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Weekly Arctic Sea Ice Contest


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Week 18 scores, congrats to MN (and myself), very close one between 4 of us, came down to less than 400 sq km!

skierinvermont 	238000
MN transplant	238000
Nzucker		237000
tacoman		228000
Normal		198000
Consensus	191000
Mallow		186000
winterwxluvr	149000
Roger Smith  	38000

Cumulative:

skierinvermont 	2411000
Normal		2156000
tacoman		1772000
Consensus	1739000
Nzucker		1729000
MN transplant	1598000
grcjrsc		996000
winterwxluvr	922000
Roger Smith  	864000
frivolousz21	733000
Mallow		654000
blazess556	71000
BethesdaBoy	64000
Organizing Low	49000
Ytterbium        -171000

Average Error (at least 3 weeks):

skierinvermont 	116056
Normal		130222
tacoman		145765
Consensus	153389
Nzucker		153944
MN transplant	156000
grcjrsc		187750
winterwxluvr	188533
Roger Smith  	202000
Mallow		213667

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For my self scoring:

+250k

The conditions in the Bering Strait area look quite good this week with north to northeast winds and cold air. Okhotsk is not especially cold, but is cooler than last week with a more northerly wind direction (although it starts the week quite warm). That should allow for some gains there especially considering how little ice there is currently. Barents is highly unfavorable with south winds and above average temps, however I don't think we can lose too much more there considering we are now considerably below average there after last week's torch. I think Hudson Strait (and the area just east of there which may not technically be part of the Strait) will continue to gain as they are right on the edge of that very cold canadian air, and we might get some in Baffin Bay as well although it doesn't get as much of the bitter cold.

Actual vs forecasted

Actual: +238k vs 250k forecasted

The following numbers are estimates based on cryosphere today

Bering strait looks to have gained ~90k vs "good"

Hudson strait gained ~130k vs "will continue to gain"

Barents lost ~ (-130k) vs "highly unfavorable"

Okhotsk gained ~80k vs "some gains"

Baffin Bay gained ~50k vs "some gains"

Greenland Sea gained ~5k

For next week, I'm going to experiment with giving hard numbers for each of the above seas. I don't expect them to work out nearly as well as it did last week, but the errors should balance out in the end for my weekly number.

Barents looks to reverse to favorable with very cold air north winds. Bering Strait looks somewhat unfavorable with above average temps and predominantly SE winds in the eastern sea, NE winds in the western sea. Hudson Strait is brutally cold and should finish freezing the 80k or so of open water. Okhotsk is slightly below average with north winds so should gain well. Baffin Bay+labrador coast should gain a lot on the very cold air and huge negative departures.

Total: +310k

Barents: +90k

Bering: -80k

Hudson Strait: +80k

Okhotsk: +105k

Baffin Bay (including labrador coast): +115k

Greenland Sea: +0k

In retrospect, I would probably bump all of these numbers up 10k but I can't change my guess now.

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Current Extent: 12,996,875km2

Daily Gain: 80,312km

Skier...great job on outlining your thoughts. I think we're bound to have a great week with -25C 850mb temperatures over the Sea of Okhotsk, which is largely unfrozen, in the early part of the week; these below average temperatures moderate slightly but it will remain consistently cold over Okhotsk with N/NW flow due to the 990mb low passing under Kamchatka Peninsula and moving towards the Bering Strait. The PV is moving from Northern Canada towards Labrador with -40C 850mb temperatures, so we should see large gains in Hudson Strait, Baffin Bay, and along the Labrador coastline where we are well behind climo due to the -NAO torch this December. Finally, major cold air sitting over the Barents Sea, which lost some ice the last two weeks to strong south winds...as well as cold air over the Fram Strait/Sea of Denmark. All in all, the ridging is perfectly positioned with a warm high pressure over the already frozen Beaufort Sea and many landlocked areas of NW Canada, meaning that the extreme cold is pushed towards the open water on the Atlantic side where the polar vortex has migrated.

Sorry about the addition mistake...always check over my "rapid updates" for errors.

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Hudson strait froze up rapidly the last two days, you can't see it on cryosphere today b/c they haven't updated but you can see it on the jaxa maps for the 28th. Now it's going to come down to okhotsk and the barents outgaining any losses that might occur in the Bering. It will probably slow down some, but I think my 310 may have been conservative.

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Hudson strait froze up rapidly the last two days, you can't see it on cryosphere today b/c they haven't updated but you can see it on the jaxa maps for the 28th. Now it's going to come down to okhotsk and the barents outgaining any losses that might occur in the Bering. It will probably slow down some, but I think my 310 may have been conservative.

I almost wish I had guessed more though I am in great shape to win the week, obviously.

Also, don't forget the gains we may see in Baffin Bay and even more so, along the Labrador coastline. That brutal airmass has just hit the unfrozen waters there in the last day, and the extreme cold looks to intensify as the PV migrates southeast from near Baffin Island to Northern Quebec. 850mb temperatures are around -42C at the core of the vortex with -30C 850s over the Labrador coast, so we should catch up relatively quickly there given the massive deficits accrued during the -NAO period in December. The extreme cold over Canada doesn't seem to be going anywhere soon, as the 0z GEFS show >-5C anomalies across most of Canada in the 10-15 day range as well. We should see freezing in the last unfrozen areas of Baffin Bay, down the Labrador coast, and then into the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

Okhotsk and Barents look great for the next few days as well. We might slow down a bit given losses in the Bering Strait region, but I think the net outcome is going to be very favorable for the cryosphere.

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Current Extent: 13,316,094km2

Daily Gain: 36,719km2

Contest Gain: 399,531km2

Skier will check over the numbers and tally the official results, but it looks as though I won the week after a string of 2nd and 3rd place finishes. To my amateur eye, the ice expanded most near the Labrador coastline and in the Okhotsk Sea, with Hudson Strait also finishing up freezing. We've passed 2006 and 2007 and are now even with last year in the JAXA sea ice extent record.

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