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Weekly Arctic Sea Ice Contest


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I'm also resigning as scorekeeper, but if someone else wants to continue posting averages and keep the scores I will continue guessing and can send them the excel file to make the scores. It's pretty easy, it takes 5-10 to make and post the scores, and 5 to look up and average the past years from Jaxa. But I've been doing it 20 weeks now, and it gets tiresome especially if only 8 of us are guessing/estimating. And I've gotten lazy lately and have been forgetting to post averages. So if someone wants to take over, I'll go with 210k.

I'll post scores for the last week tomorrow.

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I'm also resigning as scorekeeper, but if someone else wants to continue posting averages and keep the scores I will continue guessing and can send them the excel file to make the scores. It's pretty easy, it takes 5-10 to make and post the scores, and 5 to look up and average the past years from Jaxa. But I've been doing it 20 weeks now, and it gets tiresome especially if only 8 of us are guessing/estimating. And I've gotten lazy lately and have been forgetting to post averages. So if someone wants to take over, I'll go with 210k.

I'll post scores for the last week tomorrow.

I guess I'll do it, but I think we should try to keep the contest alive for 52 weeks.

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I'm out, guys. It was fun, but I wasn't putting enough effort into it, and my results show that. :arrowhead:

I'll be honest, I'm not even looking at anything other than what the prior week did and tempering my guess the other way, generally. If the call is made to close down the contest, that would be fine. Mallow - do you still have the monthly ones? If so, you could throw the rest of the guesses in another thread and we could just see where we were. Thanks to skier for running this contest! If we keep going, I'll go with 220k this week.

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And week 19 goes to nzucker

Nzucker		190000
skierinvermont 	160000
winterwxluvr	159000
Roger Smith  	122000
Consensus	109000
MN transplant	90000
Normal		58000
grcjrsc		30000
Mallow		9000

Cumulative Scores:

skierinvermont 	2571000
Normal		2214000
Nzucker		1919000
Consensus	1848000
tacoman		1772000
MN transplant	1688000
winterwxluvr	1081000
grcjrsc		1026000
Roger Smith  	986000
frivolousz21	733000
Mallow		663000
blazess556	71000
BethesdaBoy	64000
Organizing Low	49000
Ytterbium        -171000

Average Error:

skierinvermont 	114684
Normal		133474
tacoman		145765
Nzucker		149000
Consensus	152737
MN transplant	156222
blazess556	179000
winterwxluvr	182438
BethesdaBoy	186000
frivolousz21	188917
grcjrsc		189647
Roger Smith  	198105
Mallow		215105
Organizing Low	225500
Ytterbium        421000

Tally of weeks won

frivolousz21:	0 
skierinvermont: 7 (6,9,13,15,16,17,18)
Mallow:		1 (11)
MN transplant:  5 (2,8,12,14,18)
tacoman:   	2 (3,7)
grcjrsc:	0
Organizing Low:	0
Nzucker:    	3 (1,4,19)
Ytterbium:	0
Roger Smith:    2 (5,10)
blazess556:	0
winterwxluvr:	0
BethesdaBoy:	0

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You said you'd do the scores / averages.. did you change your mind? I can email you the excel file that makes the scores automatically.

Yes, I will do it, but no one seems to be participating anymore. You seem to have given up on the contest as well. I'm not sure why you gave up the scoring, either, it's not as if you're pulling 50 hours a week at the job LOL

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Weekly Scores

skierinvermont 	118000
MN transplant	108000
Normal		97000
Nzucker		78000
Consensus	56000
winterwxluvr	-8000
Roger Smith  	-17000

Average Error

skierinvermont 	115550
Normal		134450
tacoman		145765
Nzucker		150150
Consensus	154800
MN transplant	155474
blazess556	179000
BethesdaBoy	186000
winterwxluvr	186882
frivolousz21	188917
grcjrsc		189647
Roger Smith  	201550
Mallow		215105
Organizing Low	225500
Ytterbium       421000

Cumulative Scores:

skierinvermont 	2689000
Normal		2311000
Nzucker		1997000
Consensus	1904000
MN transplant	1796000
tacoman		1772000
winterwxluvr	1073000
grcjrsc		1026000
Roger Smith  	969000
frivolousz21	733000
Mallow		663000
blazess556	71000
BethesdaBoy	64000
Organizing Low	49000
Ytterbium       -171000

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In honor of the Franklin expedition (who lost big time to the ice) I will keep going until my food supplies run out.

Looking at the charts, I foresee steady gains in the Sea of Okhotsk, some gains in the Gulf of St Lawrence and around Newfoundland, and slight gains in the Russian sector. As I said in a post earlier, the main Baltic rarely freezes and the gulfs are now frozen, but it will be cold there too, perhaps some gains?

Anyway, I will go for this week ending now to show +200k (didn't check this out) and then the following week to Feb 23 showing +300k.

Let's keep it going and discussions of the ice extent will be interesting anyway.

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Let's keep it going and discussions of the ice extent will be interesting anyway.

Even if we don't keep the contest going formally, I'm still going to use this thread to post updates and information about the state of the northern cryosphere. Here is the latest from JAXA:

Current Extent: 13,585,781km2

Daily Gain: 58,437km2

Tonight's prelim was +15k.

Here's where we stand on JAXA compared to other years, not great but better than a few days ago:

Most of the gains in the last few days have occurred in the Sea of Okhotsk, where there's currently very cold air with flow coming off Siberia. The Sea of Okhotsk, located to the north of the Sea of Japan, is 1,583,000km2 in area. Its ice conditions vary from winter to winter; in cold years, it can freeze almost all the way out to the Pacific Ocean, whereas milder years see ice formation solely along the coastal areas and in the inlet near the Kamchatka Peninsula. The Cryosphere Today map shows the new ice developing in Okhotsk, with modest gains also taking place near the Labrador coastline where it's been colder due to the +NAO pattern:

We should see large gains continuing in the Sea of Okhotsk, and then also in the Bering Strait area. The 12z ECM shows very favorable condition in these areas at Day 3, with most of the aforementioned region below -20C at 850mb:

In the longer range, the Euro shows very favorable conditions for ice formation in the Barents Sea and Fram Strait, east of Greenland:

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