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NNE Late Fall & Early Winter


Allenson

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Now I haven't looked at any soundings yet

You know I have and It. Is. On.

The GFS is showing 85+ % saturation from 900mb thru 700mb for the BTV region. Omega is the classic bubble with the center of lift right between 900 and 800mb and temps are perfect for HUGE dendrite growth. Like -12 to -16 C.

I have a boner for next week.

but in my experience this is the "model signal" we see for these events with very light QPF amounts on the panels and steady NW winds. The duration of this looks to be the more promising aspect as this is being modeled as a 24 hour type event.

I couldn't agree more. Game on.

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Driving by a local pond today I saw a kid with hockey stick in hand chasing a puck around, so at least there are some winter activities to be had now. And it appears there will be tons of ice-creating weather to be had near-term. Good for the anglers and aspiring hockey players, I guess.

Going to build me an Ice Boat........ :lol:

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You know I have and It. Is. On.

The GFS is showing 85+ % saturation from 900mb thru 700mb for the BTV region. Omega is the classic bubble with the center of lift right between 900 and 800mb and temps are perfect for HUGE dendrite growth. Like -12 to -16 C.

I have a boner for next week.

I couldn't agree more. Game on.

You're killing me. I absolutely have to go home to ny monday night for work.

The snow today was great. I think the first half was denser but the top 6" was flat out blower pow. After the bulk of the accumulations we had a couple hours of flat opaque crystals. Seen that before when its really cold. Fun skiing this morning to say the least. And it was beautiful. Didnt feel cold at all.

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I haven't looked at this next event much but I am getting very interested in the early next week cold shot. This has the potential to be another significant upslope snow event for the usual suspects. The last few runs of the GFS have been hammering home this point with long duration moist, W to NNW flow, strong CAA bringing in good snow growth temperatures in the low level lift region from topography.

This certain bears watching in my mind as I think we could get another decent dump out of this late Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

12z GFS showing the favorable position of the surface low off to our NW with a strong cold shot moving down the backside.

Upslope snow is in progress by 15z Monday.

12 hours later at 3z Tuesday its ripping.

Tuesday morning at 9z its still snowing.

Finally starts to cut out around 15z Tuesday but I bet with that very cold flow every little bit of moisture will get squeezed out so I bet we keep light snow going on the summits through Tuesday.

Now I haven't looked at any soundings yet but in my experience this is the "model signal" we see for these events with very light QPF amounts on the panels and steady NW winds. The duration of this looks to be the more promising aspect as this is being modeled as a 24 hour type event.

I know this probably interests only the same 5 people but there's really not much else to talk about, lol. It is certainly something to watch though for the ski resorts, skiers/riders, and anyone that lives in the communities on either side of the Green Mountain Spine.

Yes, this is a definite model signal for upslope. I think many of the same areas are going to get smoked again as the models usually cannot adequately forecast the localized enhancement. Looks like the GFS is trying to even get into S VT and the Berks for a time. Not sure how much of it we'll get, but anytime the models show that light green shading down into this area, I'm interested. If it occurs, it will probably be much shorter in duration compared to N VT, but this winter I'll take anything.

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Looks like the low for tonight is nudging east on the models. Rain is out of my forecast now and WWAs are up. Maybe I can pick up an inch of snow and some slop to top it off tonight and tomorrow. Better than the snow changing quickly to rain that I was anticipating yesterday.

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Yes, this is a definite model signal for upslope. I think many of the same areas are going to get smoked again as the models usually cannot adequately forecast the localized enhancement. Looks like the GFS is trying to even get into S VT and the Berks for a time. Not sure how much of it we'll get, but anytime the models show that light green shading down into this area, I'm interested. If it occurs, it will probably be much shorter in duration compared to N VT, but this winter I'll take anything.

LOL that's my "first look" signal, too. Just loop the QPF maps and if the large scale models show even light measurable with NW it means that there will be some response from the mountains...

Usually in larger events the western slope snow band stretches way down into the Berkshires... but I also like that prior to NW flow we get a long period of cold westerly flow that should entrain some moisture from the Great Lakes region. That's where the Berkshires can really do good with snow bands coming off Ontario down the Mohawk Valley and upsloping into the terrain east of Albany. There were a few times growing up I remember having absolutely no snow in the Hudson Valley but then going skiing at Jiminy Peak in like 6-8" of fluffy snow.

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Few weenie snow showers around this morning. Got down to 4f last night, up to 13 now...

Ice-ice-baby?

tropical down there Allenson :)

3rd sub zero in a row, but just barely -1F. up to 4F now (lowest so far was christmas eve -9F). we get a run of -20's and 30's this winter I will be jump strarting the car, she is already moaning pretty hard.

anyone else notice how low the moon was hanging last night?

finally get to the Mts today. try to get some pics up later.

nice pics PF, looking good down that way

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Steady light snow falling now. Accumulating to boot!

tropical down there Allenson :)

2cd sub zero in a row, but just barely -1F. up to 4F now (lowest so far was christmas eve -9F). we get a run of -20's and 30's this winter I will be jump strarting the car, she is already moaning pretty hard.

anyone else notice how low the moon was hanging last night?

Clouds rolled overhead some time last night and put a cap on things.

We had a -2F on Christmas Eve--our only sub-zero and certainly the coldest of the season. We've had a lot of single digits above though and with only a few inches on the ground, my frost depth gauge is now reading 6" of frozen ground.

I feel terrible starting the truck on those real cold mornings. Creak-creak, groan...

Indeed, saw the sliver moon last night through the bare trees. Even though it's small and low right now, it was bright enough to cast wee moon shadows through the hardwoods and onto the snow. It's getting bigger now and will be fully fat in 10 days or so. Love those bright moon-lit nights with snow otg. Driving with the headlights off and no headlamp needed to fetch wood... ;)

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With no snowcover and bitter temps next week it oughtta be pretty thick come next Friday. Dryslot can do doughnuts out on Long Lake on his sled.

I don't know if I'd call a couple days with highs in the low/mid 20s "bitter" for Maine in January, but hopefully this modest stretch of cool days and cold nights will thicken things up. We need to have something around here that looks winter-like...

Meanwhile, it sure has that "gonna snow" look and feel out there this morning. If I hadn't been following the board or reading any forecasts I'd think we were on the verge of a nice little event.

Question for a met (or anyone else who may know): What are PWM's snow futility records for Dec., Jan., and the season as a whole? I've searched the climate info on the GYX site, along with other online sources, and haven't found anything.

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With no snowcover and bitter temps next week it oughtta be pretty thick come next Friday. Dryslot can do doughnuts out on Long Lake on his sled.

lol, Thats the reason my track is studded so i don't do donuts on ice, Can get hairy on icy downhills heading into some sharp corners...

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