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Weekly Arctic Sea Ice Contest


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Well hopefully we will have better luck on the new forum. I for one feel I am learning a good deal about how the ice behaves in response to air temperature, winds, SSTs and the behavior of ice in different areas of the arctic as well as arctic geography. Also if you want to join the contest don't worry about the cumulative scores because you can still compare yourself to the rest of the pack with the "average error" scores that I post each week.

Just a quick refresher on the rules..

-Each week you guess the weekly gain in arctic sea ice extent from Tuesday to Tuesday.

-Guesses are rounded to the nearest 1,000 sq km

-Guesses are due by 9pm Wednesdays (before Wednesday's value comes out)

-Actual values are based on Jaxa: http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

-Scoring is based on the formula (250,000 - absolute value(actual-predicted))

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Don't worry I have all the scores and guesses saved.. I know you were all very worried.

Week 8 guesses

MN transplant	400000
grcjrsc         412000
skierinvermont 	420000
Roger Smith  	440000
ElTacoman	460000
Consensus	480000
Nzucker   	490000
MallowTheCloud	505000
winterwxluvr	523000
BethesdaBoy	546000
frivolousz21	599000

We've had 131k in the first 2 days of this week

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47k

Ugh....we should see some MUCH bigger days with -20C 850mb temperatures pressing into the Bering Strait and also arriving in Baffin Bay. We'll see what effect this has on expanding the ice.

Here are the official numbers after three days:

Current Extent: 9,164,375km2

Daily Gain: 46,719km2

Contest Gain: 177,344km2

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Ugh....we should see some MUCH bigger days with -20C 850mb temperatures pressing into the Bering Strait and also arriving in Baffin Bay. We'll see what effect this has on expanding the ice.

Here are the official numbers after three days:

Current Extent: 9,164,375km2

Daily Gain: 46,719km2

Contest Gain: 177,344km2

8K prelim for Nov 13

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Ugh....we should see some MUCH bigger days with -20C 850mb temperatures pressing into the Bering Strait and also arriving in Baffin Bay. We'll see what effect this has on expanding the ice.

Here are the official numbers after three days:

Current Extent: 9,164,375km2

Daily Gain: 46,719km2

Contest Gain: 177,344km2

Current Extent: 9,172,969km2

Daily Gain: 8,594km2

Contest Gain: 185,938km2

Three days remain. We're currently ahead of 2009 and about even with 2006 and 2007, behind the other years.

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Current Extent: 9,172,969km2

Daily Gain: 8,594km2

Contest Gain: 185,938km2

Three days remain. We're currently ahead of 2009 and about even with 2006 and 2007, behind the other years.

Current Extent: 9,209,219km2

Daily Gain: 36,250km2

Contest Gain: 222,188km2

Two days left with small gains continuing....We are still slightly ahead of last year but behind 2007 and 2006 now.

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Here's what's been going on in the Arctic...80-90N temps are solidly below normal now due to the strong PV:

But most of the negative anomalies are near the North Pole and not in the periphery where ice is expected to grow. Major torch in Siberia, by their standards:

Ice is still way behind climo in Baffin Bay, although colder 850s are entering the area of open waters:

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Current Extent: 9,209,219km2

Daily Gain: 36,250km2

Contest Gain: 222,188km2

Two days left with small gains continuing....We are still slightly ahead of last year but behind 2007 and 2006 now.

Current Extent: 9,277,969km2

Daily Gain: 68,750km2

Contest Gain: 290,938km2

That was yesterday's gain. Prelim of +53k for today.

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Prelim of +53k for today.

Good.. that should bring us close to the lower guesses. Worked out similar to what we were thinking with gains at the start and end of the week and a lull in the middle.. makes perfect sense. Northerly winds in Baffin Bay the first few days expanded the ice there... then we hit that lull. Then the cold moved back in and the gains picked up. The gains in the Bering straight were slightly less than I expected but everything else makes sense. There seems to be a tongue of warm water.. you can often pick up on that when there is a very sharp boundary to the ice and it's just refusing to advance.. usually that's a bad sign of some warmer waters.

working on the gains for past years.. will post shortly

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Good.. that should bring us close to the lower guesses. Worked out similar to what we were thinking with gains at the start and end of the week and a lull in the middle.. makes perfect sense. Northerly winds in Baffin Bay the first few days expanded the ice there... then we hit that lull. Then the cold moved back in and the gains picked up.

working on the gains for past years.. will post shortly

Meh, I am still going to be nearly 100k off assuming a reasonable revision, although it won't change the overall standings that much. The problem with this year's ice is the lack of consistency, we get some good spurts but the bad days are just useless. The Kara also picked up some ice this week although the deficits in Baffin Bay, which should be frozen almost to the end of Baffin Island but isn't, and in Foxe Basin, which should be partly frozen but only has shore ice, are terrible. It looks as if we're slightly ahead of 2007 and 2006 and even with 2009 now, so we did pick up a bit of ground this week but nothing great.

Next week looks OK since the Kara Sea should freeze completely with -20C 850mb temperatures, and that is a good chunk of open water that remains. We also should see some modest gains in the Barents Sea (very cold air moving with -25C 850s) and the narrow northern areas of Hudson Bay where there will also be -20C 850s for much of the week. Ice in Foxe Basin should expand a lot with the PV moving into Canada and dumping some cold air, especially into the more vulnerable southern half of the Basin. I think we'll pick up ground on other years, but still be well behind long-term climo of course.

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Week 8 scores:

Congrats to MN Transplant on Week 8, and tacoman moves into second on the cumulative. Unfortunately the week ended up almost exactly at normal which didn't help our relative scores vs climo. Next week I'll get around to editing everybody's name to their AmericanWx name if it's been changed. NZucker is keeping the caps though.

Normal		233000
MN transplant	210000
grcjrsc		198000
skierinvermont 	190000
Roger Smith  	170000
ElTacoman	150000
Consensus	130000
NZucker         120000
MallowTheCloud	105000
winterwxluvr	87000
frivolousz21	11000

Cumulative Scores:

skierinvermont 	834000
Normal		792000
ElTacoman	536000
Nzucker     	523000
Consensus	522000
MN transplant	493000
frivolousz21	383000
grcjrsc		366000
blazess556	71000
winterwxluvr	51000
Organizing Low	49000
Roger Smith  	42000
Ytterbium   	-171000
MallowTheCloud	-239000

Average Error:

skierinvermont 	145750
Normal		151000
ElTacoman	173429
blazess556	179000
Nzucker		184625
Consensus	184750
MN transplant	188375
frivolousz21	202125
grcjrsc		204250
Organizing Low	225500
winterwxluvr	239800
Roger Smith  	244750
MallowTheCloud	279875
Ytterbium   	421000

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Good Morning All;

Sorry I missed this week. Yesterday was very hectic, a local firefighter was killed in the line of duty on Saturday. His funeral was yesterday and I was being a photographer at the funeral yesterday, so I missed everthing I was supposed to do. Glad to see we got the contest moved over to America WX.

Have a great week.

George

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