powderfreak Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Seems a bit early to go to likely POPS for Tues night and Wednesday... but I guess BTV is probably right that something will happen during that time frame. For the mountains its snow likely and in the valleys their current forecast is snow ---> rain ----> snow. Tuesday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tuesday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%. THE MAIN PROBLEM PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THERE ARE STILL RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DUE TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER TROUGH. GFS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH UPPER TROUGH AND THE MOVEMENT OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FROM OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN EARLIER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE TIMES OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF WINDS UP PHASING NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM...WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF AND SURFACE LOW NOT EXITING SOUTHERN ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO GO WITH A BLEND/COMPROMISE...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A RATHER SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT...ESPECIALLY IF SLOWER EVOLVING ECMWF CORRECT. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE ON QPF IS FOR BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS. PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO MARGINAL TEMP PROFILES INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW...BUT THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW. POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT IT JUST RAIN/SNOW AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE...ITS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY SNOW AMOUNTS. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP ADVISED OF LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE COMING DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Some shots from this afternoon... if mother nature won't supply it, man's invention of snowmaking will suffice for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 This deserves a "yikes" this time of year... heading into Thanksgiving with nothing on the mountain. The top 1,800 vertical feet are covered, its that bottom 300ft that's the problem on the snowmaking run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 This deserves a "yikes" this time of year... heading into Thanksgiving with nothing on the mountain. Freak, Thats awful.....boo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Freak, Thats awful.....boo The awful thing is its better than 2009-2010 when we didn't open till December 6th... and that turned out to be a record winter for the mid-Atlantic, haha. Only 246" up here, over 75" lower than normal. Hopefully we aren't headed to that same fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 Mild morning out there--mid 30s and warming, after dropping back down into the upper 20s last night before bed. Didn't hear it, but we had a shower at some point in the early morning hours as things are wet this morning and there was a whole 0.01" in the bucket. Been a very dry November here. Only at 0.47" for the whole month. I'm now at 46.96" for the year--50" still within reach. After such a lousy October, despite winter taking its sweet time getting here, I have to say that November has been quite nice and I've been appreciating the heck out of it. I won't start getting antsy until after Thanksgiving. We might be looking at something like we had for the winter of 06-07 this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 This deserves a "yikes" this time of year... heading into Thanksgiving with nothing on the mountain. The top 1,800 vertical feet are covered, its that bottom 300ft that's the problem on the snowmaking run. How many trails are typically open at stowe this time of year? Is management freaking given the potential of large losses in revenue for t-day wknd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 How many trails are typically open at stowe this time of year? Is management freaking given the potential of large losses in revenue for t-day wknd? Its really not as bad as I make it sound... I just want to go skiing. We typically only have one top-to-bottom route open but will have a few extra trail segments available at the top half this time of year. Its usually like 2, to maybe 3 options available on the top 750 vertical feet, but then it all funnels into 1 route for the bottom 1,250ft. This is primarily a function of having a lot more time for snowmaking on the upper half. We call it the ribbon of death on the bottom half as everyone ends up on that one route and it gets icy fast with a lot of very hard objects lining the trail (trees, rocks, snowmaking equipment, etc). And management isn't freaking out yet... not for another week to 10 days until we can see the pattern out towards Xmas. This place loses money the first two weeks of the season pretty much... mid-week business early in the season is typically a lot more employees than paying customers. We've been dealing with this a lot the past 5 years or so... November just isn't as much of a winter month as we'd like to think. Two years ago we opened on December 6th... back in Nov '06 we opened for three days then closed for 10 days and didn't reopen till after the first week of December. That winter was an abortion until Valentines Day '07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Its pretty nasty out there right now... I'm at the resort and the wind is roaring with light rain falling. Weather station at 1,600ft in the base is a mild 48F but west wind of 29G34. Summit weather station showing 34G54 and 36F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 ... November just isn't as much of a winter month as we'd like to think. This is why I, living at a humble 371', am not distraught over the lack of snow so far. Usually have to wait until early December to start the pack in these parts and last year it wasn't until Boxing Day that things got into high gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Man the NAM is going to full-on snowstorm... This is the 06z print-out for Montpelier/MPV.... a solid warning snowstorm. The 12z run is even better with over 1.25" QPF as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Man the NAM is going to full-on snowstorm... This is the 06z print-out for Montpelier/MPV.... a solid warning snowstorm. The 12z run is even better with over 1.25" QPF as snow. lol ... can't believe you're pulling out the coolwx weenie graphic, but ok. It does look wintry in your back 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Man the NAM is going to full-on snowstorm... This is the 06z print-out for Montpelier/MPV.... a solid warning snowstorm. The 12z run is even better with over 1.25" QPF as snow. I'm Ed Vallee and I approve this message! