MN Transplant Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just so I don't miss it, going +240 for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Week 19 1/25-2/1 2003: 370,000 2004: 88,438 2005: 132,812 2006: 467,187 2007: 13,593 2008: 63,125 2009: 348,906 2010: 177,343 Average: 207,675 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 +159k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The heck with it, I'm standing pat. 309 K for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcjrsc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 +180k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Current Extent: 12,878,750km2 Daily Gain: 30,469km2 Contest Gain: 197,656km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Prelim of -2k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Current Extent: 12,916,563km2 Daily Gain: 37,813km2 Contest Gain: 235,469km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Current Extent: 12,916,563km2 Daily Gain: 37,813km2 Contest Gain: 235,469km2 Damn close! would have needed a massive revision after that prelim.. almost got it. EDIT: looks like you did the math wrong. The actual number is 237,813 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Week 18 scores, congrats to MN (and myself), very close one between 4 of us, came down to less than 400 sq km! skierinvermont 238000 MN transplant 238000 Nzucker 237000 tacoman 228000 Normal 198000 Consensus 191000 Mallow 186000 winterwxluvr 149000 Roger Smith 38000 Cumulative: skierinvermont 2411000 Normal 2156000 tacoman 1772000 Consensus 1739000 Nzucker 1729000 MN transplant 1598000 grcjrsc 996000 winterwxluvr 922000 Roger Smith 864000 frivolousz21 733000 Mallow 654000 blazess556 71000 BethesdaBoy 64000 Organizing Low 49000 Ytterbium -171000 Average Error (at least 3 weeks): skierinvermont 116056 Normal 130222 tacoman 145765 Consensus 153389 Nzucker 153944 MN transplant 156000 grcjrsc 187750 winterwxluvr 188533 Roger Smith 202000 Mallow 213667 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 +272 for the coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Week 19 nzucker 340k skierinvermont 310k winterwxluvr 309k Roger Smith 272k MN Transplant 240k Normal 208k grcjrsc 180k Mallow 159k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 +340k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 prelim 50k.. off to a nice start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 For my self scoring: +250k The conditions in the Bering Strait area look quite good this week with north to northeast winds and cold air. Okhotsk is not especially cold, but is cooler than last week with a more northerly wind direction (although it starts the week quite warm). That should allow for some gains there especially considering how little ice there is currently. Barents is highly unfavorable with south winds and above average temps, however I don't think we can lose too much more there considering we are now considerably below average there after last week's torch. I think Hudson Strait (and the area just east of there which may not technically be part of the Strait) will continue to gain as they are right on the edge of that very cold canadian air, and we might get some in Baffin Bay as well although it doesn't get as much of the bitter cold. Actual vs forecasted Actual: +238k vs 250k forecasted The following numbers are estimates based on cryosphere today Bering strait looks to have gained ~90k vs "good" Hudson strait gained ~130k vs "will continue to gain" Barents lost ~ (-130k) vs "highly unfavorable" Okhotsk gained ~80k vs "some gains" Baffin Bay gained ~50k vs "some gains" Greenland Sea gained ~5k For next week, I'm going to experiment with giving hard numbers for each of the above seas. I don't expect them to work out nearly as well as it did last week, but the errors should balance out in the end for my weekly number. Barents looks to reverse to favorable with very cold air north winds. Bering Strait looks somewhat unfavorable with above average temps and predominantly SE winds in the eastern sea, NE winds in the western sea. Hudson Strait is brutally cold and should finish freezing the 80k or so of open water. Okhotsk is slightly below average with north winds so should gain well. Baffin Bay+labrador coast should gain a lot on the very cold air and huge negative departures. Total: +310k Barents: +90k Bering: -80k Hudson Strait: +80k Okhotsk: +105k Baffin Bay (including labrador coast): +115k Greenland Sea: +0k In retrospect, I would probably bump all of these numbers up 10k but I can't change my guess now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Current Extent: 12,996,875km2 Daily Gain: 80,312km Skier...great job on outlining your thoughts. I think we're bound to have a great week with -25C 850mb temperatures over the Sea of Okhotsk, which is largely unfrozen, in the early part of the week; these below average temperatures moderate slightly but it will remain consistently cold over Okhotsk with N/NW flow due to the 990mb low passing under Kamchatka Peninsula and moving towards the Bering Strait. The PV is moving from Northern Canada towards Labrador with -40C 850mb temperatures, so we should see large gains in Hudson Strait, Baffin Bay, and along the Labrador coastline where we are well behind climo due to the -NAO torch this December. Finally, major cold air sitting over the Barents Sea, which lost some ice the last two weeks to strong south winds...as well as cold air over the Fram Strait/Sea of Denmark. All in all, the ridging is perfectly positioned with a warm high pressure over the already frozen Beaufort Sea and many landlocked areas of NW Canada, meaning that the extreme cold is pushed towards the open water on the Atlantic side where the polar vortex has migrated. Sorry about the addition mistake...always check over my "rapid updates" for errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 80k final yesterday, 73k prelim today. Going to be a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Current Extent: 13,090,625km2 Daily Gain: 93,750km2 Contest Gain: 174,062km2 Rapid improvements in the cryosphere this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Prelim of 39k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hudson strait froze up rapidly the last two days, you can't see it on cryosphere today b/c they haven't updated but you can see it on the jaxa maps for the 28th. Now it's going to come down to okhotsk and the barents outgaining any losses that might occur in the Bering. It will probably slow down some, but I think my 310 may have been conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hudson strait froze up rapidly the last two days, you can't see it on cryosphere today b/c they haven't updated but you can see it on the jaxa maps for the 28th. Now it's going to come down to okhotsk and the barents outgaining any losses that might occur in the Bering. It will probably slow down some, but I think my 310 may have been conservative. I almost wish I had guessed more though I am in great shape to win the week, obviously. Also, don't forget the gains we may see in Baffin Bay and even more so, along the Labrador coastline. That brutal airmass has just hit the unfrozen waters there in the last day, and the extreme cold looks to intensify as the PV migrates southeast from near Baffin Island to Northern Quebec. 850mb temperatures are around -42C at the core of the vortex with -30C 850s over the Labrador coast, so we should catch up relatively quickly there given the massive deficits accrued during the -NAO period in December. The extreme cold over Canada doesn't seem to be going anywhere soon, as the 0z GEFS show >-5C anomalies across most of Canada in the 10-15 day range as well. We should see freezing in the last unfrozen areas of Baffin Bay, down the Labrador coast, and then into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Okhotsk and Barents look great for the next few days as well. We might slow down a bit given losses in the Bering Strait region, but I think the net outcome is going to be very favorable for the cryosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Current Extent: 13,155,781km2 Daily Gain: 65,156km2 Contest Gain: 239,218km2 Large gains continue, four days remaining in the contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Prelim of +8k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Current Extent: 13,180,625km2 Daily Gain: 24,844km2 Contest Gain: 264,062km2 Tonight's prelim was +28k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Current Extent: 13,232,031km2 Daily Gain: 51,406km2 Contest Gain: 315,468km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Prelim of 20k... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Current Extent: 13,279,375km2 Daily Gain: 47,344km2 Contest Gain: 362,812km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 336 k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Current Extent: 13,316,094km2 Daily Gain: 36,719km2 Contest Gain: 399,531km2 Skier will check over the numbers and tally the official results, but it looks as though I won the week after a string of 2nd and 3rd place finishes. To my amateur eye, the ice expanded most near the Labrador coastline and in the Okhotsk Sea, with Hudson Strait also finishing up freezing. We've passed 2006 and 2007 and are now even with last year in the JAXA sea ice extent record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 +345k for the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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