pole, hence a +AO with colder air staying within the Arctic Circle.

[skierinvermont]

Week 12 Scores, Congrats MN transplant on the week and taking the #2 spot :

Also, I realized after I posted that I need to update the spreadsheet names, so I'll do that next week.

Consensus	216000
MN transplant	214000
skierinvermont 	186000
Nzucker		166000
winterwxluvr	165000
grcjrsc		162000
MallowTheCloud	154000
Roger Smith  	146000
ElTacoman	144000
Normal		128000
frivolousz21	100000

Cumulative:

skierinvermont 	1339000
Normal		1297000
MN transplant	1044000
ElTacoman	1039000
Consensus	1038000
Nzucker		958000
grcjrsc		749000
frivolousz21	733000
Roger Smith  	477000
winterwxluvr	358000
MallowTheCloud	111000
blazess556	71000
BethesdaBoy	64000
Organizing Low	49000
Ytterbium   	-171000

Average Error:

skierinvermont 	138417
Normal		141917
MN transplant	155091
ElTacoman	155545
Consensus	163500
Nzucker		170167
grcjrsc		181909
frivolousz21	188917
winterwxluvr	210222
Roger Smith  	210250
MallowTheCloud	240750

[skierinvermont]

Current Extent: 11,408,750km2

Daily Gain: -2,656km2 (loss of ice)

Contest Gain: 86,250km2

Prelim of -59k tonight, really bad with the warm easterlies getting into Hudson Bay and warm air in the Bering Strait. The Bering Strait gets cold by Day 5 and that's when the second polar low drops off Greenland...this should help the freeze some but we're really having trouble with the North American side due to record-breaking blocking over the high latitudes. Pattern looks more normal for a strong La Niña on the long-range 12z ECM with a polar vortex returning to the North Pole, hence a +AO with colder air staying within the Arctic Circle.

Actually the place that was losing the fastest was the Barents not Hudson Bay or Bering st. Strong south winds.

[nzucker]

Actually the place that was losing the fastest was the Barents not Hudson Bay or Bering st. Strong south winds.

Yeah I was shocked, I just got a chance to look. Hudson Bay hasn't lost much despite the warmth (though it's going to be impossible to freeze the eastern part). But the winds ahead of the polar low are wreaking some havoc upon the Barents Ice. We should start to get some gains though by Day 4-5 as the very cold airmass moves into the Bering (looks as if ice is already developing near the Aleutians, so the southward extent may be pretty good this year, and that should accelerate). Also hoping for some gains with the much colder polar low slipping into the Denmark Strait and the Sea of Okhotsk as the week gets to the second half.

[skierinvermont]

Final:

-41k

11367344

Week so far: +45k

[nzucker]

Final:

-41k

11367344

Week so far: +45k

Wow, that's awful...I'm surprised it didn't recover much from the awful preliminary. You and I are both looking great this week though I'm a little worried that we could see some intense acceleration as the frigid polar low drops into the Denmark/Fram Strait and colder temperatures return to the Bering Strait, actually pretty brutal out there with -20C 850s making their way towards the Aleutians. This could be the first time in a while the Aleutians freeze solid.

[skierinvermont]

Wow, that's awful...I'm surprised it didn't recover much from the awful preliminary. You and I are both looking great this week though I'm a little worried that we could see some intense acceleration as the frigid polar low drops into the Denmark/Fram Strait and colder temperatures return to the Bering Strait, actually pretty brutal out there with -20C 850s making their way towards the Aleutians. This could be the first time in a while the Aleutians freeze solid.

You and Roger keep talking about iceland and the Aleutians freezing.. this is not the time of year to be thinking about that. Whether or not those areas freeze will be determined by whether or not we get extreme cold anomalies over the regions in February, not December. It might help lower SSTs, but I'm sure there is a cold shot in those regions most Decembers and/or January.

[skierinvermont]

Well after closing the gap on some of the past years we are back to record low status after gaining basically no ice the past 4 days

-13k final

+32k so far

[nzucker]

You and Roger keep talking about iceland and the Aleutians freezing.. this is not the time of year to be thinking about that. Whether or not those areas freeze will be determined by whether or not we get extreme cold anomalies over the regions in February, not December. It might help lower SSTs, but I'm sure there is a cold shot in those regions most Decembers and/or January.

Actually there's now a significant amount of ice just north of the Aleutians, shore ice around northern Iceland, and ice in the SW corner of the Sea of Okhotsk where the arctic outbreak has taken place recently; I think Roger and I were right on the money about discussing these recent trends. The long-range GFS and ECM have consistently shown very cold air moving into the Bering Strait/Aleutians area. 12z ECM shows a patch of -20C 850mb temperatures down to the Aleutians at Day 7 and -25C shows up in the Bering Strait at Day 8 with considerable potential for freezing SW along the Russian side. Some runs of the GFS have even brought the -30C contour to the Bering Strait due to the strong high pressing in from Siberia. At Day 8 on the 12z ECM, there is also a massive arctic outbreak on the Atlantic side with -25C 850s south of Svalbard and -20C near the Scandinavian Coast. Pretty much unprecedented how cold it's been the European area...we're talking about cracking hundreds of years of records in Britain and Scandinavia this month. So I think this is a legitimate conversation to be having despite how early it is in the winter season.

Well after closing the gap on some of the past years we are back to record low status after gaining basically no ice the past 4 days

-13k final

+32k so far

Yeah the North American side is just terrible...still open water in the northeast sections of the Baffin Bay at like 75N, Hudson Bay is only around half frozen, no freezing in Hudson Strait. This is what happens when you have a 4SD block over the Arctic/Greenland; apparently the AO has never been this negative in a La Niña winter. All the maritime air from the block has really hurt these areas this fall, just as it prevented freezing in the Labrador Sea last winter and disrupted seal hunting and sleigh riding. I still think we have a good shot at a high maximum if this pattern continues though, since the warmth is falling over areas that are bound to freeze eventually whereas the cold anomalies are consistently over the Atlantic Arctic/Europe which tends to be more variable and rarely freezes much if the winter is not exceptionally cold. I wonder how far the ice can get down to Scandinavia this winter, will be interesting to watch and certainly a factor in how cold Europe gets when the next bout of -NAO blocking arrives.

[skierinvermont]

There is not ice anywhere near the Aleutians (besides some shore ice in the bays along the Alaskan coast).. and they are surrounded by water of +6C to their north.. not even close to "the Aleutians freezing solid." Iceland also has a pool of warm water surrounding it of +2C which is not close to freezing either. As I've said before, areas which are close to freezing show up as 0-1C or N/A. No significant ice in Okhotsk either. Prelim -57k.

Saying "the Aleutians could freeze solid" or that the ice pack will extend to Iceland in the next week seems sort of outlandish to me at this point. These are things that would occur in late Jan through March, if ever. I can't find any year where "the Aleutians froze solid" even in the 1980s in February and March (there's a couple that are close).. nevermind the 2010s in mid December. I also can't find a year where there was really solid ice to Iceland even in Feb or March, although I am sure it has happened at some point.