J.Spin Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... I haven’t seen them posted yet, so I grabbed the first round of BTV storm graphics and added them below – it’s interesting to have that gap in the western parts of Addison and Rutland Counties. We’re not too far out from the event now, but with the marginal temperatures at various elevations, it seems like there’s plenty of fine tuning to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 First guess without much 0z data.. updates tomorrow...highest amounts above 1500' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 That's just a difference of opinion between ALB and BTV I guess...... or lack of coordination in their adjoining zones. I haven’t seen them posted yet, so I grabbed the first round of BTV storm graphics and added them below – it’s interesting to have that gap in the western parts of Addison and Rutland Counties. We’re not too far out from the event now, but with the marginal temperatures at various elevations, it seems like there’s plenty of fine tuning to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 That's just a difference of opinion between ALB and BTV I guess...... or lack of coordination in their adjoining zones. Bennington County has higher terrain and cannot be broken into two zones I believe... the lower Champlain Valley sort of pinches off there south of Rutland anyway as you start to head up in terrain towards Lake George area. Plus, those two half-counties are very low and flat, and get downsloped from all directions but due north. I actually think it makes sense from a topographic stand-point and knowing how the NWS offices have their zones broken up. Anyway, cold night as its 17/14 here right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 WOW...Gray has certainly kicked it up a notch!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 WOW...Gray has certainly kicked it up a notch!!! Absolutely. I was NOT expecting a map like that when I turned in last night. Looking like I might have an extra vacation day for the holiday weekend due to school/daycare closure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Absolutely. I was NOT expecting a map like that when I turned in last night. Looking like I might have an extra vacation day for the holiday weekend due to school/daycare closure. Awesome! Like that gardient between Cape Elizabeth and PWM. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Awesome! Like that gardient between Cape Elizabeth and PWM. lol Hard to believe but there is a possibility that I'll see two double-digit snowfalls before Thanksgiving. Even harder to believe that there'll be none left on the ground when December starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 i fully expect 6" of glop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Made it to 10F. I imagine single digits in the valley. Silver lining to everything this morning. looks like 4-7" for upper elevations here, beggars can't be choosers so.... PF- here's our lonely strip of white so you don't feel alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Nice shot of Jay Peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 WOW...Gray has certainly kicked it up a notch!!! Wow, bit of a difference across the CT River. Got down to 16° at my house this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It was 17.6F and dropping when I left the house this morning around 6:00 AM, so this will certainly come in as the coldest morning of the season at our location thus far. I flipped on The Weather Channel before I left the house, and was surprised to see that the local forecast called for 6 to 10 inches at the Winter Weather Advisory level, but after reading the BTV forecast discussion, they spoke of the potential for mixing keeping totals down. The current point and click for our area down in the valley calls for 4 to 9 inches of snow, but doesn’t mention any mixing at this point. Today: Sunny, with a high near 34. Calm wind. Tonight: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 24. South wind at 6 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 35. North wind between 3 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. North wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%. I didn’t really see much of a bump in the point forecasts for the local mountains, so we’ll have to see if that gets refined for the higher elevations. I see that mreaves added the projected accumulations from BTV so I’ve added the latest weather advisories map below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Chilly morning, 11-12F, nice springboard for tomorrow's event. GYX snow tool has 13" for LEW/AUG and 12" for Rt 2 corridor, RUM to Skowhegan. Probably the +SN (MBY progged for 9" from 7A-1P tomorrow) will keep the deer from moving much, but I'll be out there looking anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Cold morning here as we broke 20F getting down to 17.2F for the coldest morning this season, Models have come in colder and further south over the last couple of days, So lets post snow totals in here.. Got down to 16° at my house. BTV snow graphic says 4.3 in for MPV and a little more over towards Allenson. Would like a few more of these cold mornings to firm up the ground before snow comes but sounds like it's all going away soon afterwards anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 A very nice discussion from CAR this morning. They are holding off on pulling the trigger on warnings. CONCERNS EXIST IN TRANSFORMING ANY OF THE PRE-EXISTING WATCHES TO WRNGS ATTM. ONE DRAWBACK TO THIS SYSTEM IS IT'S SPEED AND THE FACT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY BACKSIDE DEFORMATION BANDING OF PRECIP. THIS WILL MEAN THAT MDT TO HVY PRECIP WILL ABRUPTLY END WHEN THE GOOD DYNAMICS MOVE E OF THE FA LATE WED AFTN AND ERLY EVE...ENDING ACCUMULATING