skierinvermont Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Well hopefully we will have better luck on the new forum. I for one feel I am learning a good deal about how the ice behaves in response to air temperature, winds, SSTs and the behavior of ice in different areas of the arctic as well as arctic geography. Also if you want to join the contest don't worry about the cumulative scores because you can still compare yourself to the rest of the pack with the "average error" scores that I post each week. Just a quick refresher on the rules.. -Each week you guess the weekly gain in arctic sea ice extent from Tuesday to Tuesday. -Guesses are rounded to the nearest 1,000 sq km -Guesses are due by 9pm Wednesdays (before Wednesday's value comes out) -Actual values are based on Jaxa: http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm -Scoring is based on the formula (250,000 - absolute value(actual-predicted)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Don't worry I have all the scores and guesses saved.. I know you were all very worried. Week 8 guesses MN transplant 400000 grcjrsc 412000 skierinvermont 420000 Roger Smith 440000 ElTacoman 460000 Consensus 480000 Nzucker 490000 MallowTheCloud 505000 winterwxluvr 523000 BethesdaBoy 546000 frivolousz21 599000 We've had 131k in the first 2 days of this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Aww, I was hoping the scores were lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Nobody guessed that Easternus would freeze before Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 47k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Glad this place is up and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 47k Ugh....we should see some MUCH bigger days with -20C 850mb temperatures pressing into the Bering Strait and also arriving in Baffin Bay. We'll see what effect this has on expanding the ice. Here are the official numbers after three days: Current Extent: 9,164,375km2 Daily Gain: 46,719km2 Contest Gain: 177,344km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Ugh....we should see some MUCH bigger days with -20C 850mb temperatures pressing into the Bering Strait and also arriving in Baffin Bay. We'll see what effect this has on expanding the ice. Here are the official numbers after three days: Current Extent: 9,164,375km2 Daily Gain: 46,719km2 Contest Gain: 177,344km2 8K prelim for Nov 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceicebyebye Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 8K prelim for Nov 13 Think that might be the final.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Anybody hear from MN transplant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Ugh....we should see some MUCH bigger days with -20C 850mb temperatures pressing into the Bering Strait and also arriving in Baffin Bay. We'll see what effect this has on expanding the ice. Here are the official numbers after three days: Current Extent: 9,164,375km2 Daily Gain: 46,719km2 Contest Gain: 177,344km2 Current Extent: 9,172,969km2 Daily Gain: 8,594km2 Contest Gain: 185,938km2 Three days remain. We're currently ahead of 2009 and about even with 2006 and 2007, behind the other years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Current Extent: 9,172,969km2 Daily Gain: 8,594km2 Contest Gain: 185,938km2 Three days remain. We're currently ahead of 2009 and about even with 2006 and 2007, behind the other years. Current Extent: 9,209,219km2 Daily Gain: 36,250km2 Contest Gain: 222,188km2 Two days left with small gains continuing....We are still slightly ahead of last year but behind 2007 and 2006 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Here's what's been going on in the Arctic...80-90N temps are solidly below normal now due to the strong PV: But most of the negative anomalies are near the North Pole and not in the periphery where ice is expected to grow. Major torch in Siberia, by their standards: Ice is still way behind climo in Baffin Bay, although colder 850s are entering the area of open waters: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Current Extent: 9,209,219km2 Daily Gain: 36,250km2 Contest Gain: 222,188km2 Two days left with small gains continuing....We are still slightly ahead of last year but behind 2007 and 2006 now. Current Extent: 9,277,969km2 Daily Gain: 68,750km2 Contest Gain: 290,938km2 That was yesterday's gain. Prelim of +53k for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Prelim of +53k for today. Good.. that should bring us close to the lower guesses. Worked out similar to what we were thinking with gains at the start and end of the week and a lull in the middle.. makes perfect sense. Northerly winds in Baffin Bay the first few days expanded the ice there... then we hit that lull. Then the cold moved back in and the gains picked up. The gains in the Bering straight were slightly less than I expected but everything else makes sense. There seems to be a