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Weekly Arctic Sea Ice Contest


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Foxe Basin is finally starting to freeze, the northern 20% of it was shown as ice cover on the EC map today. I see the first little bits of ice showing in the northeast Sea of Okhotsk now as well. But with the pattern in the far north of Europe, there will probably be reasonable gains there over time, temperatures seem to be about 5-10 degrees below previous years around Svalbard and Franz Josef Land. In other words, back to normal.

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Prelim just 1k today.. starting to slow down.

Foxe Basin is finally starting to freeze, the northern 20% of it was shown as ice cover on the EC map today. I see the first little bits of ice showing in the northeast Sea of Okhotsk now as well. But with the pattern in the far north of Europe, there will probably be reasonable gains there over time, temperatures seem to be about 5-10 degrees below previous years around Svalbard and Franz Josef Land. In other words, back to normal.

Do you have a link to this? On the cryosphere maps there's nothing in Foxe yet as of the 26th.

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Current Extent: 10,023,594km2

Daily Gain: 102,500km2

Contest Gain: 480,555km2

Another big gain, looks like Roger Smith will emerge victorious this week. Continue to expect large gains, folks, with cold air on the Pacific side, in the Barents Sea, and soon expected to move into Baffin Bay, Foxe Basin, and Hudson Bay.

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If today's number is small, then it might be our best week collectively thus far. The "Consensus" score wouldn't beat week 3's 243,000, but the average of all our scores could beat week 3's 187,000 because we all guessed fairly close to the actual result (the spread is smaller).

Prelim was +29k...close for the first place this week.

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Week 10 Scores, Congrats Roger almost nailed it :)

pretty good week for us overall, it was our 3rd highest scoring week

Roger Smith  	245000
MN transplant	215000
ElTacoman	175000
Normal		165000
Nzucker		145000
Consensus	136000
skierinvermont 	135000
frivolousz21	105000
grcjrsc		87000
MallowTheCloud	62000
winterwxluvr	52000

Cumulative:

skierinvermont 	1015000
Normal		976000
MN transplant	708000
ElTacoman	667000
Nzucker		599000
Consensus	596000
grcjrsc		453000
frivolousz21	424000
Roger Smith  	108000
winterwxluvr	88000
blazess556	71000
BethesdaBoy	64000
Organizing Low	49000
Ytterbium   	-171000
MallowTheCloud	-286000

Average Error (at least 3 weeks):

skierinvermont 	148500
Normal		152400
MN transplant	171333
ElTacoman	175889
Nzucker		190100
Consensus	190400
grcjrsc		199667
frivolousz21	207600
winterwxluvr	237429
Roger Smith  	239200
MallowTheCloud	278600

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Thoughts for this week:

Foxe and Hudson's Bay should both have major freezing because they are at record low ice/late freeze date, and there is some average/below average air that will be present over them especially mid-week and late-week. SSTs are close to freezing already. The Chukchi and Bering Straight should continue to freeze fairly rapidly as it has this past week due to below average temperatures much of the week. I would expect the Chukchi to freeze completely or nearly completely, the only inhibitor is that warm eddy which is still sticking around but has mostly faded. South of the Bering Straight we could see some freezing too with some strong north winds late in the week and below average temps most of the week acting on waters that are already close to freezing. Should see some more freezing in the NE Barents later in the week as a deep low drags some very cold air south over the water there, but I don't look for particularly large gains here. The southern Kara should mostly finish freezing with pretty cold air much of the week. Baffin Bay has warm air the early part of the week due to the continuing -NAO, but as this fades there is some very cold air especially in the northern part of the bay which is already frozen. The warmth is not extreme so I expect the melting of the last few days to subside and then some growth but nothing too large. Most of the gains I expect will be Foxe Basin and Hudson Bay, as well as the Bering Straight. Most other areas should see slight to moderate gains. All in all makes for a great week.

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axesmiley.png

I was thinking the week would be back loaded... but -7k???

I'm not too worried though as it will probably be revised to like 50k since the revisions have been huge lately. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a day around 200k towards the end but I went low just to protect myself against the first two days being crappy. Cold air doesn't really arrive at Hudson Bay till the weekend.

Can you come on FB for a sec?

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