SNFL. THE MEAN OF PAST ANALOGS TO THIS XPCTD EVENT REVEALED SYSTEMS THAT EVOLVED IN FAIRLY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC REGIMES AND TOOK SIMILAR TRACKS MSLY ONLY RESULTED IN MAX SNFL AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH END OF ADV CRITERIA FOR OUR FA. ANALOGS MEANS...HOWEVER WILL NOT ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ELEMENTS THAT COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED BANDING AND RESULTANT HIGHER SNFL RATES...SO A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNFL OVR SRN PTNS OF OUR REGION IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY. ANOTHER DRAWBACK TO WRNG CRITERIA SNFL WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW SN RATIOS DUE TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABV FZG TEMPS IN THE LOWEST 1 TO 2 KFT...SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST AREAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Well, I've been in one of those modes where I haven't been paying attention to the forecasts at all, but instead just taking the days as they come--watching the weather around me certainly but not reading the discussions, forecasts, etc. It's hard to avoid completely though, what with listening to the radio, talking with people and whatnot. So, I had an idea that something migh be brewing. This morning my cursor wavered over my bookmarked point-n-click forecast, succumbed to temptation and in the process found a WWA place, hey what do ya know? Coldest morning of the season so far today--bottomed out at 16F and quite frozen ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Got down to 16° at my house. BTV snow graphic says 4.3 in for MPV and a little more over towards Allenson. Would like a few more of these cold mornings to firm up the ground before snow comes but sounds like it's all going away soon afterwards anyway. Yeah temps look to be in the mid 40's later this week so the melting process will be on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This is painful for me. SO jealous. Have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This is painful for me. SO jealous. Have fun. Thanks Jay, You would have been in a prime spot for this one at IZG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 If MBY gets what GYX currently progs, it will take more than a few mid 40s (with late fall sun angle) to melt all of it. Only once in 13 yr have I carried Nov snowpack thru the winter, in 02-03 (a mediocre winter for snow, but my coldest, and thus my greatest length of 1"+ snowcover.) It certainly will be a slower process, It will be colder with having a snow pack to deal with.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VtWxWatcher Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Bottomed out at 13.8F around 7am this morning, bounced back to 35F since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 ALB going agressive in the southen dacks: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ042&warncounty=NYC113&firewxzone=NYZ042&local_place1=4+Miles+SSW+Chestertown+NY&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 ALB going agressive in the southen dacks: http://forecast.weat...r+Storm+Warning I think they get smacked pretty good... Gore should do nicely. 12z EURO actually has the heaviest fall rates occurring from the southern Adirondacks eastward towards central VT/Killington area. That region gets lit up as the low slows and transfers energy... the precp sort of stalls in that area for a couple hours before surging northward again. Everyone's been talking about NH/ME but I think there's a good band of 8-12" that starts in the southern 'Dacks and heads through Lake George into Central VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like BTV has decided to bump it up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Shame I'm going to miss it tomorrow. Headed south to CT tonight to the inlaws. We'll be down there tonight, tomorrow and coming back up on Thursday evening. I have a friend doing my obs for me, so I'll have to live vicariously.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like BTV has decided to bump it up some. I see, thanks for the update. It’s pretty similar to the last round in our area along the Chittenden/Washington County line, but they’ve definitely filled out the rest of the area with higher numbers. Some Vermont areas have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings as well, and I’ve added the updated advisories map below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Our local zoomed in snowfall totals from BTV.... I'd take 6" and run. My call for here is 4-8" and 5-9" on the mountain. In November and this pattern, it'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Very SLOW ride into work this morning. As of 0545 we had 5.5" with mod snow and some ice pellets mixed in and a temp of 31F. Hopefully someone in the family will go out and measure every once and awhile at home. Certainly more ice pellets mixed in here at work in Lebanon, NH. Looks to be about 6-8" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 6.5" at 6:30am up at the ski resort base (1,550ft)... just dumping 1"/hr or even a bit better now. Perfect early dawn feel of a snowstorm on a ski morning... beeping wails of the snowcats as they back up is the only sound amid the falling flakes. That’s great to hear PF, glad the mountain is getting in on the goods as well! It’s too bad you guys are opening though, with just the couple of trails this new snow won’t last more than a few minutes – especially with the capacity of the new quad. I’m assuming nothing has been made over at Spruce yet? This new snow would go great with a base. What a great day for the opening ceremony on the new quad though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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