tongue of warm water.. you can often pick up on that when there is a very sharp boundary to the ice and it's just refusing to advance.. usually that's a bad sign of some warmer waters. working on the gains for past years.. will post shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Week 9 Gain (11/16-11/23) 2002: 527,657 2003: 314,688 2004: 359,687 2005: 577,813 2006: 36,250 2007: 483,281 2008: 515,156 2009: 600,000 Average: 426,817 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 +490k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Good.. that should bring us close to the lower guesses. Worked out similar to what we were thinking with gains at the start and end of the week and a lull in the middle.. makes perfect sense. Northerly winds in Baffin Bay the first few days expanded the ice there... then we hit that lull. Then the cold moved back in and the gains picked up. working on the gains for past years.. will post shortly Meh, I am still going to be nearly 100k off assuming a reasonable revision, although it won't change the overall standings that much. The problem with this year's ice is the lack of consistency, we get some good spurts but the bad days are just useless. The Kara also picked up some ice this week although the deficits in Baffin Bay, which should be frozen almost to the end of Baffin Island but isn't, and in Foxe Basin, which should be partly frozen but only has shore ice, are terrible. It looks as if we're slightly ahead of 2007 and 2006 and even with 2009 now, so we did pick up a bit of ground this week but nothing great. Next week looks OK since the Kara Sea should freeze completely with -20C 850mb temperatures, and that is a good chunk of open water that remains. We also should see some modest gains in the Barents Sea (very cold air moving with -25C 850s) and the narrow northern areas of Hudson Bay where there will also be -20C 850s for much of the week. Ice in Foxe Basin should expand a lot with the PV moving into Canada and dumping some cold air, especially into the more vulnerable southern half of the Basin. I think we'll pick up ground on other years, but still be well behind long-term climo of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 +625k for me then ... agree with the above ... Foxe looks ready to freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 461 K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Current Extent: 9,277,969km2 Daily Gain: 68,750km2 Contest Gain: 290,938km2 That was yesterday's gain. Prelim of +53k for today. The latest value : 9,347,344 km2 (November 16, 2010) Current Extent: 9,347,344 km2 Daily Gain: 69,375km2 Contest Gain: 360,313km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 +510 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 +555k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Week 8 scores: Congrats to MN Transplant on Week 8, and tacoman moves into second on the cumulative. Unfortunately the week ended up almost exactly at normal which didn't help our relative scores vs climo. Next week I'll get around to editing everybody's name to their AmericanWx name if it's been changed. NZucker is keeping the caps though. Normal 233000 MN transplant 210000 grcjrsc 198000 skierinvermont 190000 Roger Smith 170000 ElTacoman 150000 Consensus 130000 NZucker 120000 MallowTheCloud 105000 winterwxluvr 87000 frivolousz21 11000 Cumulative Scores: skierinvermont 834000 Normal 792000 ElTacoman 536000 Nzucker 523000 Consensus 522000 MN transplant 493000 frivolousz21 383000 grcjrsc 366000 blazess556 71000 winterwxluvr 51000 Organizing Low 49000 Roger Smith 42000 Ytterbium -171000 MallowTheCloud -239000 Average Error: skierinvermont 145750 Normal 151000 ElTacoman 173429 blazess556 179000 Nzucker 184625 Consensus 184750 MN transplant 188375 frivolousz21 202125 grcjrsc 204250 Organizing Low 225500 winterwxluvr 239800 Roger Smith 244750 MallowTheCloud 279875 Ytterbium 421000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 515k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 skierinvermont says 400k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 +26k prelim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcjrsc Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Good Morning All; Sorry I missed this week. Yesterday was very hectic, a local firefighter was killed in the line of duty on Saturday. His funeral was yesterday and I was being a photographer at the funeral yesterday, so I missed everthing I was supposed to do. Glad to see we got the contest moved over to America WX. Have a great week. George Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Current Extent: 9,383,125km2 Daily Gain: 35,781km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Week 9 guesses: No MN or George this week anyone seen MN? skierinvermont 400k Normal 427k winterwxluvr 461k tacoman25 490k FrivolousZ21 510k nzucker 515k Mallow 555k Roger Smith 625k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.