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I seems like the models are starting to come to an agreement on where that low is going to track. The Northern steam gets involved just enough to shove the 850ULL just south of the region and basically (pending the EURO) gives northern VT, NH and interior ME and nice warning snow storm (6-12"). Any change to rain really seems to be south of a line from RUT-LEB-MWN valley right now. Great, great news for the ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 lol ... can't believe you're pulling out the coolwx weenie graphic, but ok. It does look wintry in your back 40. Might as well go all out and start throwing some clown maps out........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 lol ... can't believe you're pulling out the coolwx weenie graphic, but ok. It does look wintry in your back 40. Dude we are grasping at anything right now... haha. Thermal profiles are cold enough for snow so that's good enough for me. Our snowmaking is blasting away right outside my window here...and its been going between 31-33F but wet bulbs are still mid 20s at 1,500-1,600ft. Either way this is very expensive snow and given the roar going on outside here right now, there's an awful lot of compressed air and not a lot of water coming out of those guns. Desperate times though call for desperate measures, cost be darned, our new motto is "if its white, its right." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Might as well go all out and start throwing some clown maps out........ I might sell a body part right now for 10-12" even if it melts in 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I might sell a body part right now for 10-12" even if it melts in 4 days. Annie Cheney wrote a book titled Body Brokers: Inside America's Underground Trade in Human Remains, which chronicles the cost of body parts on the market. CNBC did a report on what different body parts are worth after death: Corneas: $6,000/pair Head (intact): $6,000 Tendon: $1,000 Spine: $900 Knee: $650 (for one) Brain: $600 Shoulder: $500 Heart: $500 Kidney: $300-$500 Hand + Forearm: $385 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Might as well go all out and start throwing some clown maps out........ 16-18" for MBY. LTMRB! (laughing 'till my ribs break) Of course, the same run on gfs has me at 2-3", which seems a bit more sane. Edit, after reading the storm thread and seeing the GYX WS watch: Only one November storm 4" or greater IMBY in 13 yr, while I've had 2 in Oct. Seems illogical that Oct should have more; maybe this event will correct that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 6-12 higher terrain of ADK and Green spine from Kmart north. Jay peak might catch a little more. Maybe upwards of 14. Heavy stuff. Good for early season skiing. Sorry Mom and Dad, Turkey will have to wait. I'm going skinning up whiteface. That new snow isn't going to ski it's self! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 NYZ028-030-031-034-035-VTZ001>008-010-012-016>019-220900- /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0010.111123T0500Z-111124T0500Z/ EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX- EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX- WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-WINDSOR- EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLATTSBURGH...SARANAC LAKE... TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY... TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT... ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY... MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...SPRINGFIELD... WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL... BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON 255 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK. * HAZARD TYPES...A MIX OF RAIN AND HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN BACK TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS ON THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY. * WINDS...EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON WEDNESDAY. * VISIBILITIES...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 looks like I'll be trading in the rifle for skis on Thurs morning bottom is dropping out on the temps tonight, just slid under 20F, hoping for a 10F come AM nice to see some blue on the NWS map up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 We will see if the south trend stops or continues on the 0z model suite tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Some snowmaking pictures from today... coldest day of the season so far. High was 34F in the base area but only briefly... it was 31-32F most of the afternoon. With dry air and low wet bulbs, snowmaking had no problem operating with temps near freezing. There was an all out assault on the lower mountain with every gun possible lit up from the base of the lift back up the trail. Ground blizzard raging on the trails heading up out of the base area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Cold night out, down to 29.7F here in Rindge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Cold night out, down to 29.7F here in Rindge. Yeah 23F here at 7pm and I think Borderwx said he was already below 20F a little while ago. Gonna be chilly to start the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 figures, the coldest night of the season so far and my ISS temp sensor battery runs out of juice on my davis. I seem to replace the battery about every 6-8 months, which seems too much. I'm wondering if the solar panel is to blame. when it was new, the 1st backup battery lasted almost 2 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I've been French kissing the SREFs all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I've been French kissing the SREFs all day. Yeah they are a good 50 miles south of where the best snowfall axis was lining up at 00z last night... the biggest question mark zone now is the western ME mountains, back across northern NH and northern VT. Those areas had very high probs this morning but its definitely shifted south into your neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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