Mallow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm out, guys. It was fun, but I wasn't putting enough effort into it, and my results show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Weekly Gains (km2), 2/2-2/8 2003: 51,520 2004: 384,687 2005: 176,719 2006: 211,875 2007: 135,938 2008: 380,312 2009: 338,438 2010: 166,250 Average: 230,717 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 +250k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm also resigning as scorekeeper, but if someone else wants to continue posting averages and keep the scores I will continue guessing and can send them the excel file to make the scores. It's pretty easy, it takes 5-10 to make and post the scores, and 5 to look up and average the past years from Jaxa. But I've been doing it 20 weeks now, and it gets tiresome especially if only 8 of us are guessing/estimating. And I've gotten lazy lately and have been forgetting to post averages. So if someone wants to take over, I'll go with 210k. I'll post scores for the last week tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm also resigning as scorekeeper, but if someone else wants to continue posting averages and keep the scores I will continue guessing and can send them the excel file to make the scores. It's pretty easy, it takes 5-10 to make and post the scores, and 5 to look up and average the past years from Jaxa. But I've been doing it 20 weeks now, and it gets tiresome especially if only 8 of us are guessing/estimating. And I've gotten lazy lately and have been forgetting to post averages. So if someone wants to take over, I'll go with 210k. I'll post scores for the last week tomorrow. I guess I'll do it, but I think we should try to keep the contest alive for 52 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm out, guys. It was fun, but I wasn't putting enough effort into it, and my results show that. I'll be honest, I'm not even looking at anything other than what the prior week did and tempering my guess the other way, generally. If the call is made to close down the contest, that would be fine. Mallow - do you still have the monthly ones? If so, you could throw the rest of the guesses in another thread and we could just see where we were. Thanks to skier for running this contest! If we keep going, I'll go with 220k this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 And week 19 goes to nzucker Nzucker 190000 skierinvermont 160000 winterwxluvr 159000 Roger Smith 122000 Consensus 109000 MN transplant 90000 Normal 58000 grcjrsc 30000 Mallow 9000 Cumulative Scores: skierinvermont 2571000 Normal 2214000 Nzucker 1919000 Consensus 1848000 tacoman 1772000 MN transplant 1688000 winterwxluvr 1081000 grcjrsc 1026000 Roger Smith 986000 frivolousz21 733000 Mallow 663000 blazess556 71000 BethesdaBoy 64000 Organizing Low 49000 Ytterbium -171000 Average Error: skierinvermont 114684 Normal 133474 tacoman 145765 Nzucker 149000 Consensus 152737 MN transplant 156222 blazess556 179000 winterwxluvr 182438 BethesdaBoy 186000 frivolousz21 188917 grcjrsc 189647 Roger Smith 198105 Mallow 215105 Organizing Low 225500 Ytterbium 421000 Tally of weeks won frivolousz21: 0 skierinvermont: 7 (6,9,13,15,16,17,18) Mallow: 1 (11) MN transplant: 5 (2,8,12,14,18) tacoman: 2 (3,7) grcjrsc: 0 Organizing Low: 0 Nzucker: 3 (1,4,19) Ytterbium: 0 Roger Smith: 2 (5,10) blazess556: 0 winterwxluvr: 0 BethesdaBoy: 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Are we still doing this contest, or is it over? Current Extent: 13,372,344km2 Daily Gain: 29,688km2 Contest Gain: 56,250km2 Tonight's prelim was -31k...ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Are we still doing this contest, or is it over? Current Extent: 13,372,344km2 Daily Gain: 29,688km2 Contest Gain: 56,250km2 Tonight's prelim was -31k...ouch! You said you'd do the scores / averages.. did you change your mind? I can email you the excel file that makes the scores automatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 You said you'd do the scores / averages.. did you change your mind? I can email you the excel file that makes the scores automatically. Yes, I will do it, but no one seems to be participating anymore. You seem to have given up on the contest as well. I'm not sure why you gave up the scoring, either, it's not as if you're pulling 50 hours a week at the job LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 I uploaded it here, it was easier and anybody else that wants to can take a look. Like I said I'll keep guessing if you post the averages http://www.fileswap....ntest.xlsx.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Weekly Scores skierinvermont 118000 MN transplant 108000 Normal 97000 Nzucker 78000 Consensus 56000 winterwxluvr -8000 Roger Smith -17000 Average Error skierinvermont 115550 Normal 134450 tacoman 145765 Nzucker 150150 Consensus 154800 MN transplant 155474 blazess556 179000 BethesdaBoy 186000 winterwxluvr 186882 frivolousz21 188917 grcjrsc 189647 Roger Smith 201550 Mallow 215105 Organizing Low 225500 Ytterbium 421000 Cumulative Scores: skierinvermont 2689000 Normal 2311000 Nzucker 1997000 Consensus 1904000 MN transplant 1796000 tacoman 1772000 winterwxluvr 1073000 grcjrsc 1026000 Roger Smith 969000 frivolousz21 733000 Mallow 663000 blazess556 71000 BethesdaBoy 64000 Organizing Low 49000 Ytterbium -171000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Are we planning on restarting the contest this week? I will post averages for the coming week if people want to guess. I'd like to get it going again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 I'll guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 In honor of the Franklin expedition (who lost big time to the ice) I will keep going until my food supplies run out. Looking at the charts, I foresee steady gains in the Sea of Okhotsk, some gains in the Gulf of St Lawrence and around Newfoundland, and slight gains in the Russian sector. As I said in a post earlier, the main Baltic rarely freezes and the gulfs are now frozen, but it will be cold there too, perhaps some gains? Anyway, I will go for this week ending now to show +200k (didn't check this out) and then the following week to Feb 23 showing +300k. Let's keep it going and discussions of the ice extent will be interesting anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 278 K, if we are still doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Let's keep it going and discussions of the ice extent will be interesting anyway. Even if we don't keep the contest going formally, I'm still going to use this thread to post updates and information about the state of the northern cryosphere. Here is the latest from JAXA: Current Extent: 13,585,781km2 Daily Gain: 58,437km2 Tonight's prelim was +15k. Here's where we stand on JAXA compared to other years, not great but better than a few days ago: Most of the gains in the last few days have occurred in the Sea of Okhotsk, where there's currently very cold air with flow coming off Siberia. The Sea of Okhotsk, located to the north of the Sea of Japan, is 1,583,000km2 in area. Its ice conditions vary from winter to winter; in cold years, it can freeze almost all the way out to the Pacific Ocean, whereas milder years see ice formation solely along the coastal areas and in the inlet near the Kamchatka Peninsula. The Cryosphere Today map shows the new ice developing in Okhotsk, with modest gains also taking place near the Labrador coastline where it's been colder due to the +NAO pattern: We should see large gains continuing in the Sea of Okhotsk, and then also in the Bering Strait area. The 12z ECM shows very favorable condition in these areas at Day 3, with most of the aforementioned region below -20C at 850mb: In the longer range, the Euro shows very favorable conditions for ice formation in the Barents Sea and Fram Strait, east of Greenland: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I realize nobody guessed for the week just ended, but what was the gain just for our interest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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